It’s been a bumpy ride for Nickelodeon’s animated feature WonderPark, but it finally hits screens this Friday. Originally titled AmusementPark and scheduled for release last summer, the pic comes with a reported $100 million price tag. The film’s director Dylan Brown was fired by the studio in early 2018 due to various sexual harassment claims. Newcomer Brianna Denski provides the lead voiceover role along with familiar faces such as Jennifer Garner, Matthew Broderick, Kenan Thompson, Ken Jeong, Mila Kunis, and John Oliver.
The box office grosses for Park, considering its hefty price tag, might not be amusing at all. It doesn’t help that CaptainMarvel will be in its sophomore frame as it also appeals to family crowds. I believe this will make low double digits for its start and that would amount to a costly flop for Paramount.
WonderPark opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
The South by Southwest festival is in full swing this weekend and the most eagerly awaited film premiere has occurred. That would be Us, Jordan Peele’s follow-up to 2017’s GetOut. The horror thriller is out domestically on March 22.
Early reviews are quite encouraging as it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Could this follow in the footsteps of Peele’s debut effort? As you may recall, GetOut premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2017 to red-hot buzz. It would end up grossing $176 million stateside and garnering four Oscar nods, including Best Picture. Peele won the gold statue for Original Screenplay.
Initial consensus for Us suggests it’s scarier than GetOut, though some reviews don’t quite put it at the level of Peele’s first pic. I’ll say that if Us can resonate with audiences in a manner similar to Out, it could find itself in the Oscar conversation (especially Original Screenplay). And it might be worth keeping an eye on Lupita Nyong’o in lead actress as an outside possibility.
After premiering last autumn at the Toronto Film Festival, GloriaBell hits theaters in limited fashion on Friday. The film is a remake of Sebastian Lelio’s 2013 Chilean comedic drama that was met with acclaim. Those strong reviews have greeted the American version (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), which again features Lelio behind the camera. It’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s AFantasticWoman, which won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Feature.
Julianne Moore plays the title role and critics have lavished praise for her work. Costars include John Turturro, Michael Cera, Brad Garrett, Holland Taylor, Sean Astin, Jeanne Tripplehorn, and Rita Wilson.
A24 acquired Gloria after its screening up north. Even with the March release, it’s likely that the studio will make a significant push for Moore to receive her sixth Oscar nod. Her fifth nomination was the lucky one in 2014 when took the statue in Best Actress for StillAlice. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the sole focus is on Moore being recognized, similar to Glenn Close in 2018 for TheWife.
Bottom line: it’s early, but Moore could be in the mix yet again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The MCU appears poised to have another blockbuster on their hands this weekend with the release of CaptainMarvel. Reviews were embargoed for a little longer than usual for the multi billion dollar franchise, but they’re out and critical reaction has been fairly solid. The Brie Larson led pic stands at 84% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s just a percentage point behind last year’s Avengers: InfinityWar – while nowhere near the 97% achieved by BlackPanther.
It was, of course, Panther that became the first superhero flick to nab a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. That won’t happen here. The storyline as far as this MCU title’s awards chances is the same as most of them and that’s Visual Effects.
Nine MCU entries have nabbed nods in Visual Effects. Interestingly, none of them have won. Competition this year will be stiff. There’s another franchise effort (Avengers: Endgame) that likely has a better shot. That’s in addition to expected players such as the next StarWars, TheLionKing, and Alita: BattleAngel, to name just some.
Bottom line: CaptainMarvel will bring audiences in. Awards chatter is more of a reach. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The MCU will undeniably be the captain this weekend at the box office as CaptainMarvel blasts into multiplexes. The pic comes off a banner 2017 for the studio that saw BlackPanther and Avengers: InfinityWar dominate the year. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My forecast north of $150 million gives it the seventh largest opening of the franchise. I believe it will help tremendously that it’s seen as a bridge between InfinityWar and next month’s Avengers: Endgame.
No other studio bothered to open anything against the MCU juggernaut. That means two-time champ HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld will dip to second position. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opened well, but it should experience a rather hefty decline as other Madea titles have. Holdovers Alita: BattleAngel and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart might be close vying for fourth place.
And with that, my top 5 take on the Marvel-ous weekend:
1. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $154.4 million
2. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral
Predicted Gross: $11 million
4. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. TheLegoMovie2:TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (March1–3)
As mentioned, HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld stayed atop the charts for a second time despite Madea. The Dreamworks Animation pic took in $30 million, a bit under my $32.2 million projection. It’s staring at the century mark with $97 million.
Tyler Perry has claimed AMadeaFamilyFuneral is the character’s swan song. If so, she went out on a high note with $27 million compared to my $22.8 million estimate. That’s the franchise’s third best starting haul.
Alita: BattleAngel was third with $7.2 million (I said $6.3 million) for $72 million overall.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was fourth with $6.6 million. I was lower at $5.3 million. It’s built its earnings up to $91 million.
FightingwithMyFamily was fifth at $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $14 million in two weeks.
Greta was the weekend’s non-Madea newbie and it debuted in eighth place with a ho-hum $4.4 million. I had it at $5.6 million.
Focused on the mission that put a man on the moon a half century ago, the documentary Apollo11 launched in select cities this weekend to solid box office results. The feature is directed by Todd Douglas Miller and it first garnered buzz during its January screenings at the Sundance Film Festival. Critics landed firmly in its camp as it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Apollo took in approximately $1.6 million on 120 screens for a laudable $13,000 per theater average. There are likely to be numerous docs contending for the Academy’s attention. Neon and CNN Films will need to mount a campaign that keeps this in the voters minds for months, but that’s feasible. It’s worth keeping an eye on for a Best Documentary Feature nod.
In January, the Sundance Film Festival saw the premiere of Lulu Wang’s TheFarewell. The drama casts comedian Awkwafina as a Chinese American who travels across the ocean to care for her ailing grandmother. Drawing praise upon its screening, the film currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
TheFarewell sparked a bidding war won by A24. They purchased it for $7 million and it’s scheduled for domestic release on July 12. There’s already a feeling that it could be a significant summer sleeper. Last summer, Awkwafina broke out on the silver screen in a major way with supporting roles in Ocean’s8 and CrazyRichAsians. Her work here has garnered raves and she could find herself in the mix for a Best Actress nod a little less than a year from now.
Furthermore, Ms. Wang could be considered for her direction and especially for her Original Screenplay. The pic has a large ensemble cast and Tzi Ma is a name to keep an eye on for Supporting Actor.
Bottom line: TheFarewell, if it lands with audiences, could be greeted with affection from awards voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
CaptainMarvel pilots into theaters next weekend with the highest opening of the year thus far easily in its sights. The latest entry from the Marvel Cinematic Universe comes after a banner 2017 from the studio that saw BlackPanther and Avengers: InfinityWar both earn over $675 million domestically. Brie Larson stars as the title character alongside Samuel L. Jackson as a younger Nick Fury as the tale takes place in the mid 90s. Other costars include Jude Law, Annette Bening, Ben Mendelsohn, Djimon Hounsou, Lee Pace, Lashana Lace, Gemma Chan, and Clark Gregg as Agent Coulson. Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck, known for making small pics like HalfNelson and MississippiGrind, up their budget game here behind the camera.
The newest MCU saga serves as a bridge between InfinityWar and the upcoming Avengers: Endgame, as was hinted at during the end credits of the former. That alone should provide it a substantial opening. As mentioned, it should have zero trouble posting the year’s largest debut and should hold that designation until the Endgame arrival in late April. How much that specific number is lies within a wide range. On the low-end of projections, we could see a debut in the vicinity of the $117 million made by 2017’s Spider–Man: Homecoming. The high-end could approach the friendly neighborhood of $180 million.
If CaptainMarvel makes it to that level, we could be looking at an all-time record for the month of March. That mark is currently held by BeautyandtheBeast at $174 million. I’m not sure it manages to get there, but it’s dangerous to underestimate the MCU. I think a more likely scenario is the #3 biggest March debut – currently held by TheHungerGames, which made $152 million out of the gate. I’ll put it just over that.
CaptainMarvel opening weekend prediction: $154.4 million
In 2011, TheGirlwiththeDragonTattoo billed itself as the “feel bad” movie of the Christmas season. It was an apt description due to its bleak subject matter stemming from the series of Stieg Larsson bestsellers. However, the film itself left a very positive impression with its stylish direction from David Fincher and fine lead performances from Rooney Mara and Daniel Craig.
It’s taken some time for Hollywood to come up with their second iteration of the franchise (there were three Swedish entries a decade ago). This time around, the players from Tattoo are MIA and they wisely removed themselves. Fincher only executive produces. Mara’s Oscar nominated turn as Lisbeth Salander is now portrayed by Claire Foy. Craig’s journalist Mikael Blomkvist is now represented by Sverrir Gudnason. The harsh material and winter that accompanies it are still present.
Unlike the 2011 adaptation, TheGirlintheSpider’s Web (based on David Lagercrantz’s book following Larsson’s death) is not an example of bad meaning good. Sadly it’s just plain bad most of the time. In ways that were only hinted at in Tattoo, Lisbeth’s backstory is explored in detail here. She’s a child of a nasty abusive father that she managed to escape from. Her mission of avenging women from lousy men is provided more context. Lisbeth has a sister that didn’t get to loosen herself from her father’s grip. And she grows up to be Sylvia Hoeks’s character, who inherits many of the sadistic patriarchal traits.
Web has a tangled plot involving a McGuffin that reveals the global nuclear codes (how familiar). Lisbeth is hired by a conflicted programmer (Stephen Merchant) to retrieve it. The programmer, in a lame plot twist, has a young son who is the only one capable of unlocking the device’s codes. The American government, led by a sullen NSA agent (LaKeith Stanfield), want it back. So does Lisbeth’s sibling and her bevy of thugs who go by “The Spiders”.
I haven’t mentioned Blomkvist yet. He’s in the picture for plenty of minutes. As played by Gudnason, he’s also totally forgettable. The romantic dynamic between that character and Lisbeth was the bloody heart of Tattoo. Here it’s basically ignored and inconsequential. Mara and Craig clicked in the predecessor. Blomkvist is a dull blank slate in this.
Fede Alvarez is behind the camera and he’s a talented filmmaker as proven by his EvilDead remake and Don’tBreathe. He does his best to bring some visual flair and succeeds a few times. He’s no Fincher though. Many of the action sequences are routine. I don’t look for plausibility in stuff like this. Yet the sight of Lisbeth getting herself out of impossible scenarios over and over again based on her being a walking super computer grows tiresome.
Foy is a fine actress who tries her best to provide some emotional heft to the lead role. This pseudo-sequel doesn’t deserve her. Tattoo made its feel bad mark in highly satisfying fashion. Spider’sWeb feels like a fake.
As the Oscars aired last night, it seems appropriate as 2019’s Best Picture front-runner TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opens this weekend and tries to dislodge HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld from the top spot after its franchise best opening. We also have the horror drama Greta with Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Mr. Perry may have to settle for second place as I have the alleged Madea finale getting a low 20s start (the possibility of mid to high 20s is certainly feasible). Dragon exceeded expectations and may see a low 30s sophomore frame.
As for Greta, it’s being released on a surprisingly hefty 2000 screens. I still think it will struggle and settle for fourth after Alita: BattleAngel, with TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart rounding out the top five.
And here’s my projections for the weekend ahead:
1. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million
2. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral
Predicted Gross: $22.8 million
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Greta
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
BoxOfficeResults (February22–24)
As mentioned, the Dreamworks Animation franchise finale Howto Train YourDragon: TheHiddenWorld rode out on a high note with $55 million, easily surpassing my $44.7 million prediction. In this young year, that’s the largest opening thus far (CaptainMarvel will change that in short order).
Alita: BattleAngel dropped to second with $12.3 million, in line with my $12.9 million forecast for a two-week tally of $61 million.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was third with $9.6 million compared to my $11.2 million take. Overall earnings are $83 million.
The wrestling biopic FightingwithMyFamily expanded nationwide and was fourth with $7.8 million, not matching my $10.8 million projection.
Isn’tItRomantic rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.1 million). It’s made out with $33 million.
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