Nearly three years ago, British horror pic The Woman in Black starring Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe, performed admirably at the U.S. box office with a $54 million gross (and a much better than expected $20M opening weekend).
And now the sequel arriving January 2 that marks the first major wide release of 2015. Radcliffe does not make a return trip and the cast features no well-known actors. Angel of Death will need to capitalize on audience affection for the original. The problem: there likely isn’t much of it. While the original made more than anticipated, it’s hardly considered a genre classic (though it is worth a look). This could follow a similar pattern to the first picture of 2014: Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which debuted to a less than estimated $18 million. Black, unfortunately, doesn’t even have the following of that franchise.
I believe this should open over double digits, but not by a whole lot.
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death opening weekend prediction: $11.1 million
It’s been ten years since Saw became a major cult hit that spawned six sequels and kick started the directorial career of James Wan. He would move onto The Conjuring and will soon helm the seventh Fast and Furious picture. Lionsgate is celebrating this milestone by re-releasing the original Saw in theaters for Halloween and hoping audiences make a return trip to the theater to watch Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, and Tobin Bell as Jigsaw.
There’s no doubt that the Halloween timing could help, but I’m rather skeptical crowds will turn out for a film they can easily cue up on cable or on their DVD/Blu Ray player. There is also horror competition with Ouija in its second weekend, even though that title is likely to suffer a large drop.
Rolling out on approximately 1850 screens, I’ll predict Saw fails to gross over $5M in its re-release and that many genre fans will stay at home.
Saw 10th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
A dysfunctional upper class family consisting of mom and dad, their four adult children, and their children’s significant others get together for the first time in quite a while in You’re Next. As if that weren’t terrifying enough, what follows is them being trapped in the well-worn clichés of a home invasion horror flick. The central premise of Adam Wingard’s picture is that the gory bloodshed is only slightly scarier than the character’s personality flaws and sibling rivalries.
Caught in the middle of all the family drama is Erin (Sharni Vinson), who’s accompanying her boyfriend (A.J. Bowen) to his parents (Rob Moran and Barbara Crampton) vacation home for the weekend. It turns out Erin will be our film’s strong heroine presence and that she knows a lot more about how to deal with the unwelcome guests than anyone on else on site. Those invaders come in the form of murderers with cool looking animal masks who’ve thought out their crime well (piano wire is put to good use).
You’re Next follows in the tradition of Scream and The Cabin in the Woods in that it satirizes the genre while celebrating its conventions. Director Wingard and screenwriter Simon Barrett have a lot of fun playing with those conventions. It may not reach the ironic heights of the aforementioned pictures, but it often comes darn close. The central twists aren’t particularly surprising and there are times when Next becomes a little repetitive.
Yet it’s bloody heart is in the right place. The 80s sounding soundtrack is a trip. The pic surprisingly works more as a gore infested comedy than traditional horror flick. You’re Next‘s family argument starts at the dinner table and doesn’t stop just because a group of bow and arrow shooting, knife wielding terrorizers decide the crash the occasion. For enthusiasts of the genre, there’s a lot to admire here and there’s fun to be had.
It’s been a shaky year, to say the least, for horror flicks and this Labor Day weekend – the found footage pic As Above, So Below will attempt to reverse that trend. The film showcases American tourists exploring the catacombs in Paris with haunting results. There have yet to be many reviews, but the ones available don’t inspire much confidence.
As Above, So Below appears unlikely to inject some much needed energy to horror genre. Still, it should manage a double digit debut – especially over the four-day holiday weekend. I don’t believe, however, that Below will end up opening above what the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles manage to gross next weekend.
As Above, So Below opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The found footage horror flick Devil’s Due delivers itself unto theaters this Friday. When looking at horror titles released in January, there’s plenty of them to look at for comparisons sake.
Two years ago, The Devil Inside (a similarly themed movie) hauled in an incredible $33.7 million in its debut. There’s also genre pics that opened over the same MLK holiday weekend: in 2009, My Blood Valentine 3D opened to $24.1 million over the four-day and just last year, Mama premiered to a terrific $32.1 million over that time frame. Another similar title, 2009’s The Unborn, debuted to $20.8 million in January.
Then there’s the flipside. Just last weekend, found footage sequel Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones debuted to a less than expected $18.3 million. Audiences may be tiring of being fed the same movie over and over again and Devil’s Due looks like it might fall under that category. Horror films are notoriously difficult to predict. Devil’s Due has the potential to reach the heights of The Devil Inside or Mama, but I don’t believe it will. The film could also tank and struggle to reach double digits. I think it will perform similar to yet another January horror flick from 2011 – The Rite, which made $14.7 million for its opening. I am predicting a mid teens debut for the three-day and higher teens for the four-day.
Devil’s Due opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday-to-Monday)
For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:
The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:
Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.
And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:
1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)
This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.
And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!
The 2014 box office season kicks off with just one new release, but it’s a high-profile one. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is a spinoff of the popular found footage horror franchise that began in 2009. This is the fifth entry in the series, though it’s being described as a “cousin” and not a direct sequel to what came before (um, OK). To further prove its a spin-off, Paranormal Activity 5 will arrive in theaters on October 24, 2014.
The Marked Ones has a few things going for it: it’s been marketed heavily with the studio especially going after Hispanic audiences in its campaign. It’s a strategy that could certainly pay off. Additionally, there’s been no successful horror pic in nearly three months since Insidious Chapter 2 (the Carrie remake faltered).
However, there’s also the fact that Paranormal Activity 4 was a bit of a disappointment commercially. The second Activity earned $40.6 million in its first weekend and the third hit the high point with $52.5 million out of the gate. #4 took in $29 million in its debut, noticeably less than its predecessors.
There are numerous scenarios I could see with The Marked Ones:
1) It could over perform and open in the range of 2013’s two most successful horror pics – The Conjuring and its $41.9M opening and Insidious Chapter 2 with its $40.3M debut.
2) It could perform right in line with PA4 in the high 20s or low 30s.
3) It could perform right in line with 2013’s Texas Chainsaw 3D, which opened during the same weekend with $21.7 million.
So, of course, I’m not really going with any of those scenarios. I’m predicting The Marked Ones will earn just a bit less than the franchise’s fourth entry, however a higher gross than my prediction seems more feasible than anything lower.
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million
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