Tag: JRR Tolkien

Tolkien Box Office Prediction

His fantastical literary works have made billions at the box office and now J.R.R. Tolkien gets the biopic treatment next weekend. Set during World War I, Tolkien casts Nicholas Hoult in the title role of the famed author behind Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit. Finnish director Dome Karukoski is behind the camera and costars include Lily Collins, Colm Meaney, and Derek Jacobi.

This is a rare headlining role for Hoult, sandwiched between supporting parts in The Favourite and X–Men: Dark Phoenix. Critics have been decidedly mixed and its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 54%.

The film has the distinction of being the first Fox Searchlight project distributed by new owner Disney. With zero awards buzz and a smallish theater count of approximately 1300, Tolkien will likely struggle to even see $5 million. Just because its subject matter’s novels are box office gold doesn’t mean this will be.

Tolkien opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million

For my Pokemon Detective Pikachu prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/pokemon-detective-pikachu-box-office-prediction/

For my The Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/the-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Poms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/02/poms-box-office-prediction/

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Box Office Prediction

Over a decade after he wrapped up his historic and Oscar winning Lord of the Rings trilogy, director Peter Jackson wraps up his Hobbit trilogy with The Battle of the Five Armies, out Wednesday.

Moviegoers have been treated to a Hobbit pic around Christmas time for the last three years. 2012’s An Unexpected Journey opened to $84 million on its way to a $303M domestic haul. Last year’s The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t match that number. It debuted to $73 million with an eventual $258M gross. There is some reason to believe Armies could outdo at least Smaug.

For starters, it’s the last of the series which could pique interest for some audience members wishing to bid the franchise a farewell. Reviews have been pretty solid and it sits at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Many high profile critics have gone out of their way to proclaim it the best and most exciting of the trilogy.

Unlike its predecessors, Armies premieres on a Wednesday so a five day prediction is in order. I’ll predict that its five day haul gets over what Journey managed in three days while its Friday to Sunday gross marks the lowest of the franchise due to the expanded rollout.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies opening weekend prediction: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my prediction on Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/night-at-the-museum-secret-of-the-tomb-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Annie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/14/annie-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Wild, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/15/wild-box-office-prediction/

This Day in Movie History: January 2

This day in Movie History – January 2 – Peter Jackson’s final installment in his Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King, would top the box office for the third weekend in a row, grossing over $28 million. This gave it $290M in just three weeks and it would end its domestic run at $377M, out grossing its two predecessors. King would go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. And the more things change, the more they stay the same. Exactly a decade later, the director’s second Tolkien trilogy The Hobbit is scoring similar feats. The second installment in the series The Desolation of Smaug is currently #1 for its third weekend, though its taken in approximately $100 million less in the same time frame as King did.

As for birthdays, Tia Carrere turns 47 today. You may remember her best as Mike Myers’ love interest in 1992’s Wayne’s World and its sequel the following year. Her exposure from those hits led her to starring alongside such heavy hitters as Sean Connery in 1993’s Rising Sun and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1994’s True Lies. And then… well she went from Connery and Arnold to Pauly Shore and Jon Lovitz. Her mid 90s filmography included Jury Duty with Shore and High School High with Lovitz. Her movie career never recovered, but she did recently last five weeks on Donald Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” (!).

Cuba Gooding Jr. is 46 today. He’s another performer to have hit it big in the 90s and then see his career fizzle. His big break came with 1991’s Boyz N The Hood and that led to roles in A Few Good Men, Judgment Night, and Outbreak. In 1996, Cuba won Supporting Actor at the Oscars for his role as Rod Tidwell in Cameron Crowe’s Jerry Maguire. It looked good for him after that and he appeared in high profile pics including As Good As It Gets, What Dreams May Come, and Men of Honor. By the early 2000s, things had taken a turn for the worse when Gooding starred in bombs including Snow Dogs and Boat Trip. Recently, however, he’s had a decent comeback with supporting roles in movies like American Gangster, Red Tails, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Tia Carrere was in True Lies with Jamie Lee Curtis

Jamie Lee Curtis was in Trading Places with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Norbit with Cuba Gooding Jr.

And that’s today – January 2 – in Movie History!

 

Box Office Predictions: January 3-5

The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/29/paranormal-activity-the-marked-ones-box-office-prediction/

Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.

And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:

1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)

6. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)

This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.

And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!