Blogger’s Note (08/17): I am revising my Logan Lucky prediction down to $10.5 million on the eve of its debut.
The eclectic Steven Soderbergh is back in theaters with heist comedy Logan Lucky, debuting next weekend. It marks the director’s first theatrical release in four and a half years since Side Effects and first picture altogether since 2013’s Behind the Candelabra which premiered on HBO.
Lucky is headlined by many familiar faces, including Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Daniel Craig (getting raves for the role), Seth MacFarlane, Riley Keough, Katie Holmes, Hilary Swank, Katherine Waterston, Dwight Yoakam, and Sebastian Stan. Reviews have been quite pleasing and it stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes, being frequently compared to the Ocean‘s trilogy that Soderbergh made.
Even with the solid reviews and a NASCAR tie-in (the film’s heist takes place at a race), there could be some issues with this completely breaking out. There is direct competition in the form of The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and it’s more likely to debut a bit higher. The mid August release date is also not one that lends itself well to openings above $20 million.
I’ll predict Lucky‘s number falls in the low to possibly mid teens, as it will hope to leg out well in future weekends (and may well do so).
Logan Lucky opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my The Hitman’s Bodyguard prediction, click here:
Deadpool may never appear in an Avengers film, but he costars with Nick Fury next weekend when TheHitman’sBodyguard opens. The action comedy brings together Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and looks to target the #1 spot over a rival competing for a similar audience. Patrick Hughes directs with Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek in the supporting cast.
It’s been a year and a half since the star power of Mr. Reynolds went way up with the aforementioned Deadpool. Since then, he’s appeared in supporting roles in Criminal and Life (both box office disappointments). Bodyguard, however, is his first headlining role since his winter 2016 blockbuster.
The pic could somewhat benefit from the dog days of August release and scarce competition – with one notable exception. Another action comedy with some big names – Steven Soderbergh’s LoganLucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig – debuts against it and it’s getting solid reviews. Lucky could charm some viewers away, but the net result could be slightly lower numbers for both because they’re directly competing against each other.
I’ll say Bodyguard manages to come out on top with a debut in the mid to high teens, which should be good for the top spot.
TheHitman’sBodyguard opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
August rolled in like a lamb at the box office and three new releases this weekend will try and pick things up: horror prequel Annabelle: Creation, animated sequel The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, and Brie Larson led drama The Glass Castle. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Annabelle has received significantly better reviews than its predecessor, yet I still question its ability to open above it (the original was coming hot on the heels of The Conjuring). Still, my estimate for Creation has it easily topping the charts in the low 30s.
My lower teens estimate for Nutty by Nature (yeah you know me) should be good enough for second place considering expectations for holdovers and the weak debut of current #1 The Dark Tower (more on its opening below).
As for The Glass Castle, the current theater count is 1400 which is pretty low. Even though it’s based on a popular book from 2005, the marketing campaign seems rather quiet and I’ve got it outside the top five at $4.2 million. Note that this number could be revised up (and maybe down though doubtful) as the week rolls along.
Dunkirk may just fall one spot to third with Tower dropping to fourth. The five spot could be a battle between The Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. And with that, we’ll do a top 6 projections for this particular weekend:
1. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million
2. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. The Dark Tower
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Girls Trip
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. The Emoji Movie
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 50%)
Box Office Results (August 4-6)
The long-awaited adaptation of Stephen King’s The Dark Tower experienced four revisions down from my original prediction post which put it in the mid 30s (that seems like a long time ago). It soon became clear the pic wasn’t going to perform too well and that bore out with $19.1 million (my final prediction was $18.4M). That’s still good for first place, but it’s a pretty darn soft debut. Poor reviews and word-of-mouth took its toll. This was only the third weekend of the year (and first of the summer) to feature a #1 movie performing under $20M (though I’d anticipate more later in the month).
Dunkirk dropped to second after two weeks on top with $17.1 million (ahead of my predicted $15.5M) for a total of $133M.
The Emoji Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12 million (I said $11.4M) to bring its two-week tally to $49M.
Girls Trip took the four spot with $11.4 million, a bit shy of my $12.9M projection to bring the sleeper hit’s total to $85M.
The Halle Berry thriller Kidnap had a decent little opening in fifth with $10 million, easily outpacing my $6.8M projection. Its double digit debut was certainly on the higher end of expectations.
For Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, its performance was underwhelming. Despite very positive reviews, the 1960s set racial drama placed 8th with just $7.1 million compared to my $11.6M forecast.
Some hoped for summer counter programming is attempted next weekend when The Glass Castle hits theaters. The family drama is based on a 2005 bestseller by Jeannette Walls that sold nearly 3 million copies. Castle reunites director Destin Daniel Cretton with his Short Term 12 lead Brie Larson. Costars include Woody Harrelson, Naomi Watts, and Sarah Snook.
Based on its source material’s popularity, the film could certainly exceed my rather low expectations. That said, the middle of August is a rather strange time to release a movie like this one as it would seem more suited for autumn. Larson and Harrelson have certainly been visible recently, with the former’s Oscar win in Room and costarring in Kong: Skull Island and the latter being the human headliner in War for the Planet of the Apes.
A theater count could also shed some light on its potential, but I don’t have a firm one yet (Box Office Mojo has it listed at 1400 right now, which is pretty low). I’ll say it manages between $3-$5 million in its opening weekend.
The Glass Castle opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:
Annabelle: Creation isn’t the only follow-up to a 2014 picture opening next weekend as animated sequel TheNutJob2: NuttybyNature debuts. Will Arnett, Katherine Heigl, Gabriel Iglesias, and Jeff Dunham return their voices from the original as Maya Rudolph, Bobby Cannavale, Bobby Moynihan, and Jackie Chan lend their stylings as well.
The animal heist pic hopes to repeat the success of the first which was made for a reported $42 million, made $64 domestically and $128 million worldwide. That stands as the largest gross ever for distributor Open Road.
Summer 2017 has seen its share of sequelitis and there’s been a plethora of higher profile animated offerings. In my estimation that likely means a bit of a drop for part 2’s debut (the first opened to $19 million). Even though I give it a modicum of credit for subtitling itself after an awesome early 90s hip hop group (yeah you know me), I’ll say a low double digits to low teens premiere is the result.
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
For my Annabelle: Creation prediction, click here:
The demented doll made famous four summers ago is back in Annabelle: Creation, a prequel to 2014’s original, which itself was a spin-off of 2013’s breakout horror smash TheConjuring. This follow-up is from director David F. Sandberg, who made last summer’s well-received LightsOut. Stars include Stephanie Sigman, Talitha Bateman, Anthony LaPaglia, and Miranda Otto.
There is one major difference between the 2014 spin-off and its sequel. While Annabelle only obtained a 29% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, this one is surprisingly at 100% and is obviously said to be a marked improvement.
How will that translate to box office dollars? Annabelle opened to a better than anticipated $37.1 million and was front loaded in its business with an eventual $84 million domestic gross. TheConjuring2 from last summer couldn’t quite match its original’s debut (though it was awfully close at $41 million vs. $40 million).
Competition is relatively light, but even with the solid reviews, I don’t expect Creation to quite match the premiere of its predecessor. However, it may leg out better. I’ll say a high 20s to low 30s debut is most probable.
Annabelle: Creation opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million
For my The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (08/03): On eve of debut, revising Dark Tower down significantly
The month of August begins at the box office with three new releases hitting multiplexes: the long in the works Stephen King adaptation The Dark Tower with Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey, Kathryn Bigelow’s 1960s set racial drama Detroit, and Halle Berry’s oft delayed thriller Kidnap. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Over the past week, I have considerably revised my Dark Tower estimate down from a mid 30s debut to now mid 20s. That should be enough to get it to #1, however.
Detroit is garnering highly positive reviews and could certainly over perform, but I’ve got it pegged in the low double digits with a likelihood it plays well through the month. That might be good for anywhere between third and fifth – depending on holdover activity for Emoji Movie and Girls Trip.
Kidnap could surprise (no one thought Berry’s The Call would do the business it did), but I’m not projecting much for it. My $6.8M estimate puts it outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Dunkirk should slide to second after two weeks on top. Animated movies typically suffer smallish drops in their sophomore weekend, but The Emoji Movie could be an exception to the rule after its dismal reviews and so-so B Cinemascore grade. Girls Trip should continue to impress in week #3.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. The Dark Tower
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
2. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. Girls Trip
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Detroit
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. The Emoji Movie
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (July 28-30)
Christopher Nolan’s acclaimed Dunkirk was the first pic since Wonder Woman to stay atop the charts for two weeks in a row as it grossed $26.6 million (under my $32.8M projection) for a two-week total of $101 million.
The Emoji Movie settled for second place with $24.5 million, a bit below my $28.4M forecast. As mentioned, poor reviews and word-of-mouth could keep this from performing well in subsequent weekends.
Girls Trip continued its fantastic run as the comedy of the summer with $19.6 million compared to my $17.3M estimate. Its earned $65 million thus far with the century mark firmly in its sights.
Charlize Theron’s spy thriller Atomic Blonde did rather underwhelming business with $18.2 million, on target with my $18.6M prediction. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t keep this from a mediocre start.
Spider-Man: Homecoming rounded out the top five with $13.2 million (I said $12M) for a $278M overall tally.
Blogger’s Note (08/03): My estimate has trickled up on the eve of release to $6.8M.
Halle Berry headlines the crime thriller Kidnap next weekend. This is considerably behind the time frame it was supposed to be released and that could serve as a big stumbling block to its box office potential, as its marketing campaign has been fairly minor.
It was over four years ago that Berry’s TheCall surprised prognosticators with a more than expected $17 million debut and $51 million overall domestic haul. Kidnap was shot in the fall of 2014 and was likely intended to cash in on that particular hit. However, its studio Relativity ran into financial trouble and the pic was continually pushed back from the original October 2015 release date.
To be fair, no one anticipated TheCall ringing up the business it generated and Kidnap could surprise with a low double digits gross (probably the most hopeful scenario for it). Yet I’ll predict it could struggle to even reach $5 million. I’ll put it just over that.
Blogger’s Note (08/03): My estimate has been revised down just a bit to $11.6M on eve of release.
Director Kathryn Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal team up for the third time next weekend with Detroit. Their first collaboration resulted in a Best Picture win and Bigelow being the first female to win a gold statue for direction with 2009’s The Hurt Locker, focused on the Iraq War. 2012 follow-up Zero Dark Thirty also received a Best Pic nod, among other nominations, as it zeroed in on the hunt for Osama Bin Laden.
Their third feature goes back 50 years in history to the Algiers Hotel Incident and race riots in the title city. John Boyega of Star Wars fame stars alongside Will Poulter, Algee Smith, Jason Mitchell, John Krasinski, and Anthony Mackie. Early critical reaction has been strong – it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes currently. Oscar attention could potentially come its way as well.
Detroit seems like the kind of title where solid word of mouth could allow it to play well throughout the month of August , where competition isn’t overly fierce. The strong reviews could propel it to a high teens gross under a best scenario out of the gate. However, I think it’s more likely it will debut in the low double digits to low teens with hopes of smaller drop-offs in follow-up weekends.
Blogger’s Note (08/03): Welp, the revising down continues on the eve of debut to $18.4 million
Blogger’s Note II (07/31): My estimate for The Dark Tower continues to trend downward. I am now revising down to $24.4 million for opening weekend.
Blogger’s Note (07/28): Just a day after posting my $34.6 million estimate, I’m beginning to sour a bit on the opening weekend. I’m revising down to $27.6 million and we’ll see if it continues to trend downward.
Stephen King’s acclaimed book series finally gets the big screen treatment when Nikolaj Arcel’s The Dark Tower debuts next weekend. The author eight novels combining elements of science fiction, horror, action, fantasy, and western themes first hit bookshelves 35 years ago, so there’s been decades of anticipation from its fans to see its adaptation. Idris Elba headlines as hero The Gunslinger with Matthew McConaughey as The Man in Black. Costars include Tom Taylor, Claudia Kim, Jackie Earle Haley, and Dennis Haysbert.
The release of The Dark Tower represents a bit of Stephen King renaissance at the box office as the long-awaited It opens in September. It’s been a while since two high-profile projects from the legendary writer have been teed up for release. A planned follow-up TV series (with Elba) is planned for later. Tower was produced for a reported $60 million (a relatively modest budget as summer flicks go).
It will be fascinating to see just how devoted the fan base is for this. As I see it, the opening could range anywhere from mid 20s to maybe mid 40s on the high end. Even though it’s not a totally fair comp (though genre mash-up elements are in common), I could see this debuting similarly to 2011’s Cowboys & Aliens, which started with $36 million at the same late July/early August time frame. From that same summer six years ago, Super 8 and its $35 million opening could be the same ballpark as well.
The Dark Tower opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million (REVISED PREDICTION)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 