Bridget Jones’s Baby Box Office Prediction

Bridget Jones’s Baby not only marks the return of a long dormant franchise, but also the return of Oscar winner Renee Zellweger, making her first onscreen appearance in six years. It’s been twice that long since her title character has been in multiplexes.

In 2001, Bridget Jones’s Diary was a solid hit, opening to $10.7 million and displaying great legs to get to $71 million domestic. It also earned its lead a Best Actress nod. The 2004 sequel, Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason, didn’t fare as well with a $40 million eventual gross.

Besides Zellweger returning to one of her most well-known roles, Sharon Maguire (director of the original) is also back. Same with Colin Firth and Jim Broadbent. Not returning: Hugh Grant and the love triangle with Bridget and Mr. Firth is instead completed by Patrick Dempsey.

As I see it, the long wait between entries and middling performance of the second entry doesn’t bode too well here. I highly doubt this can reach the $17.8 million accomplished by My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (another long gestating rom com sequel) earlier this year. After all, the predecessor for that one made $241 million.

My prediction is this doesn’t quite reach teens for its box office birth.

Bridget Jones’s Baby opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my Blair Witch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/07/blair-witch-box-office-prediction/

For my Snowden prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/07/snowden-box-office-prediction/

For my Hillsong – Let Hope Rise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/12/hillsong-let-hope-rise-box-office-prediction/

The Legend of Tarzan Box Office Prediction

Remember three summers ago when the mega-budgeted The Lone Ranger made just $29 million in its first weekend and was a huge disappointment? I give you what could be this year’s Ranger: Warner Bros The Legend of Tarzan, which swings into theaters over July 4th weekend with an estimated $180 million budget. I’m not convinced it’ll reach half its budget domestically when all is said and done.

Based on the iconic character created by Edgar Rice Burroughs, Tarzan is directed by David Yates – the man responsible for the last four Harry Potter pics and this fall’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Alexander Sarsgard is in the title role with Margot Robbie as Jane and Samuel L. Jackson, Christoph Waltz, Djimon Hounsou, and Jim Broadbent among the supporting players.

The biggest hurdle here could be the considerable competition for a family audience. Finding Dory will still be earning a lot in weekend #3 and Steven Spielberg’s The BFG opens the same day. There just doesn’t seem to be much excitement for this and it could get a bit lost in the shuffle. Luckily for Yates, his Beasts project is likely to be a smash. Luckily for Robbie, she’s a just over a month away from Suicide Squad probably doing bang-up business.

I’ll predict a three-day debut in the high teens and a low 20s four-day for the holiday frame. Considering its price tag, that’s bad news at Warner.

The Legend of Tarzan opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The BFG prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-bfg-box-office-prediction/

For my The Purge: Election Year prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-purge-election-year-box-office-prediction/

Big Game Movie Review

“Say cheese” is the final line of Jelmari Helander’s Big Game and it’s an appropriate one because this Finnish director knows he’s paying homage to 80s/90s style PG-13 adventure in a tongue and cheek way. The result is a fast paced experience that doesn’t always transcend the cliches of the kind of pics it admires, but has some fun moments along the way.

The concept is of the highest order. The President of the United States Bill Moore (Samuel L. Jackson) is aboard Air Force One flying over Finland (though it was filmed in Germany) when it’s shot down by terrorists. The POTUS gets out through an escape pod, landing in the wilderness. Lucky for him, young Oskari (Onni Tommila) is on a hunting trip in the barren land. He’s about to turn 13 and it’s tradition in his family to show their manhood by bagging a bear or deer… or in this case, corrupt Secret Service agents and Middle Eastern looking baddies. The two team up to outrun their hunters, led by Ray Stevenson’s head agent gone rogue (think James Woods in White House Down). We also see the confusion happening in Washington D.C. as the VP (Victor Garber), an expert CIA man (Jim Broadbent, having a good time), and others including Felicity Huffman and Ted Levine try to save their leader.

Somewhat surprisingly, Helander’s screenplay doesn’t turn President Moore into a secret ass kicker like this material frequently does (think ID4’s Bill Pullman or Air Force One’s Harrison Ford). He’s a bit of a weakling (his approval rating is apparently upside down as well) and young Oskari is also trying to live up to his father’s legendary huntsman status. Moore’s survival skills are questionable as is his teenage companion’s bow and arrow abilities. In a role where one might think Jackson would overact, he gives an often tender performance, when he’s not trying to work a machine gun.

Action sequences are certainly not of the huge budget order, but they’re passable enough. The villains are pretty dull and non descript. For a quick fix of playful and knowingly ridiculous entertainment, Big Game isn’t bad even if its concept can’t completely sustain itself through the Finnish line. What I came away thinking the most is that director Helander could be a natural choice to helm a throwback genre that’s been rebooted or is currently producing sequels. With his clear admiration of the time period, he might do something worthwhile with Jurassic dinos or Goonies.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Brooklyn

When John Crowley’s period piece immigration drama Brooklyn premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year, it quickly vaulted itself into the world of Oscar buzz. This holds especially true for its star Saoirse Ronan, who plays a 1950s Irish woman who travels to that titled burrow and finds romance with an Italian (Emory Cohen, whose performance is also receiving kudos). Domnhall Gleeson and Jim Broadbent are among the costars but it’s the other female cast member, Julie Walters, who’s also meriting Academy nod talk in the Supporting Actress race.

If Ronan were to find herself in the Actress mix, it would be her first recognition in that category, though she did pick up a Supporting Actress nomination for 2007’s Atonement. The pic appears to be somewhat similar in plot to Jim Sheridan’s 2003 acclaimed In America, which received nods for Screenplay, Actress (Samantha Morton) and Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou).

Early reviews are glowing (it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and Brooklyn appears likely at this juncture to be a player in the Best Picture derby with Ronan seeming like a lock. The film premieres stateside on November 6.

Paddington Box Office Prediction

It’s already achieved financial success in the United Kingdom and on Friday, StudioCanal Pictures is hoping Paddington posts solid numbers stateside as well. Based on the well known children’s stories by Michael Bond, this bear tale features Ben Whishaw (Q from the Bond flicks) as the voice of the title character. The cast includes several recognizable faces including Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent and Nicole Kidman.

Reviews have been quite strong as it holds a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Paddington could further benefit from a lack of family fare as Night at the Museum and Annie have now made the bulk of their money. I’ll predict this bear manages an opening somewhere between $20 and $25 million for a respectable beginning.

Paddington opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million