Tag: box office predictions

March 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Creed III looks to KO all competitors as the Japanese animated episodic effort Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village and Guy Ritchie’s action comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Michael B. Jordan makes his directorial debut in the third feature in the Creed franchise and ninth in the Rocky cinematic universe. It is the first not to feature Rocky himself Sylvester Stallone. However, reviews are strong and I see no reason why this wouldn’t continue the muscular grosses. The first two Creed flicks opened over long Thanksgiving frames. Part III could manage the highest three-day start at just under $40 million.

Swordsmith is a head scratcher. In 2021, Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train astonished forecasters with $21 million in its first weekend. Swordsmith is not a sequel. Instead it combines episodes from a TV show related to the franchise. I’ve yet to see a theater count so that could alter my take. If it manages close to half of what Train accomplished, it would place in the top five.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, the latest collaboration between Ritchie and Jason Statham, seems like it is being dumped into multiplexes and my meager $4 million projection leaves it in sixth.

As for holdovers, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania experienced a massive second weekend dip (more on that below). The third frame drop-off shouldn’t be as disastrous (perhaps a bit over 50%). Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution both over performed in their premieres. The Revolution sophomore decline may only be in the high 20s with Cocaine being cut in the low to mid 40s.

Here’s how I envision the top six looking:

1. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $39.2 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

6. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

The #1 spot came without bragging rights as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania suffered the largest second frame fall of all the 31 MCU entries. At 70%, the Paul Rudd threequel made $31.9 million. I was slightly more generous at $34.2 million. The ten-day tally is $167 million and it will be the best earner of the Ant-Man trilogy. It still scored a record that Disney/MCU can’t be thrilled about.

Universal, on the other hand, can celebrate their marketing campaign for Cocaine Bear as it paid off with $23.2 million for second place. That’s well above the rosiest predictions and considerably beyond my call of $14.3 million.

Faith-based drama Jesus Revolution continued over performances for the genre at $15.8 million in third. I was more skeptical with only $8.7 million. With an A+ Cinemascore, this could be blessed with smallish declines in the coming weeks.

Avatar: The Way of Water was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring the eleven week gross to $665 million.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $4.1 million. I went with $4.6 million and the animated sequel has amassed $173 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction

One of the biggest box office surprises of 2021 was the haul of Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train in the spring. While it finished #2 behind Mortal Kombat, the $21 million start and $13k+ per screen average was astonishing.

On March 3rd, the Japanese animated franchise appears again in multiplexes with To the Swordsmith Village. This is not a sequel to the 2021 pic. Haruo Sotozaki, like in Train, conducts the directorial assignment that shows the 10th and 11th episodes of the Toho and Aniplex property.

Distributed stateside by Sony/Crunchyroll, I’ll be frank with this projection. Without a theater count (which I’ve yet to see), this is a highly tricky call to make. Train could have been lightning in a bottle or we may witness another massive over performance with Village. For now I’ll say high single digits since this appears to be a limited release that viewers don’t have to book passage to a multiplex to watch.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my Creed III prediction, click here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction

For my Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre prediction, click here:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).

Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.

There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million

For my Creed III prediction, click here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction

Creed III Box Office Prediction

Creed III looks to clobber Scott Lang (aka Ant-Man) and all other competitors when it debuts March 3rd. The sporty sequel finds star Michael B. Jordan handling directorial duties in his behind the camera debut. This is the first feature in the Rocky Cinematic Universe with no involvement from Sylvester Stallone. Jonathan Majors, currently playing the antagonist in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, is Creed’s former childhood friend and latest opponent. Tessa Thompson, Wood Harris, Florian Munteanu, and Phylicia Rashad return to the franchise.

In 2015, Creed was a critical and commercial hit from Ryan Coogler. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, it took in just over $30 million from Friday to Sunday and nearly $43 million over the five-day start. The eventual domestic haul was $109 million. Three Turkey Days later came Creed II with Steven Caple Jr. directing and audiences were hungry for more. It topped its predecessor with $35 million for the three-day and $55 million when including Wednesday and Thursday.

Early word-of-mouth is sturdy for the third edition. Like parts I and II, this was originally slated for Thanksgiving last year before United Artists made a shift. Creed III could manage to score the highest three-day launch of the bunch and approach $40 million out of the gate. I will put it just under that for a three-day best franchise opening.

Creed III opening weekend prediction: $39.2 million

For my Operation Fortune: Rose de Guerre prediction, click here:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village prediction, click here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction

February 24-26 Box Office Predictions

While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania should easily stay in the number one spot, Cocaine Bear looks for a strong #2 showing and Jesus Revolution hopes to rise above expectations. They are the newcomers this weekend and my detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:

Cocaine Bear Box Office Prediction
Jesus Revolution Box Office Prediction

Cocaine Bear has generated buzz since its trailer (and honestly the title reveal). It could blow past my low teens estimate, but I do believe the appeal might be somewhat limited.

Jesus Revolution, as other faith-based dramas have, could exceed my sub double digits projection. A third place showing seems likely. If it does surpass my prognosis and Cocaine comes in under mine, a battle for the runner-up position is feasible.

Quantumania opened in its expected range and crawled ahead of my estimate (more on that below). It also received a troubling Cinemascore grade of B (tying the lowest for the MCU with Eternals). That should mean a sophomore drop in the mid to high 60s (similar to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder from last year) is coming.

Holiday holdovers Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should round out the top five. Here’s how I envision it:

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

As anticipated, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania commanded the long President’s Day frame with $120.3 million from Friday to Monday. That’s ahead of my $109.1 million estimate. That easily makes for the best start to the three Ant pics (as was expected). Per above, the second weekend dip should be substanial.

Avatar: The Way of Water held in second with $8 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. The mega-sequel has amassed $659 million domestically.

The sequel love continued with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at $7 million in third, slashing past my $5.8 million take. Total is $167 million.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance dropped from 1st to 4th though it doubled its theater count from approximately 1500 to over 3000. It made $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) for overall earnings of $18 million.

Knock at the Cabin was fifth and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. With $4.6 million, the three-week gross is $31 million.

Finally, 80 for Brady was sixth with $4.5 million compared to my $4.2 million guesstimate. The octogenarian comedy is up to $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! In case you didn’t know, I’ve started a podcast where you can hear my box office and Oscar predictions and the link for it is below. Until next time…

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/movies-at-the-speed-of-speculation/id1668006585?i=1000601007142

Jesus Revolution Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping the Jesus Revolution picks up plenty of followers when it debuts February 24th. The faith based drama set in the 1970s is directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle. Erwin, along with his brother Andrew, are responsible for making such genre successes as Woodlawn, I Can Only Imagine, and American Underdog. The cast includes Joel Courtney, Anna Grace Barlow, Jonathan Roumie, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, and Kelsey Grammer.

Christian themed pics are tricky to predict. They can often exceed expectations, but there’s a few that don’t match forecasts. The track history of the Erwins is more with the former. A gross exceeding $10 million is certainly doable. Underdog, focused on the rise of quarterback Kurt Warner, made $5.9 million in its premiere. However, it opened during Christmas weekend of 2021 when competition was fierce. I’ll say Revolution tops that figure while not hitting double digits.

Jesus Revolution opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Cocaine Bear prediction, click here:

Cocaine Bear Box Office Prediction

Cocaine Bear Box Office Prediction

Cocaine Bear gets the animalistic truth in advertising award (previously held by Snakes on a Plane) as it blows into theaters on February 24th. Inspired by the true story of a creature who ingested the drug dropped by smugglers in Tennessee circa 1985, Elizabeth Banks directs. The cast (besides the bear) includes Keri Russell, O’Shea Jackson Jr., Alden Ehrenreich, Christian Convery, Brooklyn Prince, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Isiah Whitlock Jr., Margo Martindale, and the late Ray Liotta.

The Universal release has garnered plenty of attention to the stranger than fiction storyline. Reviews aren’t available yet and they could determine how high this gets. While the advertising campaign has been robust, its appeal might be somewhat limited.

At best, I could see this reaching high teens. Bear could also struggle to reach double digits under a worst case scenario. I’ll split the difference.

Cocaine Bear opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million

For my Jesus Revolution prediction, click here:

Jesus Revolution Box Office Prediction

February 17-20 Box Office Predictions

Blogge’s Update (02/16): It has been announced that Magic Mike’s Last Dance is significantly increasing its screen count from 1500 venues to over 3000 in weekend #2. Therefore I’m upping my estimate from $4 million to $5.5 million along with giving slight bumps to Avatar and Puss in Boots. Ant-Man remains unchanged.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe begins Phase Five as their 31st picture Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania looks to easily have the biggest debut since Avatar: The Way of Water. We also have low-budget British slasher Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey straying far from its Disney version out on Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the duo here:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction
Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey Box Office Prediction

Keep in mind that this is a holiday weekend so my projections are for Friday to Monday. Ant-Man and the Wasp from 2018 built upon the premiere of the 2015 original – $75 million vs. $57 million. Quantumania should continue that trend with a four-day haul of over $100 million.

The rest of the top five should be holdovers and I have Magic Mike’s Last Dance sliding the furthest from 1st to 5th after a shaky start (more on that below). That said, Winnie is a potential spoiler. Reportedly shot for under $100k, it could capture the attention of horror fans and exceed my estimate of $3.5 million from Friday to Monday and $4.7 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. I currently have it just outside the high five. Keep an eye on this post. That could change by lock time on Thursday.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $109.1 million

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Magic Mike’s Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. 80 for Brady

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (February 10-12)

Moviegoers mostly stayed home this weekend and not just on Sunday for the Super Bowl and/or Rihanna concert. Everything came in a tad shy (or more than a tad in a couple of cases) of my predictions.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance was a muted #1 with $8.3 million. Warner Bros didn’t seem to have much faith in it as its release was on a scant 1500 screens. So while the per theater average surpassed predecessor Magic Mike XXL (2015), it fell far short in terms of actual gross. I said it would $10.7 million.

Avatar: The Way of Water rose a spot to second with $7.2 million, in line with my $7.5 million take as it hit $647 million. Per above, it should stay put in second this weekend.

The 25th anniversary re-release of Titanic couldn’t match my expectations. James Cameron’s first picture to become the highest grosser of all time added $6.7 million to its coffers. I thought it would be #1 and guesstimated $11.6 million. Don’t feel sorry for Leo and Kate. After a quarter century, it is now at a devilish $666 million stateside.

80 for Brady, with sturdy competition for the female demo with Magic Mike and Titanic, suffered in its sophomore outing with $5.8 million. I projected $8.1 million. The 54% plummet is a little troubling and it is now at $24 million after ten days.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $5.5 million (I said $5.6 million) for $158 million overall.

Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin was burned in weekend #2, falling from 1st to 6th. It plummeted 62% with $5.4 million (under my $5.9 million forecast) for a mere $23 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey Box Office Prediction

This ain’t your Disney bear coming to the big screen when Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey drops on February 15th. The low-budget British slasher film is the result of the 1926 book that introduced Winnie becoming public domain last year. That means the Mouse Factory no longer has exclusive rights to the title character, Christopher Robin, Piglet, and so forth.

Shot in 10 days for reportedly under $100k, Pooh garnered lots of free publicity due to its unique existence involving characters usually seen in G or PG circumstances. Rhys Frake-Waterfield directs a cast of unknowns that including Nikolai Leon, Craig David Dowsett, Chris Cordell, and Maria Taylor.

In late January, this premiered in Mexican cinemas and has taken in a robust $500k+ thus far. In the U.S. and Canada, it was originally slated for October 2022 as a one-night event through Fathom’s distribution. Pooh buzz changed that planned release pattern and it is rumored for approximately 1500 venues starting Wednesday.

Obviously many moviegoers will be preoccupied with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. However, if that theater count holds, this should top its $100k price tag in the first six days (counting the Monday for the President’s Day longer frame) many times over.

Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Monday); $4.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania prediction, click here:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hopes to score commanding grosses over the long President’s Day weekend starting February 17th. The 31st entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and third in this particular franchise features Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly reprising their roles as the title heroes. Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas are back with Jonathan Majors being introduced as villain Kang the Conqueror. Peyton Reed (who helmed the first two) is back directing. Other cast members include Kathryn Newton, David Dastmalchian, William Jackson Harper, Katy O’Brian, and Bill Murray.

The initial movie in the MCU’s Phase Five (with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels up next), Ant-Man looks to expand on the opening earnings of its predecessors. In the summer of 2015, Ant-Man made $57 million for its start (the second smallest MCU debut with The Incredible Hulk being lowest at $55 million). It ended up with $180 million domestically. Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp reached higher with $75 million and an eventual stateside tally of $216 million.

When it comes to the MCU, sequels typically outperform their originals (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was a recent exception to the rule). Thor: Love and Thunder, on the other hand, built upon its three predecessors. Quantumania should follow that trend.

As far as President’s Day weekend, it shouldn’t come close to approaching the record. That was five years ago with Black Panther when it scored $202 million from Friday to Sunday and $242 million when factoring Monday. The runner-up is 2016’s Deadpool with respective three and four-day takes of $132 million and $152 million. Third place belongs to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85 million Friday to Sunday, $93 million four-day).

This should manage a third place all-time haul. I’ll say the three-day falls a tad short of $100 million and just shy of $110 million with Monday’s inclusion.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opening weekend prediction: $96.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $109.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey prediction, click here:

Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey Box Office Prediction