America’s foremost jackass is back in theaters next weekend when Johnny Knoxville headlines Action Point. The comedy casts him as the owner of a low-grade amusement park. Expect many of the patented stunts that the man has become synonymous with. Chris Pontius costars with Tim Kirkby directing.
It’s been nearly five years since Knoxville was featured in a starring vehicle – 2013’s Bad Grandpa. That was a huge hit with a $32 million debut and $102 million overall domestic haul. And of course, the Jackass franchise brought in big grosses for Paramount (this film’s distributor) as well.
That said, it’s been quite a while since Mr. Knoxville’s brand of humor was printing money. One wonders if the audience for it has grown up a bit and moved on. I also have a feeling that Action Point doesn’t quite have the selling point marketability that Grandpa possessed.
Add all that up and I believe this may struggle to even reach double digits out of the gate by not bringing in the teenage crowd it wishes to cater to.
Action Point opening weekend prediction: $6.6 million
It’s Memorial Day weekend at the box office and Solo: A Star Wars Story is the solo new release as it looks to dominate the holiday charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I believe Solo will manage to just top $150 million for the four-day frame and that would make it the largest Memorial Day opening of all time (topping the $139 million earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007).
The holiday weekend often means small declines for holdovers and I believe that will hold true such titles as Avengers: Infinity War, Book Club, and Life of the Party. That may not apply to Deadpool 2, which will certainly be in second place. The Ryan Reynolds sequel seems likely to lose over 50% of its opening crowd – perhaps even 55% or so.
And with that, my take on the weekend’s top five (keep in mind these are Friday to Monday estimates):
1. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $151.3 million
2. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $55.2 million
3. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Book Club
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
5. Life of the Party
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (May 18-20)
Deadpool 2 easily dominated the weekend, but did so with a little less dollars than most projections include mine. The superhero sequel earned $125.5 million, under my $137.4 million prediction. That’s good for the second biggest R rated debut of all time behind… Deadpool from 2016. Considering its reported $110 million budget, that’s still a hefty haul even though many figured it might manage to just top the original.
Avengers: Infinity War dropped to second after three weeks at #1 with $29.4 million (in line with my $30.8 million projection) for $595 million overall.
Book Club experienced a nice debut in third with $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.3 million estimate. I look for this to have perhaps the smallest drop of any feature over Memorial Day.
Life of the Party was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $8.4 million) for $30 million total.
Breaking In rounded out the top five at $6.8 million (I said $7.2 million) for $29 million in its two weeks.
Finally, family feature Show Dogs failed to bring in its audience with just $6 million. I was higher at $7.9 million.
The second stand-alone feature set in a galaxy far, far away – Solo: AStarWarsStory roars into multiplexes this Memorial Day Weekend. Alden Ehrenreich takes over the role of a young Han Solo in the part made iconic by Harrison Ford. Costars include Woody Harrelson, Emilia Clarke, Donald Glover as Lando, Thandie Newton, Paul Bettany, and, of course, Chewbacca. Ron Howard serves behind the camera in a move that garnered much press attention when he took over from Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. They exited the project after creative differences with Disney after months on the job.
Reviews out today are mostly positive with 73% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, that’s the lowest meter of the four entries since the vaunted franchise came back in 2015. Our first spin-off, 2016’s RogueOne, debuted with $155 million one year after the record-breaking grosses of StarWars: TheForceAwakens. These offshoots are not expected to reach the heights of the traditional “episodes”. Solo does certainly have the added bonus of returning a beloved character, even with the natural speculation and some cynicism about another actor playing him.
One thing seems fairly certain: Solo should have no trouble breaking the current Memorial Day record held by 2007’s PiratesoftheCaribbean: AtWorld’sEnd which made $139.8 million for its start. Given the extra day of grosses, Han and Chewie could exceed that by over $10 million.
Solo: AStarWarsStory opening weekend prediction: $151.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Four titles enter the marketplace this weekend with the big-ticket item being Deadpool 2. It should easily achieve the third highest opening so far in 2018 (behind MCU juggernauts Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther) and knock Infinity from its three-week perch atop the charts. We also have comedy Book Club, family pic Show Dogs, and documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As stated, the return of Ryan Reynolds and his very R-rated superhero should dominate. I have the sequel to the 2016 mega-hit performing slightly over its predecessor, which stormed out of the gate with $132 million in February of 2016. Avengers should drop to second and lose around 50% of its audience.
Book Club, if it manages to reach my high single digits forecast, could place third if Life of the Party loses 50% or more of its audience (which I believe it will). Show Dogs has some sleeper potential, but my projection puts it in a potential dogfight with the second weekend of Breaking In.
The Pope documentary is debuting on a low 350 screens. While it should have a solid per screen average, my $2.3 estimate puts it towards the lower end of the top ten. And with that, here are my top 6 projections for the weekend:
1. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $137.4 million
2. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $30.8 million
3. Book Club
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
4. Life of the Party
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Show Dogs
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
6. Breaking In
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (May 11-13)
Avengers: Infinity War continued its domination in weekend #3 with $62 million (a bit more than my $59.7 million prediction) to bring its gargantuan tally to $548 million. That’s the fourth highest third frame of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther). The MCU phenomenon is in 8th place already on the all-time domestic earners list.
Melissa McCarthy experienced a box office disappointment as Life of the Party was second with $17.8 million, under my $19.4 million forecast. It’s her lowest opener so far for a starring vehicle ever since she broke out in 2011 with Bridesmaids.
The Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In performed well, debuting in third with $17.6 million. My prediction? $17.6 million! The pic is likely to experience a pretty hefty drop this weekend.
Overboard held up quite impressively in its sophomore frame (perhaps thanks to a Mother’s Day bump) with $9.8 million, easily outpacing my $6.2 million projection. The comedy has earned $30 million so far.
A Quiet Place rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was a tad lower at $5.3 million) to bring its total gross to $169 million.
Focus Features and acclaimed filmmaker Wim Wenders team up for the documentary PopeFrancis: AManofHisWord next weekend. The pic focuses on the 266th and current pontiff and looks to bring in stateside Catholics for a high per screen average.
It could certainly be rather successful in doing so. The doc is slated to be released on a rather low 350 theaters, but it could certainly achieve the third largest per screen gross behind Deadpool2 and Avengers: InfinityWar.
If this manages to do around what RBG (the documentary about United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg) did this past weekend on an individual theater basis, that would put Pope at a bit over $2 million.
PopeFrancis: AManofHisWord opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Global Road Entertainment is hoping family audiences turn out for next weekend’s Show Dogs. The live-action comedy exists in a world where humans and canines communicate verbally. That means the voice-over cast includes Ludacris, Jordin Sparks, RuPaul, Gabriel Iglesias, Shaquille O’Neal, Stanley Tucci, and Alan Cumming alongside real cast members Will Arnett and Natasha Lyonne. The pic is directed by Raja Gosnell, who has experience with pup flicks including Scooby-Doo and Beverly Hills Chihuahua (as well as the first two Smurfs entries).
Show Dogs doesn’t exactly seem to be generating much heat, but there isn’t much out there for kids who won’t be allowed to see Deadpool 2 (which opens against it). Family pics can always outdo projections, but I’ll say this falls a under double digits for its premiere. That would put it far from best in show and towards the bottom end of the top 5 for its weekend.
Show Dogs opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
Paramount is hoping to bring in an older female audience next Friday with the release of BookClub. The comedy casts the quartet of Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, and Mary Steenburgen as members of a reading group who become influenced by their latest selection, FiftyShadesofGrey. The pic marks the directorial debut of Bill Holderman and costars include Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, Richard Dreyfuss, Craig T. Nelson, and Alicia Silverstone.
As mentioned, this Club hopes to capitalize on an often underserved market. Yet there is at least one other title appealing to females as LifeoftheParty will be in its sophomore frame and possibly still in lower double digits.
I’ll estimate this manages high single digits to low double digits itself out of the gate as it’ll likely hope for smallish declines in subsequent frames.
BookClub opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
The nation’s favorite R rated superhero is back in theaters next weekend when Deadpool 2 debuts. Arriving two years plus after the original became a massive hit, Ryan Reynolds returns in the title role with David Leitch (director of Atomic Blonde) taking over the behind the camera duties from Tim Miller. Costars include Monica Baccarin, Julian Dennison, Zazie Beetz, T.J. Miller, Brianna Hildebrand, Leslie Uggams, and the summer’s comic book villain of choice, Josh Brolin as Cable (coming off his acclaimed work as Thanos in Avengers: Infinity War).
In February of 2016, Deadpool took in an astonishing $132 million and grossed $363 million overall domestically. That still stands as the largest R rated debut of all time and it sits only behind The Passion of the Christ for all-time earners with that rating. There is a legitimate possibility that part two manages to exceed that opening weekend haul.
I’ll project that Deadpool 2 manages to just do that with a debut approaching $140 million.
Deadpool 2 opening weekend prediction: $137.4 million
Two new titles look to place second and third this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War should continue to dominate the charts. They are the Melissa McCarthy back to college comedy Life of the Party and Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that pair here:
My high teens estimate for Party indeed puts it in the runner-up position with Breaking in mid to high teens for third. I’ve got Avengers grossing just under $60 million in its third frame to easily stay #1 with holdovers Overboard and AQuietPlace rounding out the top five.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Avengers: InfinityWar
Predicted Gross: $59.7 million
2. LifeoftheParty
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
3. BreakingIn
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
4. Overboard
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. AQuietPlace
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
BoxOfficeResults (May4–6)
Avengers: InfinityWar continued its chart domination by scoring the second best second weekend ever at $114.7 million, a bit under my $118.1 million forecast. The Marvel juggernaut has amassed $453 million thus far.
Overboard had a healthy opening in second with $14.7 million, topping my $11.8 million estimate. I look for the comedy to have a rather hefty drop this coming weekend.
AQuietPlace was third at $7.7 million (I said $7.3 million) to bring its tally to $160 million.
IFeelPretty was fourth with $5 million (I was close at $5.2 million) for $37 million overall.
Rampage was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It grossed $4.6 million and has made $84 million total.
Tully with Charlize Theron opened meekly in sixth with $3.2 million. I gave it a bit too much credit and had it at $5 million.
Finally, BadSamaritan bombed in 11th place with just $1.7 million, a tad below my $2.1 million projection.
Blogger’s Note (05/10/18): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $13.6 million to $17.6 million
Gabrielle Union headlines the thriller Breaking In, out next weekend. Will the movie be able to generate any box office heat or will audiences have a cavalier attitude towards it? The actress plays a single mom caught up in a home invasion situation with her kids. James McTeigue, best known for making 2006’s V for Vendetta, is behind the camera. Costars include Ajiona Alexus, Christa Miller, Jason George, Billy Burke, and Richard Cabral.
The Universal release is currently slated to open on approximately 2300 screens. While it seems to be flying a bit under the radar, it could have enough appeal to female and African-American audiences to post a double digits debut. I’ll predict it manages to do that, which should place it third behind the third weekend of Avengers: Infinity War and the premiere of Melissa McCarthy’s Life of the Party.
Breaking In opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
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