Tag: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

July 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Jurassic World Rebirth achieved the third best debut of 2025, but Superman will attempt to do the same on Friday. James Gunn’s DC reboot of the iconic superhero franchise is the only new wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

Superman Box Office Prediction

In order to reach that third best mark, it’ll need to top Rebirth‘s low 90s start (more on that below). I’m projecting it’ll do so with plenty of room to spare while not reaching the heights of A Minecraft Movie or Lilo & Stitch. My mid to high 120s projection puts it just ahead of 2013’s Man of Steel which kicked off the previous iteration of the series.

As for Rebirth, I’m estimating a sophomore drop around 60%. That would it in line with the second weekend dips for Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and Jurassic World: Dominion. It is possible that the Superman competition and the ho-hum B Cinemascore could mean a more precipitous fall.

Holdovers F1, How to Train Your Dragon, and Elio should populate the rest of the top 5 and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $128.6 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

3. F1

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. How to Train You Dragon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. Elio

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (July 4-6)

Jurassic World Rebirth didn’t match the grosses of the three previous Jurassic World experiences. The dino adventure from Gareth Edwards did, however, manage to outdo most expectations including mine. It ruled over the holiday frame with $92 million from Friday to Sunday and $147.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That exceeds my respective forecasts of $80.8 million and $133 million. The long-running franchise is certainly not extinct and we can anticipate future sequels.

I miscalculated the staying power of F1 in its second lap. The racing drama was second with $25.7 million (a 55% ease). My $39.7 million estimate was obviously far more generous as I assumed word-of-mouth would carry it to a sturdier hold. The ten-day take is still a commendable $109 million and the overseas earnings are impressive.

How to Train Your Dragon was third with $11.2 million, a bit below my $12.9 million call. The live-action remake of the animated pic is up to $224 million in four weeks.

Disney/Pixar’s woes continued as the disappointing Elio was fourth with $5.7 million (I said $6.2 million). The three-week total is just $55 million.

28 Years Later rounded out the top five with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5 million! It’s made $60 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Jurassic World Rebirth

None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.

The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.

Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Jurassic World Rebirth Box Office Prediction

Jurassic World Rebirth looks to rule the Independence Day holiday frame beginning July 2nd. This is now the third iteration of the dino franchise that kicked off with 1993’s Jurassic Park from Steven Spielberg and the seventh entry overall. Gareth Edwards, no stranger to franchise fare with Godzilla and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in his discography, directs. Scarlett Johansson headlines the cast that features Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo.

The second Jurassic trilogy premiered in spectacular fashion a decade back when Jurassic World made $208 million out of the gate and $652 million domestically. The follow-ups performed well though with diminishing results. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in 2018 debuted at $148 million and $417 million overall. 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion was barely behind at $145 million and $376 million in total.

I anticipate that Rebirth will continue the downward trend. When World opened 10 years ago, there was pent up anticipation for the franchise with a nostalgia factor in play. Such factors are diluted with only a three-year layover between entries. It doesn’t help that Dominion was generally considered a disappointment.

That means the streak of Jurassic tales making nine figures in the traditional weekend is endangered. I’ll say high 70s to low 80s is likelier. However, the five-day could top $130 million.

Jurassic World Rebirth opening weekend prediction: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Oscar Predictions: Society of the Snow

J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow served as the closing night feature at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month and, as expected, has been submitted by Spain as their Oscar hopeful for International Feature Film. The survival drama is expected to be streaming on Netflix by year’s end. It tells the real life tale of Uruguayan Flight 571’s crash in the Andes Mountains in 1972. Bayona is no stranger to disaster dramas with 2012’s The Impossible, which nabbed Naomi Watts a Best Actress nod. His last pic was 2018’s dino sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Based on a small sampling (9 reviews), Snow has lodged a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Spain has had a spotty record getting their selections into the final five with the Academy. In the 21st century, The Sea Inside was the 2004 winner and 2019’s Pain and Glory was nominated. That’s where their luck ends.

I currently have Snow at #7 in IFF. Its chances are decent and getting a lot of eyeballs via Netflix should only assist. If I’m betting now, however, I’ll say it makes the shortlist and not the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARndpfgm9Jo

Jurassic World: Dominion Review

When the predecessor to Jurassic World: Dominion was unveiled in the summer of 2018, it proved the franchise had indeed fallen to a new level of mediocrity. Fallen Kingdom was a huge disappointment. As much as I wanted to give it credit for trying some new things, the execution failed. Despite a couple of cool set pieces and the dinosaurs still looking cool, I found Kingdom to be the worst of the five in the series.

Dominion challenges that status. Colin Trevorrow made 2015’s Jurassic World. While many of the complaints about it were valid, I still found it to be satisfactory even if did lean hard on the nostalgia angle. After J.A. Bayona handled directorial duties for #2, Trevorrow is back behind the camera here and the nostalgic leanings are in full force. So much so that the three stars of 1993’s iconic Jurassic Park – Sam Neill’s Dr. Alan Grant, Laura Dern’s Dr. Ellie Sattler, Jeff Goldblum’s Dr. Ian Malcolm – are mixing it up with Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, and their sort of daughter who may or may not be a clone.

In case you forgot (and I wouldn’t blame you if you did), Fallen Kingdom thrust human cloning upon us as a plot point. Isabella Sermon’s Maisie was revealed to be the recipient of such experimentation and now she’s a young teen living with Pratt’s Owen and Howard’s Claire deep in the woods. She’s not allowed to go anywhere because many would like to continue experimenting on her. Her isolation is wearing on her as she seeks to break out of her small radius. As you may also recall, dinosaurs are now roaming freely across parts of the world (including Maisie’s backyard).

There’s one corporation who’d like to snatch Maisie and her Dino friends. Biosyn Genetics is run by Dr. Lewis Dodgson (Campbell Scott). Located in the Italian mountains, the futuristic company has its greedy hands in all kinds of pots. The main one involves locusts. Yes, a significant portion of Dominion‘s plot involves these crop eating creatures and Biosyn’s plans to control the world’s food supply. If that seems like an out of nowhere storyline that has little to do with dinosaurs, you’d be correct.

However, these CG locusts do give an excuse to bring back Neill and Dern’s characters when they travel to Italy to investigate (Goldblum is already working for the company). When Maisie is snatched up, Owen and Claire find themselves trekking overseas as well for what we know will eventually be a melding of the stars of both trilogies.

There’s some new characters including DeWanda Wise’s cocky Air Force pilot and Mamoudou Athie as Dodgson’s morally conflicted right hand man. The real thrill is meant to be the return of the OG players from three decades ago. Here’s the rub – despite Jurassic Park being amazing, its one minor flaw was its human characters (with the exception of Goldblum) being a bit dull. Seeing Neill and Dern reignite their unrequited passion isn’t exactly Han showing up on the Millennium Falcon with Chewie after 30 years. I’ve already discussed the lack of passion between Owen and Claire in my review of the predecessor.

Where Dominion manages to be a very slight improvement over Kingdom is a couple of expertly constructed action sequences. A car chase involving the prehistoric creatures in Malta is legitimately thrilling. These brief moments of excitement are too often interrupted by humdrum fan service, cloning, and attacks of the locusts. In other words, there’s a couple of cool set pieces and the dinosaurs still look cool. It’s not enough. The Jurassic series veered off course with Kingdom and it doesn’t regain much footing in Dominion. 

** (out of four)

June 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/23): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my Elvis prediction from $42.6M to $35.6M. That still gives it the #1 slot over Top Gun: Maverick… barely.

In what should be an intriguing and potentially unpredictable weekend to close out the June box office, Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic Elvis and critically lauded horror pic The Black Phone debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

Elvis Box Office Prediction

The Black Phone Box Office Prediction

There’s plenty of possibilities for how the top 5 will look. While there’s no doubt about which quintet will populate the list, the order is up for grabs. I believe Elvis will open closer to the $51 million of Bohemian Rhapsody than the $25 million of Rocketman. That should be enough to earn it the title of Box Office King.

However, if it does premiere in the mid to late 20s range, the chances of a #1 start are considerably lower. We could legitimately see Top Gun: Maverick rise from 3rd to 1st. With a projected dip in the low to mid 20s, it should at least rise to 2nd place. That’s assuming current two-week champ Jurassic World: Dominion loses more than half its audience in its third go-round and Lightyear also sees a sophomore fall of around 55%. I’m assuming both.

And there’s the wild card that is The Black Phone. Horror titles often outdo expectations and with its aforementioned solid reviews, that could apply here. I’m sticking with a debut of just under $20 million and that would likely mean a fifth place reception.

Here’s how I envision perhaps the most fascinating box office weekend so far in the pandemic era looking:

1. Elvis

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million

2. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million

3. Jurassic World: Dominion

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

4. Lightyear

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

5. The Black Phone

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

Box Office Results (June 17-19)

In a major upset, Jurassic World: Dominion remained #1 for the second frame with $59.1 million. That’s stronger than my $54.8 million estimate as the threequel is up to $250 million in its first ten days. That’s $15 million under where predecessor was at four summers ago.

Jurassic‘s reign was unexpected because Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story spinoff Lightyear was widely anticipated to rule the charts. Instead it grossed $50.5 million for second place. That’s, ahem, $35 million under my projection of $85.5 million and less than half of what Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 made out of the gate. There’s plenty of think pieces out there for why Lightyear was a disappointment. It includes theories about politics, Disney Plus being the same day distributor for recent Pixar material, and the absence of Tim Allen as the voice of the title character. Any way you slice it, it’s a shocker.

Top Gun: Maverick continued its amazing run in third with $44.6 million – dropping a scant 14%. I was lower at $36 million. The biggest hit of the year (and of Tom Cruise’s career by far) is flying at $466 million as its domestic haul will reach $500 million shortly. As mentioned, if Elvis doesn’t reach my projection, it could see a return to the top spot. I wrote more about Maverick‘s unreal performance yesterday on the blog and it’s here:

Top Gun: Maverick – Lightyears Ahead of Expectations

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was fourth with $4.4 million compared to my $3.4 million take. The tally is $405 million.

The Bob’s Burgers Movie rounded out the top five with $1.1 million. I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It’s made $29 million.

I figured The Bad Guys would be fifth, but it was sixth with $1 million (I said $1.5 million)/ The overall take is $94 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (06/16): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Lightyear estimate down again – from $95.5M to $85.5M

Blogger’s Note (06/15): Revising my Lightyear estimate down from $101.8M to $95.5M

Disney/Pixar looks to take its usual spot atop the charts with their first theatrical only release since Onward when Lightyear opens this weekend. It’s the only new product debuting as the Toy Story origin tale hopes to be the latest summer offering to top $100 million out of the gate. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Lightyear Box Office Prediction

I’m projecting it will gross just under nine figures and that’s slightly less than the third and fourth editions of the franchise it’s spawned from.

That should easily put it in first position with Jurassic World: Dominion falling to second. After a pretty solid start, I imagine it should suffer an approximate 60% decline like its 2018 predecessor Fallen Kingdom. 

Top Gun: Maverick should cruise to another meager decline for a third place showing in the $30 million range with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and The Bad Guys filling the rest of the top five.

Here’s how I see it:

1. Lightyear

Predicted Gross: $85.5 million

2. Jurassic World: Dominion

Predicted Gross: $54.8 million

3. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $36 million

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $1.5 million

Box Office Results (June 10-12)

Jurassic World: Dominion couldn’t quite match what Fallen Kingdom accomplished four summers ago. The sixth entry in the nearly three decade old franchise earned $145 million, falling short of my $155.3 million expectation. Middling reviews (it has the worst Tomatoes score of the flock) probably pushed it a little lower than initially forecasted, but it’s still a respectable start.

Top Gun: Maverick dropped to second after two soaring frames at #1 with $51.8 million. I went a touch higher at $58.8 million and the three week take is an amazing $395 million. The total is good for the 10th largest third weekend in domestic history.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was third with $5.2 million. My projection? $5.2 million! The MCU juggernaut has amassed $398 million.

The Bad Guys was fourth with $2.5 million (I said $2.4 million) to bring its earnings close to nine figures with $91 million.

The Bob’s Burgers Movie rounded out the top five at $2.4 million compared to my $2.2 million prediction. It’s made $27 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions – Jurassic World: Dominion

When it comes to the nearly three decades old Jurassic franchise, only the first two (the ones directed by Steven Spielberg) have attracted Oscar attention. The 1993 classic received three nods for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing (those races have since combined), and Visual Effects. It won all three. The 1997 follow-up The Lost World: Jurassic Park managed a Visual Effects mention but lost to Titanic. 

The dinosaurs have failed to make Academy ballots for 2001’s Jurassic Park III and the initial entries in the current trilogy – 2015’s Jurassic World and 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. 

Dominion is the closing chapter that reunites prominent cast members from both trilogies. It’s out Friday and the review embargo is extinct. The result? Only a 40% Rotten Tomatoes which serves as a series worst (predecessor Kingdom previously had the low point at 47%).

So while those creatures might still look cool, I don’t see any chance of a Visual Effects nomination or any others. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

June 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Universal is looking for the dinosaurs to rule the box office landscape for the sixth time with Jurassic World: Dominion. It’s the only new wide release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Jurassic World: Dominion Box Office Prediction

Dominion is the third feature in the second Jurassic trilogy and the numbers could be assisted by melding cast members from the original trilogy with the current one. I’m projecting it’ll improve on the opening weekend of predecessor Fallen Kingdom, but not approach the $200M+ debut of Jurassic World. That said – I have a strange feeling it might underperform so check back to see if my projection shifts later this week.

Top Gun: Maverick will be the runner-up after two incredible weeks on top including an astonishing sophomore hold (more on that below). It had no competition this past weekend and the dinos should eat into its grosses. Even with Dominion around, it still may only drop in the 40-45% range… maybe even less.

The rest of the top five should be populated by holdovers Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Bad Guys, and The Bob’s Burgers Movie. 

Here’s how I see it:

1. Jurassic World: Dominion

Predicted Gross: $155.3 million

2. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $58.8 million

3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

5. The Bob’s Burgers Movie

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (June 3-5)

In a turn of events that was even more impressive than its Memorial Day weekend rollout, Top Gun: Maverick is officially a phenomenon as it dropped only 29%. That means a #1 frame of $90 million – towering over my $67.5 million projection. The number is the 8th largest sophomore output of all time. For perspective – it’s $6 million higher than Spider-Man: No Way Home and just $13 million below what  The Avengers made during the same weekend. It’s the best hold we’ve ever witnessed for a picture that debuted above $100 million. The ten-day tally is $295 million and the sky looks to be the limit.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness remained in second with $9.1 million. My guess? $9.1 million! The MCU behemoth is up to $388 million.

The Bob’s Burgers Movie fell a steep 63% in its second serving with $4.6 million, a bit under my $5.3 million prediction. Total is $22 million.

The Bad Guys took fourth with $3.3 million (I said $3.1 million) as it inches close to the century mark with $87 million.

Downton Abbey: A New Era rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, in line with my $3.2 million estimate for $35 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Jurassic World: Dominion Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (06/08): My prediction for Dominion has fallen… from $165.3M to $155.3M

Two generations of Jurassic actors team up for the release of Dominion on June 10th. I’m also told there are dinosaurs involved. Closing out the trilogy that began with the record breaking Jurassic World seven summers ago, Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard join forces with familiar faces that populated some of the original trilogy – Sam Neill, Laura Dern, and Jeff Goldblum. Other costars include BD Wong, Omar Sy, Isabella Sermon, Justice Smith, Daniella Pineda, DeWanda Wise, Mamoudou Athie, Campbell Scott, Scott Haze, and Dichen Lachman. Colin Trevorrow, who made the 2015 entry but not the 2018 sequel, is back in the director’s seat.

As mentioned, when the dinos came back in 2015, it set the all-time ; the domestic opening with $208 million (that held for six months until Star Wars: The Force Awakens dropped). It eventually made $652 million. Three years later, the lesser regarded Fallen Kingdom started with lesser numbers. The premiere was $148 million with an overall gross of $417 million.

My hunch is that the mixing of stars from nearly three decades ago with Pratt and Howard could push this to better earnings than its predecessor. On the flip side, I don’t see it hitting over $200 million like Jurassic World. This might debut in the middle range of its trilogy counterparts and perhaps closer to Kingdom. 

Jurassic World: Dominion opening weekend prediction: $155.3 million