Ahead of its September 25th theatrical bow, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime has screened at Venice. Is it ready for Oscar attention? Depends on the high profile category. Robert Pattinson stars as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Bokeem Woodbine, Anna Faris, and Alex Winter.
Critics are praising the grimy look covering dark subject matter in the thriller. It sports a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes with a clearer picture Metacritic rating of 74. Pattinson is having himself a year with acclaimed roles in The Drama and The Odyssey. His turn as the potentially dangerously driven Hansen could be his strongest shot at a Best Actor nom. He could definitely make the quintet though I’d feel even more confident if I felt Primetime had a better chance in BP.
Most of the focus has been trained on Pattinson before reviews came out. Yet it’s worth noting that Wever and Gisondo are getting MVP shoutouts in write-ups. If Primetime exceeds expectations, either or both could come along for the ride. Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography and maybe Casting are also doable. Don’t be shocked, however, if only Pattinson is represented at the primetime ceremony and that’s a question mark. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Legendary English auteur Mike Leigh has stated that Tender Loving Care is most likely his last feature film after a career of indie dramas. Several have garnered awards attention including seven personal mentions for his directing or screenwriting. Those nominations cover a quintet of pics: 1996’s Secrets & Lies, 1999’s Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake from 2004, 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, and 2010’s Another Year. Leigh has yet to win.
Care stars Kate O’Flynn, Marion Bailey (Leigh’s real life partner), Paul Jesson, and Alice Bailey Johnson. Premiering at Telluride before moving to Toronto and New York, Bleecker Street is releasing it December 4th. Early reviews indicate this is a touching dramedy that would serve as a fine swan song to his career.
I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for this to be in the Best Picture conversation. O’Flynn and Bailey, in a best case scenario, could be chatted up in the Actress and Supporting Actress fields. The former is having a banner year with an acclaimed performance on Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay which could earn her an Emmy.
The likeliest scenario might be Leigh receiving his sixth and potentially final try in Original Screenplay and that being Care‘s sole nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
New octogenarian Paul Schrader’s has been prolific over the past few years pumping out his dark morality tales and his latest is The Basics of Philosophy. It premiered out of competition at Venice while it awaits U.S. distribution. Jack Huston, Sofia Boutella, Daniel Zovatto, Bill Pullman, and Dana Delany (who costarred in Schrader’s 1992 Light Sleeper) are among the cast members.
Schrader received his one and only Oscar nomination for penning 2018’s First Reformed. This is pretty shocking considering the Academy didn’t recognize for screenwriting contributions for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, or Affliction. Since Reformed, he’s written and directed The Card Counter, Master Gardener, and Oh, Canada and none of them have resonated with voters. Early WOM for Basics is mixed enough that it won’t enter the awards conversation either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Na Hong-jin’s South Korean action sci-fi spectacle Hope looks to post impressive domestic grosses when it debuts September 9th. Reportedly the widest stateside release from its nation since 2019’s Parasite, the film originally premiered at Cannes before hitting South Korean venues in July. Hwang Jung-min, Zo In-sung, and Hoyean lead the cast along with Taylor Russell, Cameron Britton, Alicia Vikander, and Michael Fassbender.
Hope drew passionate reactions at Cannes with many reviews lauding the filmmaker’s directorial flourishes while being more critical of other aspects. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 68 Metacritic. Neon is handling North American distribution. With a Wednesday start, I could see its grosses being front-loaded and I think the five-day could approach $10 million.
Hope opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
In 1998, Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman headlined the witchy fantasy Practical Magic and it grossed a solid $46 million domestically ($94 million in today’s bucks). It has since gained a significant cult following and the two stars return for Practical Magic 2 on September 11th. Dianne Wiest and Stockard Channing reprise their roles from the original. Susanne Bier takes over directorial duties from Griffin Dunne. New cast members include Joey King, Lee Pace, Maisie Williams, Xolo Maridueña, and Solly McLeod.
At the least, this should be the movie that finally dislodges Spider-Man: Brand New Day from the #1 spot after six weeks. The floor for this is probably $30 million. A sizable female audience should turn up and even some younger viewers who have caught part 1 on streaming or cable. Nostalgia should be a powerful spell for plenty of paying customers.
A best case scenario could be Magic earning more in its first weekend than Magic‘s entire stateside run. My hunch is to take the slight under for what would be a great opening for Warner Bros.
Practical Magic 2 opening weekend prediction: $43.5 million
Filmmaker Werner Herzog has been known more for his documentaries in recent years than fictional features. Yet he’s back in Venice (and then Telluride and Toronto) with the latter via Bucking Fastard. Real life sisters Rooney and Kate Mara headline as two siblings in the oddball drama where their characters share a rare emotional connection. Orlando Bloom and Domhnall Gleeson costar.
Herzog is known for eccentric tales and Fastard (with an eccentric title to boot) appears to fit that description. Critics are appreciating the work of the two leads while most reviews are more mixed on the picture itself. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with Metacritic at 58. This was never seen as much of an awards contender and reaction from Italy prove its chances are, well, bucked. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Out this Labor Day weekend and not expected to make much of a box office splash is the historical crime drama By Any Means. It has quiet word-of-mouth and seems generic enough that I called it By All Means in my box office prediction post for it. Two or three days passed before I realized I had the wrong title. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Wahlberg, Nicole Beharie, Josh Lucas, David Strathairn, and Giancarlo Esposito are among cast members.
To be fair, the reviews aren’t bad with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 56 on Metacritic. And perhaps it’ll bring in a larger than expected adult crowd over the holiday weekend. However, this was never seen as an awards player. That is… until a few days ago.
Enter Diane Warren. Oscar pundits know the name well. The prolific songwriter has been nominated 17 times for her original songs without a victory to show for it. That’s the most at bats without a home run. The Academy did give her an honorary statue in 2022. It was announced that Warren is behind the title track for Any, performed by the Isley Brothers and David Kushner. Warren currently stands at nine nominated tracks in a row dating back to 2017. Simply put, history indicates “By Any Means” could by all means become the 10th in succession. Once again, a win could be elusive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Martin McDonagh’s last two features have received Best Picture and screenplay nominations and a combined seven acting mentions yielding two wins. 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had our Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) victors with Woody Harrelson also up in supporting. The Banshees of Inisherin, while 0 for 4 in podium walks, saw Colin Farrell (Actor), Kerry Condon (Supporting Actress), and Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan (Supporting Actor in contention) in the mix.
So it’s no surprise that Wild Horse Nine, the filmmaker’s latest black comedy, was considered a serious awards contender upon announcement. John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Ailín Salas, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey are in the ensemble. It has screened at Venice prior and moves to Telluride and Toronto before the November 6th theatrical bow.
Early word-of-mouth from Italy gives it an 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 79 on Metacritic. That’s not as high as Billboards or Banshees. However, the strongest reviews indicate this should be a third BP nominee in a row for McDonagh. Directing is more of a question mark while his original screenplay seems like a certainty. Down-the-line inclusion in Casting (a strong possibility), Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score are achievable.
One of the biggest question marks has been which performers will rise out of the group. Malkovich has been nominated in Supporting Actor twice – 42 years ago for The Killing Fields and 33 years ago for In the Line of Fire. It appears his first leading nom is coming based on buzz and he might be a threat to win. This is assuming Fox Searchlight campaigns for him there instead of supporting. Until I hear different, I’m making that assumption. Rockwell appears more poised to get attention in that race than Buscemi though it’s worth a reminder that both Banshees boys got in. As for the females providing support, a better than expected haul for Horse could sweep di Girolamo or Posey in. Yet I’m less convinced about both making the cut and I’ve had the former in my projected five since my initial predictions. That may change in my next update. What hasn’t changed is that Wild is an awards player as expected. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Venice Film Festival kicks off today with Telluride and Toronto soon to follow. Danny Boyle’s Ink is the Italian fest’s opening feature. The filmmaker’s Slumdog Millionaire was the Best Picture honoree in 2008. Based on the 2017 stage play, the film recounts the founding and evolution of British tabloid The Sun from the late 1960s to the 1980s. Jack O’Connell, Claire Foy, and Guy Pearce (as Rupert Murdoch) headline the cast. Ink is slated for a limited and Oscar-qualifying theatrical engagement on December 11th before a Netflix bow on January 8th.
Sometimes a festival premiere will greatly increase or decrease a pic’s awards viability. The initial reaction to Ink pretty much puts it where I assumed it was. With 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, reviews are generally praising many aspects without going overboard.
I’ve had Ink just on the outside looking in for Best Picture contention. My update three days ago had it 11th. Netflix faces a choice with how hard they go in their campaign as The Black Ball will likely be their main focus. Right now my hunch that it misses the BP cut feels correct.
The buzz from Venice also indicates that O’Connell, Foy, and Pearce all deliver fine performances. However, only Pearce seems truly viable for consideration in the Supporting Actor field. The veteran performer landed his first nom two years ago for The Brutalist and was arguably runner-up for the win. He is nowhere near a shoo-in to make the final five though I suspect he’ll be in the mix in a way his costars are not.
Ink could also play in Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. For the latter, that may apply only if it sneaks into the BP race. That is certainly a possibility, but I’m leaning the other way as the ink figuratively dries on this write-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.
The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.
Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.
As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.
And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $23 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
3. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. By Any Means
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (August 28-30)
As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.
After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.
The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.
Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.
With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).
Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.
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