A darkly comedic game of hide and seek is unveiled Wednesday in theaters next week in ReadyorNot. The pic stars Margot Robbie… actually it’s Samara Weaving (niece of Hugo). She’s a doppelgänger for Robbie and she plays a bride to be in a filthy rich family who subject her to the aforementioned game where they hunt her down. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett direct. Costars include Mark O’Brien, Adam Brody, Henry Czerny, and Andie MacDowell.
Not was readied for a premiere in July at the Fantasia International Film Festival and critical reaction was strong. It currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m not at all confident this will manage to break out with a wide audience. A late August release date doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. This could struggle to reach double digits over its five-day rollout and that means mid single digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame is what I’m thinking.
ReadyorNot opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The brothers Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s brand of faith based features have had an impressive road to box office success. They hope to continue that trend next weekend with Overcomer. The sports themed drama is Alex’s directorial follow-up to 2015’s WarRoom, which shocked prognosticators with its eventual earnings. Stephen serves as co-writer for the screenplay with Alex in the starring role and costars including Priscilla Shirer and Shari Rigby.
Prior to WarRoom, the Kendricks Fireproof and Courageous both topped $30 million domestically. Room took them to a new level with an $11 million start as it legged out impressively to $67 million.
If Overcomer were to hit double digits, it won’t be as surprising as their previous hit. I’ll say it misses that mark, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility.
Overcomer opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
In 2913, OlympusHasFallen surprised box office prognosticators with a gross of $98 million stateside, eclipsing the earnings of the similarly themed and higher profile WhiteHouseDown from that same year. The Gerard Butler action thriller has now spawned two sequels with AngelHasFallen rising in cinemas next weekend.
Butler’s Secret Service agent now finds himself framed for the attempted assassination of Morgan Freeman’s character. Ric Roman Waugh, best known for directing Dwayne Johnson in Snitch, is behind the camera. Costars include Jada Pinkett Smith, Lance Reddick, Tim Blake Nelson, Piper Perabo, Danny Huston, and Nick Nolte.
As mentioned, Olympus was a sleeper hit that soared out of the gate with $30 million. 2016 follow-up LondonHasFallen couldn’t match those numbers with a $21 million start and $62 million eventual tally.
My expectation is that the third edition will continue the downward trend. Mid to possibly high teens is likely. In the dog days of August, that might be enough for an unremarkable #1 debut.
AngelHasFallen opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
For the second weekend in a row, we have a quintet of new titles populating the marketplace. And like those previous five pictures, all could struggle to break the $20 million mark with some failing to reach double digits. We have the animated sequel TheAngryBirdsMovie2, raunchy preteen comedy GoodBoys, shark sequel 47MetersDown: Uncaged, British musical dramedy BlindedbytheLight, and Richard Linklater directed mystery comedy Where’dYouGo, Bernadette with Cate Blanchett all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The Birds follow-up debuts tomorrow in theaters. Even with that early start, I believe the Friday to Sunday traditional gross should be enough for it to fly into the top spot. That said, I have it well under the $33 million debut of its 2016 predecessor.
The earnings of Boys and Meters might be similar, but my projection puts the former ahead. There could be a legit battle between these two newcomers with the third frame of Hobbs & Shaw, the sophomore frame of ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, and the fifth weekend of TheLionKing. In other words, the placing of the top five could be extremely fluid.
I’m anticipating mid single digits for both Blinded and Bernadette, leaving them well outside the top five and behind DoraandtheLostCityofGold and OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
So while this column is normally estimating the top half of the top 10, I’m doubling it given all the new product:
1. TheAngryBirdsMovie2
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Hobbs & Shaw
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. 47MetersDown: Uncaged
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
6. ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark
Predicted Gross: $10 million
7. DoraandtheLostCityofGold
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
8. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
9. BlindedbytheLight
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
10. Where’dYouGo, Bernadette
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (August9–11)
Hobbs&Shaw parked in first for the second weekend with $25.2 million, a smidge below my $27.5 million forecast. The two week tally stands at $108 million.
In a weekend where I assumed DoraandtheLostCityofGold would fare best among the five newcomers, it was ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark achieving that status. It exceeded most expectations at $20.9 million, well beyond my $14.3 million take.
TheLionKing was third with $20.2 million. My prediction? $20.2 million! It now is Disney’s largest earning live action title at $473 million.
Aforementioned Dora was fourth with a middling $17.4 million, falling below my projection of $19.7 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood hit the century mark and rounded out the top five. Earning $11.6 million (I said $11.3 million), the total is a cool $100 million.
TheArtofRacingintheRain premiered in sixth with a meh $8.1 million. Good news for me for the second time as I said $8.1 million.
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish learned audiences wouldn’t turn out for them in a crime thriller. The poorly reviewed TheKitchen was seventh with just $5.5 million compared to my more generous $8.3 million prediction.
Finally, BrianBanks opened in 11th with $2.1 million. I was close at $2.3 million.
Acclaimed director Richard Linklater brings his adaptation of a 2012 bestseller to the big screen with Where’dYouGo, Bernadette. Based on Maria Semple’s comedic mystery, the pic casts two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett in the title role of an agoraphobic wife and mother who disappears. The story finds her daughter (Emma Nelson) tracking her whereabouts. Costars include Billy Crudup, Kristin Wiig, Judy Greer, Laurence Fishburne, Steve Zahn, and Megan Mullaly.
It’s been five years since Linklater’s Boyhood bowed to critical praise and multiple Academy nominations. Since then, his efforts EverybodyWantsSome!! and LastFlagFlying have underwhelmed at the box office. The late summer release date here is curious as Bernadette is foregoing the festival circuit that often builds buzz for titles such as this.
Without that kind of chatter, the film will rely on fans of its source material. That could be a challenge for it to break out of mid single digits territory.
Where’dYouGo, Bernadette opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
For my TheAngryBirdsMovie2 prediction, click here:
The British import BlindedbytheLight illuminates theaters this coming weekend after receiving glowing reviews from its debut earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival. From director Gurinder Chadha, who made the breakout hit BendItLikeBeckham, the dramedy focuses on a teenager whose life is transformed by the music of Bruce Springsteen. Viveik Kalra is said teenager and the supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Rob Brydon, and Nell Williams.
As mentioned, Blinded was shown on the fest circuit and a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score followed. The pic would love to follow in the footsteps of this summer’s sleeper hit Yesterday, which rode its Beatles musical connection to impressive box office grosses. The ability for this to over perform is possible, but the likely scenario is a mid single digits premiere while it hopes to develop legs over subsequent weekends.
BlindedbytheLight opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my TheAngryBirdsMovie2 prediction, click here:
Two years after the original turned into an unanticipated summer success, shark sequel 47MetersDown: Uncaged is unlocked in theaters next weekend. While director Johannes Roberts is back behind the camera, a whole new cast of potential chum is present. That includes Sophie Nelisse, Corinne Foxx (daughter of Jamie), Brianne Tju, Sistine Stallone (daughter of Sly), John Corbett, and Nia Long. Original star Mandy Moore is off somewhere and hopefully dry.
In June 2017, the first Meters had an interesting journey to the big screen. A measly $5 million production, it was originally slated to be a VOD only release. After it was acquired by Entertainment Studios and perhaps assisted by Moore’s exposure in the hit series “This Is Us”, it was put into multiplexes and had an $11.2 million debut. Doubling its price tag out of the gate, it legged out quite well for its genre and ended up at $44 million.
The follow-up won’t be able to surprise everyone and come out of nowhere. Expectations are that it should at least match the start of its predecessor. I’ll project that it falls short of that by around a million.
47MetersDown: Uncaged opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
For my TheAngryBirdsMovie2 prediction, click here:
GoodBoys is looking to become this summer’s Superbad when the raunchy comedy debuts next weekend. Marking the directorial debut of Gene Stupnitsky, the film centers on three preteens doing R rated shenanigans. The kids are played by Jacob Tremblay of Room and Wonder fame, as well as unknowns Keith L. Williams and Brady Noon. Costars include Will Forte, Molly Gordon, and Lil Rel Howery.
Keeping with the Superbad theme, Boys comes from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg’s production company, who wrote that 2007 hit. The pic was first unveiled in March at the South by Southwest Festival to positive reaction. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 78%.
That said, the buzz for this doesn’t seem as high. The chance for this to over perform is there. Yet I’m skeptical this earns half of the $33 million achieved by Superbad, which premiered over the same late summer weekend a dozen years ago. In fact, its debut might be in the preteens just like its stars.
GoodBoys opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
For my TheAngryBirdsMovie2 prediction, click here:
Those animated and ill tempered fowls based on the video game you were obsessed with on your smart phone are back next week with TheAngryBirdsMovie2. Our first Birds flew into theaters in the summer of 2016 and the sequel returns the vocal stylings of Jason Sudeikis, Josh Gad, Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Bill Hader, and Peter Dinklage. Newcomers include Leslie Jones, Rachel Bloom, Awkwafina, Sterling K. Brown, and Eugenio Derbez. Thurop Van Orman makes his directorial debut.
Three years ago, Birds kicked off to a solid $38 million. Unlike many other animated offerings, it didn’t leg out particularly well with a final gross of $107 million. Surprisingly, critical reaction to this follow-up is stronger than what transpired before. This stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes compared to 44% for its predecessor.
That said, I don’t see the sequel outdoing part 1. It opens on a Tuesday – perhaps in an effort to nab more kid business before schools start. A premiere of mid to high teens to over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame and low to possibly mid 20s for the six day is where I’m at.
TheAngryBirdsMovie2 opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Note (08/07): My ScaryStories prediction has risen from $10.7 million to $14.3 million
After several weeks of one giant blockbuster hopeful debuting and having the weekend to itself, a quintet of mid tier titles open in this second weekend of August. We have the kid friendly DoraandtheLostCityofGold based on the Nickelodeon series, PG-13 horror flick ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, Melissa McCarthy/Tiffany Haddish crime thriller TheKitchen, dog tale TheArtofRacingintheRain, and wrongful imprisonment drama BrianBanks all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Some weekends, it’s fairly easy to project the order of the top five. This isn’t one of them. A couple of things seem highly likely. After a decent start that was still on the bottom end of expectations, Hobbs&Shaw should manage to repeat in first place. I will say a drop of over 50% is where I see it landing in the sophomore frame.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold seems poised to have to biggest premiere of the five newbies. However, my high teens projection puts it in third behind TheLionKing.
I have ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, TheKitchen, and TheArtofRacingintheRain all in the high single digits to low double digits range and all behind the third weekend of OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
As for BrianBanks, its lack of promotion and lowly 1500 theater count means my $2.3 million prediction means it shouldn’t even compete for the top five.
So on this weekend of multiple new releases, my top seven take:
1. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $27.5 million
2. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $20.2 million
3. DoraandtheLostCityofGold
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million
4. ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
5. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
6. TheKitchen
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
7. TheArtofRacingintheRain
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (August2–4)
FastandFurious spin-off Hobbs&Shaw cruised over holdover competition as anticipated, but it couldn’t match the starting earnings of the last several traditional franchise entries. It took in $60 million, under my take of $72.6 million.
TheLionKing was second after two weeks of dominance with $38.5 million, right on pace with my $38.7 million projection. The massive total stands at $431 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was third in weekend #2 with $20 million, in line with my $20.7 million prediction. The two week haul is $78 million.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome took fourth with $7.9 million (I said $7.1 million) for $360 million overall.
ToyStory4 rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I was slightly lower with $6.6 million) for a take of $410 million.
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