Next weekend, ThePromise will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers but could face a serious uphill battle. From HotelRwanda director Terry George, the film is a love triangle set during the Armenian genocide in the early 20th Century. Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon make up aforementioned triangle.
The pic was once looked at as a potential Oscar hopeful before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it stands at only 31% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Surprisingly, ThePromise is slated to debut on around 2000 screens so Open Road Films must think it could do OK. Even with the participation of Bale and Isaac, I foresee a very weak premiere.
ThePromise opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.
Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:
Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut
Oceans (2010) – $6 million
African Cats (2011) – $6 million
Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million
Bears (2014) – $4.7 million
Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million
As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).
Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
There’s a fatal attraction going on in theaters next weekend as Unforgettable debuts. The thriller stars Katherine Heigl as an ex-wife terrorizing her husband’s new bride (Rosario Dawson). Geoff Stults and Cheryl Ladd costar.
Heigl burst onto the movie scene nearly 10 years ago with mega-hit comedy Knocked Up and proceeded to headline other successful rom coms like 27 Dresses and The Ugly Truth. Since then, her star has been on the wane with lower performing pics and failed TV projects.
Unforgettable stands a shot at being a minor success. These Lifetime type flicks on the big screen have a track record of faring decently. The Boy Next Door with Jennifer Lopez debuted to nearly $15 million. Screen Gems has even slotted a mid September weekend for the past three years with such material and the results have been pleasing: 2014’s No Good Deed ($24.2M opening), The Perfect Guy ($25.8M), and When the Bough Breaks ($14.2M).
If enough females turn out for this, I could envision a premiere in the low double digits/teens to possibly mid teens (that could be stretching it).
Unforgettable opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
It’s Easter Weekend and it’s sure to be dominated by the release of The Fate of the Furious, the eighth picture in the blockbuster franchise. We also have the wide release of Gifted, a drama with Chris Evans and Octavia Spencer that expands to 1000 screens on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
My estimate for Fate would give it the second largest debut of the franchise and second biggest April bow of all time… both behind 2015’s Furious 7.
The real battle could be for the #2 slot between hit holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast. I anticipate a razor thin margin between those titles.
Last weekend’s new releases Smurfs: The Lost Village (which suffered a lackluster opening) and Going in Style should round out the top five, in what could be a potentially close race itself.
As for Gifted, it had a decent roll out in limited release this past weekend and my forecast for it would put it in sixth place.
Holdovers should dominate the remainder of the top 5.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the holiday frame:
1. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $122.7 million
2. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
4. Smurfs: The Lost Village
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. GoinginStyle
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 40%)
6. Gifted
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
The Boss Baby was tops for the second weekend in a row with $26.3 million. This is right on target with my $26.1M prognosis and the Dreamworks animated tale has made $89 million at press time.
Beauty and the Beast was second with $23.6 million, in line with my $24M estimate. The Disney smash stands at $430 million currently with $500M in its sights.
Smurfs: The Lost Village couldn’t break through with family audiences in its third place debut. The third flick in the franchise (and the first that’s totally animated) grossed just $13.2 million (I went higher with $20.4M).
The geriatric comedy GoinginStyle had an OK fourth place premiere with $11.9 million. I was close with $11.5M. The Morgan Freeman/Michael Caine pic will hope older crowds cause it to hold up well in subsequent weekends.
Ghost in the Shell was fifth with $7.3 million (I said $7.9M) to brings its unimpressive tally to just $31 million.
Finally, faith-based drama The Case for Christ made a decent case for itself with $3.9 million, just above my $3.4M estimate.
Fox Searchlight looks to offer some dramatic counter programming to TheFateoftheFurious this weekend as Gifted is presented in approximately 1000 theaters. Marc Webb, known for (500) Days of Summer and the two Andrew Garfield Spider–Man pics, directs this tale of a super smart kid caught up in a custody fight. The cast includes Chris Evans, Octavia Spencer, Mckenna Grace, Lindsay Duncan, and Jenny Slate.
Gifted has received some decent reviews as it sits at 63% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It opened in limited release this precious weekend and fared pretty well, collecting $476,000 on only 56 screens.
The pic will be showing on about 1/4 of the screens that Vin Diesel’s blockbuster will be. The best case scenario could be a premiere in the mid single digits and that’s where I have Gifted landing over Easter weekend.
Gifted opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
For my TheFateoftheFurious prediction, click here:
Universal Pictures’ billion dollar franchise keeps rolling along as The Fate of the Furious parks into multiplexes on Easter Weekend. The eighth (yes, eighth) street racing action spectacle finds Straight Outta Compton director F. Gary Gray taking over behind the camera. Fate finds the majority of thespians associated with the series returning – Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Ludacis, Jason Statham, Kurt Russell, and Nathalie Emmanuel. We also have a pair of Oscar winners joining the mix with Charlize Theron and Helen Mirren, as well as Scott Eastwood (whose dad has won some Oscars). Of course, this is the first picture (excluding 2006’s Tokyo Drift) without Paul Walker, who died during the filming of Furious 7.
When Diesel and Walker returned to the franchise in 2009’s Fast and Furious, it sparked a box office resurgence that’s never let up. That fourth entry debuted to $70 million with an overall $155M domestic haul. Follow-up Fast Five in 2011 opened to $86 million ($209M eventual tally). 2013’s Fast & Furious 6 made $97 million out of the gate and $238M eventually. And 2015’s Furious 7 easily set the high mark with a $147 million premiere and $353M overall.
The grosses of Furious 7 were likely (and sadly) expanded due to it being Walker’s last on-screen appearance. Therefore it stands to reason that Fate probably won’t reach the heights of that predecessor. That said, this looks to be a franchise that is still going strong and it would be surprising if it didn’t post the second largest bow thus far.
I’ll predict the fate of this is an opening gross in the low to mid $120M range.
The Fate of the Furious opening weekend prediction: $122.7 million
The first full weekend of April brings us a trio of new releases: family friendly animated three-quel Smurfs: The Lost Village, geriatric comedy Going in Style with Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine, and faith-based drama The Case for Christ. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on them here:
As I see it, the Smurfs should easily be tops among the newbies. Yet it may not earn enough to topple the current #1 and #2 which also appeal to families – The Boss Baby and Beauty in the Beast. In fact, we could a rather close battle between Baby and Beauty this time around.
Going in Style has some sleeper potential, but I’m predicting a low double digits premiere which would put it in fourth place.
Ghost in the Shell had a disappointing opening (more on that below) and should lose a significant chunk of its audience in weekend #2 to round out the top five.
The Case for Christ is debuting on approximately 1100 screens. I’ve got it slated to earn $3.4 million, which would put outside the top five.
And with that, your top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $26.1 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 47%)
3. Smurfs: The Lost Village
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
4. Going in Style
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million
5. Ghost in the Shell
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)
In a bit of an upset, Dreamworks animated The Boss Baby topped the charts with a fantastic $50.1 million, blowing past my meager $28.6M prediction. The Alec Baldwin voiced ‘toon proved critic proof (it stands at just 48% on Rotten Tomatoes) and gives its studio a sizable hit.
Beauty and the Beast continued its terrific run, but slipped to second with $45.4 million (just under my $48.8M estimate) for a total gross of $393M.
In a March frame where most pictures exceeded expectations, Ghost in the Shell achieved the opposite with a weak $18.6 million for third. This is well below my $30.3M prediction and it’s clear that casting controversies and mediocre reviews helped contribute to the middling premiere.
Power Rangers took a precipitous tumble in its sophomore frame with $14.2 million for fourth place, considerably under my $20.1M forecast. The severe second weekend drop puts in question any planned sequels.
Kong: Skull Island rounded out the top five at $8.5 million (I said $7.9M) for a $147M overall tally.
Finally, The Zookeeper’s Wife overcame so-so reviews with a pleasing showing in 10th with $3.2 million on only 541 screens. This bested my $2.1M projection and it could show sturdy legs as it expands its theater count this weekend. It’s per screen average was actually higher than that of Ghost in the Shell.
This Friday, The Case for Christ will attempt to capitalize on the upcoming Easter holiday by bringing in faith-based audiences. Pictures in this genre have over performed in the past. Christ focuses on proving the existence of Jesus with a cast that includes Mike Vogel, Erika Christensen, Robert Forster, and Faye Dunaway (last seen accidentally proclaiming La La Land as Best Picture instead of Moonlight).
The pic comes from Pure Flix Entertainment and they specialize in these Christian themed dramas. Their biggest success was 2014’s God’s Not Dead, which surprised prognosticators with a $9 million opening and $60 million eventual domestic gross. Christ is slated to premiere on around 1100 screens, which isn’t a huge number.
I don’t believe this will enter the territory of the studio’s largest success. Instead, I could see a gross similar to their 2015 effort Do You Believe?, which made $3.5 million out of the gate on a similar (1320 screens) number of venues.
The Case for Christ opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:
Call it Grumpy Old Thieves as Going in Style debuts at the box office next weekend. The pic is actually a remake of a 1979 caper comedy with George Burns and Art Carney about some old men cheated out of their pensions who exact the revenge. Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, and Alan Arkin are the headliners with Zach Braff directing. Costars include Joey King, Ann-Margret, Christopher Lloyd, Kenan Thompson, and Matt Dillon. Theodore Melfi, who recently directed Hidden Figures, is the screenwriter.
Style could work reasonably well as a pleasant diversion for older moviegoers. The box office has been dominated by family fare as of late and comedies have been in rather short supply (CHiPs didn’t exactly set the multiplex on fire).
There’s a possibility that this could put up similar numbers to Last Vegas, which premiered to $16 million. That’s on the higher end of expectations. I believe a more likely scenario is $10-$13 million with the hope from Warner Bros that word of mouth is solid and it does well in subsequent weekends.
Going in Style opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million
For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:
Columbia Pictures hopes that moviegoers have the blues in a good way next weekend when Smurfs: The Lost Village debuts. This is the third pic in the franchise based on the 1980s cartoon and the studio has made a change-up. While 2011’s The Smurfs and its 2013 sequel were a mix of live-action and animation, The Lost Village cuts the human aspect and is of the fully drawn variety. That means Neil Patrick Harris and Hank Azaria are nowhere to be seen, unlike the first two.
Voice over work is provided by familiar faces that include Demi Lovato, Rainn Wilson, Joe Manganiello, Mandy Patinkin, Michelle Rodgriguez, Jack McBrayer, Ellie Kemper, Danny Pudi, Ariel Winter, and Julia Roberts. Kelly Asbury, who handled directorial duties on Shrek 2, is behind the camera.
The 2011 Smurfs was a hit, opening to $35 million with an eventual $142M domestic haul. Part two did not fare as well, premiering to $17 million and $71M overall.
Competition for family audiences is considerable. Beauty and the Beast will still be bringing in the bucks in weekend #4, Powers Rangers will be in its third frame, and The Boss Baby will be entering its sophomore weekend.
That said, I expect The Lost Village to outdo what the second movie did out of the gate. I anticipate an opening in the high teens to low 20s. That likely means a third place showing behind Baby and Beauty. Whether or not that’s enough to push forward with planned sequel Smurf & Turf (in which the characters become embroiled in a vicious gangland war) remains to be seen.
Smurfs: The Lost Village opening weekend prediction: $20.4 million
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