Out August 22nd, the dark detective comedy Honey Don’t! marks the second feature in Ethan Coen and wife Tricia Cooke’s self-proclaimed “lesbian B-movie trilogy”. The first was last year’s Drive-Away Dolls and the follow-up returns Margaret Qualley in a starring role. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, Billy Eichner, and Chris Evans.
The Focus Features product debuted at Cannes to muted reactions. Rotten Tomatoes stands at just 42% with 46 on Metacritic. Looking at comps, Dolls is the glaringly obvious one. It debuted to a lowly $2.4 million in February 2024. That premiered on over 2200 screens while Don’t is scheduled for a mere 1200.
With scant buzz and middling reviews, I’m not even sure this reaches two bucks for starters.
Honey Don’t opening weekend prediction: $1.8 million
Before to its domestic debut in August, Honey Don’t! dropped at Cannes for a midnight screening. The crime comedy is Ethan Coen and wife Tricia Cooke’s follow-up to last year’s Drive-Away Dolls. It also stars Margaret Qualley with a supporting cast including Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, and Chris Evans.
Marking Ethan’s second narrative work sans brother Joel (and with Cookie co-scripting), Don’t! mostly arrived with a shrug in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 54% with Metacritic at 47. That’s below the respective 63/56 ratings for Dolls. Coen’s “first” picture never came close to being an awards contender and this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Super Mario Bros. Movie is out tomorrow and looks to rule the Easter holiday frame. While big money is about to flow through the pipeline, reviews are more of the mixed variety. The Illumination Entertainment animated production of the Nintendo property sits at 56% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This is the 13th feature from the studio. Of the previous dozen, only one (2013’s Despicable Me 2) has managed a Best Animated Feature mention. Illumination’s titles generate coins, but not nominations. That doesn’t look to change with Mario and Luigi’s new adventure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M
Universal and Illumination hopes The Super Mario Bros. Movie earns a lot of coinage when it debuts Wednesday, April 5th. The animated adaptation of the wildly influential and popular Nintendo game (and numerous spin-offs) comes from the Teen Titans! Go team of Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic. Chris Pratt and Charlie Day voice the iconic Mario and Luigi with Anya Taylor-Joy as the Princess. Other performers behind the mic include Jack Black, Keegan Michael-Key, Seth Rogen, Fred Armisen, Sebastian Maniscalco, and Charles Martinet (who voiced the plumbers in the original 80s game).
Given how huge this property has been for decades, the lack of cinematic treatments is a little surprising. Nintendo, however, is leery of licensing for adaptations. That might have something to do with 1993’s Super Mario Bros,, the live-action version with Bob Hoskins, John Leguizamo, and Dennis Hopper that critics scorched. It bombed upon arrival that summer when the Jurassic dinosaurs ruled the season.
It’s probably a safe assumption that Illumination won’t drop the ball with the moneymaking potential of this franchise. They’ve repeatedly proven their moneymaking abilities with the Despicable Me and Sing series and more.
Arriving over the five-day Easter holiday, Mario should capitalize on youngsters being out of school and the adults who owned the various iterations of the game attending. This is one “kid’s pic” where many of the parents will be cool with tagging along.
Over the Wednesday to Sunday frame, I believe $100 million plus could be in the pipeline. It might even get to nine digits over the traditional weekend.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
This was a weekend where TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was expected to easily nab the #1 spot at the box office. That mission was accomplished, but it did so with much less money than any prognosticator figured. The sequel to the 2014 original took in $34 million and that was about $20 million less than expected. I had a feeling it would under perform and forecasted a $48 million debut. However, I never figured a mid 30s premiere.
For some context, the first Lego experience five years ago made $69 million out of the gate and eventually earned $257 million domestically. In 2017, first franchise spin-off TheLegoBatmanMovie debuted to $53 million ($175 million total). The first sign of trouble came a few months later when TheLegoNinjagoMovie came in far under estimates with $20 million in its opening weekend and a lowly $59 million stateside. Yet some attributed the poor Ninjago performance to its limited niche audience.
TheSecondPart marked a hopeful return to form for Warner Bros considering it was a direct sequel to a picture that made over $250 million. There is no doubt that the number produced this weekend could block future plans for the series. Its best hope ahead could be the President’s Day weekend as the studio hopes it will have a small decline. Any way you cut it, though, part two will seriously come in under its predecessor. We now have two LegoMovie collapses in a row and it will be interesting to see how Warner handles it.
The Lego franchise has made nearly half a billion dollars at the domestic box office for Warner Bros since 2014 and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart will add to those coffers next weekend. It’s money hauls, however, have not translated to success with Oscar voters.
TheLegoMovie was critically acclaimed and seemed assured an Academy nod in Animated Feature four years ago. It was one of the most surprising snubs when it didn’t make the cut. There were two Lego pics in 2017 (TheLegoBatmanMovie, TheLegoNinjagoMovie). Neither of them managed to make the race that year.
While reviews for TheSecondPart are strong, several critics have said it doesn’t quite match the first part. Competition from animated sequels alone in 2019 (HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld, Frozen2, ToyStory4) is serious. Therefore it appears highly unlikely that this will be the year where Lego builds any standing with the awards crowd.
The Warner Animation Group hopes to build back up its near half billion dollar domestic franchise next weekend with the release of TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. This direct sequel arrives five years after its hit predecessor, though there’s been two spin-offs in the meantime. Mike Mitchell, who made ShrekForeverAfter and Trolls, takes over directing duties from Christopher Miller and Phil Lord (they wrote the screenplay). Returning voices include Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett (he’s Batman), Charlie Day, Nick Offerman, Alison Brie, and Will Ferrell. Familiar faces joining the voiceover party are aplenty. They include Tiffany Haddish, Maya Rudolph, Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Brooklyn Prince, and thespians from the DC Cinematic Universe (Gal Gadot, Margot Robbie, Jason Momoa).
In February of 2014, TheLegoMovie earned $69 million out of the gate with an eventual stateside take of $257 million. Our first spin-off, 2017’s TheLegoBatmanMovie, achieved $53 million for its start and $175 million total. A few months later, TheLegoNinjagoMovie was a legitimate disappointment. It premiered with only $20 million and didn’t leg out well ($59 million).
As they were with the first part, reviews are positive as this stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics, however, have noted it doesn’t quite match up to the original. While this should easily debut at #1, I’ll project that it falls short of the 2014 earnings. Topping $50 million is certainly possible, but I’ll go just shy of that number.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million
Global Road Entertainment is hoping audiences check into the Hotel Artemis when it debuts next weekend. The futuristic action flick comes from Drew Pearce in his directorial debut (he’s best known for co-writing Iron Man 3). Focusing on an underground hospital for the criminal element, Artemis stars Jodie Foster (in her first film appearance in five years) alongside Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, Brian Tyree Henry, Jenny Slate, Zachary Quinto, Charlie Day, and Dave Bautista.
The biggest hurdle for Artemis looks to be if general audiences are even aware of its existence. It seems the marketing campaign has been a bit low-key. Competition is a factor as Hereditary (while a horror pic) could be competing for a similar crowd. Reviews if they’re positive (none yet) could help a bit, but I’ll project there’s a significant amount of vacancy for its showings.
Hotel Artemis opening weekend prediction: $5 million
The giant monster mash franchise that began nearly five years ago is back on screen next weekend with the release of Pacific Rim Uprising. There’s some new faces behind and in front of the camera this time around. The original Pacific Rim debuted in the summer of 2013 to decent stateside box office numbers, earning $37 million in its opening weekend and $101 million overall. It reached over $400 million worldwide.
Part 1 came from recently minted Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, who just shares a producer credit here. Steven S. DeKnight makes his directorial debut in a cast led by John Boyega. Costars include Scott Eastwood, Cailee Spaeny, Jing Tian, and Adria Arjona. Returning cast members from the first include Charlie Day, Rinko Kikuchim, and Burn Gorman. Idris Elba and Charlie Hunnam are not back.
Uprising arrives with a slightly smaller budget than part 1 – $150 million vs. $190 million. Expectations for the sequel are also smaller – at least in North America. Universal Pictures is likely looking to make the bulk of its cash overseas, particularly in the Asian markets. While Rim seems poised to debut at #1, I’m estimating a mid 20s gross and predicting it won’t reach the century club like its predecessor.
Pacific Rim Uprising opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
FistFight is not worth it. It’s not worth the involvement of a decent cast that’s provided laughs in other projects. It’s not even worthy of that bloopers reel that you just know is coming once its 91 minutes thankfully concludes. Even they’re not very funny.
This is a loose remake of 1987 cult comedy ThreeO’ClockHigh, a fun little exercise that’s earned its status as an under appreciated flick. The common thread is the long buildup to an eventual brawl in a high school. However, this time it’s the teachers and not the students. In one corner, we have wimpy English teacher Mr. Campbell (Charlie Day). In the other, we have intimidating history instructor Mr. Strickland (Ice Cube).
These two educators are in the last day of school when a dispute leads Cube to challenge Day to its title at 3pm once the bell rings. The circumstances leading to it are not particularly relevant, though they certainly call into question why Cube’s character should be anywhere near a classroom. That’s common here. Most of the characters from faculty to the kids are dumb and constantly doing dumb things. Jillian Bell, who stole scenes in 22JumpStreet, is that teacher we’ve all had who does meth and wants to hook up with the seniors. This is one example of several where the script goes for extreme vulgarity and non-PC humor. Nothing wrong with that, but it rarely lands with its crass chuckles attempts.
Cube scowls his way through. Day plays up the always nerve-wracked weakling. Somewhere in here is an attempted message about bravery and not backing down to powers that be. If only some of the talent here could have been brave enough to punch up this lackadaisical screenplay.
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