Sometimes my Oscar Predictions write-ups are actually Golden Globe Predictions and that would apply to Freakier Friday. Out Friday, this is the sequel to the 2003’s Freaky Friday which itself was a remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy that was actually based on a 1972 book. Got all that? Nisha Ganatra directs with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back headlining. Costars include Mark Harmon, Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, Manny Jacinto, Chad Michael Murray, and Rosalind Chao.
No, Freakier Friday won’t contend for the Academy’s attention. However, the Friday features have a history with the Globes. In Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, both Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris were nominated for the ’76 version (they lost to Barbra Streisand for A Star Is Born). Bonus fun fact: Harris was a double nominee in that category as she was also up for Alfred Hitchcock’s final film Family Plot. In 2003, Jamie Lee Curtis was a hopeful in the same race for the remake and fell short to Diane Keaton for Something’s Gotta Give.
Early reviews for Freakier are pretty decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. That’s lower than Curtis/Lohan’s tale from 22 years ago. If competition is light, it’s not impossible that Curtis could find herself in the Globes mix again. Her chances are certainly less than they were in the earlier part of the century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.
With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.
Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.
Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million
As the no-nonsense IRS inspector with hot dog hands in an alternate universe, Jamie Lee Curtis’s in Everything Everywhere All at Once is next up for my Supporting Actress Case Of posts.
The Case for Jamie Lee Curtis:
For four and a half decades, Curtis has been a mainstay on the silver screen across all genres from Halloween to Trading Places to A Fish Called Wanda and True Lies to Freaky Friday and Knives Out. Despite that impressive and varied filmography, Everything marks her first nom from the Academy. A victory could double as a career achievement award. That could help explain her surprise win last night at SAG. She also made the cut at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs.
The Case Against Jamie Lee Curtis:
The same career achievement narrative can be applied to Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and she won the Globe and Critics Choice. Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin took the BAFTA. Curtis could also split votes with her costar Stephanie Hsu.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
If I had written this post on Saturday, I wouldn’t have given Curtis much of a chance. The SAG recognition puts her in a three-way race with Bassett and Condon.
My Case of Posts will continue with Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin!
Write-ups for Curtis’s competition can be accessed here:
The joy of witnessing Vince Vaughn in the body of an awkward teenage girl provides intermittent comedic thrills in Christopher Landon’s Freaky. It’s just too bad there aren’t more of them in the latest spotty but certainly watchable low-budget horror flick from the Blumhouse shop. If you have seen the director’s two Happy Death Day pictures, you won’t be surprised he’s behind the camera with this. The first Death reconfigured the Groundhog Day concept to the slasher genre while its sequel veered more toward a sci-fi Back to the Future vibe. Freaky‘s influence is simple and in the title without mentioning the word Friday.
Our body swap involves an urban legend but very real serial killer who goes by the Blissfield Butcher and is played by Vaughn. Millie (Kathryn Newton) is the high schooler mourning the loss of her father while her alcoholic mom coddles her. When the Butcher swipes a mysterious ancient dagger from his previous killing in an attempt to off Millie, it switches their forms. This is just in time for Friday the 13th and they have 24 hours to reverse the effect.
I’ll use this opportunity to praise title cards. I enjoyed how in the lead up to the big day, we see “WEDNESDAY THE 11TH” and “THURSDAY THE 12TH” in bloody scrawl font as if they’re meant to provide a jolt. When Millie does inhabit the Butcher’s 6’5″ frame and has a long pined for romantic moment with her crush, it provides the funniest scene of all (Vaughn’s humorous talents are on full display there).
Yet Freaky is also tonally challenged. Millie’s tragic family dynamics feel slightly forced. The backstory involving that mystical knife called La Dola might be something its makers hope to explain further in a sequel. I’ll credit the screenwriters for finding a couple of Friday the 13th style inventive ways to off lustful adolescents, but the film isn’t exactly scary.
This is more occasionally funny than truly freaky and it ends up being about as entertaining as both Happy Death Day experiences. It succeeds from time to time with its mashup of well known properties, but leaves a bit to be desired.
A slasher version of Freaky Friday comes from the Blumhouse shop with the release of Freaky next weekend. The low budget horror flick features a high school senior (Kathryn Newton) who switches bodies with a serial killer (Vince Vaughn). Christopher Landon (who made Happy Death Day and its sequel) directs and costars include Katie Finneran and Alan Ruck.
Shot for a reported $5 million, its studio has often excelled at turning a tidy profit for its ventures. Early reviews are encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating with particular praise for its two leads. The theatrical window here is unique as it opens on Friday on the 13th and will be available for streaming just three weeks later in early December.
The solid critical reaction and Blumhouse’s marketing talents could push Freaky to make its budget back in the initial weekend. I’ll project that it will.
Well it’s Throwback Thursday and I’m giving you the culmination of my three-part series recounting the movie summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We’ve already gone back to memory lane in 1987 and 1997. If you missed either of those posts, you can find them here:
That means I’m traveling back a decade ago to 2007 and it’s a summer where threequels were majorly in vogue, accounting for four of the top six grossing pictures. Sequels were pervasive in general in this particular season and it was a breakout summer for one Seth Rogen.
As I have with these previous entries, I’ll count down the top ten hits as well as other notable pics and some flops.
Let’s get to it!
10. Rush Hour 3
Domestic Gross: $140 million
The third and final pairing of Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker in this action comedy franchise is our first threequel on the list. It fell a steep $86 million short of what Rush Hour 2 accomplished six seasons earlier.
9. Knocked Up
Domestic Gross: $148 million
The comedic summer breakout continued Judd Apatow’s hit streak after The 40 Yr. Old Virgin from two previous summers and gave Seth Rogen his first big leading role. Katherine Heigl may have inexplicably trash talked it later, but audiences disagreed.
8. The Simpsons Movie
Domestic Gross: $183 million
Arriving nearly two decades after the still going FOX animated series debut, The Simpsons Movie surpassed all expectations with its gargantuan gross. Just last month, producers announced there’s been traction on a planned sequel.
7. Ratatouille
Domestic Gross: $206 million
Our second animated entry comes from the Pixar conglomerate. The critically hailed rat tale actually experienced one of the lowest openings for Pixar, but it still managed to top $200 million and its reputation has only grown.
6. The Bourne Ultimatum
Domestic Gross: $227 million
Matt Damon’s third go-round as the title character is still the highest grossing entry of the franchise and the only to pass $200 million. The star returned to the series just last summer.
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Domestic Gross: $292 million
The fifth installment of the $2 billion plus franchise marks the first one directed by David Yates, who would make the following three pics as well. It stands #5 of the 8 Potter pics in domestic gross.
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Domestic Gross: $309 million
The third Pirates flick is when critics really started to turn on the series. Getting past $300 million is nothing to sneeze at, but it is nearly $115 million lower than its predecessor Dead Man’s Chest just one summer before.
3. Transformers
Domestic Gross: $319 million
Michael Bay’s bot series started a decade ago and it’s still going. The original ranks third of the five in grosses as its two sequels topped it, but the last two have fallen under it.
2. Shrek the Third
Domestic Gross: $322 million
Much like Pirates, this is when reviewers started to sour on this series. It was still chugging along, but it did fall $120 million below Shrek 2.
1. Spider-Man 3
Domestic Gross: $336 million
Anyone noticing a pattern here? Once again – a third franchise entry where critics started sharpening their knives. This end to the Sam Raimi Spidey trilogy was considered a big letdown in quality, yet it still topped the summer while earning less than its two predecessors.
And now for some other notable pictures of summer 2007:
Live Free or Die Hard
Domestic Gross: $134 million
From a pure numbers standpoint, it’s the highest grossing pic to feature Bruce Willis in his signature role of John McClane (though that changes when adjusting for inflation). From a pure entertainment standpoint, the decision to make this the only PG-13 Die Hard film was a bit puzzling.
Superbad
Domestic Gross: $121 million
Mr. Rogen’s big summer kept rolling along with this acclaimed comedy in which he costarred and co-wrote. Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, and McLovin became household names due to this.
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Before his movies moved to Netflix, Adam Sandler could still crank out $100M+ earners just a decade ago, even if it was this stale comedy co-starring Kevin James.
Hairspray
Domestic Gross: $118 million
Based on both the John Waters 1988 pic and the Broadway musical that followed it, Hairspray featuring John Travolta, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Christopher Walken performed above expectations.
Ocean’s Thirteen
Domestic Gross: $117 million
Worth mentioning because it’s yet another threequel that couldn’t quite match the grosses of the first two. An all female version of the Ocean’s franchise is soon coming to a theater near you.
Once
Domestic Gross: $9 million
That may be appear to a small gross, but this little Irish romantic musical came out of nowhere stateside and has achieved a devoted following. It’s even been adapted into a Broadway play.
And now for some of the flops of summer 2007:
Evan Almighty
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Yes, it may have crossed the century mark, but this spin-off of 2003’s Bruce Almighty was considered the flop of the season. Starring Steve Carell fresh off the acclaimed 40 Yr. Old Virgin, this family feature came with a reported $175 million budget. Audiences and critics weren’t impressed.
Stardust
Domestic Gross: $38 million
This fantasy flick with Claire Danes, Robert De Niro, and Michelle Pfeiffer only earned a bit more than half its $70 million budget domestically. However, director Matthew Vaughn has bounced back in a significant way with Kick-Ass, X-Men: First Class, and Kingsman: The Secret Service.
The Invasion
Domestic Gross: $15 million
Another remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers, bad reviews sunk this pic that featured Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, fresh off his heralded debut as James Bond.
I Know Who Killed Me
Domestic Gross: $7 million
Lindsay Lohan was a long way from Freaky Friday and Mean Girls with this panned psychological thriller that featured the starlet as a stripper. Audiences turned away.
And that does it, folks! You can rest assure you’ll see summer posts recounting 1988, 1998, and 2008 in a year’s time…
Thirteen years after its predecessor opened over the Turkey Day weekend, Billy Bob Thornton’s booze fueled holiday cheer returns in Bad Santa 2. The original has hit cult status, but it’s worth noting that it did quite well in its initial theatrical run. In 2003, it debuted to $12.2 million over the Friday to Sunday holiday frame and $16.8 million counting its Wednesday and Thursday grosses. It eventually earned $60M domestic.
Mark Waters (maker of hits like Freaky Friday and Mean Girls) takes over directorial duties from Terry Zwigoff. Thornton is back in the title role alongside returnees Tony Cox and Brett Kelly, in addition to Kathy Bates and Christina Hendricks.
2016 has seen a consistent pattern of long gestating sequels not matching the grosses of the first. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bad Santa 2 followed the same trajectory. Reviews so far have been mixed to negative. I’ll predict this doesn’t match what we saw 13 years ago and struggles to top low to mid double digits for its five-day.
Bad Santa 2 opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
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