My super duper earliest Oscar predictions in the big races has reached Best Director with only Picture left. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:
These will be monthly predictions until August when they become weekly. Here’s how I have the filmmakers performing at this early stage. I currently have four past winners and a first-time nominee in the mix.
TODD’S APRIL 2022 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
It’s been an entire week since The Slap… check that, the 94th Academy Awards where CODA parlayed its Sundance buzz from January 2021 all the way to a Best Picture victory.
That also means I’ve managed to wait a whole week without speculation for the next Academy Awards which will hopefully be a slap free zone. So what are some titles that could be vying for attention?
On May 27th and after numerous delays, Top Gun: Maverick will find Tom Cruise returning to his iconic role some 36 years after the original. There’s a decent chance it could be up for similar prizes that its predecessor landed like Sound, Film Editing, and Song (courtesy of Lady Gaga apparently). Visual Effects is a possibility as well.
My weekly Oscar prediction posts won’t begin until mid to late August. In the meantime, you’ll get individualized write-ups for pics that open or screen at festivals.
Yet for today – I feel the need. The need to identify 21 other 2022 titles that might end up on the Academy’s radar. Enjoy!
Armageddon Time
Despite acclaimed movies like The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra, James Gray has yet to connect with awards voters. This drama, rumored to be centered on his Queens upbringing, is the next hopeful and features a stellar cast including Anne Hathaway, Anthony Hopkins, and Jeremy Strong. Release Date: TBD
Avatar 2
The 2009 original amassed nine nominations and won took home three. The first sequel (there’s three more on the way) arrives in December from James Cameron. Will it capture the critical and box office magic of part one? That’s impossible to know at this juncture, but one can safely assume it’ll be up for some tech categories like Sound and Visual Effects. Release Date: December 16th
Babylon
Damien Chazelle is no stranger to the big dance. Whiplash was a BP nominee and J.K. Simmons won Supporting Actor. Chazelle took Director for his follow-up La La Land along with Emma Stone’s Actress victory and it almost famously took BP. First Man nabbed four nominations, but missed the top of the line races. Babylon is a period drama focused on Hollywood’s Golden Age and should be right up the Academy’s alley. The cast includes Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Tobey Maguire. Release Date: December 25th
Canterbury Glass
Robbie also turns up in David O. Russell’s latest ensemble piece. Anytime he’s behind the camera, Oscar nods typically follow (think The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle). Slated for November, the dramedy also features Christian Bale, John David Washington, Rami Malek, Zoe Saldana, Robert De Niro, Mike Myers, and… Chris Rock. Release Date: November 4th
Elvis
Arriving in June but with a Cannes unveiling in May, Baz Luhrmann’s musical bio of The King stars Austin Butler in the title role and Tom Hanks as The Colonel. If this doesn’t contend for the major awards, I would still anticipate potential tech recognition (Production Design, Sound, etc…). Release Date: June 24th
Empire of Light
Sam Mendes was likely in the runner-up position in 2019 for Picture and Director (behind Parasite) with 1917. His follow-up is an English set romance starring Olivia Colman (who would be going for her fourth nomination in five years), Michael Ward, and Colin Firth. Release Date: TBD
Everything Everywhere All at Once
From two filmmakers known collectively as Daniels, Once is already out in limited release with spectacular reviews (97% on RT). The sci-fi action comedy might be too bizarre for the Academy, but I wouldn’t count it out as its admirers are vocal. Picture, Director, Actress (Michelle Yeoh), and Original Screenplay are all on the table. Release Date: out in limited release, opens wide April 8th
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg directs a semi-autobiographical tale and cowrites with his Lincoln and West Side Story scribe Tony Kushner. The cast includes Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen, and Paul Dano. Needless to say, this is a major contender on paper. Release Date: November 23rd
Killers of the Flower Moon
Alongside The Fabelmans, this might be the most obvious nominee from a personnel standpoint. Martin Scorsese helms this western crime drama featuring Jesse Plemons, Lily Gladstone, and his two frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. Apple TV just became the first streamer to get a BP victory with CODA. This could be the second in a row. Release Date: November
Poor Things
In 2018, The Favourite scored a whopping ten nominations. Based on an acclaimed 1992 novel, Poor Things is Yorgos Lanthimos’s follow-up and it reunites him with Emma Stone along with Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Mark Ruffalo. The plot sounds bizarre but it could also be an Oscar bait role for Stone and others. Release Date: TBD
Rustin
One of Netflix’s contenders is George C. Wolfe’s profile of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin (played by Colman Domingo). In 2020, Wolfe directed Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman to nods for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Look for Domingo to be a competitor and the supporting cast includes Chris Rock (maybe he will be back at the show), Glynn Turman, and Audra McDonald. Release Date: TBD
See How They Run
The 1950s set murder mystery could provide 27-year-old Saoirse Ronan with an opportunity to land her fifth nomination. Sam Rockwell, David Oyelowo, Adrien Brody, and Ruth Wilson are among the supporting players. Tom George directs. Release Date: TBD
She Said
Five years after the scandal rocked Hollywood, She Said from Maria Schrader recounts the New York Times sexual misconduct investigation into Harvey Weinstein. Zoe Kazan, Carey Mulligan, and Patricia Clarkson lead the cast. Release Date: November 18th
The Son
Florian Zeller won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 for The Father along with Anthony Hopkins taking Best Actor. This follow-up (based on the director’s play) finds Hopkins reprising his Oscar-winning part in supporting fashion. Other cast members seeking awards attention include Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, and Vanessa Kirby. Release Date: TBD
TAR
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Todd Field behind the camera. Previous efforts In the Bedroom and Little Children received 8 nominations between them. A decade and a half following Children comes this Berlin set drama with Cate Blanchett, Noemie Merlant, and Mark Strong. Release Date: October 7th
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Scheduled for a Cannes bow in May, Longing is a fantasy romance from the legendary mind of George Miller (who last made Mad Max: Fury Road which won six tech Oscars). Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton star. Release Date: TBD
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Mickey Rourke to a comeback narrative nod for 2008’s The Wrestler. Two years later, his follow-up Black Swan earned Natalie Portman a statue. Brendan Fraser is hoping for the same treatment with The Whale as he plays a 600 pound man attempting to reconnect with his daughter. Costars include Sadie Sink, Hong Chau, and Samantha Morton. I’d expect Makeup and Hairstyling could also be in play with this. Release Date: TBD
White Noise
Not a remake of the Michael Keaton supernatural thriller from 2005, this is Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to Marriage Story. Based on a 1985 novel, it’s the filmmaker’s first picture based on other source material. Marriage landed three acting nods (with Laura Dern winning Supporting Actress). The cast here includes frequent Baumbach collaborator Adam Driver, real-life partner Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Andre Benjamin, Alessandro Nivola, and Don Cheadle. This could be Netflix’s strongest contender. Release Date: TBD
The Woman King
Expect this West Afrian set historical epic from Gina Prince-Bythewood to be heavily touted by Sony with awards bait roles for leads Viola Davis and Thuso Mbedu. The supporting cast includes John Boyega and Lashana Lynch. Release Date: September 16th
Women Talking
Based on a 2018 novel, Sarah Polley writes and directs this drama focused on eight Mennonite women and their story of abuse. The sterling cast includes Frances McDormand, Jessie Buckley, Ben Whishaw, Claire Foy, and Rooney Mara. Release Date: TBD
And that’s just a small preview of the features that could materialize for the 95th Academy Awards! As always, the speculation on this site will continue throughout the year and into the next. Stay tuned…
The work of Anthony Hopkins in The Father is my third Case Of post for the five Best Actor contenders. If you missed the first two for Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), you can find them here:
Nearly 30 years after winning Best Actor for his iconic role as Hannibal Lecter in The Silence of the Lambs, the 83-year-old Hopkins is receiving some of the best reviews of his career for Florian Zeller’s Alzheimer’s drama. This is his sixth nod overall and his second in a row after last year’s supporting turn in The Two Popes. Hopkins is a beloved actor who has been seen a strong candidate in this race ever since it debuted at Sundance back in January 2020.
The Case Against Anthony Hopkins
Simply put: Chadwick Boseman. All major precursors have bestowed their honors on the late performer’s role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
The Verdict
It’s hard to imagine Boseman not taking the gold at this point, but Hopkins and Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) are looked at the only two potential spoilers. If Hopkins were to win BAFTA tomorrow, perhaps that will feed more speculation. However, Boseman is the heavy favorite.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Father costar Olivia Colman…
Florian Zeller’s The Father takes us devastatingly into the mind of a man who’s losing his own to dementia. Based on the director’s 2012 play Le Pere, the film is not an easy watch due to both its emotional themes and often confusing storyline. However, the latter is on purpose as The Father is frequently told from the viewpoint of Anthony (Anthony Hopkins) as he has lost his grip on time, place, and reality.
Primarily taking place in a London flat, Anthony is being cared for by his daughter Anne (Olivia Colman) as the picture opens. It doesn’t take long to realize he suffers lapses in cognition. Anne tells her father that she will soon move to Paris because she’s fallen in love. Shortly thereafter we see Anne in the form of another woman (Olivia Williams) and she’s married to Paul (Mark Gatiss), which puts Anne’s recent tale of French relocation into question. Paul is later seen in the form of another being (Rufus Sewell) with Colman’s iteration of Anne back in the mix.
This is the puzzle piece in which we, the audience, are constantly piecing together. It’s soon apparent that we are subject to Anthony’s failing perspective. The Father covers the familiar issues involved with dementia in often unfamiliar ways: elder abuse, the exhaustive toll on family members, the brief moments of clarity that justify soldiering on.
There’s also the issue of another daughter who Anthony holds in high regard, but has seemingly disappeared from the scene. We see glimpses of Anthony’s gregarious personality when he lays on the charm for a prospective new caretaker (Imogen Poots). It coincides with his sometimes dismissive treatment of Anne.
All of this is held together by a masterful performance from Hopkins. Despite his movie star persona, it takes virtually no time in its 97 minutes for the Oscar winner to disappear into the role. The supporting cast is all first-rate, but our emotions rise and fall with Anthony’s own. For those with first-hand experience with this awful illness, The Father is a challenge to witness. For any moviegoer, it’s also an example of a unique take on the subject with a brilliant performance in the center of the tragic confusion.
Now that Oscar nominations are out, this evening begins my (gulp) 33 part series outlining the cases for and against the nominees in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I will start with write-ups on the 8 movies recognized and then move to the directing and acting categories. We begin with Florian Zeller’s The Father:
The Case For The Father
The Alzheimer’s drama has been on the awards radar for over a year when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2020. Sitting at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s actually got the best rating of the pictures in contention. It’s fair to say The Father over performed on nomination morning with 6 mentions, including its two stars Anthony Hopkins (previous winner for The Silence of the Lambs) and Olivia Colman (Best Actress recipient two years back for The Favourite) and Best Adapted Screenplay. The Golden Globes also were very kind with their nods for it.
The Case Against The Father
While it came on strong towards the end with voters, its omission in Best Director for Zeller is a big miss. While not unheard of, it’s very rarefor a feature to take the big prize without its filmmaker making it in. The Globes put it in their mix, but it resulted in no victories.
The Verdict
Of the 8 BP hopefuls, I suspect The Father appears most likely to come up completely empty-handed on April 25th.
My Case of posts will continue with Judas and the Black Messiah…
Well… here we are. After about seven months of (mostly) weekly predictions and trying to put the puzzle piece together that is the 2020 Oscar season, my final predictions have arrived. The Academy’s picks will be revealed on Monday morning in a crazy year that includes selections from January and February of 2021. This is the last year where there can be anywhere from 5-10 Best Picture nominees. Next year that shifts to a fixed 10 (thank goodness). I’m sticking with nine since that’s been the average number, but who knows what’ll happen?
In this wild COVID time frame, it’s something to look back at my initial predictions back in August. How many nominations will Dune and The French Dispatch receive? Will Jennifer Hudson nab her second nod for Respect? Can Joaquin Phoenix make it back to back with C’Mon C’Mon? How will West Side Story do? Of course, all of those titles and more have been pushed back to the next Oscar season in a schedule that was ever shifting.
We are left with plenty of serious contenders and some races (the Supporting Acting ones come to mind) that seem especially tricky to project this time around. For each race, I’m revealing my predicted nominees as well as my first and second runners-up. On Monday, I’ll have my reaction to the nominees and how I did. One thing is likely: there will be surprises and snubs. There always are.
Yet after this topsy-turvy Oscar season and thousands of words dedicated to piecing the puzzle together, here’s where I have landed!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: The Father
2nd Runner-Up: News of the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
1st Runner-Up: Regina King, One Night in Miami
2nd Runner-Up: Florian Zeller, The Father
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
1st Runner-Up: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
2nd Runner-Up: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
1st Runner-Up: Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
2nd Runner-Up: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
1st Runner-Up: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
2nd Runner-Up: Helena Zengel, News of the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland
1st Runner-Up: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
2nd Runner-Up: Alan Kim, Minari
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Sound of Metal
2nd Runner-Up: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
1st Runner-Up: News of the World
2nd Runner-Up: The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
1st Runner-Up: The Willoughbys
2nd Runner-Up: Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Collective
Dick Johnson Is Dead
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
1st Runner-Up: All In: The Fight for Democracy
2nd Runner-Up: Boys State
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
Dear Comrades!
La Llorona
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us
1st Runner-Up: Collective
2nd Runner-Up: Night of the Kings
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Judas and the Black Messiah
2nd Runner-Up: Cherry
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Ammonite
Emma
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
1st Runner-Up: News of the World
2nd Runner-Up: The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Mank
2nd Runner-Up: The Father
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
Birds of Prey
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Pinocchio
1st Runner-Up: Mank
2nd Runner-Up: The Glorias
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul
1st Runner-Up: Tenet
2nd Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Si” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
1st Runner-Up: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
2nd Runner-Up: “Rain Song” from Minari
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Runner-Up: Mulan
2nd Runner-Up: Tenet
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
1st Runner-Up: Nomadland
2nd Runner-Up: Tenet
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
1st Runner-Up: The One and Only Ivan
2nd Runner-Up: Soul
And this equates to a final tally showing these movies getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
4 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
The Father, The Midnight Sky, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Mauritanian, Mulan, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, La Llorona, The Life Ahead, My Octopus Teacher, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Tenet, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
Be sure to check back Monday for my thoughts on what transpires on nomination morning!
February 21st was the last date I published Oscar predictions and a lot has changed since then. We have had the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The PGA nominations came out today. All of those events have altered categories below. This also serves as the penultimate estimates as the actual nominations come out a week from today!
Let me break down the big changes in the major races:
In Best Picture, it’s Judas and the Black Messiah in my projected nine nominees. I have finally eliminated Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods from the mix. Contrary to several prognosticators and despite its notable PGA omission, I still have News of the World on my board. Titles like Sound of Metal and The Father still lurk.
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) makes her first appearance for Best Director and that drops Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Steven Yeun (Minari) vaults into the Actor race with Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) falling. In fact, I now only have Bloods getting one nomination and that’s Chadwick Boseman in Supporting Actor. I’m not super confident in that anymore since he appears to a heavy favorite to win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The fifth slot for Supporting Actor is now filled by David Strathairn (Nomadland) over Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Maria Bakalova’s comedic work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm nabs the fifth Supporting Actress spot over Helena Zengel (News of the World).
In addition to these changes, we have new number ones in Best Picture (Nomadland over Trial), Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya from Judas and the Black Messiah over Sacha Baron Cohen in Trial), and Supporting Actress (The Father‘s Olivia Colman over Hillbilly Elegy‘s Glenn Close).
Now… about Supporting Actress. While Boseman, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), and Kaluuya can rightly be called front runners in their respective categories, I’ve never seen Supporting Actress more wide open. I have Colman listed at #1 because she’s the only performer that I’m saying gets a nod with relative confidence. There’s no favorite (or favourite if you will) at the moment. Maybe the SAG Awards will help clear it up. Doubtful.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions up this Friday!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. The Father (PR: 11)
12. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Another Round
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
7. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
9. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 7)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
6. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 8)
9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
10. Alan Kim, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Soul (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Cow (PR: 5)
7. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
9. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10, Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Collective (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. La Llorona (PR: 9)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
9. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. The Glorias (PR: 8)
10. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 10)
9. The Little Things (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The Little Things (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “lo Si” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 8)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 9)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Emma (PR: 2)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Greyhound (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Mulan (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
This equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers:
13 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Minari
5 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah
4 Nominations
One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
3 Nominations
The Father, Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Soul, Welcome to Chechnya
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Da 5 Bloods, Dick Johnson Is Dead, Greyhound, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Wolfwalkers
It’s a good week for News of the World and Minari and not so much for The Father with my latest Oscar prediction updates. News is back in my estimated nine Picture nominees and that drops The Father out. Da 5 Bloods is clinging ever so slightly to the nine spot with Judas and the Black Messiah, The Father, and Sound of Metal hot on its heels.
In Director, I’m replacing Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) over Florian Zeller (The Father). In Supporting Actress, Helena Zengel’s Globes/SAG nominated turn in News of the World makes the final cut replacing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm).
And there’s a new #1 in Actress with Carey Mulligan nabbing the pole position over Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
You can read about all the movement below! And on a side note, I will have winner predictions for the Golden Globes (airing February 28) up later this week.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 11)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. The Father (PR: 8)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
7. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 7)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 5)
9. Soul (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 3)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 9)
9. La Llorona (PR: 7)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Emma (PR: 2)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
8. The Glorias (PR: 8)
9. News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: 6)
7. The Glorias (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Little Things (PR: 10)
10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
8. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 10)
8. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: 9)
9. “Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
9. Mulan (PR: 9)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Soul (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 7)
7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
8. The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: 9)
10. Bloodshot (PR: 10)
That works out to these pictures grabbing these numbers in term of nominations:
13 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World
6 Nominations
Minari, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
3 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, Boys State, Collective, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Welcome to Chechnya, Wolfwalkers
We are now precisely one month away from nominations in this elongated Oscar season! The big development from last week was the release of shortlists in six categories covering feature length titles: Documentary Feature, International Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. That’s why you’ll see significant changes in those races particularly…
Yet that’s not all as I’ve swapped out some performers and movies in five top tier competitions.
In Best Picture, Promising Young Woman is in my estimated nine and that takes out News of the World
The fifth slot for Best Actress now goes to Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday and this drops Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead
For the first time, I’m listing Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) in Supporting Actress. That means Ellen Burstyn (who’s missed SAG and Globe nods) is on the outside looking in
The screenplay races both have alterations with Never Rarely Sometimes Always in Original Screenplay (over Da 5 Bloods) and First Cow back in Adapted over I’m Thinking of Ending Things
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: 6)
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Soul (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Demon Slayer
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. Boys State (PR: 7)
5. Crip Camp (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 9)
7. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Dissident
Totally Under Control
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. A Sun (PR: 5)
4. Two of Us (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
7. La Llorona (PR: 9)
8. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
9. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. The Glorias (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Little Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Mulan
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
The Little Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 9)
7. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)
9. “Rain Song” from Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Emma (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 10)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Mulan (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Father
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Greyhound (PR: 8)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 9)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Love and Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bloodshot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Greyhound
Wonder Woman 1984
Sonic the Hedgehog
The Call of the Wild
That shakes out to these films getting these numbers in terms of nods:
13 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World
3 Nominations
Emma, Promising Young Woman, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, First Cow, The Life Ahead, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Onward, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
It was a major week in terms of Oscar forecasting as the Golden Globe and SAG nominations were unveiled this week. You can read all about my reactions to both of those announcements right here:
So… what’s changed? We start in Best Picture with Minari getting back into my estimated nine nominees with Judas and the Black Messiah dropping out. Truth be told, spots 6-11 in the BP derby seem to be constantly moving. Other prognosticators have taken Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods out of the mix after its Globes shutout, but I’m not there yet (especially after its SAG Ensemble nod).
However, I am replacing Spike Lee with Regina King in the Best Director race. In Best Actress, Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) gets the wide open 5 spot over Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie).
The other acting races remain the same as I’ve kept Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) in Supporting Actress despite her snubs from the Globes and SAG. I definitely toyed with including Helena Zengel (News of the World) over her (she was nominated for both) and that still could happen, but not this week.
Even more surprising was the Globe & SAG omissions of Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) in Best Actor. He’s still clinging to #5 in my predicted nominees. In Supporting Actor, everyone was rather shocked to see Jared Leto (The Little Things) make the list in this week’s nominations. He vaults up to #6 in my possibilities in his first initial ranking, but I still can’t pull the trigger on the Academy naming him.
This Tuesday marks another significant date as we march towards the March 15th nominations. The shortlists will be announced for the following races: Best Documentary Feature Film, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, and Visual Effects. You can count on those lists altering my estimates next weekend, as they always do.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm & Marie
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
9. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. First Cow (PR: 5)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Totally Under Control (PR: 4)
7. Boys State (PR: 6)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. The Mole Agent (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
4. Two of Us (PR: 8)
5. A Sun (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Collective (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 6)
9. La Llorona (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
My Little Sister
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Glorias (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pinocchio
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. The Little Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 4)
5. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
7. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 7)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
10. “Tigress & Tweed” from The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Greyhound (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Mank (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Life Ahead, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Night of the Kings, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Two of Us, Wolfwalkers
