Tag: Box Office

Mortdecai Box Office Prediction

During this decade, Johnny Depp has seen his share of box office disappointments that include The Tourist, Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger and Transcendence. This Friday, the comedy Mortdecai will succeed or fail solely on the star’s drawing power. Considering the recent history, it could mean a soft opening.

Depp collaborates for the second time with his Secret Window director David Koepp. The supporting cast is filled with famous faces that include Gwyneth Paltrow, Ewan McGregor, Paul Bettany, Olivia Munn and Aubrey Plaza. Reviews have yet to materialize – usually not a good sign. The trailers and TV spots have been unremarkable at best.

It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Mortdecai performs well. I believe it will struggle to reach double digits and won’t. Lionsgate is on record saying they’d like to see Mortdecai become a franchise. After next weekend’s opening, that talk should cease and my prediction would mark Depp’s lowest debut since 2011’s The Rum Diary.

Mortdecai opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

For my Strange Magic prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 16-18

Four high profile pictures enter the marketplace this Friday. They are Clint Eastwood’s Oscar buzz worthy American Sniper starring Bradley Cooper, the Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer, children’s pic Paddington, and Chris Hemsworth headlining and Michael Mann directed cyber thriller Blackhat. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

It’s Sniper that I anticipate ruling the box office weekend with Ringer and Paddington debuting solidly and in the runner up positions. As for Blackhat, it may settle for a weak fifth place premiere, behind current champ Taken 3 in its second weekend. The Liam Neeson sequel should fall hard in its sophomore frame like its predecessor, but its better than anticipated debut makes that a non story.

Finally, Oscar contender Selma opened to less than expected results. Yet I look for it to gain audience in its second frame considering the weekend is named for its subject, Dr. Martin Luther King.

With that, a top six projection for the weekend:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $40.6 million

2. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Taken 3

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

5. Blackhat

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

6. Selma

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 12%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JANUARY 9-11)

As widely expected, Taken 3 easily knocked The Hobbit off its three week reign at #1. The critically drubbed sequel took in an impressive $39.2 million – besting my $32.8M prediction. Neeson says this is the finale of the franchise but something tells me the studio will figure out a way otherwise.

Selma opened second. As previously mentioned, the $11.3 million it earned is underwhelming (I said $17.2M). Yet it should experience low drop offs in subsequent weekends.

2014 holdovers rounded out the top five and all held up a bit worse than my estimates. Into the Woods placed third with $9.5 million ($11.8M prediction). The Hobbit was fourth with $9.3 million ($12.1M prediction). Unbroken was fifth with $8.1 million ($11.7M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $105, $236, and $101 million.

Lastly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice expanded to over 400 screens and did just OK. Its $2.7 million 11th place roll out did manage to top my $1.8M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!

 

Blackhat Box Office Prediction

Its reported $80 million budget represents the largest of all the four films rolling out over Martin Luther King weekend, yet Michael Mann’s cyber thriller Blackhat is likely to be the lowest opener among them. Thor himself Chris Hemsworth headlines the pic with Viola Davis in the supporting cast.

Michael Mann has been behind the camera for many hits that include The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, Collateral and Public Enemies, among others. Hemsworth is widely known for his Thor and Avengers work, but this will be a true test of his box office drawing power.

There have been no reviews released so far, which is curious. The January roll out makes me question just how confident (or not) Universal Pictures is with the project. Blackhat’s stumbling block appears to be its severe competiton. American Sniper seems poised for a big debut and Taken 3 should siphon off viewers as well in its sophomore frame.

Add that up and I look for a muted haul for Blackhat next weekend.

Blackhat opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million

For my prediction on American Sniper, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

Paddington Box Office Prediction

It’s already achieved financial success in the United Kingdom and on Friday, StudioCanal Pictures is hoping Paddington posts solid numbers stateside as well. Based on the well known children’s stories by Michael Bond, this bear tale features Ben Whishaw (Q from the Bond flicks) as the voice of the title character. The cast includes several recognizable faces including Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent and Nicole Kidman.

Reviews have been quite strong as it holds a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Paddington could further benefit from a lack of family fare as Night at the Museum and Annie have now made the bulk of their money. I’ll predict this bear manages an opening somewhere between $20 and $25 million for a respectable beginning.

Paddington opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million

For my prediction on American Sniper, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

For my Blackhat prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

The Wedding Ringer Box Office Prediction

Never mind that its premise sounds somewhat similar to 2009’s I Love You, Man. The considerable star power of Kevin Hart should be enough to propel The Wedding Ringer to a strong opening. Hart headlines as a consultant tasked with providing best man services for dudes without friends. Josh Gad costars as his latest employer.

Just last year over MLK weekend, Hart found himself with the highest grossing January opening of all time with Ride Along. It began a year of hits for the actor that included About Last Night and Think Like a Man Too. Ringer seems unlikely to debut in the neighborhood of Ride Along. To be fair, however, no one saw that film’s massive premiere coming.

I’ll estimate that The Wedding Ringer opens more in line with Hart’s Think Like a Man sequel from last summer for a solid start that should put it in second position after American Sniper.

The Wedding Ringer opening weekend prediction: $29.4 million

For my prediction on American Sniper, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

For my Blackhat prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

American Sniper Box Office Prediction

Expanding nationwide one day after Oscar nominations are revealed, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper hits theaters Friday. Bradley Cooper has been getting some of the best reviews of his career playing the real life title character Chris Kyle, known for having the most kills in U.S. military history. Sienna Miller costars as his wife.

Trailers and TV spots have been quite effective and the solid critical reaction helps. Sniper seems likely to receive a Best Picture nomination, though that’s not guaranteed (my final predictions arrive Tuesday). The pic could particularly play well in middle America.

Last January, another war themed flick Lone Survivor debuted to higher than anticipated grosses with $38 million. That would seem to be a fair range to put Sniper in. In fact, I believe it could contend for biggest January premiere ever. That honor currently belongs to Ride Along, which took in $41.5 million a year ago. My estimate has Sniper falling just shy of that mark.

American Sniper opening weekend prediction: $40.6 million

For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

For my Blackhat prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 9-11

The second box office weekend of the new year gives us three new releases: Liam Neeson’s return to his action franchise Taken 3, the civil rights awards hopeful Selma, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice. You can find my individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/taken-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/04/selma-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/inherent-vice-box-office-prediction/

Taken 3 should have no trouble opening at the top spot while Selma should manage a solid second place debut. Due to its limited number of screens it’s premiering on, Inherent Vice is likely to land far outside the top five. I have it earning $1.8 million.

As for holdovers such as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Into the Woods, and Unbroken, all should lose less than half their audience from the previous frame. It could be a real fight between them for numbers 3-5. The same cannot be said for The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, which is primed for a hefty fall that’s not uncommon for horror pics.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top 5:

1. Taken 3

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million

2. Selma 

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Into the Woods 

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (January 2-4)

As expected, the third and final Hobbit effort spent its third weekend at #1 with $21.7 million, just under my $23.3M prediction. Its total stands at $220 million and should get to around $275M domestic.

In second in its sophomore frame was Into the Woods with $18.7 million – right on target with my $18.5M projection. Its total since Christmas stands at $90 million and $150M is in sight. Another Christmas release, Unbroken, was third with $18.1 million compared to my $19.2M estimate. Its cume is up to $87 million. It could end up between $140-145M.

The Woman in Black 2: The Angel of Death was the weekend’s only new offering and it performed better than anticipated with $15 million, ahead of my $11.1M prediction. As mentioned earlier, look for it to fall precipitously next weekend.

Family holdovers made up the five and six slots, both in their third weekends. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb took in $14.5 million, on target with my $14.3M prognosis. Annie made $11.2 million and I said… $11.2 million! Boom! Their respective total grosses are $89M and $72M.

Until next time folks!

 

 

 

 

Selma Box Office Prediction

A serious Oscar hopeful expands nationwide this Friday as Selma opens. Focusing on the 1965 voting rights marches, the film casts David Oyelowo as Dr. Martin Luther King and the supporting cast includes Tom Wilkinson, Tim Roth, Carmen Ejogo and Oprah Winfrey, who also serves as a producer.

Selma is considered to be at the top of the list for potential Oscar winners. Director Ana DuVernay is likely to be the first African American woman to receive a nomination. Reviews have been strong and its Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 100%.

It’s easy to see where they’d be a wide interest and I expect Selma’s debut to be strong. My main challenge here: I’ve yet to see a count of screens for its expansion Friday. For now, I’ll assume a roll out of around 2000 screens. If that’s the case, I look for a per screen average similar to the last picture that Oprah was involved with, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. 

That would get in the high teens for its opening a week before Oscar nominations are revealed.

Selma opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my Taken 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/taken-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Inherent Vice prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/inherent-vice-box-office-prediction/

Inherent Vice Box Office Prediction

Paul Thomas Anderson has certainly been making some of the most fascinating pictures of the last nearly two decades with Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood and The Master among his credits. This Friday, his latest effort Inherent Vice makes its debut. The crime thriller/comedy boasts an all star cast that includes Joaquin Phoenix, Josh Brolin, Reese Witherspoon, Benicio del Toro, Maya Rudolph, Martin Short and Owen Wilson.

Based on the novel by Thomas Pynchon, critical notices for Vice has been generally positive if a bit under Anderson’s normal acclaim. Its Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 71% currently. Like most of the director’s work, this is certainly not expected to be a blockbuster and is primarily aimed at core fans. As expected, it’s had a successful run in limited release but faces the question as to how well it plays nationwide. Currently estimates put it at just over 400 theaters (relatively low) Friday.

Inherent Vice could pull in about the same per screen average as Joaquin’s last pic Her which expanded one year ago. I’ll estimste it gets a little higher since it’s on considerably less screens, but that still leaves it struggling to reach $2 million out of the gate.

Inherent Vice opening weekend prediction: $1.8 million

For my prediction post on Taken 3, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/taken-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Selma prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/04/selma-box-office-prediction/

 

 

 

Taken 3 Box Office Prediction

Once again Liam Neeson is back in vengeance mode as Taken 3 makes its way to theaters this Friday. The 2009 original kicked off a new career for Mr. Neeson as an improbable action star and it’s paid major dividends for him.

No one expected the first Taken to perform as it did when it made $24.7 million on its way to a $139 million domestic haul. The 2012 sequel kept the momentum going with a $49.5 million premiere with an eventual gross of $145 million.

Forest Whitaker joins the mix this time along with returnees Maggie Grace and Famke Janssen (though not long for her according to the spoiler happy TV spots). One must wonder if audience anticipation will wane a bit this time around. While the second go round did outdo the first, it wasn’t considered as solid as the original. Moviegoers may be growing slightly weary of viewing Neeson’s special set of skills.

Nevertheless, while the third entry may end up being the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise, I still see it topping $30 million out of the gate and easily topping the charts next weekend.

Taken 3 opening weekend prediction: $32.8 million

For my Selma prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/04/selma-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction post on Inherent Vice, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/03/inherent-vice-box-office-prediction/