There’s a trio of pics debuting or expanding this weekend, but they could all find themselves outside of the top five. A24’s slasher comedy Bodies Bodies Bodies hopes to build on its impressive NY/LA limited release while the Diane Keaton comedy Mack & Rita and survival thriller Fall premiere. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Both Bodies and Fall are expected to hit around 1200 screens. That’s low and limits their range. Let’s start with Fall as its lack of promotion could find it failing to even make $1 million. I’m projecting $1.2 million and that obviously leaves it well outside the high five (and ten for that matter).
Bodies is a bit tougher to figure out. In six venues in our nation’s two largest cities, it took in a robust per screen average of nearly $40k. Yet as I mentioned in my individual post, I’m skeptical that this plays well in the middle of the country. My $4.4 million estimate also leaves it on the outside looking in.
Mack & Rita also seems to be suffering from lack of awareness. I’m only going with $2.3 million as this should come and go in multiplexes quickly.
With the newcomers out of the way, that leaves holdovers to talk about. Sony’s Bullet Train with Brad Pitt opened right on track with reasonable expectations (more on that below) and it should have no trouble remaining in the top spot again. With minimal competition, it could slide in the mid 40s in the best case scenario. That said, if you look at action titles of early August past, a drop in the low 50s to mid 50s seems just as likely. DC League of Super-Pets should stay in second… with a caveat.
If Top Gun: Maverick continues percentage drops in the teens (and there’s no reason to think it won’t), it should re-enter the top 5. Nope could drop out altogether with Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru battling it out for the 4 spot alongside Bodies Bodies Bodies. There’s even a chance Maverick could go from #6 to #2.
Here’s how I see the charts playing out and I’ll expand it to a top ten this time around:
1. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
3. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. Bodies Bodies Bodies
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
7. Nope
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
8. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
9. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
10. Easter Sunday
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
11. Mack & Rita
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (August 5-7)
Bullet Train came in right where I thought it would with $30 million (my call was $29.7 million). While it certainly didn’t exceed expectations, it’s a perfectly decent opening and its overseas grosses are solid. The B+ Cinemascore indicates a somewhat fair-weather reaction so it’s worth monitoring how it holds up. As mentioned, the lack of competition should help.
DC League of Super-Pets had a stiffer sophomore fall than I anticipated with $11 million compared to my $13.6 million take. The two-week total is a muted $44 million.
Nope saw a drop of over 50% once again with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.1 million prediction. The three-week tally is approaching nine digits at $97 million.
Thor: Love and Thunder was fourth at $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million) as the MCU sequel became the highest pic in the franchise by eclipsing 2017’s Ragnarok. Total is $316 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I went with $6.9 million) for a $334 million haul.
Finally, the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday struggled in its start in 8th place with $5.4 million, just under my $5.6 million estimate.
As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.
Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…
Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.
The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.
That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.
I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans.
Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.
That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!
The release schedule for 2022 is always shifting (though thankfully not as much as in 2020 and 2021). This week, there were reports that Netflix’s Rustin will be pushed to 2023. While this isn’t 100% confirmed, it’s enough that I’ve moved it out of contention and that’s significant. I had it pegged for a Best Picture nomination as well as Actor (Colman Domingo) and Supporting Actress (Audra McDonald) in my post from 7 days ago.
The beneficiary of Rustin falling out of contention? None other than Top Gun: Maverick. Let me be clear – I’m very skeptical that it receives a nod in the biggest race of all. Yet it’s hard to ignore the potency of its box office supremacy over the summer. Oscar voters will know that audiences will root for its inclusion. And that could be enough to push it past the finish line.
In Actor, Bardo‘s Daniel Gimenez Cacho replaces Domingo while Zoe Kazan (She Said) rises to the final five in Supporting Actress. There’s another change in Actress as I’m putting Cate Blanchett (Tar) in the mix over Regina King (Shirley). The latter is another Netflix effort where the release date seems uncertain. If they verify 2022 in the near future, she could (and probably would) get back in the mix.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Elvis (PR: 16) (E)
17. Till (PR: 21) (+4)
18. Broker (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 20) (E)
21. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Amsterdam (PR: 23) (E)
24. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
The Killer
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (E)
12. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chinoye Chukwu, Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
Blogger’s Update (07/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Nope prediction slightly from $49.2M to $53.2M
Jordan Peele’s Nope should make it a hat trick for the director’s titles opening at #1. The only newcomer arriving in multiplexes this weekend, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Most estimates have the supernatural horror tale debuting between $40-60 million. I’m putting it right in the middle of that range, but reserving the right to revise when the buzz and reviews materialize throughout the week. If anything, I could see it moving up.
As for holdovers, Thor: Love and Thunder should drop to second after two weeks. The MCU fourquel experienced a significant tumble in its sophomore frame (more on that below). It should stabilize some in its third outing with a drop in the late 40s to low 50s.
Minions: The Rise of Gru is likely to fall one slot to third while the 4-5 could be interesting. It’s all about the second weekend percentage dip for Where the Crawdads Sing, which had a solid start. I’m projecting mid 40s and that could allow Top Gun: Maverick to narrowly remain in fourth if it only sees a 20% or lower decrease.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. Nope
Predicted Gross: $53.2 million
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $17 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
Box Office Results (July 15-17)
As anticipated, Thor: Love and Thunder remained atop the charts for a second frame. It was hammered a bit with a precipitous sophomore drop. Grossing $46.6 million (under my $50.2 million estimate), that’s a 68% decline and that’s a touch more than the 67% of MCU predecessor Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The ten-day earnings are $233 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was runner-up with $26.8 million, rising above my $23.1 million prediction. It’s up to an impressive $263 million with north of $300 million easily in its sights and then some.
Where the Crawdads Sing, based on a huge bestseller, satisfied an older and female crowd with $17.2 million out of the gate. While falling shy of my $18.7 million projection, it’s still a commendable start.
Top Gun: Maverick was fourth with $12.2 million (I said $10.9 million) as the phenomenon has reached $618 million in eight weeks.
Elvis was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside of the top five. The biopic added $8 million to its coffers as it passed the century mark with $106 million.
The animated Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hawk couldn’t find its family audience. Placing sixth with a piddly $6.3 million (well below my $10.5 million take), it got lost in the summer shuffle between Minions and the upcoming DC League of Super-Pets.
Finally, critically appreciated Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (on a low number of 980 screens) made a so-so $1.9 million for ninth place. Paris didn’t quite reach my prediction of $2.3 million.
For my mid-July Oscar predictions, the Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remain intact (with some ranking maneuvering). Same goes for the Screenplay races. However, there are some significant changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, I’ve moved Audra McDonald (Rustin) and Vanessa Kirby (The Son) in the final five while taking Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) out. For Supporting Actor, I’ve had Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) perched in #1 for many weeks. With this update, he drops all the way out of the top 5 with Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) now in first position. This moves Colin Firth (Empire of Light) into the predicted quintet.
As for other news, Taika Waititi’s sports pic Next Goal Wins appears to have pushed to 2023 (it was originally slated for 202o) and that explains it dropping out of contention. And for those who haven’t caught the recently released trailers for She Said and Amsterdam, you can find them below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (+1)
13. TAR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. White Noise (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (E)
16. Elvis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 21) (+3)
19. Broker (PR: 16) (-3)
20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Till (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Decision to Leave (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Amsterdam (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Killer (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Next Goal Wins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Todd Field, TAR (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, TAR (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Michelle Williams, Showing Up
Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Christian Bale, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Nina Hoss, TAR (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (E)
12. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, Amsterdam
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tar (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Good Nurse (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bones and All (PR: 13) (E)
14. Close (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Next Goal Wins
The Pale Blue Eye
You can anticipate the next update around the first of August!
A trio of new titles populate the mid-July box office though Thor is unlikely to be dethroned in his second frame. We have rural drama Where the Crawdads Sing (based on the bestseller), animated martial arts family comedy Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and the 1950s set dramedy Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Despite solid reviews thus far, Paris won’t reach the top five and top ten could even be tricky. Part of that is due to its smallish output on roughly 900 screens. My estimate is $2.3 million.
The wild card could be Crawdads. The novel is recent (it was the top selling book of 2019) and has its ardent fans. A debut of over $20 million is possible and it could reach the runner-up position. I’m putting it a bit under that and that should mean third place.
As for Paws, my projection of just over $10 million would put it in a dead heat with Top Gun: Maverick in its 8th weekend. If anything, I could see my guesstimate for the animated pic being revised down.
Thor: Love and Thunder hammered out the third largest opening of 2022 (more on that below). Yet the B+ Cinemascore average (low for the MCU) could mean a hefty sophomore dip. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the same grade and tumbled 67%. A low mid 60s drop for the Asgardian king should mean a $50-55 million range.
Minions: The Rise of Gru should remain in second (unless Crawdads impresses) with a third weekend take of between $20-25 million.
Here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $50.2 million
2. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $23.1 million
3. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
5. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
Box Office Results (July 8-10)
Thor: Love and Thunder easily set a personal best among the four Chris Hemsworth led pics with $144.1 million, besting predecessor Ragnarok by over $20 million. While a rock solid start, it’s on the lower end of expectations and I said $155.7 million. Out of the 29 MCU blockbusters, it ranks 12th as far as beginnings.
Minions: The Rise of Gru slipped to second with $46.1 million, just shy of my $48.8 million prediction. The Illumination smash is up to $210 million already.
Top Gun: Maverick was third with $15.5 million and I was more generous with $18.5 million. Tom Cruise’s phenomenon is flying high with $597 million.
Elvis was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11.6 million) as the biopic has taken in a sturdy $91 million.
Jurassic World: Dominion rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I went with $9.1 million. Total is $350 million.
Thor: Love and Thunder is the 29th entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and it will be the 29th to debut in first place when it opens Friday. My detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
The franchise is riding high off the success of Spider-Man: No Way Home and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The former King of Asgard’s fourth adventure is getting mixed reviews, but that didn’t hurt Multiverse and it shouldn’t matter much here. My projection in the mid 150s gives it a slightly better start than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Captain Marvel.
As for holdovers, Minions: The Rise of Gru blew away expectations (more on that below). It should lose around 50-55% of the Friday to Sunday portion of its opening holiday weekend. Top Gun: Maverick will land in third displaying the smallest dip of the bunch with Elvis and Jurassic World: Dominion rounding out the top five at 40% range falls.
Here’s how I see it looking:
1. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $155.7 million
2. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $48.8 million
3. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. Jurassic World: Dominion
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
Box Office Results (July 1-4)
Minions: The Rise of Gru set a pandemic era record for animated features with a bountiful $107 million. The fifth entry in the Despicable Me/Minions tales, Steve Carell and company soared past my (and everyone else’s) expectations. I had it making $86.4 million over the four-day Independence Day weekend. With an A Cinemascore grade, it should perform well into the future and keep the series chugging along (the next one is slated for summer 2024 already).
Top Gun: Maverick remained in second with $32.2 million – above my $29.8 million take. On the weekend of his 60th birthday, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever is up to $570 million.
Elvis shimmied down to third after premiering in first with $22.7 million, right in line with my $23.2 million projection. Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic is at an impressive $71 million with $100 million firmly in its sights.
Jurassic World: Dominion was fourth with $19.6 million compared to my guesstimate of $17.3 million. The sixth dino flick’s tally roared to $335 million.
The Black Phone rounded out the top five with $14.1 million (I said $14.5 million) as the low budget horror pic has rung up a pleasing $49 million.
Finally, Pixar’s Lightyear continued its uninspiring run with $7.6 million for a $106 million tally. I was more generous at $10.2 million.
It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.
The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).
However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Till (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Coming off a weekend where four pictures posted grosses north of $20 million (a first since 2018!), Minions: The Rise of Gru looks to set box office fireworks and rule the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The five-year wait between entries for the Despicable Me/Minions franchise could limit its potential a bit. However, my projected four-day haul approaching $80 million will easily give it the gold.
As for holdovers, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick should duke it out for second position. While the former edged Maverick for a #1 debut (more on that below), look for Tom Cruise and company to have a better hold and likely maintain runner-up status. It’s also important to remember that overall declines for most pics should be smaller than normal considering that July 4th falls on Monday.
Jurassic World: Dominion and The Black Phone should slide spots to 4th and 5th. There’s a slight chance Phone could experience a hefty slide (due to its being in the horror genre) and Lightyear stays fifth. However, given the Pixar pic’s underperformance and hefty sophomore dip, I don’t anticipate that being the case. Plus Phone nabbed a B+ Cinemascore grade which is just fine for that genre.
With that – let’s make it a top 6 forecast and remember these are projections for Friday to Monday given the Independence Day frame:
1. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $86.4 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
4. Jurassic World: Dominion
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The Black Phone
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
6. Lightyear
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (June 24-26)
In one of the closest finishes in recent box office times, Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis was crowned king with $31.2 million. While not quite matching my $35.6 million prediction, it’s a solid number for an adult skewering musical biopic.
Top Gun: Maverick continued its epic run in second with $29.6 million. Like with Elvis, I was a little high at $34.8 million. In five weeks of release, the spectacularly performing sequel has amassed $520 million. That’s the third all-time #5 frame behind Avatar and Titanic.
Jurassic World: Dominion fell to third after two weeks on top with $26.7 million, just under my $28.3 million take. The dino saga stands at a sturdy $303 million.
Critically appreciated fright fest The Black Phone opened in fourth with $23.6 million – ringing up a more impressive number than my $18.6 million projection. Considering its budget is only a reported $18 million, this will be yet another profitable venture for Blumhouse.
Finally, Lightyear slid from second to fifth. Crashing harder than anticipated in its second orbit after an unimpressive start, the Pixar spinoff made $18.1 million (I said $23.2 million). The two-week tally is a muted $89 million after ten days. For comparison sake, I had it making $85 million in its first three days.
My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.
As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.
I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.
In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)
25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)
11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Armageddon Time
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Nope
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)
10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)
11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)
14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 