Box Office Predictions: February 20-22

Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.

Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.

And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. McFarland, USA

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

7. The DUFF

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 13-15)

Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.

Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.

Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.

American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.

That’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

http://youtu.be/dQDilmi8RwI

Box Office Predictions: February 13-15

It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/fifty-shades-of-grey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/kingsman-the-secret-service-box-office-prediction/

The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $63.1 million

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Jupiter Ascending

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.

American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.

Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.

Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.

Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.

That’s all for now folks! Until next time…

Kingsman: The Secret Service Box Office Prediction

It certainly doesn’t have the name recognition of your Avengers or X-Men, but Kingsman: The Secret Service still may use its superhero related formula to bring in successful box office results. Based on a 2012 comic book, the 20th Century Fox production utilizes some familiar names and faces in its genre. Matthew Vaughn, director of X-Men: First Class, serves behind the camera with Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and Alfred the Butler (Michael Caine) in supporting roles. Oscar winner Colin Firth headlines.

The spy action comedy has been receiving mostly strong critical notices and it stands at 80% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Kingsman could serve as smart counter programming for the male audience as much of the female audience will be watching Christian Grey and whips and blindfolds. Trailers and TV spots have been prevalent and well produced.

I’ll estimate that Kingsman manages a sturdy debut of around $30 million. That’s less than half what I’m predicting Fifty Shades makes, but it’s still quite good for this picture.

Kingsman: The Secret Service opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million

For my Fifty Shades of Grey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/fifty-shades-of-grey-box-office-prediction/

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