After a stellar premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, Rocketman plays its way into theaters next weekend. The long planned biopic of legendary piano man Elton John starring Taron Egerton comes on the heels of similar genre entry and smash hit BohemianRhapsody. It even shares a director in Dexter Fletcher, who filled in on the Freddie Mercury tale after Bryan Singer was dropped from the project. Costars here include Jamie Bell, Richard Madden, and Bryce Dallas Howard.
The film’s French Riviera rollout resulted in praise for Egerton. An Oscar nod for him (especially after Rami Malek won in 2018 as Mercury) is certainly feasible. Some reviews were mixed, but this currently holds an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score.
As mentioned, the easiest comp is Rhapsody, which debuted to an amazing $51 million in November with $216 million total domestically. However, while buzz is strong here, it likely won’t reach those heights in the busy summer season. I still think mid to high 30s can be reached and that would have Elton’s story still standing tall.
Rocketman opening weekend prediction: $36.1 million
For my Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters prediction, click here:
Continuing its own cinematic universe that will lead to two monstrous creatures facing off next spring, Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters stomps into multiplexes next weekend. The reported $200 million dollar film is a sequel to 2014’s Godzilla reboot from Gareth Edwards. Michael Dougherty takes over directorial duties with a cast including Kyle Chandler, Vera Farmiga, Millie Bobby Brown of “Stranger Things” fame, Bradley Whitford, Charles Dance, Thomas Middleditch, and O’Shea Jackson Jr. Returnees from part one are Sally Hawkins, David Strathairn, and Ken Watanabe.
As mentioned, Monsters is part of a larger Warner Bros scheme to get the giant green nuclear waste creation to grapple with the world’s best known giant ape. Godzillavs. Kong will hit screens in March of 2020. Five summers ago, Godzilla debuted to a cool $91 million on its way to $200 million domestically. In 2017, Kong: SkullIsland made $61 million out of the gate and $168 million total.
I would anticipate we’ll see Kong money and not Godzilla cash here and perhaps a bit less. Mid to high 50s seems probable with overseas earnings expected to be anything but toxic.
Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters opening weekend prediction: $58.7 million
It’s Memorial Day at the box office with Disney looking to dominate the four-day holiday weekend with their live-action rendering of Aladdin starring Will Smith. We also have the superhero horror flick Brightburn and critically acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
There’s little doubt that the Fresh Prince’s genie will open at #1. How much it makes is very much in question. My mid 70s forecast is toward the lower end of estimates. While it’s always risky to underestimate the vaunted Mouse Factory marketing machine, they’ve already had one under performer weeks ago with Dumbo and reaction to this particular remake seems mixed.
Slots 2-4 are likely to be held by holdovers and that starts with JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum after its dynamite debut (more on that below). Its gross is probably a bit front loaded, so a dip over 50% wouldn’t be surprising.
On the other hand, Avengers: Endgame should follow the path of other MCU titles that premiered in late April or early May with a minor drop in the 20s. I have PokemonDetectivePikachu slated for a mid 30s subtraction.
As for the newcomers, both have breakout potential but I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on either exceeding expectations. Brightburn should fare a bit better than Booksmart, if for no other reason than its higher screen count.
And with that, a top 6 take on my Friday to Monday predictions:
1. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $74.8 million
2. JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $27 million
3. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. PokemonDetectivePikachu
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
5. Brightburn
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
6. Booksmart
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (May17–19)
JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum sped to a terrific start and zoomed past most projections, including mine. The Keanu Reeves sequel made $56.8 million compared to my $45.8 million estimate. That sets the franchise record by over $25 million and is good for Mr. Reeves second largest opening ever behind TheMatrixReloaded.
Avengers: Endgame dropped to second after three weeks on top with $29.9 million, in line with my $28.5 million prediction. The massive tally is at $771 million.
In its sophomore outing, PokemonDetectivePikachu was third with $25.1 million. I was right there at $25.2 million as it approaches the century mark with $94 million.
ADog’sJourney flopped with just $8 million in fourth compared to my $11.8 million projection. That’s less than half of what predecessor ADog’sPurpose achieved. Woof.
TheHustle rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $7.1 million) for $23 million overall.
Finally, YA romance TheSunIsAlsoaStar had a dim start in eighth with just $2.5 million. I went higher at $5.5 million.
The best known actress involved with Booksmart is making her directorial debut and is not in front of the camera. Yet the pic is riding a wave of critical kudos since its premiere at South by Southwest in March. The comedy is centered on two teenage girls and their last day of high school. Olivia Wilde makes that aforementioned first turn in the captain’s chair. Kaitlyn Dever and Beanie Feldstein (best known as Saoirse Ronan’s bestie in LadyBird) are the two graduates. Costars include Jessica Williams, Will Forte, Lisa Kudrow, and Jason Sudeikis (Wilde’s hubby).
Booksmart stands at a super fresh 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could still face hurdles when it opens over the long Memorial Day weekend. Opening on approximately 2300 screens, I’m skeptical as to its awareness factor among general audiences. This could be a slow builder if word-of-mouth takes off or become a cult hit following the theatrical release.
I’ll say a debut in the upper single digits is where this starts out at.
Booksmart opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
In a year filled with superhero tales, Brightburn adds a horror element when it opens over Memorial Day weekend. The low budget pic is a Gunn family affair with James (director of the GuardiansoftheGalaxy franchise) producing with a screenplay from his brothers Mark and Brian. David Yarovesky directs. The nifty trailer suggests a Superman style origin tale if Clark Kent turned out to be a homicidal maniac. Elizabeth Banks, David Denman, Jackson A. Dunn, Matt Jones, and Meredith Hagner star.
As mentioned, Brightburn comes with a tiny price tag estimated at $7 million. Therefore it should have no trouble turning a tidy profit. That said, a gross in the teens or above could be wishful thinking for Sony Pictures. The marketing campaign hasn’t been near as robust as other titles featuring superheroes (good or evil) and the film isn’t based on known source material.
I’ll say the forecasts of high single digits to low double digits for its four-day holiday premiere is where this lands.
Brightburn opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
The second of four live-action renderings of Disney animated features in 2019, Aladdin is wishing for bountiful box office returns over Memorial Day weekend. Directed by Guy Ritchie, the musical fantasy adventure casts Will Smith as the genie in a role made iconic in 1992 by Robin Williams. In the title role is Mena Massoud with Naomi Scott as Princess Jasmine. Costars include Marwan Kenzari, Nasim Pedrad, and Billy Magnussen.
Reaction to the teaser was mixed at best. The full trailer was better received. The film follows this spring’s Dumbo, which was a bit of a disappointment with a $45 million opening gross. TheLionKing will follow later this summer with Maleficent: MistressofEvil in the year’s fourth quarter.
While there’s little doubt Aladdin will rule the holiday frame, it’s got a wide range of possibilities. The Mouse Factory’s largest start for one of its reimaginings was 2017’s BeautyandtheBeast, which roared to $174 million. Don’t expect anywhere near that kind of number. Some forecasts are putting this in the $100 million four-day ballpark, but I have serious doubts about that.
I could actually see this performing similarly to Mr. Smith’s other Memorial Day opener – 2012’s MIB3, which earned $69 million. For a Disney comp, there’s 2015’s Cinderella with its $67 million haul. Given that there’s an extra day involved, I’ll bump Aladdin up slightly.
Aladdin opening weekend prediction: $74.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note (05/15): My Parabellum prediction has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million
The three-week reign of Avengers: Endgame atop the charts should end this weekend at the hands of Keanu Reeves as his action threequel John Wick: Chapter3 – Parabellum is unveiled. We also have canine sequel ADog’sJourney and YA romance TheSunIsAlsoaStar out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Mr. Wick appears poised for a healthy start in first. The 2014 original made $14 million out of the gate but became a cult favorite shortly thereafter. Its 2017 follow-up brought in $30 million. Some have Parabellum in the mid 40s range, but I’m thinking high 30s is more probable. That should still be more than enough to ensure it the #1 slot.
A mid 50s dip should drop Endgame to second with PokemonDetectivePikachu in third. I have ADog’sJourney tapped for just under teens (not matching the $18 million earned by predecessor ADog’sPurpose).
My $5.5 million forecast for TheSunIsAlsoaStar likely leaves it in sixth with TheHustle rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $45.8 million
2. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
3. PokemonDetectivePikachu
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
4. ADog’sJourney
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
5. TheHustle
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
BoxOfficeResults (May10–12)
It was a three-peat for the gargantuan superhero squad as Avengers: Endgame took in $63.2 million (below my $71.2 million take). The film has amassed a jaw-dropping $723 million total. That’s the fourth heftiest third weekend in box office history and it’s climbed to third all-time domestically in overall gross, with Avatar well in its sights.
PokemonDetectivePikachu got a silver medal with a decent $54.3 million, under my $64.8 million projection. The Ryan Reynolds voiced pic fell within the range of expectations, albeit on the lower end.
TheHustle with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson was third and opened right in line with estimates at $13 million (I said $13.4 million). A weak B- CinemaScore grade indicates audiences weren’t impressed.
Fourth place belonged to TheIntruder as it had a nice hold in weekend #2. I incorrectly had it outside the top five, but it made $7.1 million for a two-week haul of $21 million.
LongShot was in the five spot with $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) and $19 million total.
The Diane Keaton cheerleading comedy Poms was a dud in sixth with just $5.3 million. I reached higher at $8.7 million.
Tolkien was another disappointment in ninth with a measly $2.2 million. I went with $3.1 million.
The genre of young adult romances has its share of misses at the box office recently. TheSunIsAlsoaStar will try to reverse that next weekend and that could be tough. Yara Shahidi (best known for TV’s “Black-ish”) is a bright college student who connects with exchange student Charles Melton (of Netflix’s “Riverdale”). Complications arise when her family faces deportation. Costars include Jake Choi, John Leguizamo, and Hill Harper.
Sun is directed by Ry Russo-Young. She’s already had one YA genre flop in the form of BeforeIFall, which opened in 2017 to just $4.6 million. The pic is based on a novel by Nicola Yoon, who also wrote Everything, Everything. Its film adaptation two years ago performed better and debuted to just over $11 million.
I don’t see this reaching the heights of the latter or going quite as low as the former. Mid to possibly upper single digits appears likely.
TheSunIsAlsoaStar opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
For my JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum prediction, click here:
ADog’sJourney finds its way to theaters next weekend and it comes without the controversy that greeted its predecessor. In 2017, ADog’sPurpose got in some water when video surfaced of an animal being mistreated on set. The film managed to turn into a decent sized hit with an opening just north of $18 million and $64 eventual domestic gross. That’s enough to warrant a sequel and Journey is also based on a book by W. Bruce Cameron. Gail Mancuso takes over directorial duties from Lasse Hallstrom. Josh Gad is back voicing the lead canine and costars include Dennis Quaid, Marg Helgenberger, and Betty Gilpin.
I’m not confident that Journey will follow the same box office path as Purpose did with its high teens range. I do think it’ll manage to top 2019’s ADog’sWayHome, which premiered to $11.2 million. A gross just under the teens seems like the right call.
ADog’sJourney opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million
For my JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (05/15): My estimate has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million
Keanu Reeves is back in theaters next weekend as America’s favorite dog loving hitman when JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum debuts. The action thriller hopes to build upon the momentum of 2017’s highly successful sequel. Chad Stahelski returns as director with familiar series faces including Laurence Fishburne, Lance Reddick, Ian McShane, and John Leguizamo. New stars in our third edition include Halle Berry, Mark Dacascos, Asia Kate Dillon, and Anjelica Huston.
Mr. Reeves found himself in an unexpected new franchise five years ago when JohnWick opened to $14 million with a $43 million overall domestic gross. While that might not seem like enough to automatically warrant a follow-up, the pic achieved critical kudos and cult status when it arrived on demand. Three years later, Chapter2 made $30 million for its start and $92 million total.
Parabellum has a solid shot at topping the opening weekend of its predecessor, which also garnered glowing reviews. I’ll say mid to high 30s is where this ends up.
JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million
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