Tag: Box Office

Box Office Predictions: January 13-16

Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.

Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.

My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.

Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.

And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:

1. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)

2. Patriots Day

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

3. Sing

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)

6. Live by Night

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

7. Sleepless

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

8. Monster Trucks

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

9. The Bye Bye Man

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

10. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (January 6-8)

In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.

Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.

Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.

Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.

La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.

The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:

6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million

7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million

8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.

9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.

10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.

Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

The Bye Bye Man Box Office Prediction

Horror fans get their first taste of the genre in 2017 as The Bye Bye Man hits theaters next weekend. The low-budget flick finds a group of college students tormented by the title character (Doug Jones). Costars include Douglas Smith, Cressida Bonas, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Faye Dunaway.

Made for just $6 million, Bye Bye is likely to turn a profit no matter what. Scary movies are notoriously tough to predict (they over perform more often than not), yet I’m not sure this will conjure up much business. It could perform similarly to last January’s The Boy, which opened to $10.8M. Bye Bye will have the four-day MLK weekend to try and reach double digits, but I’ll predict it falls just short of that (still managing to easily top its price tag out of the gate).

The Bye Bye Man opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million

For my Patriots Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Live by Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Sleepless prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

For my Monster Trucks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

For my Silence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

Silence Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.

One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.

Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.

The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.

Silence opening weekend prediction: $3 million

For my Patriots Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Live by Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Sleepless prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

For my Monster Trucks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

For my The Bye Bye Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

 

Monster Trucks Box Office Prediction

Paramount Pictures may have an enormous flop on their hands when Monster Trucks next weekend. And that’s not just me saying that, folks. The studio itself has reportedly taken a $115 million write down on the project due to its anticipated bad performance.

Made for an inexplicable $125 million, the 3D live-action/computer animated flick is hoping to appeal to young boys who may drag their parents simply based on its title. Chris Wedge, known for animated fare such as Ice Age and Robots, directs. The cast includes Lucas Till, Jane Levy, Amy Ryan, Rob Lowe, Danny Glover, Barry Pepper, and lots of questionable looking CG based on the trailers. Trucks has been in the can for some time. It was originally scheduled to come out over a year and a half ago and then experienced multiple delays.

Coproduced by Nickelodeon Movies, the fact that a film of this budget has been relegated to a crowded January weekend tells you all you need to know. I believe Monster will just top double digits over the long MLK weekend and earn its expected status as a bomb.

Monster Trucks opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million

For my Patriots Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Live by Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Sleepless prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

For my Silence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

For my The Bye Bye Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

Sleepless Box Office Prediction

Based on a 2011 French feature, Sleepless will attempt to bring audiences in when it debuts next weekend. The action thriller stars Jamie Foxx as a crooked cop embroiled in a kidnapping case. Michelle Monaghan (pulling double duty over MLK weekend with Patriots Day as well), T.I., Dermot Mulroney, David Harbour, and Gabrielle Union costar.

The Open Roads Films product could face a tough road attracting attention. For starters, competition is fierce with the aforementioned Patriots and Ben Affleck’s Live by Night looking to lure similar viewers. If it weren’t for that level of competition, my estimate here would probably be higher. There’s little doubt Sleepless will come in third among them.

Just how far in third is the real question. I don’t believe trailers and TV spots have done much to indicate this is anything more than a wait for On Demand experience. Foxx has his fans, but I suspect that will not be enough for anything other than a low double digits roll out.

Sleepless opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Patriots Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Live by Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Silence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

For my Monster Trucks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

For my The Bye Bye Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

Live by Night Box Office Prediction

Live by Night marks Ben Affleck’s fourth time behind the camera in a directorial career that has been quite impressive thus far. The crime drama, in which he also stars, is his first effort since 2012’s Oscar winning Argo. Costars include Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Sienna Miller, Zoe Saldana, and Chris Cooper. Based on his filmography, Night was once seen as a potential awards contender around the Hollywood town. Yet since its critical screenings, that notion appears to be gone, baby, gone. The pic has not garnered praise by reviewers and it currently holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 35%.

Will that hurt its box office potency? My feeling is that it will. Like his directorial debut Gone Baby Gone (mentioned in the aforementioned bad pun), this is based on a novel by Dennis Lehane and comes with a reported $65 million budget. The chances of Night coming in below expectations could be due to more factors than mediocre reviews. It opens on a packed weekend where Patriots Day will going for a similar audience (as will Sleepless with Jamie Foxx). On the other hand, Affleck’s latest starring vehicle The Accountant exceeded expectations three months ago with an opening weekend of nearly $25 million.

So where will this land? I believe it’ll debut over the four-day MLK weekend with far less than Patriots Day (which I’ve got pegged at $23M) and in the low double digits to mid teens neighborhood.

Live by Night opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million

For my Patriots Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Sleepless prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

For my Silence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

For my Monster Trucks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

For my The Bye Bye Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

Patriots Day Box Office Prediction

Patriots Day, out next weekend, marks the third collaboration between Mark Wahlberg and director Peter Berg recounting real-life dramatic events. It arrives only four months after their second. In January 2014, the duo teamed up for Lone Survivor, the war tale which grossed over $37 million in its first weekend of wide release with an eventual $125M domestic haul. In September of last year, they followed up with Deepwater Horizon (recounting the BP Oil Spill). It debuted to a less impressive $20 million and overall $66M gross.

Their latest focuses on events surrounding the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Besides the aforementioned personnel, costars include John Goodman, J.K. Simmons, Michelle Monaghan, and Kevin Bacon. Patriots opened in limited release in December, likely in order to merit Oscar consideration (of which it’ll probably receive little). Still, reviews have been mostly strong at 78% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

So where will this fall numbers wise compared to Wahlberg and Berg’s previous efforts? I don’t believe it will match what Survivor accomplished but suspect it could eclipse Horizon. Debuting over the four-day MLK weekend, Day stands a very good chance at posting the highest opening of the six pictures coming out. That means I have it outpacing Ben Affleck’s Live by Night, which should serve as its most direct competition.

I’ll say it manages low to mid-20s out of the gate.

Patriots Day opening weekend prediction: $23.6 million

For my Live by Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Sleepless prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

For my Monster Trucks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/monster-trucks-box-office-prediction/

For my The Bye Bye Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

For my Silence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 6-8

The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful Hidden Figures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: Blood Wars, and sci-fi drama A Monster Calls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/hidden-figures-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/a-monster-calls-box-office-prediction/

Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of Rogue One and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.

As for Blood Wars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.

La La Land is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likely outside of the top ten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Sing

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million

3. Hidden Figures

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

4. Underworld: Blood Wars

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

5. La La Land

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

6. Passengers

Predicted Gross: $9 million

7. Fences

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

8. Moana

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

9. Why Him?

Predicted Gross: $6 million

10. Assassin’s Creed

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)

The four-day New Years weekend gave Rogue One its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.

Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.

Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.

Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.

Rounding out the top five was Why Him? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.

In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.

Oscar favorite La La Land expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.

Eighth place: Assassin’s Creed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.

The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and Manchester by the Sea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).

Collateral Beauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. Office Christmas Party was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Monster Calls Box Office Prediction

When J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls debuted in September at the Toronto Film Festival, it did so to solid buzz and even some awards chatter. Much of that talk seems to have dissipated from nearly four months ago and the pic may struggle to find an audience when it opens wide next weekend.

Based on an acclaimed 2011 novel by Patrick Ness, Calls mixes science fiction elements with tearjerker family drama in this tale of a monstrous creature helping a young boy deal with his grief. Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Lewis MacDougall, and Liam Neeson (voicing the title character) star.

As mentioned, most reviews have been encouraging (it’s at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet I wonder what segment of the movie going public will turn out for this. The film was originally scheduled for an October stateside debut before being pushed back. Sci-fi genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately and Underworld: Blood Wars opens against it. A female crowd that might get drawn in by the family drama angle could be put off with the mystical elements. The early January release date doesn’t inspire much hope that Focus Features has tremendous confidence in it.

Festival word-of-mouth aside, I’ll predict A Monster Calls struggles to reach  a mid single digits reception. At least director Bayona can take comfort that his next feature, 2018’s Jurassic World sequel, will likely gross at least 50 times what this might in its opening weekend.

A Monster Calls opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

For my Hidden Figures prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/hidden-figures-box-office-prediction/

Hidden Figures Box Office Prediction

An Oscar hopeful expands to wide release next Friday when Hidden Figures rolls out across the country. The true tale of three women (Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae) who were instrumental in the NASA space program in the 1960s has garnered critical praise (92% on Rotten Tomatoes) and is said to be quite the crowd pleaser. Theodore Melfi directs with Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons, and Mahershala Ali in the supporting cast.

Over the Christmas weekend, Figures figured an impressive $838,000 gross on just 25 screens. That’s a strong $33K per screen average. The pic stands a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination come Oscar announcement time and Octavia Spencer could also receive a Supporting Actress nod.

As I see it, the chances for this to over perform are mathematically greater than the alternative. 20th Century Fox is hoping to attract a sizable female and African American audience and they’ll likely be successful. I believe Figures could even outdo Underworld: Blood Wars, which opens the same day. I’ve got that one pegged at $17.6M. I’ll put this one over it for what would be a #2 debut.

Hidden Figures opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million

For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

For my A Monster Calls prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/a-monster-calls-box-office-prediction/