Upstart distributor Aviron Pictures hopes to bring in young romantics this weekend with After. Based on a 2014 novel by Anna Todd, the college set drama casts relative unknowns Hero Fiennes-Tiffin (nephew of Ralph) and Josephine Langford. Jenny Gage directs with costars including Selma Blair, Peter Gallagher, and Jennifer Beals.
As mentioned, Aviron is a new player in the business. Their first effort, 2017 Halle Berry thriller Kidnap, exceeded expectations a bit. Their previous release before this – Serenity – was an embarrassing flop.
This may fall somewhere in the middle. Its approximate 2000 screens is the lowest of the four new releases this weekend. It might be lucky to hit $5 million and probably won’t. That’s nothing special at all, but its budget has to be fairly small.
Borrowing its plot themes from comedies such as Big and 13Goingon30, the Will Packer produced pic Little debuts next weekend. Regina Hall stars as an overworked tech mogul who’s transformed into a teen version of herself. That 13-year-old self is played by Marsai Martin (of TV’s “Black-ish”) and the young actress holds an executive producer credit here (making her the youngest person ever to do so). Tina Gordon directs and Issa Rae, Justin Hartley, and Rachel Dratch costar.
Mr. Packer’s previous studio efforts like GirlsTrip have turned into profitable ventures. Little hopes to bring in a sizable African-American audience and the chances of this over performing are real.
A gross in the mid to high teens is certainly feasible, but I’ll project low teens is where this ends up.
Blogger’s Note (04/11): On the eve of its premiere, revising this down from $13.2M to $11.7M
The studio Laika is back with their brand of critically acclaimed animated films next weekend with MissingLink. The stop-motion adventure follows an explorer tracking a Bigfoot with Hugh Jackman voicing the explorer and Zach Galifianakis as the creature. Other recognizable faces behind the mic include Zoe Saldana, Emma Thompson, Stephen Fry, Timothy Olyphant, and Matt Lucas. Chris Butler, who made the company’s 2012 effort ParaNorman directs.
All four Laika titles in the past decade have grossed between $12-$17 million for their starts. On the high-end, there’s 2014’s TheBoxtrolls with just over $17 million. On the low-end is 2016’s KuboandtheTwoStrings with $12.6 million. I see no reason why Link wouldn’t fall in that same range.
Reviews have been positive as this currently stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of the new releases out next weekend, it actually opens widest on approximately 3500 screens (more than Hellboy).
I don’t believe this will top Boxtrolls, but a premiere between $13-$14 million is certainly possible.
MissingLink opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million
Rebooting itself 15 years after its half demon anti-hero first appeared in theaters, Hellboy hits theaters next weekend. Based on the Dark Horse Comics that started in the early 90s, David Harbour of “Stranger Things” takes over the title role from Ron Perlman. Costars include Milla Jovovich, Ian McShane, Sasha Lane, Daniel Dae Kim, and Thomas Haden Church. Neil Marshall, best known for making horror pic TheDescent, directs after Guillermo del Toro handled the first two installments.
In 2004, the original film adaptation took in $23 million in its opening frame and $59 million total domestically. It took on cult status quickly and that catapulted 2008’s HellboyII: TheGoldenArmy to a $34 million start with $75 million overall.
Those numbers are nowhere in the MCU or DCEU range as of late. While certainly different in tone, Hellboy arrives during the second weekend of Shazam!, which should still be performing well and a month after CaptainMarvel. The chances of this, which seems to be lacking buzz, getting lost in the shuffle is real.
I’ll predict that even though it arrives more than a decade since we’ve seen this character, Hellboy will experience the lowest premiere of the trio.
Blogger’s Note (04/04): On the eve of their premieres, some changes:
Shazam! from $59.5 million to $52.5 million
PetSematary from $28.7 million to $34.7 million
April has sprung at the box office and we have three new wide releases hitting multiplexes: critically hailed DC superhero pic Shazam!, Stephen King adapted horror remake PetSematary, and civil rights drama TheBestofEnemies with Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m on the higher end of the range with Shazam!, believing it could reach awfully close to $60 million or over and easily bolting into the top spot. Sematary could also exceed my estimate, but I’ll go high 20s for a second place showing. As for Enemies, I’m not as optimistic and my $5.9 million prediction would put it at #6.
Holdovers Dumbo and Us could be in line for drops close to 50% in their second and third respective weekends with CaptainMarvel rounding out the top five.
And with that, my view of the frame ahead:
1. Shazam!
Predicted Gross: $52.5 million
2. PetSematary
Predicted Gross: $34.7 million
3. Dumbo
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. Us
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
5. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (March29–31)
Tim Burton’s live action version of Disney’s Dumbo had no trouble hitting #1, but did so with rather mediocre results. Coming off mixed reviews, the elephant tale managed $45.9 million. That’s quite lower than my $55.6 million projection. That’s far less than other recent Mouse Factory renderings of their animated classics.
Us fell to second with a mid 50s dip to $33.2 million. I forecasted more at $38.4 million. Yet the $20 million budgeted horror flick stands at $127 million in just ten days.
CaptainMarvel was third with $20.6 million (I said $20.2 million) for $353 million total and $400 million in its sights.
The success story of the weekend was pro-life Pure Flix drama Unplanned, which easily exceeded expectations in fourth with $6.3 million. I was considerably lower at $2.6 million.
FiveFeetApart was fifth with $6.1 million (I said $5.9 million). Tally is $35 million.
With Unplanned reaching the top five, that put WonderPark in sixth with $5 million – on target with my $4.9 million prediction. The animated feature has earned $37 million.
HotelMumbai expanded to nearly 1000 screens and was eighth with $3.1 million compared to my $3.4 million.
Finally, Matthew McConaughey had yet another box office wipeout as TheBeachBum was tenth with $1.7 million (I said $1.6 million).
Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell headline true life drama TheBestofEnemies, out this Friday. Set in 1971, the film casts Henson as a civil rights activist tasked with co-chairing a community meeting with Rockwell’s KKK leader. Robin Bissell directs with a supporting cast including Babou Ceesay, Anne Heche, Wes Bentley, and Bruce McGill.
Enemies hopes to bring in a similar audience that caused GreenBook to nearly make $90 million domestically. However, this doesn’t have Oscar buzz and while its two leads are certainly highly respected, neither can open a movie.
Considering that, I see $10 million as too high a bar for this. Mid single digits is more likely.
TheBestofEnemies opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million
Blogger’s Note (04/04): On the eve of its premiere, I’m upping my estimate from $28.7 million to $34.7 million
Arriving in theaters 30 years following the movie it’s remaking, PetSematary hopes to bring scary flick fans to the multiplexes next Friday. The horror pic is based on Stephen King’s acclaimed 1983 bestseller. Kevin Kolsch and Dennis Widmyer co-direct (making their first high-profile release) with a cast including Jason Clarke, Amy Seimetz, and John Lithgow.
It doesn’t hurt that this is the first King adaptation since, well, 2017’s massive success It. That film certainly upped the legendary author’s brand and should help this bring in some cash. To add to that, reviews for the 2019 version are an improvement over the 1989 original (91% vs. 50% on Rotten Tomatoes).
Competition is a factor. While Shazam! is of a different genre, the two features could compete for similar audience members. That superhero tale will almost certainly come out on top and likely double the gross of this. There’s also Us, which will be in its third weekend after a huge debut.
Even with those potential impediments, PetSematary could approach $30 million for a healthy start.
PetSematary opening weekend prediction: $34.7 million
Blogger’s Note (04/04): On the eve of its premiere, my estimate has changed from $59.5 million to $52.5 million
The DC Extended Universe adds another cinematic hero to its stable with the release of Shazam! next weekend. The tale of a teenager who morphs into a superhero was first introduced in comic book pages nearly 80 years ago. David F. Sandberg directs with Zachary Levi as the title character and Asher Angel as his younger self. Costars include Mark Strong, Jack Dylan Grazer, Djimon Hounsou, and Grace Fulton.
Said to heartfelt and funny, Shazam! is already a winner with critics and sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score. DC, while not quite up to MCU levels, has been hitting its stride lately with mega performers like WonderWoman and Aquaman. There were previews of this that surprisingly managed to outdo what Jason Momoa’s creation did late last year. However, that was during the hustle and bustle of the holiday season.
The range expected is $40-$60 million. I have a hunch its good word of mouth will propel it to the upper reaches of those expectations. It’s feasible the range could be surpassed, but I’ll say high 50s.
Blogger’s Note (03/27): My Dumbo prediction has dropped from $65.6 million to $55.6 million.
After Us rocked the box office this past weekend, a quartet of newcomers open nationwide on Friday: Tim Burton’s live action rendering of Disney’s 1941 animated classic Dumbo, true life action thriller HotelMumbai, Pure Flix pro-life drama Unplanned, and Matthew McConaughey stoner comedy TheBeachBum. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Dumbo should have little trouble flying into the winners circle. I have it slated for a mid 60s opening. That’s far from what the Mouse Factory achieved with the non drawn versions of BeautyandtheBeast and TheJungleBook and more in line with 2015’s Cinderella.
The remainder of the premieres may all have trouble reaching the top five. Mumbai could fare the best after a decent limited release start, even though it’s on less screens than Unplanned or TheBeachBum. I have those titles hitting just $2.6 million and $1.6 million, respectively. I’m a bit more optimistic with Mumbai, putting it at $3.4 million.
A big question this weekend is how far Us will drop after its fantastic performance out of the gate (more on that below). It stands to reason that this will be more front loaded than Jordan Peele’s GetOut, which rode a wave of water cooler chatter. I foresee a dip in the mid to possibly high 40s range.
CaptainMarvel, FiveFeetApart, and WonderPark could populate the rest of the high-five, assuming none of the new trio not named Dumbo manages to exceed expectations.
Here’s my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Dumbo
Predicted Gross: $55.6 million
2. Us
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
3. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $20.2 million
4. FiveFeetApart
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. WonderPark
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (March22–24)
As mentioned, acclaimed horror flick Us dominated the charts and proved that its maker Jordan Peele is a valuable commodity at the moment. Taking in $71.1 million (well past my $58.8 million projection), Us is the largest live action feature based on original material since 2009’s Avatar. It doubled the $33 million brought in by Peele’s breakout GetOut. With a meager $20 million budget, it’s safe to assume the champagne bottles are popping over at Universal.
CaptainMarvel dropped to second after two weeks on top with $34.2 million, just under my $36.4 million estimate. The MCU effort has amassed $320 million thus far.
WonderPark was third with $8.7 million. I was a little higher at $10.4 million. The two-week tally is $29 million.
FiveFeetApart was close behind in fourth with $8.5 million (I said $7.7 million) and $26 million overall. I expect Park and Feet to flip positions this weekend.
HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld rounded out the top five with $6.5 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. Its total is $145 million.
The true life action thriller HotelMumbai expands nationwide this weekend after its limited engagement over this past one. Recounting the 2008 Taj Mahal Palace Hotel terror attacks in India, the film marks the directorial debut of Anthony Maras. Dev Patel and Armie Hammer headline with costars including Anupam Kher and Jason Isaacs.
Mumbai was originally screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Over the weekend, it managed a per theater average of over $20,000 on four screens.
That’s pretty decent, but that average should dip significantly as it’s scheduled to hit about 800 this weekend. The number is lower than other new wide releases like Unplanned and TheBeachBum. However, Mumbai could top the grosses of those titles – making it the biggest earning newcomer that isn’t named Dumbo.
HotelMumbai opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
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