Blogger’s Note (09/16): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down from $6.4 million to $4.5M
Open Road Films is hoping that moviegoers stop, drop everything and help open up Copshop to solid numbers when it debuts September 17th. The action thriller from Joe Carnahan is headlined by Gerard Butler. Costars include Frank Grillo and Alexis Louder.
The pic will essentially rely solely on Butler’s star power. He’s often found his niche in the genre. This includes the trilogy where something (be it Olympus, London or Angel) has fallen. There were also low to mid teens starts for Den of Thieves and Geostorm. Butler’s recent Greenland did well on VOD services. On the other hand, 2018’s Hunter Killer only achieved $6.6 million out of the gate.
Butler has shown the ability to get rather generic seeming titles to decent debuts. Copshop hitting double digits wouldn’t be a huge surprise, but I’m thinking a debut more in the Hunter Killer range is the right call.
In the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas: I was way off! I’m speaking of the marvelous performance of Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which smashed the Labor Day weekend all-time record. We’ll get to that in a second. The major release this weekend is James Wan’s latest horror offering Malignant. My detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
There’s arguably been an over saturation in the market lately for scary pics. Malignant doesn’t seem to have much heat, but I have to give the reminder that this genre often over performs. I’ll still go with under $10 million and that would be good for second place.
Back to Shang-Chi. The acclaimed 25th MCU entry claimed the second highest COVID era debut (barely behind the other Marvel premiere from 2021 – Black Widow). Scarlett Johansson’s stand-alone title fell a steep 68% in its sophomore frame. I don’t foresee that occurring with Shang-Chi. With an A Cinemascore grade and it not being available on Disney Plus, a mid 50s dip seems more likely as it could foreseeably be #1 for the entire month of September.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Malignant
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
3. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Jungle Cruise
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (September 3-6)
Mark it down as one of my incorrect forecasts ever. I thought the challenges facing Shang-Chi (COVID and the fact that big movies don’t really come out at this time of year) meant a $58.9 million four-day gross. Whoops. Try $94.6 million! Its $75 million traditional three-day take, as mentioned, is just after the $80 million that Widow made. Simply put, this is another testament that theatrical only can still be a moneymaking venture and that’s music to industry ears. To put it in perspective, the previous Labor Day record was 2007’s Halloween at $30 million. Rings tripled that and then some.
On the flip side, I was a little too generous to the holdovers. Candyman earned $12.5 million in its sophomore frame (a bit under my $13.4 million projection). The horror sequel/reboot, after its better than expected start, is up to $41 million.
Free Guy was third with $11.2 million (I said $14.2 million) and it’s made $94 million as it hurls towards the century mark.
PAW Patrol: The Movie sat in the four spot with $5.3 million compared to my $6.7 million prediction. Tally is $31 million.
Rounding out the top five was Jungle Cruise with $5.1 million. Once again, I went with more at $6.9 million. It has sailed off with $106 million.
**Blogger’s Note (09/09): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising from my prediction down from $10.2 million to $7.6 million**
The drawing power of director James Wan and a horror audience that’s had plenty to watch lately will be put to the test on September 10th with Malignant. The fright fest comes from a genre filmmaker who kickstarted the Saw, Conjuring, and Insidious franchises. Lately he’s been dabbling in other series as he helmed Furious 7 and Aquaman. The cast includes Annabelle Wallis (who starred in the Conjuring spin-off Annabelle), Maddie Hasson, George Young, and Mckenna Grace.
Originally slated for late summer 2020 before its COVID pause, the Warner Bros property will premiere simultaneously on HBO Max. As mentioned, moviegoers have been inundated with scare tactics in the last few months. This includes sequels to A Quiet Place, Escape Room and Don’t Breathe, a third Conjuring, another Purge, and the new Candyman.
Malignant has a couple of disadvantages. It’s not based on a known property (though one could argue Wan’s original forays into his now well-known franchises weren’t either). The other is the over saturation of the market. My biggest concern is a lack of buzz and its availability at home. That said, horror fans continually demonstrate their willingness to show up.
The previous Conjuring experience also hit HBO when it landed at multiplexes and it took in $24 million. I have a feeling the prognosis for Malignant is that it may earn about half of that figure and maybe a little less.
Malignant opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
The Labor Day weekend brings us the 25th MCU entry with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. It should have no trouble dominating the charts over the holiday, but it could also hit the lowest mark (or close to it) as far as openings go for the vaunted franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Every single Marvel entry has debuted in first place and this will certainly be no different. The Incredible Hulk holds the distinction of smallest start with $55 million. With the extra Monday factored in, my high 50s projection gets Rings just past it. My estimate would also give it the lowest traditional Friday to Sunday beginning.
Could my take be underestimating its potential? Absolutely. Reviews are solid and word-of-mouth should be strong. However, it may have a slight disadvantage due to unfamiliarity of its characters. We are in strange territory for Disney’s most valuable series. Labor Day is usually a time when studios do not release would-be blockbusters. Prior to this, the highest earner premiering picture over the weekend was 2007’s Halloween at $30 million. I wrote all about that here:
One thing that is rather consistent over Labor Day is that the summer holdovers tend to hold steady. In fact, many increase their haul from the previous late August frame. I expect this to hold true for the family fare – Free Guy, PAW Patrol: The Movie, and Jungle Cruise.
Candyman had a sweet opening (more on that below) and I don’t anticipate it losing 50% of its audience or more like most horror titles do. That is primarily due to the holiday. It could fall to the low teens. If so, it could find itself in a battle for #2 with Free Guy and Ryan Reynolds may have the slight edge. The four spot could be close between Patrol and Cruise.
With all that, here’s how I have the Friday to Monday Labor Day box office shaking out:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $58.9 million
2. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Jungle Cruise
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
5. PAW Patrol: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (August 27-29)
Moviegoers were ready to call out the name Candyman again as the sequel/reboot opened at the most generous end of prognoses at $22 million. That bests my $17.3 million forecast. Nearly hitting its $25 million budget out of the gate, Universal has something to buzz about today. It also made history as Nia DaCosta is the first black woman to direct a #1 debuting feature.
Free Guy was runner-up after two weeks on top with $13.1 million, right on pace with my $13 million prediction. The total is $78 million as it zooms toward the century mark.
PAW Patrol: The Movie was third with $6.6 million (I said $6.1 million) for a decent two-week tally of $24 million.
Jungle Cruise took fourth with $5 million compared to my $4.6 million take. The Disney adventure is perched at $100 million and it’s no accident that the studio announced its sequel today.
Don’t Breathe 2 rounded out the top five with $2.8 million, on target with my $2.7 million projection. The horror sequel has made $24 million overall.
A new group of Marvel cinematic heroes and villains arrives onscreen over Labor Day weekend with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. The 25th MCU feature (and second of four in 2021) is out in theaters only with Disney choosing not to make it available simultaneously on their streaming service. I have already written a bit about the challenges it faces. They include releasing it during a holiday frame not known for unveiling blockbusters, as well as ongoing COVID related hindrances. You can read that post here:
Destin Daniel Cretton, who’s best known for dramas with Captain Marvel Brie Larson like The Glass Castle and Just Mercy, directs. The cast features Simu Liu, Awkwafina, Meng’er Zhang, Fala Chen, Florian Munteanu, Benedict Wong, Michelle Yeoh, and Tony Leung. You can also expect some villains that have populated previous MCU flicks.
Early word-of-mouth should help. Rings currently sports a strong 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That said, there is the possibility that the non-traditional release date and other factors threaten to make this the lowest MCU premiere of the lot. It also doesn’t help that there’s really no familiar characters to draw some viewers out. The same could be said for Guardians of the Galaxy and Black Panther, but they had sizzling buzz that this needs to generate in a hurry (the solid reviews might help).
Shang-Chi will have a posted four-day gross due to the Labor Day holiday (where 2007’s Halloween holds the largest ever debut at $30 million). There’s little question that this should easily eclipse that record. In MCU terms, 2008’s The Incredible Hulk experienced the smallest start at $55 million. That’s followed by 2015’s Ant-Man with $57 million.
The extra day of reported earnings may help. I don’t see this getting anywhere near what Black Widow did ($80 million) at the start of summer. My feeling is that Rings, in its Friday to Sunday financial report, may hold the distinction of having the smallest gross in the MCU franchise. Yet the Monday could push it toward a mid to high 50s take with $60M+ certainly as a possibility.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings opening weekend prediction: $58.9 million
The month of August closes with the return of a familiar name in horror… just don’t say it five times. Nearly three decades after the original buzzed into theaters, the sequel/reboot Candyman is the sole new release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I’m going with a mid to high teens estimate with the caveat that this genre can over perform. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this fly a bit higher, but I’ll stick with my guns for now. That should be enough for a #1 start. If it doesn’t meet expectations, that could allow Free Guy to spend a third frame atop the charts after its remarkable hold this past weekend (more on that below).
With no new product, holdovers should all slide a spot. That means the top five should be bookended by fright fests with family fare in the middle. Here’s how I think it will look:
1. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
2. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $13 million
3. PAW Patrol: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. Jungle Cruise
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Don’t Breathe 2
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
Box Office Results (August 20-22)
PAW Patrol: The Movie managed to bring the kiddos out and slightly outdid most forecasts. The new films catering to adults were all dogs.
Yet the headline of the weekend belonged to Free Guy as it remained in first with $18.5 million. That’s considerably better than my $13.9 million prediction. The Ryan Reynolds sci-fi comedy displayed the best sophomore hold we’ve seen all summer with just a 35% drop. We have become accustomed to seeing most titles plummet 50% or far more. That brings Guy‘s take to an impressive $58 million and its inclusion in the $100 million club seems assured. I wrote more about its earnings over the weekend here:
Paw Patrol: The Movie easily took second position with $13.1 million. The big screen rendering of the Nickelodeon show surpassed my $10.8 million projection.
Jungle Cruise was third with $6.3 million (I said $5.9 million). With $92 million overall, it’ll hit nine digits in short order.
The rest of the top five were returnees that I didn’t have slated to be there. Don’t Breathe 2 was fourth with $5 million. The fall of just over 50% in its second weekend is quite good for a horror flick and it’s made $19 million. Respect rounded out the top five with $3.7 million for a tally of $15 million.
And now for the trio of debuts that largely went unnoticed. The Protege was seventh with $2.9 million. I went with $4.7 million. In 8th place was The Night House with $2.8 million. I was a tad more generous at $3.1 million. And most embarrassingly, Hugh Jackman’s Reminiscence was the huge dud (considering its budget) as it placed 9th at $1.9 million. I said $6.8 million. Clearly audiences weren’t buying what was being sold with all three of these offerings.
Quick! Tell me everything you remember about the 2009 rom com All About Steve? Search that memory! My guess is not much. It stars Sandra Bullock and Bradley Cooper and it’s certainly not what most moviegoers remember about the two actors from that particular year. To be fair, they both hit career milestones 12 years ago. Bullock won an Oscar for The Blind Side. Cooper became a household name that summer in The Hangover.
All About Steve won some awards as well. Not the kind that gets bragged about. The pic took home two Golden Raspberry trophies for Worst On Screen Couple and for Bullock as Worst Actress. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 6%. And it’s largely a forgotten blip on the filmographies of two accomplished performers.
Yet it does currently stand at #10 when it comes to biggest Labor Day openings in box office history. That’s because Labor Day weekend has traditionally not been a time for studios to release hoped for blockbusters. In normal times, that frame is generally seen as one in which the summer season is winding down and the fall projects are gearing up. It’s kind of an in between time.
The distinction for highest premiere over the holiday belongs to 2007’s Halloween (the reboot by Rob Zombie). It made $30 million out of the gate.
When you get down to Steve in tenth, the take is a mere $14 million for the four-day gross. There’s other pics you might have conveniently forgot about on that list. How about the ping pong comedy Balls of Fury with George Lopez and Christopher Walken? It’s #8 (also with $14 million). There’s the musical doc One Direction: This Is Us which is perched in fourth with $18 million. Jeepers Creepers and its sequel both make appearances.
Why the Labor Day history lesson? Because Disney is about to go against the grain and release their newest Marvel Cinematic Universe product in what has usually been a quiet time.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings opens September 3rd and hopes to blow away Halloween‘s current record. It should have no problem doing just that. However, it also risks having the designation of being the MCU’s smallest opener. The current mark belongs to The Incredible Hulk at $55 million.
Current projections have Rings doing about $50 million for the Friday to Monday frame. It may certainly exceed that and early word-of-mouth is encouraging (my official prediction will be up on Tuesday or Wednesday). Unlike Black Widow, the house that Mickey built is not making Rings simultaneously available for a $30 fee on Disney Plus.
There’s a case to be made that the 25th MCU flick faces challenges no other has. Black Widow had the advantage of a well-known character at the center. That helped propel the stand-alone entry to an $80 million bow as COVID continues to be a hindrance to earning power. Shang-Chi introduces a whole new group of players to this multi-billion cinematic universe. That didn’t hurt Guardians of the Galaxy or Black Panther, but they both had sizzling buzz leading to their unveilings.
So what will be talked about more in two weeks? The nearly certain record Rings will accomplish with its record Labor Day haul? Or the possibility that it sets a low mark for its practically never miss franchise? One thing is clear: Machete will drop down to spot 10 in all-time Labor Day beginnings. And there will nothing to see in the top ten about All About Steve.
Who can take the final weekend of August and turn it into a #1 opening? Oh, the Candyman can and likely will when it debuts August 27th. The long in development horror sequel arrives nearly 30 years after the 1992 original scared audiences into avoiding saying its name five times in a row. Nia DaCosta directs from a script cowritten by none other than Jordan Peele. With its source material based on a short story from Clive Barker, it stars Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Teyonah Parris, Nathan Stewart-Jarrett, and Colman Domingo. THE OG Candyman Tony Todd makes an appearance as does Vanessa Estelle Williams from the ’92 tale.
Billed as a direct follow-up to the first and therefore ignoring two sequels that followed in the mid to late 90s, Candyman was first slated for release in June of 2020 before its series of COVID delays. It arrives during a summer where horror fans have had plenty of options and most of them were sequels. I don’t see this generating anywhere near what, say, A Quiet Place Part II or The Conjuring: The Devil Made Do It achieved. I do think if Don’t Breathe 2 managed just over $10 million, this should get beyond that.
Candyman could be poised to capitalize on the familiarity of its title character. That could propel it to a start as high as $20 million. My hunch is that it falls lower in the mid to high teens range (with the caveat that this genre is known to over perform).
And now I dare call its name for a potentially deadly fifth time and say…
Candyman opening weekend prediction: $17.3 million
Blogger’s Note (08/18): I am revising my PAW Patrol: The Movie estimate up from $7.9M to $10.8M.
The dog days of summer continues with four new offerings in the marketplace and they could all fall short of the second weekend of Free Guy with Ryan Reynolds. Speaking of dogs, we have PAW Patrol: The Movie as well as three more adult oriented offerings: Hugh Jackman’s sci-fi thriller Reminiscence, action flick The Protege with Michael Keaton, Maggie Q, and Samuel L. Jackson and horror pic The Night House. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I don’t have any of the features from the fresh quartet (not a sequel in the bunch!) topping $10 million. That means Free Guy, after a better than anticipated bow, should manage to remain #1 in its sophomore outing. I’m assuming it will dip in the low to mid 50s like Jungle Cruise did a couple of weeks back.
As for those newcomers, the one I’m most conflicted about is PAW Patrol: The Movie. It certainly has a built-in fan base of youngsters who may drag their parents to see it. Rather unexpectedly, it’s generating quite decent reviews. However, my hunch is that some families may wait for it to be on the small screen and I’m projecting third place.
That’s behind Reminiscence which could approach double digits. Jackman’s latest is also available on HBO Max. It will be competing for eyeballs with The Protege, which I have pegged for mid single digits (if anything, I think it could go lower). In fact, it could be in a battle for fifth with Jungle Cruise in its fourth weekend.
The Night House comes at the tale end of a season packed with horror titles and I believe it’s bound to get lost in the shuffle. My meager $3.1 million estimate leaves it well outside the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
2. PAW Patrol: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
3. Reminiscence
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Jungle Cruise
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. The Protege
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (August 13-15)
Friday the 13th wasn’t so unlucky for Ryan Reynolds and Free Guy. The Fox (and therefore Disney) property opened on the higher end of forecasts with $28.3 million, topping my $21.3 million estimate. With an A Cinemascore grade, audiences liked what they saw and it sounds as if a sequel will happen. The near $30 million start might have been called slightly disappointing in different times. All things considered, it’s rather strong.
Horror sequel (I’ve been saying that a lot lately) Don’t Breathe 2 debuted with $10.6 million, just under my $11.2 million take. That’s miles away from the $26 million that the 2016 predecessor took in, but generally in line with most predictions. At a cost of just $15 million, it should turn a nice profit for Sony Pictures.
Jungle Cruise was third in its third weekend with $9.1 million – right on pace with my $8.9 million estimate. The Disney adventure is at $82 million with $100 million in its sights.
The Aretha Franklin biopic Respect with Jennifer Hudson also hit its anticipated mark in fourth with $8.8 million. That’s a tad ahead of my $8.5 million call. Reviews were only so-so though its lead could be on her way to a Best Actress nomination.
And, finally, the bad news for The Suicide Squad continued. Following a disastrous opening, the reboot/sequel plunged an equally disturbing 71% to fifth with $7.4 million. I was more optimistic at $10.1 million. The ten-day tally is a lowly $42 million.
There has been no shortage of horror offering for audiences this summer (almost all sequels), but Searchlight is hoping the masses turn out for another with The Night House. Directed by David Bruckner, the ghost story premiered all the way in January 2020 at the Sundance Film Festival. It stars Rebecca Hall, Sarah Goldberg, Evan Jonigkeit, Stacy Martin, and Vondie Curtis-Hall.
Reviews from Sundance were encouraging and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, the recent glut of genre titles (Don’t Breathe 2 is out the weekend before with Candyman the frame after) could cause this to get lost in the shuffle.
Opening on a fairly low 2000 screens, prospects for The Night House look dim. I foresee this debuting between $2-4 million and foreclosing in theaters quickly.
The Night House opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 