Oscar Predictions: Fly Me to the Moon

Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum look to provide Fly Me to the Moon with some financial liftoff this weekend. The rom com is set during the 1960s space race with Greg Berlanti directing. Costars include Jim Rash, Anna Garcia, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson. Its box office prospects are shaky (I have it debuting to around $12 million) and reviews aren’t gushing.

Fly has a fair if not over the moon 70% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics are praising the star power of the headliners, particularly Johansson. The actress received her first and second Academy noms in 2019 for Marriage Story (lead Actress) and Jojo Rabbit (Supporting Actress). This will not be #3 and I don’t see Moon factoring in anywhere else. However, Johansson could contend in Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes depending on competition strength. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Fly Me to the Moon Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is banking on star power to land Fly Me to the Moon pleasing results when it debuts July 12th. Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum headline the 1960s set romantic dramedy with the Space Race as a backdrop. Nick Dillenburg, Anna Garcia, Jim Rash, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson are in the supporting cast with Love, Simon helmer Greg Berlanti behind the camera.

With a reported $100 million price tag, this a risky bet for its studio (Apple TV has streaming rights for a TBD date). This is counting on adult moviegoers to turn up for a summertime tale with no awards buzz. It is primarily relying on Johansson and Tatum to propel it and that’s asking a lot.

A best case scenario would put this near $20 million, but I think that might be wishful thinking. Low double digits or lower teens seems likelier.

Fly Me to the Moon opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million

For my Longlegs prediction, click here:

Longlegs Box Office Prediction

Bros Box Office Prediction

Billing itself as the first gay rom com from a major studio and featuring an all LGBTQ+ main cast, Universal Pictures releases Bros on September 30th. Nicholas Stoller (director of successful comedies Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Neighbors) is behind the camera with Judd Apatow producing. Billy Eichner of Billy on the Street fame stars alongside Luke Macfarlane. The supporting cast includes Ts Madison, Monica Raymund, Guillermo Diaz, Guy Branum, Amanda Bearse, Jim Rash, Dot-Marie Jones, Bowen Yang, Harvey Fierstein, and Debra Messing.

While this particular humorous tale is making some history, it’s rare nowadays to find any comedy getting a wide release (at least one that’s not animated or filled with action). Bros premiered at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to glowing reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%.

Prognosticators have the range here at $10-15 million. That sounds reasonable and I suspect it’ll start out at the middle of that spectrum. It’ll likely have to settle for a second place showing behind horror pic Smile. However, I could see this legging out well when word-of-mouth gets out. As an aside, I saw Bros at TIFF and can confirm it should be quite the crowdpleaser.

Bros opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Smile prediction, click here:

Smile Box Office Prediction

Downhill Box Office Prediction

A remake of the acclaimed 2014 Swedish comedic drama Force Majeure, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Will Ferrell headline Downhill this weekend. From directors Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, the pic debuted last month at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reaction. Costars include Miranda Otto, Zoe Chao, and Zach Woods.

Downhill is the first official release from the newly coined Searchlight Pictures (formerly Fox Searchlight), which is now owned by Disney. I’m not sure this release gets the moniker off to a solid start. With just 47% on Rotten Tomatoes, this is slated to roll out on a smallish 1500 screens over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend.

Despite its well-known two leads, the muted buzz and lack of theaters has me thinking double digits is out of reach or even $5 million.

Downhill opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)