Arriving one year after its COVID delay, Halloween Kills stalks theaters October 15th. The 12th film in the nearly 45-year-old franchise, it’s a direct sequel to 2018’s Halloween, which served as a follow-up to 1978’s original (therefore ignoring everything that came in between). Got all that? David Gordon Green returns to direct. So do Jamie Lee Curtis, Judy Greer, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and, of course, Nick Castle as Michael Myers. Anthony Michael Hall, Thomas Mann, and Kyle Richards are newcomers.
Three Octobers ago, Halloween blew away expectations with a $76 million opening gross and $159 million overall domestically. The debut weekend alone made it the highest earning feature in the series.
Universal Pictures recently made the surprising choice to simultaneously release this in cinemas and on the Peacock streaming service. I’m not so sure how much that hurts its chances in multiplexes (Peacock still isn’t on the level of its better known competitors). However, it doesn’t help.
Reviews for Kills aren’t as laudatory as part 1… err part 2 (or part 11… I suppose). The 2018 effort nabbed 79% on Rotten Tomatoes while this sits at 57%. Critical reaction shouldn’t determine its fate either. I do think the buzz surrounding Curtis’s return has dissipated. This should contribute to a lower premiere and I suspect low to mid 40s is where this ends up.
Halloween Kills opening weekend prediction: $41.2 million
Blogger’s Note (10/06): I have revised my No Time to Die prediction from $104.1 million down to $94.1 million, which would still set a COVID era record.
After the absolutely fantastic and record breaking performance of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, James Bond looks to set his own high mark this weekend with the 25th 007 adventure No Time to Die. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Daniel Craig’s fifth and final contribution to the storied franchise has been climbing up with my estimates. Early last week, I figured it would do $72.1 million (good for second in the series after the $88 million achieved by Skyfall). By Friday, I went with $84.1 million. Following what Tom Hardy’s superhero sequel did, I am now figuring this will be the first Bond feature to debut north of $100 million.
There are potential obstacles. It certainly has a longer runtime than Venom. We would be in new territory for this franchise with a gross that enormous. That said, no one foresaw the Venom follow-up hitting $10 million more than its predecessor. I also believe the hoopla surrounding Die being Craig’s swan song (and the solid reviews) will only help.
The original Venom fell 56% in its sophomore in October 2018 to $35 million. Competition this time around is steeper and I do believe a 60% or more dip is certainly possible (thought it could continue to confound expectations).
After a decent debut, The Addams Family 2 will be third and I’d look for a drop in the mid 40s range (similar to its predecessor from 2019). Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings should hold the 4 spot with The Many Saints of Newark (after a subpar showing) in the 5 position.
Here’s how I envision the chart playing out:
1. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $94.1 million
2. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. The Many Saints of Newark
Predicted Gross: $1.8 million
Box Office Results (October 1-3)
I’m pretty sure the number $58.7 million is going to haunt me for awhile. That’s what I said Venom: Let There Be Carnage would gross out of the gate and, umm, I was a little low. As mentioned, the Tom Hardy sequel set a pandemic era best haul with a cool $90 million (topping the $80 million of part 1 and the COVID times best $80 million achieved by Black Widow). I think it’s safe to say get ready for part III as champagne corks are popping over at Sony.
The Addams Family 2 couldn’t come close to the $30 million start of part 1, but it wasn’t expected to. The $17.3 million output is right in line with the best of expectations and slightly ahead of my $16.6 million projection.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was third with $6.1 million (I was higher at $7.6 million) for $206 million total. It’s the first pic to reach the double century milestone domestically since COVID.
Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark was a theatrical dud at just $4.6 million for fourth. I went considerably north of that with a $8.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as HBO hopes its Max subscribers stream it on their service.
Dear Evan Hansen tumbled badly in weekend 2 with $2.4 million. Again I was generous with $4.2 million. That’s a troubling 67% decline after a weak opening and the tally is $11 million.
***Blogger’s Note Part III (10/06): I have revised my No Time to Die prediction from $104.1 million down to $94.1 million, which would still set a COVID era record.
***Blogger’s Note Part II (10/03): With the news that Venom: Let There Be Carnage has grossed approximately $90 million out of the gate, it’s go big or go home for No Time to Die! I’m re-upping my estimate from $84.1 million to a COVID era best $104.1 million***
**Blogger’s Note (10/01): A week before its stateside premiere, I have decided to significantly increase my prediction (partly due to the apparent over performance of Venom: Let There Be Carnage). I’m going from $72.1 million to $84.1 million**
Ladies and gentlemen, the second frame of October finally marks the weekend for Daniel Craig’s swan song as 007 in No Time to Die. The 25th official entry in the James Bond franchise was gearing up for release in April of 2020 (Billie Eilish’s title track had already dropped) when COVID scuttled the plans. It experienced several more delays before at last settling on October 8. Craig is back for his fifth and final appearance along with series returnees Lea Seydoux, Ralph Fiennes, Naomie Harris, Ben Whishaw, Jeffrey Wright, Rory Kinnear, and Christoph Waltz. On the job for the first time are Rami Malek as the main villain, Lashana Lynch, Craig’s Knives Out costar Ana de Armas, and Billy Magnussen.
Anticipation is certainly present with the culmination of Mr. Craig’s service as the British super spy – one rivaled by only Sean Connery. He’s actually had the longest run as the character in terms of time, though not actual volume of pictures. It seems like eons since moviegoers have had their Bond fix. With the frequent pushbacks, the just shy of a six-year wait is the second lengthiest break between 007 adventures (beaten by the sabbatical of 1989’s Licence to Kill and 1995’s Goldeneye at nearly six and a half years).
Fifteen years ago, Craig defied expectations with the critically acclaimed Casino Royale. It made $40 million for its start but legged out very impressively. Sequel (and it was the first true Bond sequel) Quantum of Solace debuted two years later with $67 million. 2012’s Skyfall marked a high point at the box office as it grossed over a billion dollars worldwide. The premiere stateside is a series best $88 million. Three years later, Spectre kicked off with $70 million.
So where will this golden era of 007 culminate in terms of opening weekend? There’s certainly a range of possibilities. First things first: it will have no trouble eclipsing what Craig’s first foray achieved a decade and a half ago. I do believe the COVID times will prevent the record setting starting number of Skyfall managed (but you never know). It’s hard to totally factor in the excitement for its star’s last go-round. A video of Craig bidding adieu to his costars and crew has been widely circulated on social media in recent weeks.
My hunch is that a premiere in the range of Quantum and Spectre is most likely stateside (I’m sure its overseas haul will be massive). I’m tempted to say a low to mid 60s gross just under them could occur. However, I’ll err on the side of over performance and project low to mid 70s. (PER ABOVE: I have increased estimate from $72.1M to $84.1M to $104.1 million)
No Time to Die opening weekend prediction: $94.1 million
An October filled with potential heavy hitters begins Friday with the release of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Tom Hardy’s sequel to the 2018 comic book blockbuster. We also have spooky animated sequel The Addams Family 2 and Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
One thing seems certain: the September long reign of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will cease with the arrival of Venom. I don’t envision it approaching the $80 million premiere achieved by its predecessor, but a high 50s forecast has it ruling the roost.
The two other newbies are also both available for home viewing (Addams for general rental, Newark on HBO Max). Addams should have no trouble snapping into the 2 spot. I’m projecting it earns a little more than half of the original’s $30 million.
Newark is a bit of a head scratcher. It stands to reason that many Sopranos devotees may have a Max membership and simply choose to view from their couch. I’ll say it gets close enough to double digits to just outdo Shang-Chi in its fifth frame (though it could be close).
After a muted debut, Dear Evan Hansen should drop in the low to mid 40s for a fifth place showing.
Here’s how I see the top 5:
1. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $58.7 million
2. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. The Many Saints of Newark
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Dear Evan Hansen
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (September 24-26)
As anticipated, Shang-Chi made it a September clean sweep as it remained #1 for the fourth weekend and became the highest grossing domestic earner of the COVID era. With $13 million (I overshot at $14.9 million), the impressive take is $196 million.
The musical drama Dear Evan Hansen couldn’t get most critics or crowds on its side. It underperformed with $7.4 million, falling shy of my $8.6 million prediction. Its A- Cinemascore rating could mean small declines ahead, but fans of the Broadway show may have already rushed to view it (just not as many as the studio hoped).
Free Guy was third with $4.1 million compared to my $4.5 million projection and it’s up to $114 million.
Candyman placed fourth with $2.5 million. My guess? $2.5 million! Total is $56 million.
Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with just $2 million (I said $2.8 million) for $8 million overall.
Making its way to theaters and HBO Max on October 1 is The Many Saints of Newark, which follows the teen years of Tony Soprano in the 1960s and 70s. Series vet Alan Taylor directs with show creator David Chase cowriting. In a bit of bittersweet casting, the late James Gandolfini’s son Michael is Tony. The cast also features Alessandro Nivola, Leslie Odom, Jr., Jon Bernthal, Corey Stoll, Billy Magnussen, John Magaro, Ray Liotta, and Vera Farmiga.
The crime drama arrives 14 years after the celebrated HBO program faded to black. Early reviews are decent as it stands at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. Devotees of the series will no doubt be curious. However, the big question for me is whether many of them will wake up on the morning of the 1st and realize they’ve got themself the opportunity to view it on HBO Max.
I suspect many will. It stands to reason that plenty of Sopranos fans may have a subscription to the streamer. This could limit its potential at multiplexes. My gut says the number on Max could be impressive, but Newark could struggle to reach double digits in its theatrical premiere.
The Many Saints of Newark opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
For my Venom: Let There Be Carnage prediction, click here:
One of America’s best known spooky families returns in animated form on October 1 with The Addams Family 2. The sequel to the 2019 hit brings back the vocal stylings of Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloe Grace Moretz, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Bette Midler, Bill Hader, and Wallace Shawn. Javon Walton replaces Finn Wolfhard as Pugsley. Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan direct once again.
Two Octobers ago, the original started with a better than expected $30 million and wound up at $100 million. It came in second behind Joker. The follow-up will undoubtedly also be in runner-up status to another comic book character with Venom: Let There Be Carnage (which opens against it). In fact, with Venom being PG-13, it could siphon away some younger viewers.
The other challenge is that Universal made the curious decision to make part 2 available for home rental on the same day. This was a bit of a surprise considering family entertainment has fared relatively well given the COVID circumstances.
Due to those factors, my snap judgment is that The Addams Family 2 may earn just over half of what the first nabbed out of the gate.
The Addams Family 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
For my Venom: Let There Be Carnage prediction, click here:
Arriving one year after its COVID delay, Tom Hardy returns as the Marvel Comics title character in Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The sequel includes returnees Michelle Williams and Reid Scott along with newcomers Naomie Harris, Stephen Graham, and Woody Harrelson (who did briefly cameo in the original’s post credits scene). Andy Serkis, certainly no stranger to CG effects, takes over directorial duties from Ruben Fleischer.
Three years ago, Venom surpassed expectations with a then October best opening weekend of just over $80 million. That record was beaten a year later by Joker. The overall domestic gross of $213 million guaranteed a follow-up.
After witnessing the recent robust performance of Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Sony actually pushed up the release date by two weeks.
Carnage kicks off a month where studios are hopeful for pleasing returns with heavy hitters like No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Dune. I don’t envision this getting to $80 million like its predecessor. A more realistic expectation would be part II nabbing about 75% of what part I achieved out of the gate.
That would be $60 million and I’ll say it goes just under that.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage opening weekend prediction: $58.7 million
For my The Addams Family 2 prediction, click here:
Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings looks to make it a clean sweep at #1 for the month of September this weekend. The only competitor standing in its way is Dear Evan Hansen, the adaptation of the hit Broadway musical. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The fact that Hansen is garnering mixed reviews has me questioning whether it reaches double digits. I’m guessing no and that should put it in the runner-up position behind Rings, which may only drop in the low 30s.
Holdovers will populate the rest of the five as we await some potential October behemoths starting with Venom: Let There Be Carnage and continuing with No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Dune.
Until then, expect a rather quiet end to this month at multiplexes. Here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
2. Dear Evan Hansen
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
3. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
4. Cry Macho
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
5. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (September 17-19)
Shang-Chi steamrolled the rest of the weak competition in its third frame with $21.6 million. That’s just above my $20.1 million projection as the MCU juggernaut has amassed $176 million thus far with $200 million easily in its sights.
Free Guy dipped a scant 9% for second place in its sixth weekend with $5 million (I said $4.2 million). It has crossed the nine digit mark at $108 million.
The weekend’s top newcomer was Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho with a ho-hum $4.4 million compared to my more generous $6.4 million estimate. Perhaps its intended older demographic opted to view it on HBO Max or, with its mixed reviews, not at all.
Candyman was fourth with $3.5 million, holding up better than my $2.6 million take. Total is $53 million.
Keeping with the horror theme, Malignant dropped 50% in its sophomore weekend with $2.7 million. That’s decent for its genre and it’s generated plenty of chatter (good and bad) that might have assisted in a curiosity factor. In two weeks, it’s made $9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because Gerard Butler’s latest action thriller Copshop (despite a decent critical response) tanked with only $2.3 million in sixth. I went with $4.5 million.
The film adaptation of the Tony Award winning musical drama Dear Evan Hansen hits theaters September 24. Directed by Stephen Chbosky (who made the 2012’s acclaimed indie The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s blockbuster Wonder), Hansen recasts Ben Platt in the title role. The supporting cast features Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, Kaitlyn Dever, and Amandla Stenberg.
Premiering at the Toronto Film Festival, the cinematic version has not garnered the same kudos that it did on Broadway. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 47% and many are griping about Platt (now in his late 20s) portraying a high schooler.
I might be a little more optimistic if Hansen had Oscar vibes going for it, but that’s been silenced by the critics. That said, there is a built-in audience familiar with the play and that could help. The same could have been said for this summer’s In the Heights, which majorly underperformed.
My projection is that this doesn’t quite reach double digits.
Dear Evan Hansen opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
**Blogger’s Note (09/16): I am revising my prediction for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. It appears to be in more of a limited release than I anticipated so my estimate goes from $3.4 million to $1.7M. That puts it outside of the top five and allows Candyman the five spot.
A trio of newcomers are out Friday, but none stand much of a chance at dethroning Marvel’s sizzling Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. We have Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho, Gerard Butler’s action thriller Copshop, and the Jessica Chastain led biopic The Eyes of Tammy Faye. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I’m not projecting any of the newbies will hit double digits, but I’ll say Eastwood’s latest comes closest. I’m hedging a bit since Macho will stream on HBO Max. However, it should make enough to overshadow Copshop (though Butler has over performed in the past).
The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a tricky one since there’s no screen count available at press time. The pic is garnering Oscar buzz for Chastain. My estimate could fluctuate. For now, I have it in a battle with Free Guy for the four spot.
As mentioned, Shang-Chi should have no issue making it three weeks on top. A low 40s drop might put it just over $20 million.
And with that, my take on the top 5:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $20.1 million
2. Cry Macho
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
3. Copshop
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
4. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
5. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (September 10-12)
It was a glorious weekend for Shang-Chi as it achieved the best sophomore frame of any feature during COVID. The MCU blockbuster took in $34.7 million, a tad below my $36.4 million prediction. The ten-day is up to an impressive $144 million. While Rings fell short of Black Widow‘s pandemic era best start, it held up considerably better for the follow-up.
Free Guy was second with $5.5 million as it crossed the century mark at $101 million. My projection? $5.5 million!
Despite plenty of internet chatter over the weekend due to its wild twists, James Wan’s horror flick Malignant stalled with audiences (though many may view it on HBO Max). It was third at $5.4 million, falling under my $7.6 million take.
Candyman held the four spot at $4.7 million (I said $5.1 million) as its made $47 million.
Jungle Cruise rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I was right there at $2.4 million) and it sails in with $109 million overall.
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