Oscar Predictions: Behemoth!

In his first directorial project since 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! has premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its December 4th stateside bow. The Searchlight property from the Michael Clayton filmmaker casts Pedro Pascal as a cello prodigy returning home to his native L.A. The drama costars Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, Will Arnett, and Hank Azaria.

I’ve had Behemoth! in my top 10 projected Best Picture nominees (usually in the 8-9 slot range) for awhile now. Now that it’s been seen, I’m less confident it makes the cut. Some reviews are quite laudatory but the 81% Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic also indicates mixed notices. I expect it will drop from BP when I do my next update.

The pic could still factor into other races. Wilde is getting some nice ink though I’m skeptical a Supporting Actress nom would occur, especially because she’s likely to get an Actress nod for The Invite. Pascal is another story. He could contend for his first Actor mention. Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) seem like safe bets for inclusion in the quintet. That leaves two slots with several vying for attention. Pascal’s notices are solid enough that he belongs in that group along with Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary, who I’m more confident about than others), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York), Jaafar Jackson (Michael) and, yes, Tom Cruise in Digger.

Behemoth!‘s best shot might be in Best Original Score where nine individuals contributed including celebrated composers like James Newton Howard, Michael Giacchino, and Alan Silvestri. Critics especially took notice of that aspect. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Electric State

What does an astronomical $320 million budget get you in Hollywood these days? Apparently a mid-March Netflix release and a heap of critical derision. Meet The Electric State, a comedic sci-fi adventure hitting the streamer March 14th from Anthony and Joe Russo of Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame fame. The human cast for the ultra expensive flick includes Millie Bobby Brown, Chris Pratt, Ke Huy Quan, Stanley Tucci, Woody Norman, Giancarlo Esposito, and Jason Alexander. An equally impressive voice cast includes Woody Harrelson, Anthony Mackie, Brian Cox, Jenny Slate, Alan Tudyk, Hank Azaria, Colman Domingo, and Rob Gronkowski.

It is worth noting that the Russo’s follow-ups to the Avengers juggernauts are the unimpressively reviewed Cherry and The Gray Man. Yet this appears to be receiving the worst of it with 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 30 on Metacritic. The term “wasted potential” pops up more than once. Only the visual effects would be a possibility for awards attention and the Electric buzz might sink that. This has much more viability at the Razzies than with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Smurfs: The Lost Village Box Office Prediction

Columbia Pictures hopes that moviegoers have the blues in a good way next weekend when Smurfs: The Lost Village debuts. This is the third pic in the franchise based on the 1980s cartoon and the studio has made a change-up. While 2011’s The Smurfs and its 2013 sequel were a mix of live-action and animation, The Lost Village cuts the human aspect and is of the fully drawn variety. That means Neil Patrick Harris and Hank Azaria are nowhere to be seen, unlike the first two.

Voice over work is provided by familiar faces that include Demi Lovato, Rainn Wilson, Joe Manganiello, Mandy Patinkin, Michelle Rodgriguez, Jack McBrayer, Ellie Kemper, Danny Pudi, Ariel Winter, and Julia Roberts. Kelly Asbury, who handled directorial duties on Shrek 2, is behind the camera.

The 2011 Smurfs was a hit, opening to $35 million with an eventual $142M domestic haul. Part two did not fare as well, premiering to $17 million and $71M overall.

Competition for family audiences is considerable. Beauty and the Beast will still be bringing in the bucks in weekend #4, Powers Rangers will be in its third frame, and The Boss Baby will be entering its sophomore weekend.

That said, I expect The Lost Village to outdo what the second movie did out of the gate. I anticipate an opening in the high teens to low 20s. That likely means a third place showing behind Baby and Beauty. Whether or not that’s enough to push forward with planned sequel Smurf & Turf (in which the characters become embroiled in a vicious gangland war) remains to be seen.

Smurfs: The Lost Village opening weekend prediction: $20.4 million

For my Going in Style prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/going-in-style-box-office-prediction/

For my The Case for the Christ prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/03/the-case-for-christ-box-office-prediction/