Over the past three decades, Clint Eastwood has made two Best Picture winners (1992’s Unforgiven, 2004’s Million Dollar Baby) and directed three nominees (2003’s Mystic River, 2006’s Letters from Iwo Jima, 2014’s American Sniper). So it stands to reason that anytime we see a new feature from the legend, an Oscar predictions post is warranted.
His latest is Cry Macho and the Western themed drama (based on a 1975 novel) was in development before Clint had won any gold hardware. Fun fact: Burt Lancaster was once tapped to headline it. The pic hits theaters and HBO Max Friday and the embargo was lifted today.
Eastwood’s return to the genre he’s most known for is split down the middle as far as critical reaction. Macho has a 52% Rotten Tomatoes rating at press time. This never seemed like much of an awards contender in his long filmography and reviews confirm just that. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Justin Chon’s Blue Bayou has a compelling message about a touchy political issue. In its final moments, it serves as an angry takedown on the country’s immigration policies. This is spliced with moments of melodrama and a generous heaping of subplots. The mix is often just a little off in this overflowing gumbo of storylines though it occasionally has the recipe right for an emotional payoff.
The director serves as star and writer here. Chon is Antonio LeBlanc and he’s lived just outside of New Orleans for his cognizant life. A tattoo artist with a criminal past, Antonio is on the right track with his pregnant wife Kathy (Alicia Vikander) and precious stepdaughter Jessie (Sydney Kowalske). He remembers little (or so he says) about his first years in South Korea before becoming a foster child stateside, which too is off limits for discussion.
Kathy’s ex (Mark O’Brien) is a police officer who wants more face time with Jessie. That domestic dynamic puts Antonio in jeopardy when an encounter calls his naturalization status into question. Facing deportation, Bayou shifts to showing the impossibly jumbled procedural morass to remain in the only home that Antonio has truly known.
Speaking of shifting and jumbling, there’s a lot of it in this screenplay. In addition to the looming court date, our protagonist strikes up a friendship with a cancer stricken Vietnamese woman (Lanh Dan Pham). Their interactions touchingly show Antonio a life of family and fellowship that’s often escaped him.
Regarding his past criminal offenses involving stolen motorcycles, Antonio’s quick need for cash has him pondering a return to that life. This causes major tension between him and Kathy. Vikander is quite good in the role. She’s not your typical suffering spouse. One gets the impression that she’s the one holding it all together for her small but growing family. The actress gets a lovely moment in which she croons the track serving as the title.
We delve into Antonio’s abusive past – both in Louisiana and overseas. He also happens to be good buds with an ICE agent (a hulking Tony Vitrano) who might be escorting him onto a plane at some point. There’s Kathy’s disapproving mother. In the film’s worst characterization, there’s the partner of Kathy’s former boyfriend. He’s played by Emory Cohen as an exaggerated coconut drink sipping buffoon who’s either being the main reason for Antonio’s troubles or talking about andouille sausage. Cohen’s role has about as much subtlety as J.W. Pepper, the loud and crude Bayou sheriff from Live and Let Die and The Man with the Golden Gun (Roger Moore’s first two James Bond features).
The heart of Blue Bayou is certainly well-placed and its urgent call for reform is best felt in the epilogue displaying real cases of injustice and the legal loopholes that caused them. In the midst of all the subplots and busy work of the script, Antonio’s connection with Jessie is the one that may get you misty eyed. Chon is passionate about his subject matter. Yet it frequently feels like the passion could have been harnessed into a more cohesive structure and not this unwieldy result.
In 2016, Theodore Melfi’s Hidden Figures earned a Best Picture nomination. Melissa McCarthy is the beneficiary of two Oscar nods – one for her supporting comedic work in Bridesmaids ten years back and for her more dramatic turn in lead actress with 2018’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?
So on paper, The Starling might have some Academy cred. The dramedy premieres on Netflix September 24 and has screened in Toronto. Casting McCarthy as a grief stricken woman also dealing with the pesky title character, reviews are out. Several critics are downright negative. The Rotten Tomatoes score is perched at only 33%.
McCarthy has appealed to awards voters with her performances on the funny and serious side. This mix of the two won’t fly with them. My Oscar Watch posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
**Blogger’s Note (09/16): I am revising my prediction for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. It appears to be in more of a limited release than I anticipated so my estimate goes from $3.4 million to $1.7M. That puts it outside of the top five and allows Candyman the five spot.
A trio of newcomers are out Friday, but none stand much of a chance at dethroning Marvel’s sizzling Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. We have Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho, Gerard Butler’s action thriller Copshop, and the Jessica Chastain led biopic The Eyes of Tammy Faye. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I’m not projecting any of the newbies will hit double digits, but I’ll say Eastwood’s latest comes closest. I’m hedging a bit since Macho will stream on HBO Max. However, it should make enough to overshadow Copshop (though Butler has over performed in the past).
The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a tricky one since there’s no screen count available at press time. The pic is garnering Oscar buzz for Chastain. My estimate could fluctuate. For now, I have it in a battle with Free Guy for the four spot.
As mentioned, Shang-Chi should have no issue making it three weeks on top. A low 40s drop might put it just over $20 million.
And with that, my take on the top 5:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $20.1 million
2. Cry Macho
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
3. Copshop
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
4. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
5. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (September 10-12)
It was a glorious weekend for Shang-Chi as it achieved the best sophomore frame of any feature during COVID. The MCU blockbuster took in $34.7 million, a tad below my $36.4 million prediction. The ten-day is up to an impressive $144 million. While Rings fell short of Black Widow‘s pandemic era best start, it held up considerably better for the follow-up.
Free Guy was second with $5.5 million as it crossed the century mark at $101 million. My projection? $5.5 million!
Despite plenty of internet chatter over the weekend due to its wild twists, James Wan’s horror flick Malignant stalled with audiences (though many may view it on HBO Max). It was third at $5.4 million, falling under my $7.6 million take.
Candyman held the four spot at $4.7 million (I said $5.1 million) as its made $47 million.
Jungle Cruise rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I was right there at $2.4 million) and it sails in with $109 million overall.
**Blogger’s Note (09/16): On the eve of its premiere, it seems this is opening in a more limited fashion than I originally thought. Therefore my estimate is revised down from $3.4 million to $1.7 million.
Fresh off its Toronto Film Festival premiere yesterday, The Eyes of Tammy Faye makes its way to multiplexes on Friday. From director Michael Showalter (best known for The Big Sick), the biopic of televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker is already generating Oscar buzz for Jessica Chastain. Andrew Garfield plays hubby Jim with a supporting cast including Vincent D’Onofrio and Cherry Jones.
Reviews for the film itself are decent (it’s at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes). Eyes is not available on any streaming service. The theatrical only output presents one current challenge for this estimator. I have yet to see a screen count and that makes projecting an opening gross challenging.
I may well revise this prediction when I do see some numbers, but a baseline in the $3-4 million range sounds reasonable at the moment.
The Eyes of Tammy Faye opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
The Best Actress race just got more interesting and we can thank Jessica Chastain for that. Michael Showalter’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye has emerged from the Toronto Film Festival. While the reviews for the film are mixed, Chastain’s performance as Tammy Faye Bakker is drawing raves.
Based on a 2000 documentary, this dramatized bio of the extreme makeup wearing televangelist and her husband Jim (Andrew Garfield) has never been pegged as much of a Best Picture contender. The critical reaction confirms that. Mr. Garfield is getting some solid notices. I question whether he gains traction in the acting derby. He’ll have another shot in 2021 with the as yet unseen Tick, Tick… Boom! If that one doesn’t materialize, Searchlight could push him in supporting.
Chastain is another story with her viability. She appears firmly in line for her third nomination. The first was in 2011 in supporting for The Help. Her second came the next year in lead for Zero Dark Thirty. Not only does she seem headed for Oscar recognition, she could be a threat to win. In other words, we may not want to crown Kristen Stewart (Spencer) the victor yet.
Makeup and Hairstyling is another obvious race where this could get in. Perhaps the gaudy 80s fashion will be noticed for Costume Design.
Bottom line: a couple of weeks back, I boldly declared that you could write Kristen Stewart’s Best Actress inclusion in pen. Here we go again for the second pronouncement… I think you can do the same with Chastain. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
With the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals having just wrapped and Toronto going strong, there are fresh updates to my Oscar predictions in every category but Director!
Of course, the big question from the past week might be: Will a movie with the word “pizza” in it finally get a Best Picture nomination? That’s more possible than ever since Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest (which had the working title Soggy Bottom) is now apparently called Licorice Pizza. It makes perfect sense if you research the setting.
It’ll be a while before we know how much of a contender that one actually is. There is some movement based on actual buzz and it starts with Stephen Karam’s The Humans, which has screened at Toronto. I believe it could make the BP cut and I’ve got it in. I’m also returning West Side Story to the top ten. Dropping out are CODA and King Richard, though either could certainly find themselves back in the mix.
In other developments:
Penelope Cruz’s Venice win for Best Actress gets her back in the top five. Falling out is Jennifer Hudson for Respect.
I now have Bradley Cooper as a double nominee. In addition to him maintaining the top spot in Supporting Actor for Pizza (that’s gonna take some getting used to), he’s listed in Actor for Nightmare Alley. He takes the place of Adam Driver in House of Gucci.
With category placement still in flux for certain pics, I’ve chosen to put the ensemble for Belfast all in supporting. That means Caitriona Balfe is in for Supporting Actress over her costar Judi Dench. I’m also elevating Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans) and dropping Marlee Matlin (CODA). Furthermore, I have Frances McDormand moved to supporting from lead and she sits just on the outside at #6. Kirsten Dunst takes over the #1 position over Ann Dowd in Mass.
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) also enters the competition in supporting instead of lead, but he’s not in my five. There is one change: Jason Isaacs (Mass) over Jared Leto (House of Gucci).
C’Mon C’Mon gets the 5th slot in Original Screenplay over Spencer. And Belfast is now listed first instead of Pizza.
In Adapted Screenplay, The Humans and The Lost Daughter make the cut over The Tragedy of Macbeth and CODA. The latter did not have a good week as you can see (dropping out of Picture, Supporting Actress, and here).
We are mere hours away from knowing whether Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) deserves her #3 placement in Actress. Those developments and more will be available when I update next Sunday. Until then, you can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 6)
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) – formerly Soggy Bottom
8. West Side Story (PR: 11)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
10. The Humans (PR: 14)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 10)
12. King Richard (PR: 9)
13. The Hand of God (PR: 17)
14. Mass (PR: 12)
15. Spencer (PR: 13)
16. The French Dispatch (PR: 19)
17. Flee (PR: 16)
18. A Hero (PR: 15)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 20)
20. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Passing (PR: 24)
22. Being the Ricardos (PR: 22)
23. Cyrano (PR: 18)
24. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 25)
25. Parallel Mothers (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 5)
5. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 10)
9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: 15)
11. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9)
12. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 13)
14. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 11)
15. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristin Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
7. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 15)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 13)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12)
13. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 14)
14. Tessa Thompson, Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (moved to Supporting Actress)
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5)
5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 13)
13. Filippo Scott, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Simon Rex, Red Rocket (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast (moved to Supporting)
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
8. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 7)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
10. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 3)
12. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
13. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9)
14. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 11)
15. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Olga Merediz, In the Heights
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3)
4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
5. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
8. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7)
9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8)
10. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
11. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
13. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Adapting his own Tony Award winning play, Stephen Karam’s The Humans has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival. The initial buzz is encouraging for Oscar consideration. A Thanksgiving drama that critics are already calling a different kind of horror experience, the ensemble includes Beanie Feldstein, Steven Yeun, Jayne Houdyshell, Richard Jenkins, Amy Schumer, and June Squibb.
Coming as no real surprise, it’s Houdyshell (the only holdover from Broadway) and Jenkins who stand the best shots at acting recognition. Jenkins is a two-time nominee (once in lead for 2008’s The Visitor and in supporting for 2017’s The Shape of Water). Houdyshell is a newcomer to the dance. Based on early chatter, I suspect both have excellent shots in their respective supporting fields.
It is possible that the dark material (even the praising write-ups call it cold) could prevent The Humans from reaching Picture. However, I feel better about its chances now that it’s screened. Same goes for Adapted Screenplay. If it really catches the fancy of the Academy, the leftover effect could even be Karam making a bid for his direction.
Bottom line: The Humans has put itself in contention for numerous races. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Malignant is exactly the kind of movie you get to make if you’re responsible for the success of three hugely profitable horror franchises like Saw, Insidious, and The Conjuring Universe. That’s James Wan and he’s also dabbled in other cinematic series by directing Furious 7 and Aquaman. Here he gets to return to his roots and clearly do whatever he pleases. Maybe I’m splitting hairs, but I volleyed between wanting to commend and condemn him for it.
A prologue set in 1993 introduces us in dimly lit fashion with Gabriel. He’s a young psychiatric patient who can control electricity and speaks in a manner where he sounds like he’s on a bad Zoom conference call. There’s also some serious killing skills involved.
In the present day, he reappears in the visions of Madison Lake (Annabelle Wallis). The Seattle native lives in a creepy home with her creepy abusive husband Derek (Jake Abel). She’s preggers and anxious after suffering previous miscarriages. A fight with Derek results in the appearance of Gabriel that leaves her a widow.
Turns out that Madison shares a connection with the murderer that’s stronger than his cell phone connection when he threatens victims. Writing a proper review would spoil the surprises of what’s to come, so I’ll be careful. Gabriel is exacting revenge on some medical professional who scarred his childhood. The adopted Madison must exorcise repressed memories from her own upbringing to solve the mystery. Helping our central figure is sister Sydney (Maddie Hasson). Searching for the bloody connection between Madison and Gabriel are two detectives – sympathetic Kekoa (George Young) and no nonsense Regina (Michole Briana White).
Much of the backstory is told via grainy videotapes. That seems appropriate as Wan is paying homage to 1980s slashers that would have went straight to the aisle for your VHS perusing. There’s cheesy dialogue, a reliance on splatter over scares, and I never had a doubt that Wan is having a ball getting away with making it. This might have gotten a lengthy writeup in Fangoria magazine and I bet its maker would’ve loved that. The magazine still exists but the article woulda been cooler in 1985.
Malignant is bound to be debated by genre fans for its WTF twist that occurs in the third act. I won’t lie – I grinned ear to ear when first revealed. Yet it was more of a reaction to the filmmaker getting a $40 million budget to put this out to unsuspecting viewers. Wan is a master craftsman and there are a few moments of technical bravura. Conversely there’s plenty of times where it looks like his cheapest pic since Saw and that’s not an accident.
I could never fully escape the thought that Wan is having more fun than I was. The first half of Malignant isn’t much different than your run-of-the-mill sound effects laden fright fest. Once it reaches the aforementioned nutty turning point, I admired the brazenness more than the execution.
Eva Husson’s romantic British period piece Mothering Sunday sure looks like an awards contender on paper. Based on a 2016 novel by Graham Swift, the Lionsgate release (out stateside November 19) originally debuted at Cannes and has made its way to the Toronto Film Festival. Starring Odessa Young and Josh O’Connor, Sunday also features a trio of Oscar winner in its supporting cast (Olivia Colman, Colin Firth, Glenda Jackson).
Reviews thus far are pleasing with a 93% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Calling it a bleaker story set in a Downton Abbey world, this could find a niche audience. Yet even the positive critical reaction doesn’t indicate to me that it will resonate with the Academy. Competition could simply be too steep to make a play in the major races like Picture or Adapted Screenplay. Furthermore it’s said the high-profile supporting cast may not receive enough screen time to contend. Don’t cry for Colman, however. She’s already in the mix in Best Actress for The Lost Daughter.
Bottom line: perhaps Sunday could pop up in Production or Costume Design (though I doubt it) and that’s about the best hope. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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