Tag: box office predictions

May 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.

Book Club: The Next Chapter hopes to blossom on Mother’s Day weekend while Knights of the Zodiac (based on a Japanese manga) also touches down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Book Club: The Next Chapter Box Office Prediction
Knights of the Zodiac Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will hold the #1 spot. Yet it will do so after a disappointing start (more on that below). The big question is how far it falls in the sophomore frame. Vol. 2 in 2017 eased a reasonable 55% after a strong $146 million start. With an A Cinemascore grade, the third iteration could see a similar drop. A low to mid 50s decline would put it in the mid 50s.

Book Club: The Next Chapter, a sequel to the 2018 rom com, looks to reach $12-14 million. That would be in range with its predecessor and the recent 80 for Brady. This particular holiday could it get there, but I’ll go a tad under. That could put it in a photo finish with the sixth weekend of The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

As for Zodiac, it’ll hope to make some coin overseas and it’ll need to with a reported $60 million budget. The domestic prospects appear dim and it may not even reach the top 5.

**A quick note about the sci-fi thriller Hypnotic with Ben Affleck. Apparently it’s out this weekend and there’s been approximately zero promotion or buzz. This appears to be getting dumped. I haven’t done an official prediction and it might be fortunate to make $1 million (I’m curious to see a screen count).

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1 . Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $54.8 million

2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

3. Book Club: The Next Chapter

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

4. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

5. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (May 5-7)

It wasn’t exactly a festive start to summer for Disney as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 got off to a shaky start. With $118.4 million, it came in a bit under my $125.3 million take and significantly below the $146 million from Vol. 2. This is the second under performer of 2023 as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also failed to match overall expectations.

After spending April in the top spot, The Super Mario Bros. Movie finally dropped to second with $18.5 million, a steeper plunge than my projection of $23.8 million. Nevertheless its five-week total is an astonishing $518 million.

Evil Dead Rise was third in weekend 3 with $5.8 million, in line with my $6.2 million forecast. It’s up to a solid $54 million.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $4 million). Despite laudatory reviews, the coming-of-age dramedy isn’t reaching audiences and the ten-day tally is a mere $12 million.

Rom com fans tuned out Love Again which began with only $2.3 million, not even matching my $3.2 million call.

Finally, John Wick: Chapter 4 was sixth in its seventh frame with $2.3 million. I said $3.5 million and the fourth shoot-em-up saga has amassed $180 million.

That does it for now, folks! You can listen to me talk all things box office via Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you catch your podcasts. Until next time…

Knights of the Zodiac Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.

Based on a Japanese manga series that began in the mid 1980s, Knights of the Zodiac hits theaters this Friday. The fantasy adventure is directed by Tomek Bagiński and stars Mackenyu, son of martial arts legend Sonny Chiba. Costars include Famke Janssen, Madison Iseman, Diego Tinoco, Mark Dacascos, Nick Stahl, and Sean Bean.

With a reported budget of $60 million, Zodiac hopes to make its mark overseas. Its domestic prospects look dim. I haven’t seen an official screen count (and that could alter my projection), but I’d be surprised if this topped $5 million. In fact, it might be lucky to take in half of that.

Knight of the Zodiac opening weekend prediction: $1.2 million

For my Book Club: The Next Chapter prediction, click here:

Book Club: The Next Chapter Box Office Prediction

Book Club: The Next Chapter Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping an older and mostly female audience is kindled by their fond memories of part 1 when Book Club: The Next Chapter opens on May 12th. The sequel to the 2018 rom com features Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, Mary Steenburgen, Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, and Craig T. Nelson reprising their roles. Bill Holderman is back in the director’s seat.

With the action moved to Italy, Chapter seeks to serve a crowd often underserved in the summer season. It’s a formula that paid off handsomely in the same mid-May time frame five years ago. Book Club started with $13.6 million and continued exceeding expectations with small drop-offs in subsequent frames. It ended up earning nearly $70 million domestically and just over $100 million worldwide.

I don’t see any reason why this would fall much under the original in its first weekend. There’s another recent comp in 80 for Brady (also with Fonda) as it premiered with a similar $12.5 million (though it did suffer larger declines afterwards than Club).

I’ll say this debuts right in range with its predecessor. It could go slightly over or under and I’ll pick the latter.

Book Club: The Next Chapter opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million

For my Knights of the Zodiac prediction, click here:

Knights of the Zodiac Box Office Prediction

May 5-7 Box Office Predictions

In recent years, the summer movie season officially kicks off when the MCU releases a tentpole adventure. That’s the case in 2023 with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arriving to end the month long reign of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also have rom dramedy Love Again hoping to attract a female audience. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies can be found here:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction
Love Again Box Office Prediction

Tracking suggests that the third Guardians will fall short of the $146 million opening achieved by its 2017 predecessor, but top the $94 million that the original made way back in 2014. Anything significantly under #2’s start will be considered a letdown and I am projecting a gross $20 million shy of its mark. If that occurs, it would be the second less than anticipated haul for a Marvel pic after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

With a billion bucks in the worldwide bank and after four weeks in first, The Super Mario Bros. Movie should at last relinquish the crown. A low 4os dip should put it in the low to mid 20s.

Evil Dead Rise and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (after a disappointing premiere) should each fall a spot while John Wick: Chapter 4 may remain in fifth position.

That’s assuming Love Again struggles to find its desired audience and I am forecasting that’ll be the scenario. I have it in sixth and it might be lucky to get that much love.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $125.3 million

2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $23.8 million

3. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

6. Love Again

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (April 28-30)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie was #1 for the month of April as it spent a fourth weekend atop the charts with $40.8 million. That’s on pace with my $39.4 million estimate as the Nintendo juggernaut is up to $490 million domestically while crossing a billion worldwide.

Evil Dead Rise, especially for a horror sequel, had a commendable hold in second with $12.1 million, rising beyond my $8.8 million projection. The ten-day haul is an impressive $44 million.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, the cinematic rendering of Judy Blume’s acclaimed novel, was searching for an audience and came up short. In third place, it made a weak $6.7 million. This is well under my $15.3 million take as it struggled despite mostly rave reviews.

Return of the Jedi celebrated its 40th birthday with a return to approximately 500 screens and added $5.1 million to its coffers for fourth place. I didn’t have it on my radar screen to reach the top five.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $4.1 million) to bring its earnings to $176 million after six weeks.

Two other newcomers didn’t make much of a dent. Finnish action pic Sisu was in 10th place with $3.3 million. That’s actually not too shabby given its low 1006 theater count.

Boxing biopic Big George Foreman was knocked out with $2.9 million in 11th place. I thought it would perform better and went with $5.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite platform! Until next time…

Love Again Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping Love Again will capture the hearts of rom com fans and go on to solid earnings when it debuts May 5th. A remake of the 2016 German feature SMS für Dich, James C. Strouse directs the dramedy starring Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Sam Heughan, Russell Tovey, and Celine Dion (who plays a version of herself helping the two leads connect).

At one point titled It’s All Coming Back to Me (after one of Celine’s notable power ballads), Love may find challenges getting audiences coming in. A best case scenario is finding a decent female audience to serve as counter programming to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. That glass half full outlook could get it in high single digits or even $10 million. I’ll say it’ll be lucky to make half of that.

Love Again opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 prediction, click here:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction

Nearly three months after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania couldn’t quite match expectations at the box office, another MCU threequel hopes to exceed them. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arrives six years after the second volume with James Gunn returning to direct (he has since moved to the DCEU as their head creative honcho). Back in physical and voiceover form are Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff, Vin Diesel, Bradley Cooper, Sean Gunn, Elizabeth Debcki, and Sylvester Stallone. Will Poulter, Chukwudi Iwuji, and Maria Bakalova are newbies to the franchise. This is the second entry in Marvel’s Phase Five and 32nd feature overall.

2014’s Guardians was a critical and commercial smash that made $94 million for its start with a $333 million eventual domestic take. The goodwill was evident when Vol. 2 kicked off summer 2017 with a $146 million premiere and $389 million overall.

Early buzz is that tracking for the third adventure has been underwhelming. It should certainly surpass the $106 million that Quantumania opened at. Matching the second Guardian‘s haul (or the $144 million that Thor: Love and Thunder made last July) might be more challenging.

If this fails to match what its predecessor accomplished, that would be considered a letdown. I am projecting it will by around $20 million and therefore continue the MCU’s shaky 2023.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opening weekend prediction: $125.3 million

For my Love Again prediction, click here:

Love Again Box Office Prediction

April 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my Big George Foreman estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should have a fourth and final weekend atop the charts before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 kicks off May and the summer cinematic season. Coming-of-age dramedy Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and boxing biopic Big George Foreman also the newbies entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction
Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

The revolving door at #2 should belong to Margaret, based on the 1970 Judy Blume bestseller. While a gross approaching $20 million is feasible, I’ll say mid teens is where it lands. It will bank on strong holds in its subsequent frames.

As for Big George Foreman, it might find itself in a close race with the second weekend of Evil Dead Rise for third position. I have Rise falling in the low to mid 60s (similar to the 2013 predecessor Evil Dead). If that occurs, it might win a close decision vs. Foreman.

Mario should have no trouble dominating once again and a mid 30s dip would give it just under $40 million in that fourth outing.

Finally, I have holdover John Wick: Chapter 4 in fifth. That slot could go to Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant or Air, though I have Keanu and company experiencing the smallest decline.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $39.4 million

2. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. Big George Foreman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

As anticipated, it was a three-peat for The Super Mario Bros. Movie as it collected another $59.9 million in coinage. Blasting beyond my $54.8 million prediction, Illumination’s animated juggernaut has amassed $436 million domestically.

Evil Dead Rise proved there’s no horror fatigue for audiences following recent efforts Scream VI, The Pope’s Exorcist, and Renfield. The fifth pic in the franchise opened with an impressive $24.5 million, elevating past my $16.7 million take. That’s just a shade behind what 2013’s Dead ($25.7 million) kicked off with.

Afghanistan War drama Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal couldn’t fill its theaters with a middling $6.3 million. It did premiere a tad ahead of my $5.6 million forecast, but that’s still an unimpressive result.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was fourth with $5.8 million compared to my $4.7 million projection with $168 million in the coffers.

Fifth place belonged to Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves with $5.5 million (I said $4.3 million) as the franchise hopeful is straining to reach nine digits at $82 million.

Air was sixth with $5.4 million in the third weekend – in line with my $4.6 million guesstimate. Total is $41 million.

Plummeting from 2nd to 7th is The Pope’s Exorcist, falling victim to the power of Evil Dead . Down 62% in its sophomore frame with $3.4 million, I was more generous at $4.6 million. The ten-day tally is $15 million.

The story is similar for Renfield, down 59% in weekend #2 with $3.2 million (I went with $3.9 million). The tepid two-week total is $13 million.

Finally, Beau Is Afraid with Joaquin Phoenix (generating wildly divergent reactions) played well in very limited NY/LA showings last weekend. Yet it stumbled in wider release. The multi-genre odyssey made $2.7 million on just under 1000 screens. I was higher at $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

And in the meantime, listen to my box office thoughts on your favorite podcast platform by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation!

Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M

Big George Foreman enters the box office ring on April 28th from George Tillman Jr. (who recently directed Notorious and The Hate U Give). The sports biopic stars Khris Davis as the two-time boxing champ and grill master. Jasmine Mathews, John Magaro, Sullivan Jones, and Forest Whitaker are in the supporting cast.

Sony Pictures is hoping audiences are ready for another tale of the sweet science shortly after the success of Creed III. With a lack of star power and not much in the way of buzz, Foreman may struggle to reach $10 million in the first weekend. I’ll project it falls a bit shy for a performance that’s no knockout. It does get credit for having a ridiculously lengthy full title – The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World.

Big George Foreman opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret prediction, click here:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

After a sizzling limited release last weekend, Ari Aster’s Beau Is Afraid expands to just under 1000 screens this Friday. A mix of many genres from the director known for horror pics Hereditary and Midsommar, Joaquin Phoenix stars as a paranoid man on odyssey while dealing with severe mommy issues. Costars include Patti LuPone, Nathan Lane, Amy Rogers, Kylie Rogers, Parker Posey, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Hayley Squires, Michael Gandolfini, Zoe Lister-Jones, and Richard Kind.

Some critics have been quite kind and it sits at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. Others have called the three-hour opus a slog and predicted that general audiences are likely to have strong negative feelings. Beau scored $320,000 on just four screens days ago for a per theater average of $80k. It’s not surprising that it performed splendidly in NY/LA.

Beau faces more challenging prospects as it plays between the coasts. While it will probably have the third best screen average behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Evil Dead Rise (though the average could top that one), a gross between $4-5 million is likely.

Beau Is Afraid expanded opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

For my Evil Dead Rise prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping audiences will be there for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret when it opens April 28th. The coming-of-age dramedy is based on the well-known 1970 novel from Judy Blume. Kelly Fremon Craig, who wrote and directed 2016’s acclaimed The Edge of Seventeen, is behind the camera. Abby Ryder Fortson stars in the title role with Jennifer Garner, Benny Safdie, and Kathy Bates in the supporting cast.

Despite the popularity of its source material, author Blume held onto the film rights for over half a century. Margaret will attempt to bring in a wide female audiences whose familiarity with the book spans generations. Some early prognoses have this potentially reaching $20 million. I’ll say low to mid teens is where this lands.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million

For my Big George Foreman prediction, click here:

Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction