Tag: movies

The Angry Birds Movie 2 Box Office Prediction

Those animated and ill tempered fowls based on the video game you were obsessed with on your smart phone are back next week with The Angry Birds Movie 2. Our first Birds flew into theaters in the summer of 2016 and the sequel returns the vocal stylings of Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Bill Hader, and Peter Dinklage. Newcomers include Leslie Jones, Rachel Bloom, Awkwafina, Sterling K. Brown, and Eugenio Derbez. Thurop Van Orman makes his directorial debut.

Three years ago, Birds kicked off to a solid $38 million. Unlike many other animated offerings, it didn’t leg out particularly well with a final gross of $107 million. Surprisingly, critical reaction to this follow-up is stronger than what transpired before. This stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes compared to 44% for its predecessor.

That said, I don’t see the sequel outdoing part 1. It opens on a Tuesday – perhaps in an effort to nab more kid business before schools start. A premiere of mid to high teens to over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame and low to possibly mid 20s for the six day is where I’m at.

The Angry Birds Movie 2 opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Good Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/07/good-boys-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down: Uncaged prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/08/47-meters-down-uncaged-box-office-prediction/

For my Blinded by the Light prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/11/blinded-by-the-light-box-office-prediction/

For my Where’d You Go, Bernadette prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/11/whered-you-go-bernadette-box-office-prediction/

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (08/07): My Scary Stories prediction has risen from $10.7 million to $14.3 million

After several weeks of one giant blockbuster hopeful debuting and having the weekend to itself, a quintet of mid tier titles open in this second weekend of August. We have the kid friendly Dora and the Lost City of Gold based on the Nickelodeon series, PG-13 horror flick Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Melissa McCarthy/Tiffany Haddish crime thriller The Kitchen, dog tale The Art of Racing in the Rain, and wrongful imprisonment drama Brian Banks all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Some weekends, it’s fairly easy to project the order of the top five. This isn’t one of them. A couple of things seem highly likely. After a decent start that was still on the bottom end of expectations, Hobbs & Shaw should manage to repeat in first place. I will say a drop of over 50% is where I see it landing in the sophomore frame.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold seems poised to have to biggest premiere of the five newbies. However, my high teens projection puts it in third behind The Lion King.

I have Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, The Kitchen, and The Art of Racing in the Rain all in the high single digits to low double digits range and all behind the third weekend of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

As for Brian Banks, its lack of promotion and lowly 1500 theater count means my $2.3 million prediction means it shouldn’t even compete for the top five.

So on this weekend of multiple new releases, my top seven take:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million

3. Dora and the Lost City of Gold

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million

4. Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

6. The Kitchen

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The Art of Racing in the Rain

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (August 2–4)

Fast and Furious spin-off Hobbs & Shaw cruised over holdover competition as anticipated, but it couldn’t match the starting earnings of the last several traditional franchise entries. It took in $60 million, under my take of $72.6 million.

The Lion King was second after two weeks of dominance with $38.5 million, right on pace with my $38.7 million projection. The massive total stands at $431 million.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was third in weekend #2 with $20 million, in line with my $20.7 million prediction. The two week haul is $78 million.

Spider–Man: Far From Home took fourth with $7.9 million (I said $7.1 million) for $360 million overall.

Toy Story 4 rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I was slightly lower with $6.6 million) for a take of $410 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The 2019 Oscar Season Cometh

As the summer season winds down, the movie industry and this blog’s attention will soon turn to the Oscar race. And if you think it’s too early to do that, consider that less than a month from now – an avalanche of Academy hopefuls will be unveiled at film festivals. Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and the New York festivals are on deck. The programmers behind those events have already released the names of many of the pictures premiering. Here are some of the pictures wishing for Oscar glory that are hitting the circuit:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Tom Hanks is iconic children’s host Mr. Rogers in director Marielle Heller’s follow-up to last year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which nabbed nods for Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant. Premiering at Toronto.

Ad Astra

James Gray has made multiple critical darlings, but has yet to pop up on the awards circuit radar screen. Could this sci fi drama with Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones change that? Premiering at Venice.

An Officer and a Spy

It will need serious acclaim to overcome the baggage that comes from its maker Roman Polanski, but this historical thriller will attempt to do so in Venice.

Dolemite Is My Name

Prior to its anticipated Netflix launch, Craig Brewer’s biopic of comedian Rudy Ray Moore portrayed by legendary comic Eddie Murphy will bow at Toronto.

Ema

Pablo Larrain has had his pics No and Jackie attract awards nods and this Chilean drama hopes to follow suit. Premiering at Venice.

Ford v Ferrari

Matt Damon and Christian Bale star in James Mangold’s 1960s set tale of the flashy automotive industry. Premiering at Toronto.

Harriet

Cynthia Erica was a breakout in last year’s Widows. This year she has an Academy baity role as abolitionist Harriet Tubman in this historical epic from Kasi Lemmons. Premiering at Toronto.

Jojo Rabbit

This concoction from Taika Waititi is set during WWII with a dark comedic premise finding a young child with an imaginary friend who happens to be Hitler. The filmmaker himself plays Hitler. Scarlett Johansson and Sam Rockwell are among the cast.

Joker

Heath Ledger won a posthumous gold statue as the comic book villain in The Dark Knight. Joaquin Phoenix will attempt the same here. Premiering at Venice.

Judy

It’s been awhile since Renee Zellweger had a role receiving awards buzz. This biopic of Judy Garland could alter that. Premiering at Toronto.

Just Mercy

This drama about a falsely accused prisoner features Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx, and Brie Larson. Premiering at Toronto.

Knives Out

Rian Johnson’s murder mystery has a sprawling cast of hopefuls including Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, and Michael Shannon. Premiering at Toronto.

Marriage Story

Noah Baumbach is a favorite of the critical community. This drama is headlined by Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver and hits Venice and other fests before its Netflix premiere.

The Goldfinch

Brooklyn director John Crowley adapts this drama based on a well-known 2013 novel. The cast includes Nicole Kidman and Oakes Fegley. Premiering at Toronto.

The Irishman

Rightly kicking off the New York Festival, Martin Scorsese directs this gangster saga starring Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci.

The Laundromat

Oscar winner Steven Soderbergh directs this dramatic thriller with Meryl Streep, Gary Oldman, and Antonio Banderas. Premiering at Venice.

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Lion nominee Dev Patel is the Charles Dickens character with a supporting cast including Tilda Swinton and Hugh Laurie. Premiering at Toronto.

The Two Popes

Jonathan Pryce is Pope Francis and Anthony Hopkins is Pope Benedict in this Netflix effort from director Fernando Meirelles. Premiering at Toronto.

Followers of this blog know that I’ll do Oscar Watch posts on each of these and many others as they screen in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Tom Shadyac is best known as a maker of high profile and high grossing 90s comedies like Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Nutty Professor, and Liar Liar. This weekend’s Brian Banks sees him working on a smaller scale in a different genre. Banks is the true life tale of a football player (Aldis Hodge) falsely accused of rape and the efforts of the Innocence Project to clear him. Costars include Greg Kinnear, Sherri Shepherd, and Morgan Freeman.

Reviews so far have been scarce, but those posted are pretty decent. The film is slated to open on a smallish 1500 screens and its biggest hurdle is likely plain awareness of its existence. A gross above $2 million could even be a challenge, but I’ll say it manages to clear that low bar.

Brian Banks opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/dora-and-the-lost-city-of-gold-box-office-prediction/

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-kitchen-box-office-prediction/

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-dark-box-office-prediction/

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-art-of-racing-in-the-rain-box-office-prediction/

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

Another canine dramedy hits screens next weekend with The Art of Racing in the Rain. Based on a 2008 book by Garth Stein, the human stars are Milo Ventimiglia and Amanda Seyfried with supporting work from Kathy Baker and Gary Cole. Kevin Costner provides the voice of lead dog Enzo. Simon Curtis directs. This is the first feature made by Fox where new owner Disney has handled the marketing.

Even the Mouse Factory’s expertise at selling product may not enough for Rain to break out of the pack of recent genre fare. In January, A Dog’s Way Home debuted to just over $11 million. In May, A Dog’s Journey did $8 million for its start. I believe the latter scenario is where this lands.

The Art of Racing in the Rain opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/07): My prediction has increased from $10.7 million to $14.3 million

Based on a series of Alvin Schwartz horror novels geared towards children, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark opens in theaters next weekend. Co-produced by Guillermo del Toro, the film comes from director André Øvredal who mostly recently made the critically appreciated The Autopsy of Jane Doe. Cast members include Zoe Colletti, Michael Garza, Gabriel Rush, Austin Abrams, Dean Norris, Gil Bellows, and Lorraine Toussaint.

The concoction of the horror genre marketing to a young audience is a risky one. I’m not confident this mix will result in pleasing box office earnings and I wouldn’t expect the “Stranger Things” crowd to turn out. Even though we’re talking PG-13 here vs. an R rating, I’ll project this performs similarly to what Overlord (which boasted its own known producer J.J. Abrams) did last year.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish go out of their comedic comfort zones next weekend with the release of The Kitchen. The crime thriller casts the two performers alongside Elisabeth Moss as the wives of incarcerated gangsters who take over Mob operations in New York. The late 70s set pic marks the directorial debut of Andrea Berloff and is based on a comic book miniseries. Costars include Domhnall Gleeson, James Badge Dale, Brian d’Arcy James, Margo Martindale, Common, and Bill Camp.

If McCarthy and Haddish were headlining a high profile slapstick comedy, my estimate for The Kitchen would likely be considerably more (easily double). However, I’m skeptical that a wide audience is eager to see them in this. If solid reviews pop up in the coming days, that could potentially change the dynamic a bit. I think it’s going to have difficulty reaching double digits.

The Kitchen opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

Making the leap from the Nickelodeon small screen for a live action rendering, Dora and the Lost City of Gold looks to cash in at theaters next weekend. The family adventure is based on the animated series “Dora the Explorer” that started back in 2000. James Bobin, best known for The Muppets reimagining and Alice Through the Looking Glass, directs. Isabela Moner, recently seen in Instant Family, is the title character with a supporting cast including Eugenio Derbez, Michael Pena, and Eva Longoria. Danny Trejo and Benicio del Toro provided voice work

Paramount is hopeful that a pot of gold will exist with Latino audiences and kids who’ve made the TV show part of their programming over the last many years. The film is probably review proof and they’ve been mixed so far. This shouldn’t face much trouble having the largest debut of the five pictures arriving over the weekend. I’ll say high teens to low 20s is where this lands.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs & Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million

It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs & Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the Fast and Furious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Hobbs & Shaw Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking The Lion King from its two week perch atop the charts.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: Far From Home and Toy Story 4 filling out the top five.

There is a potential wild card this weekend with The Farewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $72.6 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

4. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26–28)

The Lion King, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.

Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.

Spider–Man: Far From Home was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.

Toy Story 4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.

I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.

Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Summer 2009: The Top 10 Hits and More

Today we continue with my recaps of the movie summers from 30, 20, and 10 years ago. I’ve already covered 1989 and 1999 and if you missed them, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/10/summer-1989-the-top-10-hits-and-more/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/23/summer-1999-the-top-10-hits-and-more/

Looking over the 2009 list, it’s a reminder of how one thing in particular has changed in just a decade. In the summer of 2008, Iron Man came out and kickstarted the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Two seasons later, Iron Man 2 followed. In every summer since, there’s been a massive MCU title often ruling the charts. 2009 is the last year not to feature one.

Instead, one of the most indelible images from 10 years past is Mike Tyson belting out a Phil Collins classic.

As I’ve done with previous entries, I’ll recount the top ten hits along with some other notable pics and flops. Let’s get to it!

10. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

Domestic Gross: $150 million

Hasbro was kind of the MCU of this summer by bookending the top 10. Based on their popular set of action figures, Cobra spawned a sequel and introduced many moviegoers to Channing Tatum.

9. The Proposal

Domestic Gross: $163 million

What a year for Sandra Bullock. First she has this huge rom com with Ryan Reynolds and months later gets her Oscar winning turn in The Blind Side. Not to mention Betty White is in this!

8. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

Domestic Gross: $177 million

While it couldn’t match the $250 million earned by its 2006 predecessor, the Ben Stiller led  family adventure sequel still did enough for a part 3 to eventually follow.

7. X–Men Origins: Wolverine

Domestic Gross: $179 million

The first of three spinoffs for Hugh Jackman’s iconic clawed character, this is generally considered the worst of them. It still made a pretty penny and gave us a first glimpse at Ryan Reynolds as Wade Wilson, aka Deadpool.

6. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

Domestic Gross: $196 million

The third of these five animated tales, Dinosaurs stands at the largest grosser by a mere $1 million over 2006 predecessor Ice Age: The Meltdown.

5. Star Trek

Domestic Gross: $257 million

J.J. Abrams was able to bring this long running film and TV milestone to the next generation in a critically acclaimed way. His reboot remains the highest grossing entry in the canon of Trek. Two sequels so far have followed.

4. The Hangover

Domestic Gross: $277 million

The breakout comedy of the summer made stars out of Bradley Cooper and Zach Galifianakis in particular and had the aforementioned Mike Tyson musical moment of glory. Two lesser regarded sequels followed.

3. Up

Domestic Gross: $293 million

Pixar had another smash hit with this tale of aging and wonder that contains my personal favorite sequence of any of their titles. The opening montage of a couple’s journey through life is simultaneously beautiful and devastating.

2. Harry Potter and the Half–Blood Prince

Domestic Gross: $301 million

This sixth Potter pic set up the two part franchise finale and it stands at the third biggest grosser behind the eighth and final entry and the first film in 2001.

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Domestic Gross: $402 million

The follow-up to the 2007 original, Michael Bay’s metallic action extravaganza is the high point in terms of box office dollars overall and largest opening, even though critics mercilessly crucified it.

And now for some other notable flicks from the summer that was 10 years ago:

Angels & Demons

Domestic Gross: $133 million

The sequel to The Da Vinci Code, the return of Tom Hanks as Robert Langdon performed decently, but nowhere near the $217 million achieved by its predecessor. The next sequel Inferno bombed.

Inglourious Basterds

Domestic Gross: $120 million

Quentin Tarantino’s revisionist World War II saga become his best earning pic at the time and earned a slew of Oscar nods, including a win for scene stealer Christoph Waltz.

District 9

Domestic Gross: $115 million

Made for a mere $30 million, Neill Blomkamp announced himself a serious force of sci-fi nature with heralded work that nabbed a Best Picture nod.

Public Enemies

Domestic Gross: $97 million

This gangster tale from Michael Mann was headlined by Johnny Depp and Christian Bale as they took a break between their respective pirate and bat franchises. It was a slight box office disappointment as it couldn’t quite match its $100 million budget back domestically.

Julie & Julia

Domestic Gross: $94 million

Meryl Streep got her umpteenth Oscar nod playing famed chef Julia Child in this Nora Ephron dramedy that proved to be a nice August hit.

Bruno

Domestic Gross: $60 million

There was enough goodwill left over from Sacha Baron Cohen’s smash Borat to propel this satire about a fashion journalist to a $30 million opening weekend. It fell off quickly after that impressive start.

Drag Me to Hell

Domestic Gross: $42 million

Following on the heels of his Spider–Man trilogy, this horror comedy brought Sam Raimi back to his Evil Dead roots. Box office dollars were just ok, but critics appreciated it.

(500) Days of Summer

Domestic Gross: $32 million

Made for a tiny $7.5 million, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel charmed audiences with this rom com from Marc Webb. He would take over the Spidey franchise from Raimi shortly thereafter.

The Hurt Locker

Domestic Gross: $17 million

Kathryn Bigelow’s intense tale of bomb technicians in Iraq made a name for Jeremy Renner. While its box office earnings weren’t that potent, the real reward came later when it won the Oscar for Best Picture and Bigelow became the first female to be awarded Best Director.

We move to pictures that failed to meet expectations or were outright flops.

Terminator Salvation

Domestic Gross: $125 million

The Governor of California sat this one out and this McG directed franchise entry couldn’t match the opening of part 3 from six years prior. Today it’s perhaps best known for a secretly recorded onset argument between McG and star Christian Bale.

The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3

Domestic Gross: $65 million

A remake of a 1974 Walter Matthau action flick about hijacked subway cars, Tony Scott’s collaboration starring Denzel Washington and John Travolta fell short of anticipated blockbuster status.

Funny People

Domestic Gross: $51 million

Judd Apatow had made two huge comedies with The 40 Year Old Virgin and Knocked Up. This one centered on the world of stand-up with Adam Sandler and Seth Rogen. It was more personal and divided critics and crowds alike.

Land of the Lost

Domestic Gross: $49 million

Based on a loopy 1970s TV series, Will Ferrell had a rare bomb with this critically derided prehistoric pic. It didn’t earn half of its $100 million price tag back stateside.

Year One

Domestic Gross: $43 million

Yet another prehistoric comedic failure, the talents of director Harold Ramis and Jack Black and Michael Cena couldn’t get reviewers or audiences on its side.

Imagine That

Domestic Gross: $16 million

Families ignored this particular Eddie Murphy headliner that stands as one of his lowest grossing efforts.

And that does it for my seasonal summer recaps! A year from now… look for 1990, 2000, and 2010 coming your way.