Oscar Predictions: Flamin’ Hot

I didn’t do an Oscar Predictions post on Flamin’ Hot when it premiered at South by Southwest back in March or when it began streaming over the summer on Hulu and Disney+. Eva Longoria’s directorial debut tells the true life tale of a man who claimed he invented the title seasoned Cheetos. Jesse Garcia, Annie Gonzalez, Dennis Haysbert, and Tony Shalhoub star.

Reviews were fairly decent at 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, but this didn’t strike me as an awards contender at the time or now. That’s with one exception and this brings us to Diane Warren. The songwriter has contributed many tracks to feature films and she has 14 Academy nominations to speak for it. This dates back nearly 40 years starting with “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, continuing with gigantic hits like “Because You Loved Me” from Up Close and Personal and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon, and including last year’s ceremony with “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman. Despite the impressive number of noms, Warren has yet to win Original Song (though she did pick up an Honorary Oscar for her work earlier this year).

Flamin’ Hot includes the track “The Fire Inside” performed by Becky G and written by the frequent hopeful. It hasn’t been on my radar screen in my previous predictions. Yet now that a planned documentary about Warren seems to be delayed to 2024 (in which I’m sure she’ll have a contending track), one has to consider this song for inclusion. Don’t be surprised if it materializes in my top ten possibilities in my next update. It’s risky to bet against the penner of the tune. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Boss Baby: Family Business Box Office Prediction

The Boss Baby: Family Business looks to pacify little ones and their parents over the Independence Day weekend. The DreamWorks animated sequel follows up on the March 2017 pic which greatly over performed with its target audience. Alec Baldwin is back voicing the title character alongside James Marsden, Amy Sedaris, Ariana Greenblatt, Eva Longoria, Jimmy Kimmel, Lisa Kudrow, and Jeff Goldblum. Tom McGrath resumes directorial duties.

In the spring of 2017, The Boss Baby was projected to earn around $30 million for its start. However, it blew past those estimates with $50.2 million in its opening frame and eventually took in $175 million domestically. Several factors are likely to complicate that kind of debut for part II.

For one, some of the little viewers who flocked to see it are four years older now. COVID-19 is still somewhat limiting potential. This was originally slated for March before its pandemic related delay. Family Business is also hitting streamer Peacock on the same day and some may simply choose to hold their Baby viewing from the comfort of home. That said, Peacock is not anywhere in the spectator realm of the big boys like Netflix, Amazon, or HBO Max as of yet.

Estimates have this reaching approximately $20 million over the holiday. I’ll give it a slight Baby bump considering its predecessor easily managed to top forecasts.

The Boss Baby: Family Business opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Forever Purge prediction, click here:

The Forever Purge Box Office Prediction

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction


Making the leap from the Nickelodeon small screen for a live action rendering, Dora and the Lost City of Gold looks to cash in at theaters next weekend. The family adventure is based on the animated series “Dora the Explorer” that started back in 2000. James Bobin, best known for The Muppets reimagining and Alice Through the Looking Glass, directs. Isabela Moner, recently seen in Instant Family, is the title character with a supporting cast including Eugenio Derbez, Michael Pena, and Eva Longoria. Danny Trejo and Benicio del Toro provided voice work

Paramount is hopeful that a pot of gold will exist with Latino audiences and kids who’ve made the TV show part of their programming over the last many years. The film is probably review proof and they’ve been mixed so far. This shouldn’t face much trouble having the largest debut of the five pictures arriving over the weekend. I’ll say high teens to low 20s is where this lands.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Dog Days Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/01/18): I am revising my estimate due to the film’s release on Wednesday next week, not Friday from $6.4 million down to $5.1 million.

An ensemble of familiar actors and an ensemble of canines come together for the family dramedy Dog Days, which hits theaters next weekend. The film is directed by Ken Marino, who last made the successful comedy How to Be a Latin Lover. Cast members include Eva Longoria, Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Lauren Lapkus, Thomas Lennon, Adam Pally, Rob Corddry, Tig Notaro, and Finn Wolfhard.

Movies dealing with man’s best friend can certainly post pleasing results, like Marley and Me and A Dog’s Purpose. Yet I don’t see Dog Days achieving their grosses. Its upstart studio LD Entertainment doesn’t exactly have a strong track record producing hits. A better comp here could be this May’s Show Dogs, which debuted to just $6 million.

I’ll say this manages to just outdo that number.

Dog Days opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Meg prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/the-meg-box-office-prediction/

For my Slender Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/31/slender-man-box-office-prediction/

For my BlacKkKlansman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/03/blackkklansman-box-office-prediction/

Overboard Box Office Prediction

***Blogger’s Update II (05/03/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am returning back to original estimate at $11.8 million. Been a whirlwind with this one…

**Blogger’s Update (04/26/18): I have soured considerably on my Overboard estimate. I’m revising my prediction from $11.8 million to just $7.8 million.

Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris headline the remake Overboard, premiering next weekend. The comedy is based on a 1987 romantic comedy directed by Garry Marshall that starred Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell. It was considered a moderate success (grossing $27 million at the time). A co-production of Lionsgate and Pantelion, the latter is the same studio that turned Derbez’s How to be a Latin Lover into an unexpected success around the same time last year. That pic opened to $12.2 million and made $32 million domestically.

Rob Greenberg directs with a supporting cast that includes Eva Longoria, John Hannah, and Swoosie Kurtz. The film was originally slated for an April 20th release before being pushed back two weeks (the shift of Avengers: Infinity War likely had something to do with that). Faris has been largely absent from the big screen as she’s concentrated mostly on her CBS sitcom “Mom”. Her last headlining role came with 2012’s What’s Your Number? (which was a disappointment) and we’re a decade from her last hit The House Bunny. 

Current theater counts put this at a rather low 1500 screens (it could certainly rise and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does). That’s roughly the number that Latin Lover had. I foresee Overboard posting a similar opening weekend, which should be good enough to come in second to the sophomore frame of the Marvel superheroes.

Overboard opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my Tully prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/26/tully-box-office-prediction/

For my Bad Samaritan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/28/bad-samaritan-box-office-prediction/