Tag: film

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov in Sean Baker’s Anora.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Yura Borisov:

As sympathetic henchman Igor to Mikey Madison’s title character, the Russian actor has run the table with nominations in significant precursors including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. After a weekend in which his picture won top prizes at Critics Choice and PGA and Baker’s direction took DGA, Anora has become the Academy’s frontrunner and perhaps those coattails could sweep him in.

The Case Against Yura Borisov:

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is the Globe and Critics Choice recipient and could sweep through the season. If he doesn’t, Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) are in BP nominees as well and both possess veteran careers that could lead to an overdue feeling.

The Verdict:

A victory isn’t much of a real possibility unless he surprises at BAFTA or SAG.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Director and that’s Sean Baker for (you guessed it) Anora…

February 14-17 Box Office Predictions

For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction
Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.

Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.

It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.

And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

3. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

4. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.

Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.

Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.

Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.

Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.

Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Monica Barbaro:

As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.

The Case Against Monica Barbaro:

Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.

The Verdict:

Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…

36th PGA Awards Reaction: The Producers Anoint Anora

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) provided a weekend hat trick for Sean Baker’s Anora as it won their top award over my pick of The Brutalist. This is the same narrative that occurred Friday evening when it took Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards over Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama. Also on Saturday night, Baker was selected as the Directors Guild of America recipient over Corbet. As discussed in the blog post recounting that ceremony, the DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nearly always match.

In one weekend, Anora became the Academy’s frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no other logical way to look at it. With Emilia Pérez significantly weakened due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s recent controversies and A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked yet to grab any major BP precursors, Anora is elevated with CCA/PGA/DGA in a 48 hour period. Wicked still could win SAG in a couple of weeks and so could Conclave. I also feel the latter is a possibility for BP at BAFTA. The Brutalist is also a threat at the British equivalent of the Oscars. In other words, Best Picture isn’t over but Anora is your new leader (or continued leader if you had it in first). I have had The Brutalist in that position for months and that’s no longer the case.

As for the PGA’s other two categories, The Wild Robot is your Animated Theatrical Motion Picture while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (not up at Oscar) is the documentary victor. I correctly called those two competitions.

Keep an eye on the blog throughout the coming days as I continue to post Case Of Oscar write-ups. I’ll also have BAFTA winner predictions up later this week!

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Reaction

The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.

Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.

I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.

My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.

As for other categories, here’s where I was right:

Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong:

The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.

What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…

Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention

3 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

2 Wins

Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain

1 Win

Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Oscars: The Case of Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The final entry in this competition is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.

The Case for Wicked:

If Best Picture were (ahem) a popularity contest, the adaptation of the iconic stage play would fly away with the gold. The worldwide tally is $722 million and counting and that’s just ahead of Dune: Part Two‘s global take. It tied for the second most Academy nominations at 10 (along with The Brutalist) contending in Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Precursor BP nods were achieved at the Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA and it’s also up for Ensemble at SAG.

The Case Against Wicked:

There are some key misses as BAFTA passed it by and it lost at the Globes in Best Film (Musical or Comedy) to Emilia Pérez (before recent controversy). Despite the double digits noms, the omissions for Chu’s direction and Adapted Screenplay are noteworthy. The voters could figure they can wait until part two coming later this year to honor it.

The Verdict:

Down the line victories in Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound in particular appear doable. I wouldn’t completely discount a Wicked BP win, but it’s a long shot. If it manages to take Ensemble at SAG, expect chatter to rise. I’d still be skeptical.

My Case Of Posts will continue with our first Best Actress hopeful and that’s Cynthia Erivo in Wicked…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here
Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys
Oscars: The Case of The Substance

Oscars: The Case of The Substance

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is The Substance from Coralie Fargeat.

The Case for The Substance:

Undoubtedly one of the buzziest (and bonkers) cinematic experiences of 2024, The Substance landed five nominations with Fargeat’s direction, Best Actress (Demi Moore), Original Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling in the mix. Actress and Makeup and Hairstyling are particularly possible for victories. As far as precursors, BP noms were achieved at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA.

The Case Against The Substance:

The Academy doesn’t typically hand out BP wins for the body horror genre. It might be a little too out there for some voting members. While its precursor performance was impressive, it missed the BP cut at BAFTA. The only two pics in the 21st century to miss BAFTA and take the top prize at the Oscars are 2004’s Million Dollar Baby and 2021’s CODA. It fell short to Emilia Pérez in the Musical or Comedy competition at the Globes.

The Verdict:

The Substance has the stuff to be an Oscar recipient next month, but not in BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Wicked…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here
Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys

Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.

Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.

Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.

Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.

Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora

Documentaries

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)

There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters

FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)

All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

I’ll have recap up (along with PGA) this weekend!

36th Producers Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

Seven of the last 10 PGA top prize winners ended up winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The 36th edition of their awards ceremony takes place Saturday and the guild also honors documentary and animated features.

Let’s walk through all 3 races with my predicted winner and a runner-up and some brief commentary.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked

In this wide open BP derby, this is where momentum could truly be achieved (coupled with Critics Choice this weekend). I believe Dune, Pain, September, and Substance are the only nominees with no real shot. I’ve been consistent with The Brutalist being slotted first in my BP rankings over the last several weeks. I’ll stay with that, but if it comes up short here… the narrative could change.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Like this category at other awards shows, this should come to Flow v. Robot and I’m giving the latter an edge (unlike the Globes where I correctly called Flow).

PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

Outstanding Producer of Documentrary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Gaucho Gaucho, Mediha, Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Porcelain War, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, We Will Dance Again

PGA often marches to their own drum with the docs. That’s true this year as Porcelain War is the only feature listed among this group that’s also up for Oscar. Therefore it might be the safer bet, but I’m going with Super/Man.

PREDICTED WINNER: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

I’ll have a recap up this weekend!