Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: October 25-27

Unless it earns less than half of what Jackass 3D took in for an opening three years ago, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa with Johnny Knoxville should knock Gravity off its three week perch of being #1. The weekend’s other newbie is Ridley Scott’s The Counselor with an impressive cast and curiously, a so-so marketing campaign and no reviews at press time. You can read my prediction posts on both newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/the-counselor-box-office-prediction/

Gravity lost about 30% of its audience from week two to three and I’d expect roughly the same for this weekend. A low 30s drop seems likely for Captain Phillips in week three. And, finally, Carrie opened to a disappointing third place showing in its debut and could easily fall over 50% in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my prediction for this weekend’s top five:

1. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

2. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 29%)

3. The Counselor

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

The Counselor Box Office Prediction

It’s got some incredibly talented and well-respected people involved but will The Counselor break out of the pack and be a hit? Ridley Scott directs this crime drama that boasts an original screenplay from acclaimed novelist Cormac McCarthy. It stars Shame and X-Men First Class star Michael Fassbender and features an all-star supporting cast that includes Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem.

With that kind of pedigree, The Counselor could have a healthy opening above $20 million. However, I don’t think it’s going to happen. The marketing campaign has only been so-so and the TV spots really don’t make it clear what the film is about. Curiously, we’ve seen no mainstream reviews out five days before its debut so buzz (whether it turns out positive or negative) is nonexistent at this juncture. While Fassbender is certainly well-respected, he’s got no track record of opening a film. This could all spell out a muted opening for The Counselor.

While it’s certainly one of my most anticipated releases of the season, there’s been plenty of recent titles catering to an adult audience (Gravity, Captain Phillips, Prisoners). The possibility of The Counselor getting somewhat lost in the shuffle seems very real. I’m going with a debut in the mid-teens.

The Counselor opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/jackass-presents-bad-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Box Office Prediction

For over a decade now, the Jackass franchise has been a mightily profitable one for Paramount and MTV Films. Based on the popular MTV series, Jackass: The Movie opened to $22.7 million in the fall of 2002. Four years later, Jackass Number Two debuted to $29 million. Four years following that, Jackass 3D took in an amazing $50.4 million for its opening.

This Friday brings us Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa in which star Johnny Knoxville portrays said Grandpa, one of the more known characters from the show’s history. This could properly be called a spin-off of the franchise and the trailers claim that it’s all real people reacting to Grandpa’s antics. Bad Grandpa appears to be modeled more after the kind of pics that Sasha Baron Cohen makes.

Bad Grandpa looks to be a true test as to just how hot this franchise still is. A lot of the moviegoers that grew up with Jackass are getting older. Will they turn out? I highly doubt this venture can even approach what Jackass 3D made in 2010. Its enormous opening was way beyond what most thought it could do, but it did have the advantage of higher ticket prices due to the 3D technology.

My gut tells me Bad Grandpa is more likely to debut around the numbers of the first two franchise flicks. It could certainly surprise with a gross north of $30 million but I’m not seeing it. What Bad Grandpa should do is end the three-week reign of the juggernaut Gravity. However, the trend of each Jackass pic opening bigger than the last should end here.

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million

For my prediction on Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/20/the-counselor-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 18-20

The horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate all join the box office fray this weekend. You can find my predictions on all three at these links:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Will any of them have any enough firepower to unseat Gravity from the #1 spot? As I see it, only Carrie stands a chance. However, I’m only putting it at a low 20s opening and that should not be enough to keep Alfonso Cuaron’s space phenomenon from the #1 perch for a third weekend. Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks scored a solid $25 million opening this past weekend and with an A Cinemascore grade, its second weekend decline should be small.

Based on my prediction for The Fifth Estate, it should open at #6 while Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 stays in the top five. And, with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

2. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 28%)

4. Escape Plan

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

I’ll have an update posted Saturday on the blog’s Facebook page with a final report Sunday on the blog!

The Fifth Estate Box Office Prediction

The Fifth Estate stars Benedict Cumberbatch (seen this summer in a fine performance as the villain in Star Trek Into Darkness) as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. From Gods and Monsters and Dreamgirls director Bill Condon, Estate was looked at as a potential awards contender before it screened at some recent film festivals. The result? It sits at a weak 44% on Rotten Tomatoes as many critics were not impressed with what they saw.

Media news stories regarding Assange have been prevalent in recent years and it could help Estate‘s performance. Honestly though, this is the type of picture that greatly would’ve benefited from strong reviews which fuels Oscar buzz. It didn’t turn out that way. The pic is marketed toward an adult crowd who still have Gravity and Captain Phillips in the multiplex. Add it all up and I see a fairly muted debut for this film.

The Fifth Estate opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Carrie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

For my Escape Plan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

Escape Plan Box Office Prediction

There was a time when an action flick starring Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger would have been one of the most eagerly anticipated releases of the year. Those years were about 1985-1995.

Times have changed. And you need look no further than earlier this year for evidence of that. In January, Ah-nuld’s comeback vehicle The Last Stand sputtered with a terrible $6.2 million opening. One month later, the news was even worse for Sly when Bullet to the Head managed only a $4.5 million debut.

Will putting the aging action stars together make a difference? Probably not much of one. The trailers for the prison flick Escape Plan are nothing special. Then there’s the competition factor. Younger moviegoers likely have no desire to see these two guys together anyway and might be preoccupied with Carrie. Older moviegoers may be busy catching Gravity in its third weekend or Captain Phillips in its second.

If you added up to opening weekends of their last two pics, that would get you to $10.7 million. And that may be about where Escape Plan ends up.

Escape Plan opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million

For my Carrie box office prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

For my The Fifth Estate prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Carrie Box Office Prediction

2013 marks the first time in a long time that no horror movie prefaced with Saw or Paranormal Activity sees an October debut. Instead, the only genre flick meant to capitalize on Halloween month is Carrie, which I suppose was the inevitable remake of Brian De Palma’s 1976 scare fest.

Based on Stephen King’s first novel, the ’76 version earned Oscar nominations for Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie. This time around it’s Kick-Ass star Chloe Grace Moritz and Julianne Moore taking over the lead roles. The remake was originally set to debut in March before it was pushed back.

One big question keeps popping up in my mind here: do audiences really want to see a Carrie remake? The original is a genre classic. Yet unlike the remakes of Friday the 13th or Halloween or A Nightmare on Elm Street, there was never a franchise spawned from it to keep it constantly in the public’s mind. Actually there was a “sequel” in 1999 called The Rage: Carrie 2 that earned a weak $17 million domestically. The fact that no horror flick opens this month could certainly help and, frankly, horror movies often open much bigger than people like me say they will.

However, I don’t sense much excitement for this one. The familiarity with the original and the October release date should guarantee it a $20 million plus opening (if it falls below that, it’ll be considered a major letdown). I don’t think it’ll get much over that number though and it will likely fade quickly.

Carrie opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million

For my Escape Plan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Fifth Estate, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 11-13

Gravity continues to defy expectations as it had a remarkable hold in its second weekend. The Alfonso Cuaron space thriller with Sandra Bullock (whose Oscar buzz for this continues to grow) and George Clooney dipped only 21% in the sophomore frame with $44.3 million. This is above my $33.4M projection. Gravity is not just a hit… it’s turning into a phenomenon. In just ten days, it’s made $123 million. An eventual domestic gross of $250 million is not out of the question. To put it in perspective, the pic grossed more in its second weekend that I thought it would make with its opening.

Captain Phillips starring Tom Hanks provided a strong hit for the actor, who hasn’t seen many in the last half decade. Phillips debuted with $26 million, north of my $19.1M estimate. With a terrific A Cinemascore grade, expect this Captain to do well in subsequent weeks as its Oscar buzz also continues to build.

In third place in its third weekend, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took in $14.2 million, right on target with my $14.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a sturdy $78 million and looks like a safe bet to cross the century mark.

Landing with a thud in fourth place is Machete Kills. The Robert Rodriguez sequel starring Danny Trejo, Jessica Alba, Lady Gaga, Mel Gibson, and many more couldn’t capitalize on its star power as it made an awful $3.7 million. This is well below my what I thought was a meager $7.2 million estimate.

In the five spot was the bomb Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck which also made $3.7 million in week #2, right in line with my predicted $3.5M. Runner has made only $14 million in ten days and should struggle to reach $20M domestic.

Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on as my predictions for next weekend’s trio of newbies comes in: the horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate.

Machete Kills Box Office Prediction

Audiences were first introduced to Danny Trejo’s character Machete in 2007’s Grindhouse in one of the brilliant fake trailers. This led director Robert Rodriguez to helm Machete in 2010. That film opened to a fair $11.4 million and overall domestic gross of $26 million. Not great numbers, but it only cost $10.5 million to produce so a profit was made and a sequel was greenlit.

Now we have Machete Kills some three years later with Trejo and Jessica Alba returning and an all-star cast of new characters played by Mel Gibson, Antonio Banderas, Sofia Vergara, Lady Gaga, and Charlie Sheen (playing The President no less!). The budget has nearly doubled to $20 million.

Simply put, I don’t see much demand for a sequel. I believe Machete Kills will basically be a dud and will not match the opening weekend gross of its predecessor. There’s also plenty of competition out there with Gravity and Captain Phillips. Maybe I’m missing some pent up longing for violent Machete action, but I don’t think so.

Machete Kills opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Captain Phillips prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

Captain Phillips Box Office Prediction

Based on the true life 2009 Somali pirate hijacking, director Paul Greengrass tells the story of Captain Phillips, out Friday. With Tom Hanks in the title role, the pic received solid word of mouth from film festivals and sits at a strong 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Greengrass is right in his wheelhouse with the subject matter having directed United 93 as well as The Bourne Supremacy and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Phillips is being touted as an Oscar contender for Picture, Director, and Actor (it would be Hanks’s first nomination in 13 years). What could perhaps hinder its debut is the performance of another Oscar hopeful, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity. That pic just set the October opening weekend record with $55 million and it may experience a relatively small decline in weekend number two.

Captain Phillips could fall anywhere from a $15 million debut to the high 20s, in my estimation. It should have strong legs after its opening based on critical reaction and word of mouth. For now, I’ll say it falls just shy of $20 million for an opening.

Captain Phillips opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million

For my Machete Kills prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/