Blogger’s Note (09/05/18): I am revising my estimate up from $38.4 million to $45.4 million
The Conjuring Cinematic Universe rolls along when The Nun debuts next weekend. The fifth entry in the highly successful Warner Bros horror franchise is a prequel to all four previous pictures. Our title character was first glimpsed at in 2016’s The Conjuring 2. Corin Hardy directs a cast that includes Demian Bichir, Taissa Farmiga (sister of Conjuring star Vera), Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons.
Just a couple of weeks back, The Nun received some unexpected publicity when YouTube pulled one of its trailers off the site due to its frightening jump scares. If anything, that notoriety could help peak the curiosity of moviegoers. Not that it necessarily needs it. The opening weekend grosses of this series have been remarkably consistent. Here’s the rundown:
The Conjuring – $41.8 million
Annabelle – $37.1 million
The Conjuring 2 – $40.4 million
Annabelle: Creation – $35 million
I don’t see any compelling reason why The Nun would change that range. You could say it seems pretty (ahem) black and white to me. I’ll predict this scary sister act hits high 30s.
The summer box office season officially draws to a close this Labor Day weekend and there’s five new releases to consider. They are the Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama Operation Finale, John Cho’s computer based thriller Searching, family sci-fi tale Kin, Gothic horror tale The Little Stranger and Mexican import Ya Veremos. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I don’t have any of them breaking the $10 million mark for the four-day holiday weekend. I have Finale faring the best, mostly due to the fact that it’s slated to open on about 700 more screens than the critically hailed Searching.
My $3.9 million estimate for Kin, $2.6 million projection for Stranger and $2.5 million forecast for Veremos leave them outside of the top five. And even my $7.1 million prediction for Searching leaves it on the outside looking in.
The Labor Day weekend typically means that holdovers will experience increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. There is, of course, an extra day of totals to consider so that doesn’t hurt. It is not uncommon to see percentage bumps anywhere from the mid teens to high 20s and I expect that will hold true once again.
That means Crazy Rich Asians should have no trouble at all holding the top spot for the third frame in a row. Giving it an increase in the low to mid twenties seems plausible and that could it mean hits over $30 million. I suspect The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, and Christopher Robin will also experience solid weekends.
The only holdover that may fall is The Happytime Murders, which had a pretty bad debut over the weekend (more on that below).
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the long Labor Day weekend:
1. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $10 million
4. OperationFinale
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
5. ChristopherRobin
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (August 24-26)
CrazyRichAsians had a magnificent hold in its sophomore weekend to easily remain #1. The comedy dropped just 6%, taking in $24.8 million (blasting past my $16.9 million estimate). The two-week total is $76 million.
TheMeg was second with $12.8 million (I said $11.2 million). The shark tale crossed the century mark and stands at $105 million after three weeks.
TheHappytimeMurders proved American audiences were in no mood for randy puppets. The poorly reviewed pic was third with a putrid $9.5 million, falling under my $13.8 million forecast.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $8 million (ahead of my $6.8 million take). It’s edging close to $200 million with $193 million total.
Mile22 rounded out the top five with $6.3 million (I said $7.5 million). The Mark Wahlberg action thriller has made a middling $25 million in its two weeks of release.
Finally, robot dog flick A.X.L. opened meekly in 10th position with $2.7 million. It did manage to edge past my $2.1 million prediction.
Debuting this weekend in theaters is the gothic horror tale TheLittleStranger, based on a 2009 novel by Sarah Waters. The pic is director Lenny Abrahamson’s follow-up to his Oscar nominated Room. The cast includes Domhnall Gleeson, Ruth Wilson, Will Poulter, and Charlotte Rampling.
Stranger rolls out on a rather low 475 screens over the long holiday weekend. That severely limits its prospects at the box office. I’ll estimate of the five new releases this weekend, this will place fourth just ahead of YaVeremos.
TheLittleStranger opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
It’s become a common occurrence over the past few Labor Day weekends to see a high-profile picture from our neighbor to the south released stateside. 2018 is no different as Mexican drama Ya Veremos opens domestically Friday. The pic comes from director Pedro Pablo Ibarra with a cast including Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo, and Emiliano Aramayo.
A number of these selections are from distributor Pantelion Films, which is behind this. Veremos has performed well in Mexico. The release pattern has been extremely consistent for these imports – a debut with a theater count of 300-400 screens. This is slated to premiere on 350.
The results, however, have been varied. 2013’s Instructions Not Included provided the high mark with $10.3 million. Nothing has matched that since. 2014’s Cantinflas took in $3.5 million. 2016’s No Manches Frida made $4.6 million. Last summer’s Hazlo Como Hombre managed just $1.4 million. All of these grosses were for the four-day holiday frame.
Recent trends would indicate Veremos is more likely to come in on the low-end of that scale and not hit the surprising earnings of Instructions five years ago.
Ya Veremos opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Labor Day weekend brings the sci-fi pic Kin, which hopes to bring in a family and teen audience that have had plenty to see this summer. It’s not based on a YA novel, but it could pass as such an adaptation. That may not be great news as the genre seems to be dwindling.
Jonathan and Josh Baker direct with a cast including Jack Reynor, Myles Truitt, Zoe Kravitz, Carrie Coon, Dennis Quaid, and James Franco as a crime lord (the guy is certainly eclectic).
The Lionsgate release seems to be flying well under the radar and the Labor Day release date doesn’t inspire much confidence in its prospects. This is typically a slow time of year on the box office calendar and I’m getting a bit of a DarkestMinds vibe here.
That means I foresee a holiday debut in the mid single digits.
Kin opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Historical thriller Operation Finale sets out in theaters this Labor Day weekend, hoping to bring in an adult audience looking for very late summer entertainment. The tale of Jewish Nazi hunters comes from director Chris Weitz, whose eclectic filmography includes About a Boy and The Twilight Saga: New Moon. Oscar Isaac, Ben Kingsley, Melanie Laurent, Haley Lu Richardson, Lior Raz, Nick Kroll, and Joe Alwyn star.
Unlike most holiday frames, Labor Day is not known for huge debuts and Finale could struggle to find a decent start. While the Star Wars franchise has certainly given Isaac exposure, nothing has shown he can open a picture.
I’ll predict a high single digits gross over the long weekend. That means it should hit double digits when factoring in the Wednesday opening.
Operation Finale opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
This weekend at the box office features a battle between two very different comedies for the #1 spot: the second weekend of critically acclaimed rom com CrazyRichAsians and the debut of dirty puppet pic TheHappytimeMurders. We also have the family science fiction tale A.X.L. opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
If Asians falls in the mid 30s range, it might manage to edge out Melissa McCarthy’s Murders. My estimates indicate this should be the first weekend since early February where no picture makes over $20 million as the summer season slows down.
TheMeg should fall to third place with action flicks Mile22 and Mission: Impossible – Fallout in a race for the 4 spot (I give Mile an edge).
As for A.X.L., I’m not expecting much at all and my tiny $2.1 million forecast leaves it outside the top 5. And with that, here’s those top five projections for the weekend:
1. CrazyRichAsians
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
2. TheHappytimeMurders
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. TheMeg
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Mile 22
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (August 17-19)
Riding a wave of positive buzz and anticipation from its bestseller source material, Crazy Rich Asians had a terrific start in first place with $26.5 million for the weekend (topping my $22.5 million prediction). When factoring in its Wednesday debut, the critically praised comedy has made $35.2 million and that’s a bit above my call of $33.4 million.
The Meg dropped to second with $21.1 million, in line with my $20.3 million projection for $83 million so far.
Mark Wahlberg’s Mile 22 was a disappointment with a third place premiere at $13.7 million. I was a touch higher at $16.7 million. This definitely ranks on the lower end of the star’s action debuts.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $11 million) for $181 million overall. The sixth franchise entry stands a decent shot at surpassing the $215 million made by Mission: Impossible II and becoming the series all-time domestic earner.
Alpha performed better than I figured with a fifth place start at $10.3 million. I was way lower at $5.2 million.
Christopher Robin was sixth with $8.8 million (I said $7.4 million) for $66 million. The Disney feature could come close to $100 million when all is said and done, but it may fall a little short.
BlacKkKlansman was 7th in its sophomore outing with $7.3 million (I said $7.1 million) for a total of $23 million.
Next weekend, moviegoers are treated to a biopic of the legendary and reclusive Guns N’ Roses lead singer with the release of A.X.L.! OK… not so much. On the contrary, this family adventure is a tale of a young man and his robot dog. Oliver Daly directs based on a short film he made and funds were reached for a feature film through a Kickstarter campaign. Alex Neustaedter, Becky G, Dominic Rains, and Thomas Jane are among the cast.
I must admit I’ve been rather surprised by the amount of TV ads I’ve seen for this. That said, with a pretty low theater count around 1700, I don’t expect much here at all. Family audiences have had plenty to feast on this summer and I don’t see them having much of an appetite for this.
A.X.L. opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
For my The Happytime Murders prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (08/23/18): Today’s estimated screen count of just 1100 for Searching has caused to revise down from $9.4 million to $7.1 million
Following a buzz worthy premiere earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival, thriller Searching opens wide next weekend. The pic casts John Cho (Harold from Harold and Kumar, Sulu from the Star Trek franchise) as a father whose daughter goes missing. What makes this unique is that the film takes place almost entirely on a computer screen as he frantically attempts to locate her. Debra Messing, Michelle La, and Sara Sohn costar. Aneesh Chaganty directs.
The film opens in limited release on August 24th in just 9 theaters, with a nationwide expansion over Labor Day weekend. When Searching played at Sundance in January, it did so to solid critical notices and it stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. I could see this having a decent start (considering its low budget) in the high double digits low double digits with the possibility of legging out solidly based on word-of-mouth.
Searching opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note (08/18/18): I am revising my estimate from $17.8 million down to $13.8 million
The Happytime Murders drops in theaters next weekend with a very simple concept to draw moviegoers in: Puppets Gone Wild! The very R-rated comic crime tale imagines a world where humans and puppets coexist. It comes from Brian Henson (son of Jim), who made the more family oriented Muppet pics The Muppet Christmas Carol and Muppet Treasure Island in the 1990s. Melissa McCarthy headlines the human cast along with Elizabeth Banks, Maya Rudolph, and Joel McHale. Bill Barretta is the puppet detective who used to work with McCarthy’s character.
The film’s tagline – “All Sesame, No Street” – resulted in a lawsuit from the makers of the long-running PBS program. As you could correctly guess from the red-band trailers, they had no involvement in this particular project.
Happytime should rise or fall at the box office based on audience curiosity in its gimmick. Finding reasonable comparisons for this is a tricky proposition. Two summers ago, the animated Sausage Party rode a wave of good buzz to a fantastic $34 million debut. However, this doesn’t seem to be generating similar chatter as of yet. If we want to go back in dirty puppet history, Team America: World Police earned just over $12 million in the fall of 2004.
The participation of McCarthy could help, but this is not the type of material her fans may typically rush to see. I’ll say Murders manages a debut in the mid to high teens and its word-of-mouth (positive or negative) will determine what transpires in the weeks following.
The Happytime Murders opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million
