Box Office Predictions: March 7-9

Family audiences and action fans are the target audiences this weekend as the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire premiere in theaters. It is likely to be a very tight race between the two pics for the #1 spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Peabody edging out 300, but truth be told – it could easily go either way. As for holdovers, I would expect last weekend’s champ Non-Stop to lose a little less than half its audience. On the other hand, Son of God seems like the type of movie that is frontloaded with its target audience primed to see it during weekend #1. Therefore I expect a drop of over 50%. The competition from Peabody should cause the smash hit LEGO Movie to have its biggest drop yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

3. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

The results from this past weekend represent what I believe is my best weekend of predictin’ in the history of the blog (pat on back). Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop took top honors with $28.8 million – right in line with my $28.2M estimate. At 61, Neeson is still proving himself to be one of the most bankable action stars in the world.

Son of God was runner-up with an impressive $25.6 million, just below my $26.7M prediction. In third after three weeks at #1 was The LEGO Movie with $20.8 million – on pace with my $20.5M projection. The four spot was Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill in its sophomore weekend with $4.9 million, in line with my $5.1M estimate.

The only place I went wrong was not including The Monuments Men in the top five. It took the five spot with $4.9 million. I had Robocop in fifth but it was sixth my $4.5 million (on par with my $4.6M prediction).

So kudos to me for the weekend! Let’s see if my predictions for this upcoming frame are anywhere close.

I’ll have final results on the blog a week from today.

300: Rise of an Empire Box Office Prediction

300: Rise of an Empire is a big question mark as it arrives in theaters this Friday. Will the sequel bring in a large audience almost exactly seven years after the original was a surprise smash?

Zack Snyder’s 300 shocked prognosticators in 2007 with a gargantuan $70 million debut on its way to a $210 million domestic total. The conventional wisdom is this follow-up won’t come close to that kind of performance and I agree with that. Seven years is a long time between sequels and I’m skeptical that there’s massive pent up anticipation for this.

Having said that, the name brand alone should get it beyond the $30 million mark for an opening. I say should because I’m still a little unsure. A $25 million debut wouldn’t shock me… and that would considered a pretty major letdown for Warner Bros. This was originally scheduled to premiere last summer, but was pushed back. The original director Snyder returns as producer and cowriter with Noam Murro taking over behind the camera duties. Newcomers to the franchise Sullivan Stapleton and Eva Green headline with holdovers from the first Lena Headey and Rodrigo Santoro costarring.

300 should find itself in a battle with the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman for #1. This could certainly capitalize on the goodwill that the first generated and blast past $40 million. However, I’m going towards the low end of predictions and saying it just gets passed the $30M range.

300: Rise of an Empire opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million

For my Mr. Peabody & Sherman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Peabody & Sherman Box Office Prediction

Based on a series of animated features from the 1960s that was highlighted on “The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show”, this Friday DreamWorks brings Mr. Peabody & Sherman to theaters. The film features the voices of Ty Burrell, Leslie Mann, Stephen Colbert, Mel Brooks, and others and will attempt to continue a hot run for animated flicks after megahits Frozen and The LEGO Movie.

The fact that family audiences have had plenty of solid choices lately could potentially hinder Peabody‘s grosses. For comparison sake, Fox’s The Croods debuted to $43 million in March of 2013. That would represent quite a victory for this if it could get that high. It’s possible, but I suspect Peabody won’t get past the $40 million mark. Reviews have been positive and that should help, but ultimately I think a premiere in the mid 30s is the most likely scenario here.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my 300: Rise of an Empire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 28-March 2

This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/

While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion

3. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 21-23)

As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!

Box Office Predictions: February 21-23

The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:

1. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Pompeii

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.

Pompeii Box Office Prediction

The $100 million budgeted gladiator epic Pompeii arrives in theaters Friday and this begs an obvious question: they invested $100 million dollars on this!?!?!

Director Paul W.S. Anderson is known for the Resident Evil franchise and here his attention turns to 79 A.D. for this action fest. The cast includes Kit Harrington from “Games of Thrones”, Emily Browning, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Kiefer Sutherland. The marketing campaign has been pretty muted for a picture of this budget. While FilmDistrict is maybe hoping for 300 type numbers, I don’t think Pompeii has a shot of that. Perhaps its 3D ticket prices could help, but I’m skeptical of that as well.

Pompeii has the look of a high-priced flop to this movie blogger. It could surprise me with high teens or beyond, but my gut says low teens.

Pompeii opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

For my prediction on 3 Days to Kill, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

3 Days to Kill Box Office Prediction

All of a sudden Kevin Costner is everywhere and in the last few months he’s appeared in Man of Steel, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and the upcoming football flick Draft Day. For this weekend it’s the action/thriller 3 Days to Kill which is helmed by McG, director of the Charlie’s Angels pics and Terminator: Salvation.

Costner certainly isn’t the box office draw that he was a couple of decades ago and the advertising for Kill doesn’t make it look like anything other than a generic action movie. My main question is whether or not this even gets past single digits in its debut. I have my doubts and don’t see a compelling reason why this would have a solid opening. If Liam Neeson were headlining this, I’d likely to be singing a different tune but since that’s not the case I’m going low here.

3 Days to Kill opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my prediction on Pompeii, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

Endless Love Box Office Prediction

I’ve already covered two 80s remakes (Robocop and About Last Night) that will be released Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend and now we move to the third – Endless Love. This one updates the 1981 Brooke Shields flick that today is mostly known for its title song sung by Lionel Richie and Diana Ross. In this case, blogging last about this movie may be indeed because it’ll make the least.

Alex Pettyfer from Magic Mike and Gabriella Wilde from The Three Musketeers headline the romantic drama. The fact that it’s being released on Valentine’s Day will only help it grosses, but it’s worth noting that Winter’s Tale and About Last Night are also making a play for the V Day crowd. I expect both of them to outdo Love.

Endless Love should easily get beyond double digits for the four day weekend, but anything over mid teens would be higher than I can envision.

Endless Love opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million

For my prediction on Robocop, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Winter’s Tale, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

Winter’s Tale Box Office Prediction

This weekend’s romantic drama Winter’s Tale is the sole picture of the quartet coming out over President’s Day that isn’t based on a 1980s flick. It is based on a novel from Mark Helprin that came out in the 80s though. The period piece’s cast includes Colin Farrell, Jennifer Connelly, and Russell Crowe and comes from Akiva Goldsman, making his feature directorial debut. He’s well-known in Hollywood for his screenplays and they include A Time to Kill, A Beautiful Mind, Cinderella Man, and The Da Vinci Code.

Warner Bros. is definitely hoping the pic’s Valentine’s Day release date brings in couples. And I’ll predict that the release date will certainly help. Anything over $20 million would be considered quite a feat and it wouldn’t shock me if it got there (it has a smallish $46M budget). However, with direct competition from both About Last Night and Endless Love, I believe a more likely scenario is a debut in the high teens.

Winter’s Tale opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million (Friday to Monday)

For my prediction on Robocop, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Endless Love, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

About Last Night Box Office Prediction

The President’s Day cavalcade of 80s remakes continues on with About Last Night, which updates the 1986 romance that starred Rob Lowe, Demi Moore, Jim Belushi, and Elizabeth Perkins. Perfectly positioned with a Valentine’s Day release – it will face competition from other romantic themed pictures Winter’s Tale and Endless Love, which I’ll get to later today.

About Last Night, however, has a pretty big ace up its sleeve in the form of Kevin Hart who couldn’t be more popular right now with the massive success of last month’s Ride Along. Costars include Michael Ealy, Regina Hall, and Joy Bryant. The combination of Hart and its well-timed release leads me to believe this could open very big, perhaps even surpassing Robocop – another high-profile 80s reboot. For comparisons sake, it could open similar to what The Best Man Holiday did in November with $30 million.

The four day holiday gross may push About Last Night beyond that number by a bit. This film should especially do well with African-American audiences, who made up 87% of Holiday‘s opening weekend crowd. Bottom line: Kevin Hart’s run of box office fortune in 2014 should continue here.

About Last Night opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million (Friday to Monday gross)