Tag: Brooklyn

We Live in Time Box Office Prediction

StudioCanal is counting on audiences making time for We Live in Time when it expands nationwide on October 18th. The romantic drama from Brooklyn director John Crowley stars Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh with a supporting cast including Adam James, Marama Corlett, and Aoime Hinds.

Critics were mostly on its side after its Toronto Film Festival premiere last month. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 79% with 61 on Metacritic. If this was based on source material like a bestselling novel, I might be more optimistic with Time. Awards buzz would also help and that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Unless a sizable female crowd turns up, mid single digits is the likely number.

We Live in Time opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million

For my Venom: The Last Dance prediction, click here:

Venom: The Last Dance Box Office Prediction

For my Conclave prediction, click here:

Conclave Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Blitz

Steve McQueen’s World War II drama Blitz opened the London Film Festival today and it’s one of the final major awards puzzle pieces to screen. Opening in limited fashion on November 1st before an Apple TV streaming rollout on November 22nd, the cast includes Saoirse Ronan, young newcomer Elliot Heffernan, Harris Dickinson, Benjamin Clementine, Kathy Burke, Paul Weller, Stephen Graham, Erin Kellyman, and Leigh Gill.

I’ve had Blitz placed in either the 1 or 2 slot in Best Picture in my predictions over the past several months. It’s easy to understand why. In 2013, McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave was a Best Picture winner. Before Blitz, there was only one feature film in between with 2018’s Widows. Despite solid reviews, Widows was not an Academy player. Yet the genre of Blitz seems ripe for consideration.

Following its festival bow, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 94% with 76 on Metacritic. That’s just fine, but it’s not that simple. A deeper dive into the critical reaction tells me that Blitz will no longer be placed in the 1 or 2 position for BP. In fact, it will likely drop from the top 5 of possibilities to somewhere between 6-10. In other words, I don’t see it as a threat to win.

As for the cast, not much has changed. Ronan will be campaigned for in Supporting Actress and she is probably the only performer that could (and I suspect will) make the cut. If so, she stands an excellent shot at being a double nominee coupled with her lead work in The Outrun. Such nods would mark her fifth and sixth tries at gold behind Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. As for Heffernan, he could be a shoo-in for a Best Young Performer nom at the Critics Choice Awards.

Original Screenplay is also possible, but I don’t think it’s automatic. Tech recognitions in Production Design (which seems especially plausible), Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound, and maybe Visual Effects are feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: We Live in Time

John Crowley’s Brooklyn nabbed three Oscar nods at the 88th Academy Awards for Picture, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), and Adapted Screenplay. His 2019 follow-up The Goldfinch was expected to be an across-the-board contender but underwhelmed with critics and audiences. So where do we stand with his latest We Live in Time?

The rom dramedy stars Andrew Garfield (a previous nominee for Hacksaw Ridge) and Florence Pugh (who was up for Little Women). It has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to an October 11th stateside output. Initial word-of-mouth puts it somewhere in between Crowley’s previous projects.

Reviews are complimentary of the two leads while also saying it doesn’t bring much new to the genre. The RT score is 77%. Prior to its screening, Time had gotten most of its attention from an odd looking carousel horse from a publicity still. I invite you to Google it if you have no clue what I speak of. As for the picture, I doubt it enters the Academy’s conversation as distributor A24 has larger competitors in the horserace. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Outrun

As a recovering alcoholic returning to her native Scottish Island roots, Saoirse Ronan looks to enter next year’s awards mix in The Outrun. From Nora Fingscheidt, best known for 2021’s The Unforgivable with Sandra Bullock, the StudioCanal production is based on the 2016 novel by Amy Liptrot (who scripts). Costars include Paapa Essiedu, Stephen Dillane, and Saskia Reeves.

With a smattering of reviews from its screening at Sundance, this is at 83% on RT. One thing seems clear. Ronan probably will be in the conversation for Actress. At just age 29, she’s already a four-time Academy nominee. Her first mention was in the supporting field at 13 for 2007’s Atonement. The trio of Actress noms were in a five ceremony period: 2015’s Brooklyn, 2017’s Lady Bird, and Little Women in 2019. She’s yet to take the trophy. In recent times, her projects (See How They Run, Foe) have failed to garner any awards buzz.

As long as this is still on the voters radar in a year, Ronan could be in contention for her fifth attempt. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Foe

There’s an impressive array of Oscar players involved with Foe, the sci-fi thriller that premiered at the New York Film Festival over the weekend. It’s out next weekend via Amazon Studios. Garth Davis directed the 2016 drama Lion, which scored six nominations including Best Picture. Saoirse Ronan is a four-time acting hopeful (supporting for Atonement and lead for Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women). Costar Paul Mescal made the Best Actor quintet last year for Aftersun.

Yet the Big Apple fest resulted in non-fruitful buzz for Foe. With 10 reviews up, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 10% (yes, that’s one fresh). Despite the pedigree, do not expect this to find any friends in the voting branch of the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2015: The Final Five

We have reached 2015 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-14, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

Best Picture 2014: The Final Five

There is one certainty when it comes to 2015 and that’s Spotlight earning a spot in the final five. After all, it won the big prize. It was also the rare BP recipient that emerged victorious in only one other category (Original Screenplay).

For 2015, eight movies were nominated. Time to put a spotlight on which ones get in and which ones are left on the cutting room floor:

The Big Short

Adam McKay’s satirical take on the 2008 financial crisis is the first of 3 Best Picture nominees in a row for the filmmaker. It earned a total of five nods with a win for its Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. With nods for the director, the win for the script, and an editing nom – a quintet inclusion is highly likely.

Bridge of Spies

Steven Spielberg’s Cold War set drama starred Tom Hanks and his costar Mark Rylance won a surprise Supporting Actor trophy over the favored Sylvester Stallone for Creed. There were six nominations total.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Despite the considerable pedigree, the misses in directing and editing are significant.

Brooklyn

John Crowley’s 50s set period drama was the first of three eventual Best Actress mentions for Saoirse Ronan. With an Adapted Screenplay nod, its own. three tries at gold are the least among the 8 BP hopefuls.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No – primarily for the last sentence above. Brooklyn probably just snuck in the top 8.

Mad Max: Fury Road

George Miller’s long in development fourth entry in his wild action franchise received 10 nominations and took home 6 (all technical in nature). That’s easily the most victories of the evening.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. With Miller in Director and a Film Editing win, I don’t see how it would have missed.

The Martian

Ridley Scott’s outer space tale with Matt Damon garnered 7 mentions but came up empty-handed on the night.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I’d rank it sixth. I couldn’t make the call, however, since Scott was omitted in Director and it failed to make the Editing group.

The Revenant

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu made it two directing wins in a row after Birdman for his survival pic. Leonardo DiCaprio, after several close but no cigar tries, was finally crowned Best Actor. Overall, this was the most nominated film at 12 with 3 wins.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and I suspect it was the runner-up to Spotlight.

Room

Brie Larson was the Best Actress for the abduction drama where Lenny Abrahamson was also an unexpected directing contender. With an Adapted Screenplay nom, it managed 4 mentions.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes though I’d put in fifth and in a close race with The Martian. Abrahamson getting in made the difference.

And that means my five BP contenders match the Best Director contestants. That’s a rare thing before the race expanded in 2009. Yet it seems appropriate for this particular year.

The whittled down five would be:

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

I’ll cover 2016 in short order!

Oscar Watch: Ammonite

When Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan are romancing one another in a 19th century set costume drama, you better believe there’s going to be Oscar speculation. This is for good reason. Between the two performers, they’ve collected a staggering 11 Academy nods. There’s just one victory among them.

Francis Lee’s Ammonite has premiered this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. As mentioned, it casts Winslet as a paleontologist who strikes the fancy of Ronan’s wealthy wife. It is Lee’s follow-up to his hailed 2017 pic God’s Own Country.

Critical reception from up north does include some rave reviews. There are others that are decidedly more mixed and even negative. The Rotten Tomatoes score of 64% puts a Best Picture and Directing and Original Screenplay nomination into serious question. Right now, I would say it’s certainly iffy.

Tech nods like Costume Design, Score, and Production Design are feasible. Yet the main chatter centers on the leads. The likelihood is that Winslet will contend in lead Actress with Ronan in supporting. Winslet would be scoring her eighth nomination in 25 years. Her lone win was for 2008’s The Reader. Based on buzz, she appears poised to grab it. That said, let’s keep an eye on how competition plays out in the coming weeks. Frances McDormand (Nomadland) seems like a shoo-in for inclusion. There’s other potential heavy hitters in the wings, including Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Michele Pfeiffer (French Exit), and Jennifer Hudson (Respect) to name just three.

Ronan has achieved 4 nominations since 2007 for Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. She’s yet to walk to the podium. There’s a general feeling that her time is coming and I have had her ranked #1 in Supporting Actress since I began my weekly prediction posts last month. Now I’m wondering whether she even makes the final five. It is still a strong possibility, but I highly doubt you’ll see her atop the estimates this coming Thursday. I would say right now that 2020’s Supporting Actress winner probably hasn’t her movie screened yet.

Bottom line: the reception for Ammonite in Toronto raises more questions than it answers about its chances. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscars 2019: The Case of Saoirse Ronan

My Case of posts for Oscar contenders arrives at our third contestant for Best Actress… Saoirse Ronan in Greta Gerwig’s Little Women. Let’s get into it!

The Case for Saoirse Ronan

Her work as Jo in the latest iteration of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel drew raves and robust box office. At age 25, Ronan has racked up an incredible 4 nominations: 2007’s Atonement, 2015’s Brooklyn, 2017’s Lady Bird, and now this. She’s yet to win and voters might feel it’s time.

The Case Against Saoirse Ronan 

Despite a couple of critics groups awards, Ronan has come up empty-handed in major precursors. Those losses have almost exclusively come at the hands of Renee Zellweger in Judy, who is rightly seen as the front runner. Ronan’s inclusion here was seen as a question mark all the way up to nomination morning.

The Verdict

The very high likelihood is that Ronan goes 0 for 4 come Oscar evening.

Up next in my Case of posts… Al Pacino in The Irishman!

Oscar Watch: The Goldfinch

John Crowley’s The Goldfinch looks like a picture made for Oscar consideration. It’s a prestige drama based on a well known novel (from Donna Tartt). This is the follow up to the filmmaker’s Brooklyn, which did receive a nod in the biggest race four years ago. Nicole Kidman is in it, as is Ansel Elgort in his first headlining role since Baby Driver.

Yet I found it curious that Warner Bros didn’t screen it last weekend in Venice or Telluride. After all, its Toronto screening today is a mere five days ahead of its stateside release. That’s not much time to build awards buzz.

Now we know why. The Goldfinch is being savaged by some critics and the Rotten Tomatoes score is at 22%. So while numerous movies have increased their visibility on the voter circuit in the last few days, this would be a casualty. If anything, perhaps Roger Deakins (who at last won a gold statue two years ago for Blade Runner 2049) could see his cinematography noticed. That would be the extent of it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Goldfinch Box Office Prediction

Based on a 2013 novel by Donna Tartt that elicited mixed reaction, The Goldfinch arrives in theaters next weekend. The drama is director John Crowley’s follow up to his Oscar nominated 2015 effort Brooklyn. Ansel Elgort headlines with a supporting cast that includes Oakes Fegley, Aneurin Barnard, Finn Wolfhard (currently also costarring in It Chapter Two), Sarah Paulson, Luke Wilson, Jeffrey Wright, and Nicole Kidman.

The film will have its premiere this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. Interestingly, it skipped both Telluride and Venice. Those earlier screenings could have provided the opportunity for any awards chatter and I’m curious to see if Warner Bros knew that might not materialize.

For those unfamiliar with the source material, I’ve found the trailers to be a bit too mysterious and a tad lackluster. We’ll see if reviews this weekend could possibly change the dynamic, but I currently see The Goldfinch struggling to reach double digits. That unimpressive result would put it in third place behind the aforementioned It sequel and Hustlers.

The Goldfinch opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Hustlers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/04/hustlers-box-office-prediction/