Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: Weekend of November 19-21

**Blogger’s Note (11/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my King Richard estimate down from $11.2M to $9.2M

Ghostbusters: Afterlife looks to spook up a healthy #1 debut and Will Smith’s Oscar hopeful King Richard debuts in theaters and HBO Max. They’re the newbies out on the pre Thanksgiving frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Box Office Prediction

King Richard Box Office Prediction

I’m on the lower end of estimates with Afterlife (high 30s) as I’m unsure how much anticipation is truly built up for the newest iteration of the franchise (just five years after a reboot failed to meet expectations). It’ll certainly open atop the charts and hope for a leggy run with the holidays almost underway.

King Richard could open anywhere from 2nd to 4th. The HBO Max simultaneous premiere will siphon away some viewers, but I’m actually on the higher end of the range here and think it could surpass double digits (placing it third behind the third frame of Eternals).

Clifford the Big Red Dog had a much better than anticipated start and its sophomore decline could be around 35-40% as it should experience a much smaller drop over Turkey Day. Dune should take the five spot.

Here’s how I see it going down:

1. Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

2. Eternals

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

3. Clifford the Big Red Dog

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. King Richard

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. Dune

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (November 12-14)

The sophomore fall for Eternals wasn’t quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. The MCU title, which has drawn mixed audience and critical notices, dropped 62% (not abnormal for its franchise) to $26.8 million. That’s ahead of my $23.2 million estimate. The ten-day gross is $118 million.

Clifford the Big Red Dog had a terrific start in second with $16.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $22.2 million since its Wednesday premiere – dwarfing my respective takes of $11.8 million and $17.6 million. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for Dog to leg out commendably with the holiday season nearly upon us.

Dune was third with $5.5 million compared to my $4.9 million prediction and it stands at $93 million.

No Time to Die took the four spot at $4.5 million (I said $4.3 million) to bring it to $150 million.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage rounded out the top five with $3.9 million, a bit ahead of my $3.4 million projection. The sequel hit a milestone as it’s up to $202 million.

Finally, Oscar hopeful Belfast (out on 580 screens) debuted in seventh with $1.7 million. I was a bit more generous with $2.3 million. Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama will look to stick around with awards season approaching.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

King Richard Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Note (11/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my King Richard estimate down from $11.2M to $9.2M

Will Smith may be primed for his first Oscar win in King Richard, which is served up for audiences on November 19th in theaters and HBO Max. The sports drama casts its lead as Richard Williams, father of tennis superstars Venus and Serena. Reinaldo Marcus Green directs with a supporting cast featuring Aunjanue Ellis, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Tony Goldwyn, and Jon Bernthal.

Following its September premiere at Telluride, awards buzz started immediately and it currently sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a new autobiography out this week, Smith has been highly visible as Richard is set for release.

Adult themed dramas have struggled mightily during the COVID era and the pic’s availability on HBO’s streamer could certainly eat into the grosses. However, with the Oscar chatter going, I do think this could top the $10 million estimate that’s out there (though probably not by much). It should also manage to play well over subsequent weekends.

King Richard opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million

For my Ghostbusters: Afterlife prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Box Office Prediction

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Box Office Prediction

It’s in with the old and in with the new as Ghostbusters: Afterlife debuts in theaters November 19th. This was originally scheduled to haunt multiplexes in the summer of 2020 before numerous COVID delays. Jason Reitman directs and there’s some family legacy involved as dad Ivan made parts I and II in 1984 and 1989. Newcomers to the series include Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Tracy Letts, and Paul Rudd (not to mention Stay Puft Marshmallow Minis according to the trailer). Returnees from the 80s are Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and Sigourney Weaver.

If rebooting this franchise sounds familiar – that’s because it happened five years ago to middling results. The Paul Feig helmed remake led by Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig took in $46 million on its opening weekend but fizzled quickly due to so-so reviews and audience reaction. It also featured the OG Busters making cameos. This new iteration serves as a direct sequel to the first two.

Some estimates have Afterlife beginning at $50 million or above. That’s certainly doable, but I’m not so sure. While it’s obviously a well-known property and the ’84 original is rightly considered a classic, both follow-ups have been letdowns. The 71% Rotten Tomatoes score is OK, but its actually below the 74% that greeted the ballyhooed 2016 pic.

I’m projecting that this makes it to $35-$40 million and doesn’t get to the number we saw just a half decade back.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million

For my King Richard prediction, click here:

King Richard Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: Weekend of November 12-14

The eyes of box office prognosticators will be focused on the second frame for Marvel’s Eternals. It should have no trouble repeating in the top spot, but its drop could be significant following mixed audience and critical reactions. We do have some newcomers: Clifford the Big Red Dog and potential Oscar favorite Belfast from Kenneth Branagh (debuting on roughly 600 screens). You can find peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Clifford the Big Red Dog Box Office Prediction

Belfast Box Office Prediction

Clifford is getting a jump on the weekend by opening Wednesday (with early previews Tuesday). That could be a shrewd move considering kiddos are off on Thursday for Veterans Day. It should firmly plant itself in the #2 spot after Eternals. 

As for Belfast, the awards chatter should help it achieve a decent per theater average. It will look to play steadily for weeks over the Oscar season. My $2.3 million estimate leaves it outside the top five.

Back to Eternals. The B Cinemascore grade is rather troubling for its sophomore outing (most MCU titles get an A). With audiences clearly not digging it in the way they typically greet the studio’s material, a drop in the low to even high 60s seems where this is headed.

Holdovers Dune, No Time to Die, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage should fill the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it going down:

1. Eternals

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. Clifford the Big Red Dog

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Dune

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. No Time to Die

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (November 5-7)

The shaky WOM for Eternals undoubtedly impacted its earnings as the Chloe Zhao effort took in $71.2 million, under my $77.8 million projection. That would be a fantastic debut for almost anything not MCU related. However, Eternals premiere is the smallest for Marvel since 2015’s Ant-Man. As mentioned, it could be headed for a precipitous drop in weekend #2.

Dune slipped to second after two weeks on top with $7.7 million (I said $7.2 million). The sci-fi epic has amassed $84 million in three weeks.

No Time to Die held up very well for third in its fifth go-round at $6 million – higher than my $4.8 million take. Total is $143 million.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage hit the four spot at $4.4 million compared to my $3.8 million projection. It’s nearing the double century mark with $197 million.

Ron’s Gone Wrong, which I was wrong about staying in the top five, was fifth at $3.5 million for a two-week total of $17 million.

The French Dispatch from Wes Anderson expanded its screen count and made $2.5 million for sixth place with $8 million overall.

Halloween Kills fell hard with its namesake holiday having passed. The $2.3 million gross for seventh (I was more generous at $3 million) brought the earnings to $84 million.

Finally, the Princess Diana biopic Spencer with Kristen Stewart couldn’t reach my prognosis. Starting out in nearly 1000 venues, the $2.1 million haul was just over half of my $4.1 million prediction. It will hope that Oscar buzz for its lead will contribute to small declines in coming days.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Belfast Box Office Prediction

Kenneth Branagh has had a varied directorial output over the last three decades plus from his Shakespearian works (Henry V, Much Ado About Nothing, Hamlet) to franchise entries (Thor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit) to adaptations of beloved novels like Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein and Murder on the Orient Express. His latest is Belfast and the coming-of-age tale (which Branagh also wrote) is said to be his most personal pic as it focuses on a young boy growing up in Northern Island during the 1960s. The black and white drama is also a serious Oscar contender and it’s currently the frontrunner for Best Picture. Newcomer Jude Hill stars with a supporting cast (who could all be Academy nominated) featuring Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciaran Hinds.

The Academy hopeful hits 600 screens on November 12th with plans for a lengthy play over the awards season. The Oscar buzz should get it off to a solid start on the relatively low number of screens. Assuming a per screen average in the $4000-4500 range, we could be talking $2-3 million as it’s likely to perform steadily over the next several weeks.

Belfast opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Clifford the Big Red Dog prediction (which is not the Best Picture frontrunner), click here:

Clifford the Big Red Dog Box Office Prediction

Clifford the Big Red Dog Box Office Prediction

Arriving in theaters on Wednesday, November 10th, Clifford the Big Red Dog hopes to take a bite out of the family box office. Based on the 1963 bestseller by Norman Bridwell, Walt Becker directs. He’s no stranger to pictures about creatures or with animals in the title (Wild Hogs, Old Dogs, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip). Actors on screen or voicing our furry friends include David Alan Grier (providing Clifford’s words), Darby Camp, Jack Whitehall, John Cleese, Russell Wong, Paul Rodriguez, Tony Hale, Russell Peters, Sienna Guillory, Kenan Thompson, and Rosie Perez.

Originally slated for November 2020 before its COVID delay, this giant good boy will premiere simultaneously in multiplexes and Paramount+. That could cause some parents and kids to view at home (though this streamer doesn’t yet have the reach of others). I do question how much clamoring there is for a Clifford pic in general and I don’t foresee a big red-hot start.

With the midweek debut, I look for this to hover around low double digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with low to mid teens for the five-day rollout.

Clifford the Big Red Dog opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Belfast prediction, click here:

Belfast Box Office Prediction

Spencer Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/03): I’ve seen some unconfirmed data indicating Spencer will open on just under 1000 screens. If that holds true, I’m revising my estimate from $4.6M to $4.1M.

Kristen Stewart appears destined to make plenty of red carpet trips next year with her performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Directed by Pablo Larrain (who last tackled American royalty with Natalie Portman as Jackie), the pic looks to be an awards contender for its star and in several other categories. Costars include Jack Farthing (as Prince Charles), Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall, and Sean Harris.

So how will it perform at the box office? That’s a tricky one and some simply for practical reasons. Spencer is hitting screens this Friday, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. When that’s available (hopefully Thursday), don’t be surprised if my current estimate is altered.

Practicalities aside, Oscar bait entries such as this often play out over the course of the season. In other words, don’t expect hefty grosses right away. That said, the buzz already being generated with Stewart as the Best Actress frontrunner and the fascination with the life and death of Diana should contribute to a decent per theater average. We just don’t know how many venues that is at the moment.

For those reasons, I’ll peg this in the $4-6 million range for its start (this is assuming a 1500 screen count which is a number I’ve heard rumored). That should nab it anywhere from the 3-6 position on the chart. Checking back on Thursday is probably wise.

Spencer opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million

For my Eternals prediction, click here:

Eternals Box Office Prediction

November 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (11/03): I’ve seen some unconfirmed data indicating Spencer will open on just under 1000 screens. If that holds true, I’m revising my estimate from $4.6M to $4.1M.

Blogger’s Update (11/02): Even though I don’t have a theater count at press time, I am factoring in the opening of Spencer to my estimates. My detailed prediction for it is here:

Spencer Box Office Prediction

My $4.6M projection puts it in the top five so it’s now a top 6 for the weekend ahead!

The third of four 2021 Marvel Cinematic Universe titles hits this weekend (thanks to some COVID delays) with Chloe Zhao’s Eternals. It’s eagerly awaited, but it also faces some unusual challenges for the MCU. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Eternals Box Office Prediction

The buzz for Eternals is mixed in a way that its studio isn’t accustomed to. Sitting at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, the pic has the lowest RT score of the 26 MCU entries dating back to 2008. That has caused me to revise my estimate down just a touch, but I still believe mid to high 70s is the probable haul.

Unsurprisingly, Eternals is the only wide release as November dawns. Dune, after two weeks on top, may lose around 50-55% of its audience for second place with No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage providing a sequel heavy presence in the rest of the top five.

My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, after being the top newcomer this past weekend, should drop precipitously around 70% (like its predecessor) and fall outside the high five flicks.

With that, here’s how I see it looking:

1. Eternals

Predicted Gross: $77.8 million

2. Dune

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

3. No Time to Die

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Spencer

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

6. Halloween Kills

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (October 29-31)

I supersized my normal estimates with a top ten due to the prevalence of newbies over the Halloween frame. All but one, as I predicted, fell outside the top five.

As anticipated, Dune reigned supreme in its sophomore outing. However, it fell more than I figured. The $15.4 million take didn’t match my $18.5 million and the two-week tally is $69 million.

Other holdovers held a bit sturdier than I thought they would. Halloween Kills was second with $8.7 million compared to my $6.1 million projection and it’s up to $85 million with the century mark in view.

No Time to Die was third with $7.7 million (I said $6.3 million) and Mr. Bond has reached $133 million.

My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission was the best performing newbie at $6.4 million, on pace with my $6.1 million prediction.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage rounded out the top five with $5.7 million, on pace with my forecast of $5.6 million. Total is $190 million as it approaches double century territory.

Antlers debuted in sixth with a mediocre $4.2 million. It did surpass my take of $3.2 million.

Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho started out in seventh with just $4.1 million, not matching my $5.2 million estimate.

Ron’s Gone Wrong was eighth in weekend #2 at $3.7 million (I went with $4.1 million) as the animated feature has drawn in only $12 million.

The Addams Family 2 followed in ninth with $3 million and I was close at $3.3 million for $52 million overall.

Finally, Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch expanded to nearly 800 screens and took tenth at $2.6 million. I was more hopeful with $3.8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Eternals Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has been unleashing product at a furious pace following COVID delays and that continues November 5th with Eternals. Arriving four months after Black Widow, two months following Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and a month a half before Spider-Man: No Way Home, this is the 26th MCU superhero tale in the massive series. Chloe Zhao, fresh off a Best Picture and Director win for Nomadland, directs with a cast featuring Gemma Chan, Richard Madden, Kumail Nanjiani, Lia McHugh, Brian Tyree Henry, Lauren Ridloff, Barry Keoghan, Don Lee, Kit Harington, Salma Hayek, and Angelina Jolie.

Originally scheduled for November 2020 before the pandemic altered Disney’s plans, this is the long anticipated adaptation of Jack Kirby’s comics that debuted over half a century ago. Surprisingly, initial buzz is mixed in a way Marvel rarely sees. The Rotten Tomatoes meter currently sits at 63%. That’s the lowest score of any MCU offering to date (just below Thor: The Dark World‘s 66%).

If there’s any franchise that’s teflon, it would be this one. Reviews shouldn’t matter too much, but the word-of-mouth could keep Eternals from reaching COVID era records. Venom: Let There Be Carnage has the best three day start of the period with $90 million. In July, Black Widow took in $80 million out of the gate. Over Labor Day weekend, Shang-Chi surpassed projections with $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $94 million when adding the Monday haul.

Had Eternals achieved the glowing chatter of Shang-Chi, I might be discussing an opening weekend of over $100 million. Now I’m skeptical. I believe it’s more likely that Eternals could debut on pace with what its MCU predecessor did during the first three days. That’s just fine, but it’s an adjustment down from what I would’ve figured even a week or so ago.

Eternals opening weekend prediction: $77.8 million

For my Spencer prediction, click here:

Spencer Box Office Prediction

October 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Halloween weekend brings five (yes five) pictures either debuting or expanding nationally. Some of them may not treat theirselves to a top 5 finish. The contenders are Edgar Wright’s 60s set psychological horror pic Last Night in Soho, Scott Cooper’s creature feature Antlers, Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The French Dispatch, Japanese animated sequel My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, and Amanda Seyfried in the drama A Mouthful of Air. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet at these links:

Last Night in Soho Box Office Prediction

Antlers Box Office Prediction

My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission Box Office Prediction

The French Dispatch Box Office Prediction

A Mouthful of Air Box Office Prediction

I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit. Mouthful is only opening in 800 theaters and has barely been advertised. My tiny $846,000 estimate leaves it outside of the top ten.

Of all the premieres, I suspect Academia could actually make the most and it might be the only one in the top 5. This is based on the assumption that Soho and Antlers will both struggle.

The French Dispatch is more of a question mark. It debuted in 52 venues this weekend and its $1.3 million take (good for ninth place) represents the highest per screen average in the COVID era. However, that could be misleading as it expands across the nation and non-Anderson fanatics may not turn out.

As for holdovers, Dune met expectations in its start (more on that below) and seemed to garner the audience stamp of approval with an A- Cinemascore. It should easily maintain the top spot and I’ll say a 50-55% dip is most feasible. Halloween Kills, No Time to Die, Academia, and maybe even Venom (or Soho or Antlers or Dispatch if they exceed my forecasts) could battle it out for the runner-up position.

With all the new product, my typical top 5 expands to a top 10 as we close out October. Here’s how I see it:

1. Dune

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

2. No Time to Die

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

3. Halloween Kills

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage 

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

6. Last Night in Soho

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

7. Ron’s Gone Wrong

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

8. The French Dispatch

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

9. The Addams Family 2

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

10. Antlers

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (October 22-24)

Despite its simultaneous availability on HBO Max, Denis Villeneuve’s long awaited sci-fi epic Dune performed in the range of anticipation with $41 million, just under my $42.8 million prediction. Considering its streaming dollars, that should certainly be enough for the expected part II.

Halloween Kills was slashed steeply in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was a tad higher at $15.4 million. The middle pic in the trilogy is up to a solid $73 million.

No Time to Die was third with $12.2 million, right on pace with my $12.1 million take. The 25th Bond adventure sits at $120 million.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage took fourth with $9.3 million (I said $9.5 million) for $182 million overall.

Finally, the animated Ron’s Gone Wrong didn’t connect with family audiences. Despite complimentary critical reaction, it opened in the five spot with $7.3 million (not matching my $8.4 million projection).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…