A recurring theme in the X-Men universe has been to celebrate being different. This normally applies to the mutants being discriminated against. That’s certainly present in James Mangold’s Logan. However, unlike previous franchise entries, this one strives to be celebrated for its own efforts to be different. It’s a hard R rated venture where Hugh Jackman’s title character has developed a drinking problem and considerably more F bombs in his vocabulary (it’s the first word he utters). His claws shed the kind of blood you won’t witness in a typical PG-13 comic book adaptation.
This is a somber affair with a tone that is legitimately jarring at first. Deadpool may have been the first hugely mainstream R flick of the genre, but that’s all they have in common. Logan is different for sure, but I found that to be cause for celebration only some of the time.
There is little for Logan to be happy about as we open. It’s 2029 and the world’s mutant population is aging. No mutant has been born in a quarter century. The former Wolverine spends his days driving a limo in Texas for fat cats and bachelor parties. He drinks a lot and does his best to hide those infamous claws.
He also serves as caretaker for a frail Professor Xavier (Patrick Stewart), whose brainiac abilities have been threatened by brain disease. Logan is assisted by albino mutant Caliban (Stephen Merchant in a fine performance). Our title hero’s past glories are sought again when he comes into contact with a mutant who isn’t supposed to be exist.
Laura (Dafne Keen) is a young girl with mutations similar to Logan’s. It turns out the military is raising youthful mutants for their own destructive purposes in Mexico. She escapes and Logan is asked to take her to a North Dakota location where others of her kind have set up a safe haven coined Eden. Logan isn’t eager to do so, but soon enough he, the girl, and Professor X are on a savage road trip. Standing in their way is Donald Pierce (Boyd Holbrook), head of a military organization termed the Reavers and Zander Rice (Richard E. Grant), the scientist who’s experimented on the new mutants. In a series that has seen villains both memorable and not, this pair resides more in the latter category.
Logan isn’t really about its bad guys though. It’s more focused on the demons that Logan is battling. Oh… and he’s actually literally battling himself too in the form of a nifty genetically engineered version of himself created by those villains. The toned down story (albeit with plenty of hardcore violence) allows Jackman to go places he’s never entered into before with his signature character. Same goes for Stewart’s Professor X. The movie’s points on being a caretaker may resonate with many viewers not accustomed to seeing it in a comic book adaptation. Both actors give impressive performances, as does young Keen in her often silent work.
Ironically, it’s when we realize that the new mutants have been so inspired by the X-Men tales that came before it that Logan generates its greatest power. In other words, that would be the kind of stories we saw in the previous movies that this strives to be so dissimilar from. The final act is most potent and I felt at times it takes a little longer than it should to get there. When it finally does, Logan provides a fulfilling conclusion to Jackman’s work as Logan/Wolverine as the claws draw to a close.
20th Century Fox waited until the last minute to lift their review embargo off The Greatest Showman, which is out in theaters today. That’s usually not a great sign and that’s been mostly proven. The musical drama featuring Hugh Jackman as circus leader P.T. Barnum is garnering mixed notices and it stands at only 43% on Rotten Tomatoes.
For the last several months, Showman hasn’t been considered much of a factor in the Oscar mix. The reaction out this morning solidifies that notion. Even though it was nominated for Golden Globes in Best Musical/Comedy and Actor for Jackman, I expect neither to be possible when it comes to the Academy. The same, by the way, can be said for Jackman’s more acclaimed work in Logan.
Reviews have noted that Showman is more successful as an exercise in style than substance. For that, it could factor into some technical categories. Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound Mixing are all feasible nominations, but there’s a good chance that never materializes with any of them. The Globes did nominate “This is Me” for Song and Oscar could follow suit there.
Bottom line: The Greatest Showman will not play in the major categories, but down the line technical recognition is still on the table.
Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.
Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:
Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. The Post (PR: 4)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder (PR: 5)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Boss Baby
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. The Square (PR: 3)
3. Loveless (PR: 5)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
5. In the Fade (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Insult (PR: 8)
7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
First, They Killed My Father
Thelma
The Divine Order
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 5)
7. One of Us (PR: 7)
8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)
10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Get Out (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonderstruck
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
3. Wonder (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
Logan
The Shape of Water
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
It
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)
That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
The Post
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip
My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!
20th Century Fox is hoping moviegoers will be in tune with their offering The Greatest Showman over the long holiday when it opens next Wednesday. The musical period piece casts Hugh Jackman in the role of circus master P.T. Barnum with a supporting cast that includes Zac Efron, Michelle Williams, Rebecca Ferguson, and Zendaya. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Gracey.
Mr. Jackman has found Christmastime success in this genre before five years with Les Miserables. Expectations aren’t quite as high here, but the reported $84 million production will try to bring in an adult female audience that could be slightly under served. Showman received three Golden Globe nods just yesterday for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy), for Jackman in Best Actor, and for Original Song.
That said, there is some direct competition in the form of Pitch Perfect 3, which arrives two days later and Downsizing, which is also looking to attract an older crowd. I’ll say Showman manages a mid to possibly high teens gross for the four-day weekend that includes Christmas and low to possibly mid 20s for its six-day take.
The Greatest Showman opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million (Friday to Monday), $22.4 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.
The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.
Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.
Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.
In other developments:
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread
Read on!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 11)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
11. Mudbound (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Disaster Artist
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Victoria and Abdul
First, They Killed My Father
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 5)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ferdinand
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
In this Corner of the World
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)
2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
3. The Square (PR: 7)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. Loveless (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. In the Fade (PR: 4)
8. The Insult (PR: 5)
9. Thelma (PR: 9)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)
5. Strong Island (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)
7. One of Us (PR: 9)
8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cries from Syria
Icarus
Risk
Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 7)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Wonder (PR: 9)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. It (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. Detroit (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)
8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
9. Detroit (PR: 5)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
“The Promise” from The Promise
And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Post
6 Nominations
Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island
The three major players involved have a combined 32 Oscar nominations and 7 wins. It’s a historical drama with relevance to current events. And it’s got a plum December release date for Academy voters.
Since the announcement of the project, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has rightly been pegged as an Oscar hopeful. Today its review embargo lifted so let’s discuss its chances, shall we? The pic tells the story of journalists exposing government secrets during the Vietnam War and casts Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kate Graham and Tom Hanks as the paper’s editor Ben Bradlee.
Just last week, The Post won the National Board of Review’s Best Picture prize, along with Streep and Hanks in the lead acting categories. That’s a good sign of things to come for its Oscar chances. That said, critical reaction today is not completely over the moon. While some reviews have been quite strong, its Rotten Tomatoes score currently stands at 73% – decent, but far from the standings of other likely competitors.
Yet its inclusion in Best Picture looks almost assured. Spielberg also could well nab his 8th nomination as Best Director (he’s won twice). Streep looks safe to get her 21st (!) nod in Actress (she’s been victorious thrice). Hanks has a nice shot to get his 6th recognition (having won twice), though it’s a bit less safe. At press time, Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) appear to be locks in Actor. Hanks, Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), and Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) appear to be vying for the other three slots and someone has to be left out (we also wait for reaction to Hugh Jackman’s work in The Greatest Showman).
The Post could also contend in Original Screenplay, but that’s a packed category as well and its inclusion isn’t guaranteed. Other races where it could play: Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, and Original Score.
Bottom line: A Best Picture and Streep nomination are looking good, while some of the others are a bit more questionable. However, due its subject matter, I’m thinking The Post walks away with at least a handful of nominations.
I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today.
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.
If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.
Some other developments:
Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).
Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. LadyBird (PR: 7)
5. CallMebyYourName (PR: 6)
6. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
7. ThePost (PR: 8)
8. Mudbound (PR: 5)
9. PhantomThread (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. TheFloridaProject (PR: 7)
11. GetOut (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
13. Detroit (PR: 14)
14. BattleoftheSexes (PR: 15)
15. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 13)
BestDirector
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, LadyBird (PR: 6)
5. Steven Spielberg, ThePost (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, CallMebyYourName (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Lesley Manville, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 10)
8. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
9. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Breathe
BestAdaptedScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. CallMebyYourName (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’sGame (PR: 3)
4. TheDisasterArtist (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. LastFlagFlying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 10)
8. VictoriaandAbdul (PR: 7)
9. First, TheyKilledMyFather (PR: Not Ranked)
10. TheBeguiled (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stronger
BestOriginalScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. LadyBird (PR: 3)
3. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
4. GetOut (PR: 4)
5. ThePost (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
7. TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. TheFloridaProject (PR: 6)
9. DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. PhantomThread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Girl Without Hands
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. Loveless (PR: 7)
8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Happy End (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Tom of Finland
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 2)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
3. Icarus (PR: 3)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Risk (PR: 7)
8. Strong Island (PR: 5)
9. Faces Places (PR: 10)
10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kedi
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Get Out
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. The Post (PR: 7)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
10. It (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Coco
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
8. Detroit (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Jump” from Step
And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver
1 Nomination
Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall
I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!
Greetings all as my Oscar predictions return! My Thursday predictions will now become my Monday predictions as I missed last Thursday due to vacation. The biggest development of the last 11 days was that Steven Spielberg’s The Post screened last night. While it’s under strict embargo still from reviews, word leaking out currently is pretty encouraging and it’s bolstered both the picture and Meryl Streep’s chances for Oscar recognition (and possibly its director and Tom Hanks as well). It’s enough that I’ve got it going from 1 predicted nod a couple weeks ago to 4 today. A word of caution: with the embargo in place, I would describe my current Post placements as fluid.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll be back next Monday with fresh predictions!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 6)
6. CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. LadyBird (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. TheFloridaProject (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. GetOut (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
12. PhantomThread (PR: 13)
13. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
LastFlagFlying
BestDirector
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
2. Sam Rockwell, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. Michael Shannon, TheShapeofWater (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. Richard Jenkins, TheShapeofWater (PR: 8)
8. Woody Harrelson, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
10. Steve Carell, BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Mendelsohn, DarkestHour
Will Poulter, Detroit
BestSupportingActress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, LadyBird (PR: 2)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
7. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bria Vinaite, TheFloridaProject
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 6)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 5)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
9. Stronger (PR: 9)
10. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Get Out (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 7)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 9)
9. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. The Square (PR: 5)
5. Foxtrot (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
7. Loveless (PR: 3)
8. Happy End (PR: 7)
9. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
10. Tom of Finland (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
2. Jane (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: 4)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Strong Island (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kedi (PR: 8)
7. Risk (PR: 5)
8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
10. Faces Places (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
Step
One of Us
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
7. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Get Out (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Mudbound
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Call Me by Your Name
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Mudbound (PR: 9)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
mother!
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Post (PR: 9)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)
7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
8. It (PR: 9)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 10)
9. Coco (PR: 7)
10. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
4. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)
5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
7. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)
10. “Jump” from Step (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves us with the following breakdown of nominations:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
Dunkirk, Darkest Hour
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, Lady Bird, The Post, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman,
1 Nomination
Stronger, Breathe, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Foxtrot, Jane, Icarus, Strong Island, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, Fifty Shades Darker.
We’ll see you next Monday with updated projections!
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly updated Oscar predictions are in!
Some developments from the past seven days:
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is down to just one nomination in my predictions. It’s the big one (Best Picture), but it’s clinging for dear life to the 9th spot with pics like I, Tonya and Get Out getting closer to getting in. Obviously, no one has seen it yet so this is based solely on buzz alone. We did get our first trailer for it this week at long last.
Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird makes a major leap this week into both Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). That means Blade Runner 2049 has fallen out of my predicted nine in Picture with Meryl Streep out in Actress for The Post (she held the #1 spot for weeks).
For the first time, Martin McDonagh’s directorial work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is in. That means Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name) is currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve finally taken Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman out of the top 5, replaced with Andrew Garfield in Breathe.
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) replaces Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water in Supporting Actor. If that happens, Call Me would be the first Supporting Actor race to feature two actors (Stuhlbarg, Armie Hammer) from the same picture since Bugsy in 1991 (Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley).
Mary J. Blige enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress, replacing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
That means all 8 major categories have seen changes. Lastly, there’s the unprecedented news that broke last night involving Christopher Plummer reshooting all of Kevin Spacey’s scenes in Ridley Scott’s AlltheMoneyintheWorld. Shockingly, the studio is still looking to make its December 22 release date. If that happens, Plummer might be one to look out for in Supporting Actor.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Mudbound (PR: 4)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
11. Get Out (PR: 15)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)
9. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)
5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 10)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 7)
10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 3)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
9. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
5. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Get Out (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dunkirk
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Loveless (PR: 8)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
7. Happy End (PR: 4)
8. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 7)
9. Tom of Finland (PR: 10)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)
7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cries from Syria (PR: 4)
2. Jane (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 1)
5. Icarus (PR: 3)
5. Risk (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Step (PR: 6)
8. Kedi (PR: 10)
9. Long Strange Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
10. One of Us (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
Dina
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
7. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Mudbound (PR: 7)
10. mother! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
9. It (PR: 9)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 2)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
10. Thor: Rangarok (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 9)
7. Coco (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 4)
9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
9. Coco (PR: 10)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
10. Coco (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)
9. “If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
That leaves the following breakdown of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
9 Nominations
Darkest Hour
7 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name
4 Nominations
Mudbound, Lady Bird
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
The Post, Stronger, Breathe, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Last Flag Flying, Get Out, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Loveless, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales, Ferdinand, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Risk, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker.
Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.
There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.
Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.
Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 3)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)
14. Detroit (PR: 12)
15. Get Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
The Big Sick
All the Money in the World
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
Wind River
Coco
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)
9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Algee Smith, Detroit
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Diane Kruger, In the Fade
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World
Will Poulter, Detroit
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Sarah Paulson, The Post
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Thank You for Your Service
First, They Killed My Father
The Death of Stalin
Wonder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Get Out (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: 6)
9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Downsizing
Wind River
Battle of the Sexes
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
2. In the Fade
3. First, They Killed My Father
4. Happy End
5. Foxtrot
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square
7. A Fantastic Woman
8. Loveless
9. The Divine Order
10. Tom of Finland
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children
5. Ferdinand
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Despicable Me 3
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. City of Ghosts
2. Risk
3. Icarus
4. Cries from Syria
5. Jane
Other Possibilities:
6. Step
7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
8. Dina
9. One of Us
10. Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Post
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. Mudbound
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Wonder Wheel
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Wonder Wheel
10. Call My by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Victoria and Abdul
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Beguiled
8. Wonder Wheel
9. The Post
10. Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman
5. I, Tonya
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. It
10. Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. Wonder Woman
9. Thor: Ragnarok
10. Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Wonder Woman
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water
7. Coco
8. Detroit
9. Baby Driver
10. War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver
7. Detroit
8. Transformers: The Last Knight
9. Darkest Hour
10. Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonderstruck
5. Coco
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. The Post
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
8. “The Promise” from The Promise
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
11 Nominations
Darkest Hour
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread
4 Nominations
Mudbound, The Greatest Showman
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast
1 Nomination
Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 