This Friday, yet another remake/reboot of a classic horror entry comes to us as Poltergeist is released. 20th Century Fox is hopeful that the brand name will bring moviegoers in over the long Memorial Day weekend. It’s been 33 years since the Tobe Hooper directed and Steven Spielberg produced original and this reboot stars Sam Rockwell, Rosemarie Dewitt, and Jared Harris.
The high profile May release is a bit surprising and one wonders if this might have been better geared toward an October rollout. Truthfully, this seems to be flying a bit under the radar and is likely to settle for a second place debut at best behind Tomorrowland and maybe behind holdovers Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Certainly this could over perform, but that possibility is not reflected in my estimate.
Poltergeist opening weekend prediction: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $29.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
Jennifer Kent’s The Babadook deals with the heaviness of a widowed mother raising her young son and throws in a horror flick to boot. This low budget Australian import announces a new director in Kent who holds tremendous premise. She knows her way about the genre and how to provide some spine tingling moments with her direction and in the screenplay.
Amelia (Essie Davis) has one 6 year old son Samuel (Noah Wiseman). On the date of his birth, her father was killed driving her to the hospital. To her relatives, neighbors and coworkers, she tries to pretend like everything’s fine. In reality, she can’t even speak her late husband’s name or have anything resembling a conversation about him. That’s not her only family issue. Samuel is a very troubled child whose disruptive behavior gets him kicked out of school. Quite literally, Samuel won’t let his mom have even a moment’s pleasure. He builds weapons to fight imaginary monsters. Yet as we all know in these types of films, maybe these darn kids know a little more about what’s really going on than the adults.
This is when Amelia comes across a graphic and ominous kids book called Mister Babadook, featuring a character who wishes to inflict harm on them. The concept is familiar – once you read about Babadook, you can’t get rid of him. From that moment on, The Babadook follows the playbook of the scores of demonic possession pics before it.
While there’s really nothing truly new going on here, there’s enough positives in Kent’s debut to satisfy horror enthusiasts. For starters, Davis gives a remarkable performance that must consistently shift between concerned and sleep deprived mother and, well, something else. Wiseman certainly acquits himself well and is highly believable as a freaked out youngster. The Babadook is as much about Amelia’s strange journey to confront her undealt with sorrow over her loss than anything else. It just takes a sinister children’s book psycho to deal with it.
After it premiered in May 2014 at the Cannes Film Festival, the low budget indie horror flick It Follows received rave reviews, so much so that it stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a cast of unknowns and a director helming his first theatrical feature, Follows debuts in approximately 1200 theaters this Friday.
Its critical acclaim gives it the only real shot of breaking out at the box office. While reviews have deemed it terrifying, it is still tough to imagine that happening. The marketing campaign has been subdued and a better bet is the picture finding a cult following once it reaches VOD and cable.
I’ll predict a soft opening that will keep it outside the top five.
It Follows opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
Annabelle was rushed into production after summer 2013’s The Conjuring turned out to be a huge hit and one of the better genre flicks in recent memory. The title character is a wide-eyed, creepy doll who turned up memorably in a supporting role in the aforementioned production. Here she gets her own feature and it feels exactly like a rushed project meant to tide fans over until the legitimate Conjuring sequel. Annabelle was shot on a smaller budget and looks cheaper.
The picture deems it necessary to open with a title card explaining the history of dolls and then footage of The Conjuring to remind us why we just spent our dough. We flash back to 1969 (one year prior to Conjuring’s haunted happenings) where dull Dr. John (Ward Horton) and pregnant wifey Mia (Annabelle – woah – Wallis) gain the attention of our demonic doll after some cult figures (think Manson) invade their home. Moving doesn’t help. Annabelle has no issues making the journey to Pasadena with our non-descript couple. Alfre Woodard turns up as a bookstore owner who helps Mia understand what’s happening with Tony Amendola in the well worn role as a priest trying to assist.
Annabelle tries to generate its scares though sound effects and lingering shots of our doll staring. We keep waiting for those huge eyes to move. It all worked much better in The Conjuring and especially in Rosemary’s Baby, which director John Leonetti pays occasional tribute to. Most distressingly, the tone is far too somber. It’s about a crazy and vengeful kids doll after all. Chucky might’ve helped. There are a couple of mildly hair rising moments, but not near enough. This was designed to provide leftovers to hungry Conjuring fans but it’s unlikely to satisfy.
Nearly three years ago, British horror pic The Woman in Black starring Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe, performed admirably at the U.S. box office with a $54 million gross (and a much better than expected $20M opening weekend).
And now the sequel arriving January 2 that marks the first major wide release of 2015. Radcliffe does not make a return trip and the cast features no well-known actors. Angel of Death will need to capitalize on audience affection for the original. The problem: there likely isn’t much of it. While the original made more than anticipated, it’s hardly considered a genre classic (though it is worth a look). This could follow a similar pattern to the first picture of 2014: Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which debuted to a less than estimated $18 million. Black, unfortunately, doesn’t even have the following of that franchise.
I believe this should open over double digits, but not by a whole lot.
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death opening weekend prediction: $11.1 million
It’s been ten years since Saw became a major cult hit that spawned six sequels and kick started the directorial career of James Wan. He would move onto The Conjuring and will soon helm the seventh Fast and Furious picture. Lionsgate is celebrating this milestone by re-releasing the original Saw in theaters for Halloween and hoping audiences make a return trip to the theater to watch Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, and Tobin Bell as Jigsaw.
There’s no doubt that the Halloween timing could help, but I’m rather skeptical crowds will turn out for a film they can easily cue up on cable or on their DVD/Blu Ray player. There is also horror competition with Ouija in its second weekend, even though that title is likely to suffer a large drop.
Rolling out on approximately 1850 screens, I’ll predict Saw fails to gross over $5M in its re-release and that many genre fans will stay at home.
Saw 10th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
A dysfunctional upper class family consisting of mom and dad, their four adult children, and their children’s significant others get together for the first time in quite a while in You’re Next. As if that weren’t terrifying enough, what follows is them being trapped in the well-worn clichés of a home invasion horror flick. The central premise of Adam Wingard’s picture is that the gory bloodshed is only slightly scarier than the character’s personality flaws and sibling rivalries.
Caught in the middle of all the family drama is Erin (Sharni Vinson), who’s accompanying her boyfriend (A.J. Bowen) to his parents (Rob Moran and Barbara Crampton) vacation home for the weekend. It turns out Erin will be our film’s strong heroine presence and that she knows a lot more about how to deal with the unwelcome guests than anyone on else on site. Those invaders come in the form of murderers with cool looking animal masks who’ve thought out their crime well (piano wire is put to good use).
You’re Next follows in the tradition of Scream and The Cabin in the Woods in that it satirizes the genre while celebrating its conventions. Director Wingard and screenwriter Simon Barrett have a lot of fun playing with those conventions. It may not reach the ironic heights of the aforementioned pictures, but it often comes darn close. The central twists aren’t particularly surprising and there are times when Next becomes a little repetitive.
Yet it’s bloody heart is in the right place. The 80s sounding soundtrack is a trip. The pic surprisingly works more as a gore infested comedy than traditional horror flick. You’re Next‘s family argument starts at the dinner table and doesn’t stop just because a group of bow and arrow shooting, knife wielding terrorizers decide the crash the occasion. For enthusiasts of the genre, there’s a lot to admire here and there’s fun to be had.
It’s been a shaky year, to say the least, for horror flicks and this Labor Day weekend – the found footage pic As Above, So Below will attempt to reverse that trend. The film showcases American tourists exploring the catacombs in Paris with haunting results. There have yet to be many reviews, but the ones available don’t inspire much confidence.
As Above, So Below appears unlikely to inject some much needed energy to horror genre. Still, it should manage a double digit debut – especially over the four-day holiday weekend. I don’t believe, however, that Below will end up opening above what the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles manage to gross next weekend.
As Above, So Below opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The found footage horror flick Devil’s Due delivers itself unto theaters this Friday. When looking at horror titles released in January, there’s plenty of them to look at for comparisons sake.
Two years ago, The Devil Inside (a similarly themed movie) hauled in an incredible $33.7 million in its debut. There’s also genre pics that opened over the same MLK holiday weekend: in 2009, My Blood Valentine 3D opened to $24.1 million over the four-day and just last year, Mama premiered to a terrific $32.1 million over that time frame. Another similar title, 2009’s The Unborn, debuted to $20.8 million in January.
Then there’s the flipside. Just last weekend, found footage sequel Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones debuted to a less than expected $18.3 million. Audiences may be tiring of being fed the same movie over and over again and Devil’s Due looks like it might fall under that category. Horror films are notoriously difficult to predict. Devil’s Due has the potential to reach the heights of The Devil Inside or Mama, but I don’t believe it will. The film could also tank and struggle to reach double digits. I think it will perform similar to yet another January horror flick from 2011 – The Rite, which made $14.7 million for its opening. I am predicting a mid teens debut for the three-day and higher teens for the four-day.
Devil’s Due opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:
Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.
And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:
1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)
This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.
And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!
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