Nearly two years after premiering at the Fort Lauderdale Film Festival, The Senior is finally graduating to an actual release on September 19th. Distributed by Angel Studios, it tells the true life story of a 59-year-old (Michael Chiklis) given the chance to play college football. Rod Lurie directs with Mary Stuart Masterson, Brandon Flynn, James Badge Dale and Rob Corddry costarring.
The Senior will not be the biggest grossing gridiron themed debut next weekend due to horror pic Him. It does have a fair shot at outgrossing the weekend’s other new release A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, which sports a higher profile.
Like other Angel titles, a lower to mid single digits start is the likely scenario.
The Senior opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million
It’s usually not a confident signal when the distributor releases a trailer for a film one week before its release. Yet that is the case with 20th Century Studios and The Empty Man, a horror pic out this Friday. Based on a 2014 graphic novel, David Prior directs with a cast including James Badge Dale, Marin Ireland, Stephen Root, Ron Canada, and Joel Courtney.
Originally slated for August before its COVID related delay, there was even some jesting whether this feature actually existed before real footage emerged a couple of days back. Whether audiences know of its existence is a good question. As new titles have trickled out in October, we’ve seen The War with Grandpa and Honest Thief start off in the $3-4 million range.
Empty could benefit from the lack of product out there, especially in its genre. However, the low key approach in its marketing (to be kind) makes me think it won’t hit those marks.
The Empty Man opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish go out of their comedic comfort zones next weekend with the release of TheKitchen. The crime thriller casts the two performers alongside Elisabeth Moss as the wives of incarcerated gangsters who take over Mob operations in New York. The late 70s set pic marks the directorial debut of Andrea Berloff and is based on a comic book miniseries. Costars include Domhnall Gleeson, James Badge Dale, Brian d’Arcy James, Margo Martindale, Common, and Bill Camp.
If McCarthy and Haddish were headlining a high profile slapstick comedy, my estimate for TheKitchen would likely be considerably more (easily double). However, I’m skeptical that a wide audience is eager to see them in this. If solid reviews pop up in the coming days, that could potentially change the dynamic a bit. I think it’s going to have difficulty reaching double digits.
TheKitchen opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million
For my DoraandtheLostCityofGold prediction, click here:
OnlytheBrave opens next weekend and it stands the best shot at being the second highest grosser of the five newbies hitting screens after Boo2! AMadeaHalloween. Joseph Kosinski, director of Tron: Legacy and Oblivion, is behind the lens for this true-life action/drama focused on a crew taking on devastating wildfires. Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges, James Badge Dale, Taylor Kitsch, Jennifer Connelly, and Andie MacDowell are among the cast.
There will some competition for adults and action fans with premieres like TheSnowman and Geostorm. However, Brave could have a minor leg up with its solid reviews and the unfortunate timeliness of its storyline.
I’ll say a debut at $10 million is probable.
OnlytheBrave opening weekend prediction: $10 million
For my Boo2! AMadeaHalloween prediction, click here:
Transformers director Michael Bay takes a robotic break next weekend with 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, which recounts the true story of the security team attempting to defend the diplomatic compound during Benghazi’s terrorist attack on September 11, 2012. The cast includes James Badge Dale and John Krasinski.
The film has generated plenty of publicity due its timely subject matter and that could lead to a stealthy gross out of the gate. Competition for male attention is strong, with Ride Along 2 premiering and the second weekend of The Revenant in its path.
That said, January has proven to be quite fruitful for military themed fare. Last year, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper grossed an astonishing $89 million in its wide release opening weekend. In 2013, Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg earned nearly $38 million for its debut. In 2012, the February release of Act of Valor took in $24.4 million for its start.
I believe Benghazi‘s gross might fall somewhere between Survivor and Valor numbers (anything approaching Sniper‘s grosses seems out of reach). My prediction reflects a belief that 13 Hours could reach right near the $30M mark for a very solid opening.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi opening weekend prediction: $29.3 million
Recounting the true story of Philippe Petit’s tight rope walk across the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in the mid 1970s, Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk hits theaters next Friday after its limited IMAX debut. Starring Joseph Gordon Levitt, Ben Kingsley and James Badge Dale, the pic looks to capitalize on its mostly positive reviews (85% on Rotten Tomatoes currently) for stellar returns.
I’m of the opinion this will just do OK numbers. First, we’ve just recently seen a similar IMAX to wide roll out with Everest and it brought in less than expected numbers when it hit over 2000 screens at $13.2 million. I don’t believe The Walk will outdo what Everest accomplished. There’s also plenty of competition in the form of adult titles like The Martian and Sicario, both of which will be entering their second weekends.
Add all that up and I’m thinking low double digits out of the gate.
The Walk opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million
Opening today in limited IMAX release is Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which recounts the true life tale of French high wire artist Philippe Petit’s adventures walking across the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center over 40 years ago. The pic had its premiere last week at the New York Film Festival and it certainly has its admirers (to the tune of a solid 84% on Rotten Tomatoes). Could it be a factor in the Oscar race?
The answer: doubtful. While reviews have been mostly positive, they haven’t been over the moon and many critics have said the film is only really worth it for a thrilling last forty minutes or so. As the lead, Joseph Gordon Levitt has gotten fine notices but appears to be a long shot in the Best Actor race. It’s worth noting that Gordon Levitt was once seen as a potential double threat for a nod in 2015 until his title performance in Oliver Stone’s Snowden was pushed to 2016. Supporting players Ben Kingsley and James Badge Dale appear unlikely to be factors.
Even with reviewers praising the directorial effort of Zemeckis (who won in 1994 for Forrest Gump), his nomination seems improbable. If the movie itself becomes a runaway hit, it could sneak into Best Picture but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Two areas where The Walk could garner notice is in Visual Effects and Cinematography, yet those races are bound to be crowded as well.
Bottom line: at this time, I wouldn’t list The Walk as much of a threat for Academy attention, but it could always be subject to change.
Last summer’s World War Z was met with Waterworld type expectations upon its release. The vast majority of its publicity was negative. Stories of a troubled production, cost overruns, and script problems were abundant. What happened? It turned into a massive worldwide hit with a sequel on the way. It’s also star Brad Pitt’s highest grossing film ever.
For a picture that was looked at as a potential disaster which was apparently plagued with issues during the shooting, you’d never know it while viewing it. Loosely based on Max Brooks’s (son of Mel) bestseller, World War Z excels in taking your typical zombie movie clichés but expanding them on a big-budget, global scale. Pitt is Gerry Lane, a former UN investigator turned stay at home father. When a mysterious pandemic breaks out with people being infected with zombie-like symptoms, Gerry is recruited to go on a mission to find the outbreak’s origin and a potential cure. He does so reluctantly only after being told his family’s safety is not guaranteed if he doesn’t. Gerry’s new life of Dad and chief pancake maker is history.
The movie doesn’t take long at all to get revved up with a giant action spectacle scene set in Philadelphia. Gerry’s journey takes him to South Korea, Jerusalem, and Wales within a short period of time – probably around the number of continents that Brad Pitt and family visit in one week’s time. Along the way, he finds a female Israeli guard to help him and comes across a corrupt CIA agent (creepily portrayed by David Morse) who has his own ideas on how to stop the virus.
The first two-thirds of World War Z are shot on an epic scale with big action scenes directed quite well by Marc Forster. This is a bit of a surprise considering his handling of action in the Bond pic Quantum of Solace was mediocre. The final acts opt for more claustrophobic locations and this is a wise decision by the filmmakers. If the pic had kept moving along at its large scale, it might’ve become routine. Instead the audience is treated to a truly suspenseful airplane scene and the finale at the Welsh WHO research facility where Gerry’s surprisingly plausible explanation for how to stop the virus is tested. Rather than explosions and widespread mayhem with hundreds of zombie extras chasing our hero down, it is one zombie and his chattering teeth that memorably keep us on the edge of our seats.
Of course, there are clichés we expect to see in zombie flicks and most are present here. It even features the latest zombie cliché craze where the zombies are FAST, like in 28 Days Later and the Dawn of the Dead remake. It makes for better action scenes and World War Z has plenty of them. Then there’s Gerry’s daughter who has asthma – because in films like this, there must be an asthmatic child. That said, signs of a difficult production don’t make it to the screen. World War Z is a tremendous amount of fun and ranks high on the scale of Z features.
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