The 2014 box office season kicks off with just one new release, but it’s a high-profile one. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is a spinoff of the popular found footage horror franchise that began in 2009. This is the fifth entry in the series, though it’s being described as a “cousin” and not a direct sequel to what came before (um, OK). To further prove its a spin-off, Paranormal Activity 5 will arrive in theaters on October 24, 2014.
The Marked Ones has a few things going for it: it’s been marketed heavily with the studio especially going after Hispanic audiences in its campaign. It’s a strategy that could certainly pay off. Additionally, there’s been no successful horror pic in nearly three months since Insidious Chapter 2 (the Carrie remake faltered).
However, there’s also the fact that Paranormal Activity 4 was a bit of a disappointment commercially. The second Activity earned $40.6 million in its first weekend and the third hit the high point with $52.5 million out of the gate. #4 took in $29 million in its debut, noticeably less than its predecessors.
There are numerous scenarios I could see with The Marked Ones:
1) It could over perform and open in the range of 2013’s two most successful horror pics – The Conjuring and its $41.9M opening and Insidious Chapter 2 with its $40.3M debut.
2) It could perform right in line with PA4 in the high 20s or low 30s.
3) It could perform right in line with 2013’s Texas Chainsaw 3D, which opened during the same weekend with $21.7 million.
So, of course, I’m not really going with any of those scenarios. I’m predicting The Marked Ones will earn just a bit less than the franchise’s fourth entry, however a higher gross than my prediction seems more feasible than anything lower.
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million