Concluding a trilogy started in 2014, Maze Runner: The Death Cure races into theaters next Friday. Based on the James Dashner series of YA books, the sci-fi action pic stars Dylan O’Brien, Kaya Scodelario, Thomas Brodie-Sangster, Will Poulter, Nathalie Emmanuel, Giancarlo Esposito, Walton Goggins, Barry Pepper, and Patricia Clarkson. Wes Ball, who directed the first two installments, returns behind the camera. Reviews are so so thus far with a 40% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The reported $83 million production was originally scheduled for release in February 2017 until an injury suffered by star O’Brien on the set delayed production. The nearly two and a half-year lag time between sequels could be a hindrance to its potential.
In September 2014, the original Runner opened to $32 million with an eventual $102 million domestic haul. Sequel The Scorch Trials arrived one year later to diminishing returns – a $30 million debut and $81 million overall take. Enough of the fan base may stick around, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Death take in about 25% less out of the gate than its predecessor in 2015.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million
It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.
As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.
And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
4. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
6. Pan
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)
As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).
Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.
Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.
Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.
That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.
Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
October rolls along at the box office as family friendly Pan debuts while The Walk expands and critically approved thriller 99 Homes opens in more limited fashion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Pan and The Walk right here:
Pan has been the subject of many negative reviews and it doesn’t help that Hotel Transylvania 2 should still be playing quite well with its intended audience in weekend #3. That leads me to predict that the Peter Pan story will only manage a third place showing out of the gate. The Walk actually had a fairly disappointing roll out in its limited IMAX release and I have it doing low double digits for a fourth place premiere. 99 Homes with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon is only opening on approximately 500 screens. It’s flying under the radar and I have it pegged for a gross of $1.8 million, far outside the top five (and maybe even top ten).
As for holdovers, Ridley Scott’s The Martian with Matt Damon blasted off to a terrific debut and word of mouth is strong. I don’t believe its drop will be very big and it should easily repeat at #1, with Hotel Transylvania 2 continuing its impressive haul in the runner up spot. The Intern and Sicario should battle for the five spot.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Pan
Predicted Gross: $17.6 milion
4. The Walk
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
5. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
6. Sicario
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (October 2-4)
As mentioned, The Martian exceeded expectations, capitalizing on stellar reviews for a $54.3 million opening (well beyond my $40.3M estimate). That’s good for the second biggest October premiere of all time, just behind Gravity from 2013. It’s also Matt Damon’s second highest debut after The Bourne Ultimatum.
Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 held up better than my prognostication with $32.9 million in its sophomore frame, compared to my $26.2M forecast. It’s made $90 million so far.
Border thriller Sicario had a pretty sturdy wide release with $12 million, not quite matching my $13M prediction. Strong reviews helped and it hopes to experience fairly small declines in subsequent weekends.
In its second weekend, The Intern with Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro held up well with $11.6 million compared to my $10.5M estimate and its two week total stands at $36 million.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials was fifth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2M forecast to bring its gross to $63 million. Sixth place belonged to Black Mass with $5.8 million ($52M total). I incorrectly had it outside the top six because I predicted Everest would be in the spot. It was seventh with $5.6 million (below my $7.7M estimate) to brings its underwhelming total to $33 million.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Two new adult themed titles compete against the second weekend of the record setting animated pic Hotel Transylvania 2. They are the Ridley Scott sci fi pic The Martian with Matt Damon and border crime thriller Sicario, which has earned great reviews and expands nationwide after a stellar limited release. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
The Martian shouldn’t have much trouble opening #1, though my prediction is a bit below what some other prognosticators have it pegged at. I don’t believe it’ll reach the September record that the Transylvania sequel just set, but you never know (more on that below).
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Transylvania 2 should drop to second with all other holdovers dipping in the low to mid 40s range. That could mean a close competition for the five spot between Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Everest while the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern should have fourth to itself.
That means I’m predicting Sicario will open third in its expanded roll out.
And with that, a top six predictions for this weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $40.3 million
2. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $26.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Sicario
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Everest
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (September 25-27)
As mentioned, the Adam Sandler animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 beat its own predecessor’s record for the biggest September debut in box office history. I incorrectly had it grossing less out of the gate than the original three years ago, but it took in a terrific $47.5 million, blasting past my $34.1M estimate.
The Intern had a stellar debut with $17.7 million, a bit under my $19 million prediction and represents a nice mid size hit for Ms. Hathaway and Mr. De Niro.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials dipped to third in its second weekend with $14.2 million, a little under my $16.1M prediction and the YA sequel stands at $51 million.
The mountain climbing action thriller Everest expanded nationally and posted results that were less than expected. It earned $13.2 million, below my $17.6M estimate.
Johnny Depp’s Black Mass rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $11 million, under my $13.5M forecast. Its two week total is at $42 million.
Finally, Eli Roth’s long delayed horror flick The Green Inferno opened in ninth place with just $3.5 million – though it did exceed my $2.5M prediction.
It could be a highly unpredictable weekend at the box office as three new releases come out and another expands wide. We have Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2, the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern, and long delayed Eli Roth horror pic The Green Inferno. Additionally, Everest expands wide after its impressive roll out on a few hundred IMAX screens this past week. You can find my detailed prediction posts on the three newbies here:
As I see it, Transylvania should really have no trouble winning the weekend, though I have it pegged to gross less than its predecessor did three years ago. I also look for The Intern to have a healthy debut just under the $20M range.
The big question mark is Everest. I think the range of grosses for its wide release premiere could be as low as $12 million to as high as the mid-20s range. Ultimately I think it reaches a gross somewhere in the high teens for a third place showing.
The Green Inferno looks like a flop and my $2.5 million estimate for it leaves it well outside the top five.
As for holdovers, current champ Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials should lose close to half its opening audience while Johnny Depp’s Black Mass may not fall quite that far.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $34.1 million
2. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $19 million
3. Everest
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
4. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Black Mass
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (September 18-20)
YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials got off to a commendable start while not reaching the level its predecessor managed a year. Trials earned $30.3 million, a bit below my $33.8M estimate.
Johnny Depp’s acclaimed Whitney Bulger biopic Black Mass (which is earning Oscar buzz for its star) made $22.6 million out of the gate, below my $27.9M prediction. This is still a nice start and I look for it to continue doing well in subsequent weekends.
M. Night Shyamalan’s The Visit was third in weekend two with $11.5 million, higher than my $9.7M prognostication. The low budget horror title has taken in $42 million so far.
Last weekend’s champ The Perfect Guy dropped to the four spot with $9.6 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate and its two week total stands at $41 million.
The aforementioned Everest was fifth on an IMAX only limited release with $7.2 million, a tad under my $8.6M forecast. Still, its future is looking pretty bright.
Finally, the faith based thriller Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara stalled even worse than I predicted with just $1.3 million for 11th place. I estimated $2.3 million.
And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…
Two promising box office prospects hit the multiplexes Friday as YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Johnny Depp gangster flick Black Mass roll out. On a more limited number of screens, the hostage drama Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara will also debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:
As I see it, Maze Runner should debut on top but I think the race could be closer than anticipated. In fact, my prediction on Scorch Trials is a bit lower than some of my fellow prognosticators. I look for Mass to have a healthy start with its positive buzz that includes Oscar nomination talk for Depp. As for Captive, my $2.3 million prediction on it should leave outside the top five.
As for holdovers, both The Perfect Guy and The Visit premiered to impressive results (more on that below). Look for both to experience hefty declines in weekend two, but they’ve both already proven to be huge hits for their studios.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
**Blogger’s note: I have altered my predictions as of Tuesday, September 15th due to my predicted gross of Everest, which debuts on approximately 500 screens IMAX screens only Friday. I feel that’ll be enough to get it in the top five. My full prediction post on Everest will be posted on blog Tuesday evening.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trails
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Black Mass
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
3. The Perfect Guy
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 60%)
4. The Visit
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)
5. Everest
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
Box Office Results (September 11-13)
Thriller The Perfect Guy got off to a great start with $25.8 million over the weekend, outpacing my $21.9M prediction. With a tiny $12 million budget, it managed to double its budget in three days.
M. Night Shyamalan found himself in the position of having a hit once again as The Visit followed closely behind in second with $25.4 million, topping my $17M estimate. With an even tinier budget of $5M budget, it quintupled its meager budget and gave its director his first huge hit since The Village over a decade ago.
Faith based drama War Room dropped to third with $7.7 million, a bit shy of my $8.9M prediction. Its three week total stands at a strong $39M.
A Walk in the Woods dropped to fourth with $4.7 million, falling further my $7.7M forecast and it’s made $20M so far.
I incorrectly didn’t list Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in my estimates but it took fifth place with $4.1 million to bring its cume to $188M.
That’s because I mistakenly believed another faith based pic, 90 Minutes in Heaven, would perform much stronger than it did. While I had it opening third with $10.5 million, it flopped with just $2 million for a weak ninth place showing. Oops.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Premiering one year after its predecessor, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials hopes to built upon the solid grosses the franchise began with and perhaps surpass them. The dystopian series, based on popular YA novels by T.S. Nowlin, brings back original stars including Dylan O’Brien and Patricia Clarkson along with some other recognizable faces like Giancarlo Esposito, Barry Pepper and Lili Taylor.
Some prognosticators have Scorch Trails debuting considerably higher than the first film. I’m just not convinced. The original opened on the same weekend last year to the tune of $32.5 million with an eventual domestic gross of $102M. Predictions reflecting a belief that this will manage mid 40s or higher seem a tad lofty for me.
For comparison sake, a similarly themed franchise that began with Divergent made $54 million out of the gate and its sequel this year Insurgent rolled out with a slightly smaller $52 million. I do believe Scorch Trials will outdo the first, but not by much at all.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million
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