Oscars 2019: The Case of Little Women

My Case of posts discussing the pros and cons of Oscar nominees in the major categories continues with Best Picture hopeful Little Women from director Greta Gerwig. If you missed my first four write-ups in the biggest race of all, you can read them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/14/oscars-2019-the-case-of-ford-v-ferrari/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/15/oscars-2019-the-case-of-the-irishman/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/17/oscars-2019-the-case-of-jojo-rabbit/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/18/oscars-2019-the-case-of-joker/

The Case for Little Women

Based on the beloved 1868 Louisa May Alcott novel, Gerwig’s version of Little Women drew raves from the critical community. The 95% Rotten Tomatoes rating stands among the highest of the nine pictures. Previous adaptations have garnered Academy attention as well. The 1994 rendering saw Winona Ryder nominated for Actress in addition to Costume Design and Score. Back in 1949, that version took home Art Direction and got a Cinematography nod. Yet this is the first adaptation since 1933’s classic to be named in Best Picture. The box office is strong at $80 million as it looks to top the century mark before the ceremony airs.

The Case Against Little Women

It has missed numerous nominations in key precursors. The pic was ignored by SAG and didn’t get named in Picture at the Golden Globes. Gerwig didn’t make the final cut in Best Director from the Academy. As discussed before, it’s rare for the Picture recipient to win without attention there. Many prognosticators even questioned whether it would make it in this race and the same can be said for Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh in their acting categories (though they did get in). The six nominations are certainly under the total count of the heavy hitters.

The Verdict

It is a remote possibility that Gerwig could win Adapted Screenplay since she was snubbed for Director. As far as this taking Best Picture, I wouldn’t look for the fourth time to be the charm among Alcott adaptations. This appears to be heading the route of Gerwig’s previous acclaimed effort Lady Bird which had five nominations and zero victories.

Up next in my Case of posts… Marriage Story!

Little Women Box Office Prediction

It’s certainly not the first adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s period drama novel released over 150 years ago, but the latest version of Little Women is the first for this generation. Greta Gerwig (coming off her Oscar nominated Lady Bird) directs and reunites with her star Saoirse Ronan. Other costars include Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Eliza Scanlen, Laura Dern, Timothee Chalamet, Tracy Letts, Bob Odenkirk, Chris Cooper, and Meryl Streep.

The reported $40 million production is garnering Oscar buzz and the Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 97%. As mentioned, this is the first adaptation of the famed novel since 1994. Winona Ryder and Susan Sarandon headlined that iteration, which took in $50 million at the time domestically.

Little Women should prove to be a strong option for the female audience over the long holiday weekend. It opens Christmas Day and if history is any guide, its Wednesday and Thursday earnings might be about equal to the traditional weekend Friday to Sunday haul.

I’ll say the March sisters begin in the low to mid teens range for the final 2019 weekend and that means mid to high 20s for the five-day rollout.

Little Women opening weekend prediction: $14.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Spies in Disguise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/17/spies-in-disguise-box-office-prediction/

For my Uncut Gems prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/22/uncut-gems-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Little Women

It’s been just over 150 years since Louisa May Alcott’s novel was published and 25 years since the last cinematic version to garner awards attention has been released. Now Greta Gerwig takes her turn adapting the classic Little Women for the big screen. Somewhat surprisingly, the pic skipped this fall’s festival circuit, but its first industry screenings were held this week.

The verdict? Advance word of mouth indicate it’s a winner, but its inclusion in Best Picture remains on the bubble. Same can be said for Director. Women comes two years after Gerwig broke out with Oscar voters for Lady Bird. She was nominated for her work behind the camera and for Original Screenplay. This time around, her inclusion in Adapted Screenplay seems feasible in a field that is a tad less crowded than Original.

A big question mark has been which actors from the ensemble cast will emerge as contenders. Saoirse Ronan (Gerwig’s Best Actress nominated Bird star) appears likely to get a nod for lead here. For Supporting Actress, voters have Florence Pugh, Meryl Streep, Laura Dern, and Emma Watson to choose from. Buzz strongly suggests Pugh is the most probable and deserving of the quartet. As for Dern, she’s already headed for a nomination for Marriage Story. Streep, who can never be totally counted out, appears destined to come up short (as is the case with her work in The Laundromat). The legend may have to be content with her 21 previous nominations and three victories. Timothee Chalamet is said to be a standout here, but Supporting Actor is extremely packed already and he’ll probably find himself on the outside looking in.

Down ballot nods for Production and Costume Design are near certainties and Alexandre Desplat’s score is a strong contender as well. Bottom line: Little Women could find itself in the awards mix in a major way. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…