Tag: Cameron Diaz

Box Office Predictions: May 16-18

It’s the battle of AMC stars Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm as the summer season rolls along entering weekend #3 with monster flick Godzilla and Disney sports drama Million Dollar Arm entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/godzilla-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/million-dollar-arm-box-office-prediction/

Godzilla with Cranston should very easily dominate while a more interesting scenario could play out for the runner-up spot. Last weekend’s champ Neighbors had a bigger than expected opening (more on that below), however it received only a B Cinemascore grade which is lower than I would’ve thought. That means it could be in store for a larger sophomore drop-off than I might have earlier anticipated. This could set it up for a close showdown with Million Dollar Arm, starring Hamm.

As for the rest of the top five, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should experience another healthy fall in its third weekend while The Other Woman rounds out the group.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $77.3 million

2. Neighbors

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Million Dollar Arm

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 9-11)

The Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors scored a truly impressive debut with $49 million, well above my $37.3M projection. The well-reviewed frat pic scored the fifth highest R rated comedy opening of all time, after The Hangover Part II, Sex and the City, Ted, and Jackass 3-D.

Dropping to second was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, plummeting a healthy 61% with $35.5 million, below my $40.6M estimate. The Spidey sequel has not met expectations domestically and it’s on course to certainly be the lowest grossing pic in the franchise yet. Sony and Marvel might be in for a major brainstorming session in order for the planned third and fourth installments to reverse this troubling trend.

The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz was third with $9.6 million in weekend #3, holding up stronger than my $7.6M prediction. In fourth, Heaven Is for Real also performed better than my prediction with my $7.4 million (I said $5M). The fifth and sixth spots went to sequel holdovers that I didn’t include in my top six estimates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $5.7 million and Rio 2 made $5 million.

This means the other two newbies this weekend posted lackluster results. The faith based Moms’ Night Out was seventh with $4.3 million, slightly under my $5.1M projection. The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return tanked in eighth with $3.7 million, below my moderate $5.7M estimate.

That’s all for now. folks!

 

Box Office Predictions: May 2-4

This weekend the summer 2014 movie season officially gets underway and it’s mega-sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 leading the charge. You can read my detailed prediction post on its prospects here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/27/the-amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-prediction/

Week after week, we will see huge profile releases after another. As for weekend #1, Spidey should easily out gross the rest of the top five combined and then some. As for spring holdovers, I look for last weekend’s 1-4 (The Other Woman, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Heaven Is for Real, Rio 2) to all drop in the high 30s-mid 40s range.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $90.1 million

2. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

As for the final weekend of spring, The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz debuted very solidly with $24.7 million, outshining my $18.1M estimate. The rom com clearly hit with its female target audience.

Holdovers occupied slots 2-4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier took second with $16.2 in its fourth weekend, above my $14.3M prediction. Heaven Is for Real held up well in its second weekend for third with $14.3 million, topping my $13M projection. Rio 2 was fourth with $13.8 million, just below my $14.5M prediction.

The Paul Walker action pic Brick Mansions opened in fifth with a weak $9.5 million – not reaching my $12.3M estimate. And the horror flick The Quiet Ones absolutely tanked with only $3.8 million for a seventh place showing, well below my generous $9.4M guess.

That’s all for now! I’ll be back soon as we see just how well Spidey does!

The Other Woman Box Office Prediction

Cameron Diaz and romantic comedies are usually a formula that mix well together at the box office and this Friday, we’ll see if that pans out again with The Other Woman. In the past few years, Diaz has seen What Happens in Vegas debut to $20 million and Bad Teacher get off to a $31 million start. Both of those pics had higher profile summer release slots, while this one gets the late April slot which marks the last weekend before the onslaught of tent pole summer releases hit.

The Other Woman features costars Leslie Mann, Kate Upton, and rapper Nicki Minaj in a tale of women bonded together by one cheating hubby. I haven’t seen a whole lot of marketing for it – but to be fair – I probably don’t frequent the channels where this is being touted. Reviews should pretty much be a non-factor as it currently stands at 45% on Rotten Tomatoes – certainly not great, but not terrible either.

As I see it, The Other Woman is unlikely to reach the heights of the two previously mentioned Diaz movies, but I’ll say it gets just under $20M and that should be enough to make it #1 this weekend before Spider-Man swoops in and kicks off the blockbuster season.

The Other Woman opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million

For my Brick Mansions prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/brick-mansions-box-office-prediction/

For my The Quiet Ones prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-quiet-ones-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 25-27

The three-week domination of Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity is over and it is Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa becoming the only other #1 film in the month of October with an impressive debut. Grandpa earned $32 million in its debut, above my $28.3M prediction. This marks the second highest opening in the Jackass franchise and shows that the series hasn’t even come close to losing any steam.

Gravity fell to the #2 spot with $20.3 million in its fourth frame, slightly below my $21.2M prediction. It currently stands at $199 million and the possibility of reaching $300M domestic is still alive (especially when it starts earning Oscar nominations in the beginning of 2014).

In its third weekend, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks was third with $11.8 million, slightly higher than my $10.9M estimate. Phillips stands at $70M and should cross the century mark later on.

Ridley Scott’s The Counselor could not capitalize on its all-star cast that included Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Riding a wave of mostly negative reviews, The Counselor flopped with only $8 million for a fourth place showing, well below my $13.8M prediction. Moviegoers were simply ambivalent about the pic and I have no doubt that the weak reviews certainly didn’t help.

The Carrie remake received zero help from the Halloween time frame and tumbled 63% in its sophomore frame with only $5.9 million – below my $7.6M estimate. This actually put the horror flick in sixth place and allowed the animated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 to be #5 with $6.1M.

Outside of the top five, the acclaimed 12 Years a Slave was #8, grossing a robust $2.1 million on only 123 screens. The picture, which is looked at as an Oscar front runner, expands to more screens this Friday.

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have prediction posts up for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Ender’s Game, Last Vegas, and Free Birds.

Box Office Predictions: October 25-27

Unless it earns less than half of what Jackass 3D took in for an opening three years ago, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa with Johnny Knoxville should knock Gravity off its three week perch of being #1. The weekend’s other newbie is Ridley Scott’s The Counselor with an impressive cast and curiously, a so-so marketing campaign and no reviews at press time. You can read my prediction posts on both newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/the-counselor-box-office-prediction/

Gravity lost about 30% of its audience from week two to three and I’d expect roughly the same for this weekend. A low 30s drop seems likely for Captain Phillips in week three. And, finally, Carrie opened to a disappointing third place showing in its debut and could easily fall over 50% in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my prediction for this weekend’s top five:

1. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

2. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 29%)

3. The Counselor

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

The Counselor Box Office Prediction

It’s got some incredibly talented and well-respected people involved but will The Counselor break out of the pack and be a hit? Ridley Scott directs this crime drama that boasts an original screenplay from acclaimed novelist Cormac McCarthy. It stars Shame and X-Men First Class star Michael Fassbender and features an all-star supporting cast that includes Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem.

With that kind of pedigree, The Counselor could have a healthy opening above $20 million. However, I don’t think it’s going to happen. The marketing campaign has only been so-so and the TV spots really don’t make it clear what the film is about. Curiously, we’ve seen no mainstream reviews out five days before its debut so buzz (whether it turns out positive or negative) is nonexistent at this juncture. While Fassbender is certainly well-respected, he’s got no track record of opening a film. This could all spell out a muted opening for The Counselor.

While it’s certainly one of my most anticipated releases of the season, there’s been plenty of recent titles catering to an adult audience (Gravity, Captain Phillips, Prisoners). The possibility of The Counselor getting somewhat lost in the shuffle seems very real. I’m going with a debut in the mid-teens.

The Counselor opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

Oscar History: 2001

As far as film history, the year 2001 will most be remembered for the first installments of two billion dollar franchises, The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter. Other than that, not much will be remembered about the year. It was an exceptionally weak year for movies.

This was reflected in a relatively unimpressive group of Best Picture nominees. Ron Howard’s good but not great A Beautiful Mind would take top prize against Robert Altman’s Gosford Park, Todd Field’s In the Bedroom, and Baz Luhrmann’s Moulin Rouge. The other nominee: Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which began a three-year streak of the franchise’s entry being nominated.

I’ve always felt Fellowship was the best of the trilogy and I certainly would’ve had no problem with it winning over Mind. The Academy decided against some edgier material, such as David Lynch’s critically lauded Mulholland Drive and Chris Nolan’s twisty thriller Memento.

Ron Howard took Best Director over Altman and Jackson. Lynch would be nominated here for Mulholland, as well as Ridley Scott for Black Hawk Down. Field and Luhrmann were the two auteurs whose Picture was nominated left out. Certainly, I would’ve reserved a slot for Nolan for his work in Memento.

Denzel Washington would earn his first Best Actor prize for Training Day (he won Supporting Actor for Glory in 1989). Other nominees: previous year’s winner Russell Crowe for Mind, Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Will Smith as Ali, and Tom Wilkinson for In the Bedroom.

I would have considered Johnny Depp for his performance in Blow or Billy Bob Thornton in Monster’s Ball. Keeping with the Memento kick, how about Guy Pearce for his challenging lead role? And if you’ve read my previous Oscar History posts, you’ll notice I usually advocate for comedic performances, which the Academy typically ignores. So how about a shout-out to Ben Stiller for his hilarious turn as Derek Zoolander?

Oscar history would be made as Halle Berry became the first African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’s Ball. It would also be the first year where both the Actor and Actress prizes went to African-Americans. Other nominees: Judi Dench in Iris, Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge, Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom, and Renee Zellwegger for Bridget Jones Diary. Other performances worthy of consideration: Naomi Watts in Mulholland Drive and Audrey Tautou in Amelie.

Jim Broadbent was a surprise Supporting Actor winner for Iris, beating out favorites Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast and Ian McKellen in Lord of the Rings. Other nominees: Ethan Hawke for Training Day and Jon Voight in Ali.

Steve Buscemi in Ghost World and Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums were worthy nominees. And here’s a totally outside-the-box selection from me: Bruce Davison’s wonderful performance as Kirsten Dunst’s dad in the romantic drama Crazy/Beautiful, a greatly underrated film.

Jennifer Connelly would win Supporting Actress for A Beautiful Mind. Other nominees: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith (both for Gosford Park), Marisa Tomei for In the Bedroom, and Kate Winslet for Iris.

I probably would have found room for Cameron Diaz’s effective performance as Tom Cruise’s jilted lover in Vanilla Sky.

So, all in all, other than some historical Actor and Actress winners, 2001 was a pretty blah year for the Academy. A Beautiful Mind is a solid flick, but definitely one of the least memorable Best Picture winners of recent years, as I see it.