In 2016, the directorial debut of Garth Davis was Lion and it earned an impressive six Oscar nominations. His follow-up is an ambitious one – Biblical drama MaryMagdalene. The film casts previous nominees Rooney Mara in the title role with Joaquin Phoenix portraying Jesus.
Anything featuring this director, the subject matter, and the leads is bound to lead to Oscar curiosity. Yet buzz out today strongly suggests otherwise. Reviews have been rather weak with one major trade publication deeming it a sophomore slump.
While Phoenix has been singled out for his performance, he is far more likely to garner a nod for other pictures he’s got in the 2018 hopper. They are Don’tWorry, HeWon’tGetFaronFoot and YouWereNeverReallyHere and they’ve already been covered on the blog.
Besides the unimpressed critical reaction, there are other issues. While Magdalene is scheduled to roll out internationally in various countries in the coming days and weeks, it’s U.S. distribution is uncertain. The pic was originally scheduled for release from the beleaguered Weinstein Company and is currently without a release date.
There is one possible exception to its Academy chances. The film is composed by Johann Johannson, a previous nominee for TheTheoryofEverything and Sicario. Mr. Johannson died unexpectedly on February 9 and there could perhaps be a push to honor him posthumously.
Bottom line: don’t look for MaryMagdalene to have any real impact come Oscar time next year.
Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.
I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I’m not perfect… and I certainly won’t be. I’ll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.
Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:
Best Picture
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actor
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Best Actress
Nominees:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name
RUNNER-UP: Molly’s Game
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Coco
RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult
RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus
RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread
RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Wonder
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
PREDICTED WINNER: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
RUNNER-UP: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:
4 Wins
The Shape of Water
3 Wins
Dunkirk
2 Wins
Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049
1 Win
I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall
Marvel’s Black Panther should continue its momentous run atop the box office as two newbies compete for action fan attention. They are Red Sparrow with Jennifer Lawrence and Death Wish starring Bruce Willis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Not long ago, I might have estimated Red Sparrow would easily top Death Wish in their head to head. However, I’m beginning to believe it might be a fairly close race for the runner-up spot to Panther. That said, I’m still giving Katniss the edge over John McClane… or Joy over Hudson Hawk if you want to go less obvious.
Holdovers Game Night and Peter Rabbit should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $65.4 million
2. Red Sparrow
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million
3. Death Wish
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
4. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (February 23-25)
Black Panther continued to confound prognosticators with its amazing run. In its sophomore frame, the Marvel phenomenon grossed $111.6 million, surging past my $101.8 million forecast. Incredibly, that gives it the #2 largest second weekend of all time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Game Night debuted in second with a solid $17 million, capitalizing on positive reviews and a dearth of comedies to choose from. It opened in line with my $16.3 million estimate.
Peter Rabbit was third with $12.7 million in weekend #3 (I said $11.6 million) for $71 million overall.
Annihilation with Natalie Portman, despite glowing critical reception, struggled in fourth with $11 million – just edging my $10.4 million projection. While critics are digging it, audiences only gave it a C Cinemascore grade. Look for it to fade quickly.
Fifty Shades Freed rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.9 million) to bring its tally to $89 million.
Finally, the YA romantic drama Every Day opened meekly in ninth with $3 million, right in line with my $2.9 million estimate.
Daddy’sHome was a rather unremarkable comedy that managed to elicit a few laughs and coast on the talents of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg. It also made a boatload of money and so we enter the territory of the likely unplanned sequel that often feels that way.
The concept, just as in part 1, is pretty simple. The 2015 original pitted softie stepdad Brad (Ferrell) against harder edged real dad Dusty (Wahlberg) vying for the kids attention. Part 2 finds them in a seemingly happy place as Co-Dads. That is until their papas travel to see them for Christmas. And wouldn’t you know it? They exhibit some of the opposite traits that caused Brad and Dusty their problems. John Lithgow is the squishy and overly attentive Brad dad and Mel Gibson is the alpha male and barely attentive Dusty dad. Their presence threatens to upend the recent harmony of their sons. As in the first, there’s an abundance of physical hijinks that follow… most of it directed toward Ferrell. Kids get drunk. They discover girls. Lots of father/son bonding and non bonding happens. The 1980s holiday relief anthem “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” gets more attention than it’s been granted in some time.
Like in the original Home model, the jokes here are mostly predicable and bland with a few genuinely funny parts sprinkled in. Anyone looking for sincere character motivations and real emotion in a Yuletide pic should look elsewhere. In fact, Gibson’s character is kind of an inexplicable monster when you stop and really think about it. It’s not much worth doing so.
Daddy’sHome2 isn’t bad and neither was its predecessor. It is utterly forgettable and a little more so than what preceded it. In my review of #1, I stated that when I think of Ferrell and Wahlberg together – my mind goes to the often inspired TheOtherGuys. I called Daddy’sHome “The Other Movie”. This is the other other one.
Alex Garland’s Annihilation hits theaters tomorrow and the science fiction thriller has been subject to some glowing reviews. It stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The film is the follow-up to director Garland’s 2015 debut Ex Machina, which nabbed two Oscar nominations. Machina won for Visual Effects (which was a bit of a surprise) and got a nod for Original Screenplay.
Annihilation is based on a novel and would compete in Adapted Screenplay. It’s unlikely this would compete for the big prizes like Picture, Director, or any of the acting races. Visual Effects could be a different story as critics have taken notice of that aspect of its production. Like Machina, it could find itself a contender in that category.
That said, distributor Paramount doesn’t seem very confident with Annihilation. That’s despite the positive critical reaction. The picture appears unlikely to make much noise at the box office and one wonders if the studio will push it for awards consideration at all. With the February release date, it’s possible Oscar voters will have simply forgotten Garland’s sophomore effort come voting time. Time will tell.
Bruce Willis is back on the big screen next weekend with Death Wish, a remake of the 1974 action pic that starred Charles Bronson. Coming from director Eli Roth, the pic costars Elisabeth Shue, Vincent D’Onofrio, Dean Norris, Kimberly Elise, and Mike Epps.
Willis will be in full vigilante mode and those familiar with Death Wish know it spawned numerous sequels of highly questionable quality. The star of the proceedings has been a bit of a stranger to multiplexes in recent years as many of his films have gone the direct to VOD route.
Competition is certainly there with Jennifer Lawrence’s Red Sparrow debuting against it and also making a play for R rated genre fans. That said, if Den of Thieves could pull in $15.2 million in January, I believe this could put up fairly similar numbers and perhaps a bit higher.
Death Wish opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
Blogger’s Note (02/28): I am revising my Red Sparrow down from $19.5 million to $17.5 million
Red Sparrow, out next Friday, reunites Jennifer Lawrence with her director for the last three Hunger Games installments Francis Lawrence. The spy thriller casts the star as a Russian spy with a supporting cast that includes Joel Edgerton, Matthew Schoenaerts, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons, and Mary-Louise Parker.
The 20th Century Fox release was originally scheduled for November of last year before the March push back. Reviews have been a bit mixed as it stands at 63% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.
Lawrence has certainly had her share of massive hits. She’s also had some under performers as of late, including Passengers and mother! Competition is a factor here. Black Panther should still be ruling the charts and Death Wish with Bruce Willis opens directly against it and will try to capture the attention of actions fans.
I could see Red Sparrow performing similarly to another recent female led spy flick, last summer’s Atomic Blonde with Charlize Theron. It opened to $18.2 million. I’ll put this just a touch higher due to Lawrence’s drawing power, but still under $20 million.
Red Sparrow opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million
The domination of Black Panther should continue at the box office in full force this weekend, but we do have some new titles debuting. The Jason Bateman/Rachel McAdams comedy Game Night and Natalie Portman led sci-fi thriller Annihilation hit screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
There’s also Every Day, a romantic drama based on a YA novel that’s rolling out on roughly 1650 screens. It seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and I didn’t do an individual post on it. I’ll estimate it only generates $2.9 million in sales.
As for the more high-profile newbies, Game Night appears poised for a second place showing. Annihilation is more of a question mark in my mind. Depending on the drop that Peter Rabbit experiences in its third weekend, it could be third or fourth with Fifty Shades Freed rounding out the top five.
Black Panther will easily rule the charts after its historic and record breaking premiere (more on that below). The Marvel phenomenon could top $100 million in its sophomore frame and that would put it fourth all time as far as #2 weekends go. That said, it pretty much blew away all expectations over the long weekend so maybe it gets to over $100 million.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $101.8 million
2. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Annihilation
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million
5. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (February 16-19)
It was an absolutely incredible debut for Black Panther as the critically acclaimed comic book adaptation smashed the February record and then some. Panther took in $242.1 million over the President’s Day frame, blasting past my $193.8 million estimate. Deadpool was the previous February high at $152 million. Its Friday to Sunday haul of $202 million gave it the fifth largest domestic opening of all time – right behind MCU counterpart The Avengers. Its Monday gross of $40.1 million stands as the highest Monday gross of all time – just edging out Star Wars: The Force Awakens by a few thousand bucks. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, look for Panther to continue its run for the ages into the next several weekends.
Peter Rabbit stayed put in the runner-up position with $23.3 million, hopping a touch over my $20.9 million prediction for a two-week tally of $54 million.
Fifty Shades Freed dropped to third with $19.4 million, a bit ahead of my $17 million estimate. In its two weeks of release, the threequel has taken in $78 million.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle took the four spot with $10 million, right in line with my $9.6 million projection for $379 million overall.
The 15:17 to Paris rounded out the top five with $8.9 million (I said $7.9 million) for $26 million thus far.
Stop-motion animated feature Early Man, despite mostly solid reviews, didn’t connect with family audiences. The pic opened in seventh with only $4.2 million compared to my prediction of $5.7 million.
Lastly, the Biblical drama Samson made no impact with moviegoers with just $2.2 million, not even matching my $3.1 million forecast.
Stephen King fans have been eagerly awaiting his series of Dark Tower novels arriving on the big screen. Most of his other heralded works have already made it before the cameras and some of them in multiple iterations. The challenge with bringing forth this particular series is said to be the dense nature of its material. And now that we have a cinematic version of TheDarkTower, I can report a number of decisions made in making it happen are indeed dense. That’s definitely not a compliment.
The picture is an abridged and often aimless experience begging for more backstory and clarity. It’s led by uninspired performances and routine shoot-em-up interruptions. Tom Taylor stars as Jake, a New York City preteen who has vivid dreams about a Man in Black trying to destroy Earth and a gunslinger trying to stop him. Jake’s family and friends think he’s coo coo, but the kid has some legit psychic power. There is a Man in Black (Matthew McConaughey) otherwise known as Walter and he is trying to take over Earth’s domain and the domains of unseen others. There is a gunslinger (Idris Elba) otherwise known as Roland and he teams up with Jake to stop the apocalypse. They also share some Daddy issues.
What follows is a bit of a head scratcher. TheDarkTower hints at a much larger universe that at least sounds kinda interesting. Yet it’s not shown. It suggests a potentially action packed past for Roland, but that’s it. I get that the idea of the movie is to set up future chapters, but it’s hard to anticipate further ones when the first is so unfulfilling.
Taylor’s lead performance is rather dull. Elba has a physical presence, but there’s no meat on the bones of what should be a far more captivating figure. McConaughey can be a terrific actor, but that’s not what we witness. His Man in Black is meant (I think) to be a scary one. McConaughey doesn’t seem to get that. His level of menace displayed here is about equal to his Lincoln commercial work.
TheDarkTower has a 95 minute length that suggests even its makers knew they had a losing hand. It represents a limp start for a building of worlds. And it’s one that may never seen the light because this fails to get it off the ground.
Ryan Coogler’s BlackPanther is certainly part of the massive Marvel Cinematic Universe. It shares some common themes with its predecessors, most notably the Thor franchise with its gorgeous landscapes and dramatic family dynamics. The story of the title character is picked up after his debut in 2016’s CaptainAmerica: CivilWar.
In other ways, Panther does have the feel of a truly stand-alone experience. The other beings in the MCU are largely ignored. Some of the faults of the MCU features aren’t here. That includes the common and deserved quibbling of weak villains. Quite the opposite here and come to think of it – that’s another thing it shares with the Asgardian God and the baddies (especially Loki) he’s battled. Panther is, of course, also noteworthy for its nearly all African-American cast and setting on the fictional African country of Wakanda.
We’ve seen a whole bunch of superhero origin stories over the past few years. BlackPanther is easily one of the most satisfying. It excites you about the character’s inclusion in his larger Avengers world while also priming you for further more self-contained adventures. We’re introduced to some memorable supporting players that often outshine the lead. And just as director Coogler reinvigorated the Rocky series with Creed, he puts a unique stamp on this franchise.
Chadwick Boseman is Black Panther/T’Challa. As you may recall, his father was assassinated in CivilWar. That development causes T’Challa to become the king. His nation of Wakanda (besides being a triumph of production design) stands alone due to its abundance of vibranium, a precious alien metal. This substance allows Wakanda to have extremely advanced technology and much of it is overseen by T’Challa’s teenage sister Shuri (Letitia Wright). She is essentially the Q to Boseman’s 007 and Wright is an absolute scene stealer in the part.
The presence of vibranium offers T’Challa the powers to be Black Panther. It also offers a conundrum: keep the vibranium local to his land as his forefathers have or use it to do good worldwide. The flip side is it could do lots of bad everywhere. That’s what Killmonger (Michael B. Jordan) would prefer. He lives over in the U.S. where he works alongside arms dealer Klaue (Andy Serkis, having a ball outside of his normal motion capture suit). They want the substance to wreak havoc and Killmonger travels overseas to do so. And the battle begins.
BlackPanther is graced with a large cast of recognizable faces. Lupita Nyong’o is T’Challa’s ex who’s also an international spy for Wakanda. Martin Freeman is a CIA agent unexpectedly thrust into this exotic world. Angela Bassett is the Queen and Forest Whitaker plays one of T’Challa’s mentors. Daniel Kaluuya, who made a splash last year with GetOut, is Panther’s best friend who grows suspicious of his leadership abilities.
That’s a lot of cast to keep up with, but the film manages it rather effortlessly. Boseman is a sturdy anchor, but you may be chatting more about Wright and Jordan after the first credits and mid credits and final credits roll. Jordan’s Killmonger, when his full motivations are revealed, turns out to be one of the strongest comic book villains we’ve seen in some time. He’s not just a tyrant seeking earthly destruction (though he is). There’s a worthwhile back story he’s granted and it ratchets the action up a notch.
Coogler’s Panther is filled with impressive performances and most of the action sequences deliver. Most importantly, its storyline doesn’t feel cookie cutter at all. This is one of the most original MCU tales in many ways while still keeping to the age-old themes created by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby decades ago. Fresh with familiarity mixed in proves to be an enticing recipe here.
