Robocop Box Office Prediction

It’s been over 20 years since the character has appeared on screen, but that will change Wednesday when the Robocop reboot hits theaters. A remake of the 1987 action hit, director Jose Padilha takes over the franchise with relative unknown Joel Kinnaman taking on the title role that Peter Weller made famous over a quarter century ago.

While Kinnaman isn’t well-known, there are plenty of familiar faces in supporting roles including Samuel L. Jackson, Gary Oldman, Michael Keaton, Abbie Cornish, and Jackie Earle Haley. MGM and Columbia are clearly hoping they have a worldwide hit on their hands with the pic’s large $130 million budget. Reviews have been mixed so far with a current rating of 48% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Robocop launches on Wednesday so my prediction will reflect my feeling for both its Friday to Monday gross over the President’s Day weekend and its total six day haul. On this same weekend last year, A Good Day to Die Hard took in nearly $29 million over the four day with almost $37 million when you factor in its Thursday debut. Robocop has an extra day to bring in the money, but I feel this may open with slightly smaller results. It doesn’t have the star power of Bruce Willis in his most famous role, but there certainly is a highly familiarity of many moviegoers with the source material.

Robocop opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million (Friday to Monday), $34.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my prediction on About Last Night, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Winter’s Tale, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Endless Love, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

Vampire Academy Box Office Prediction

On Friday, Vampire Academy attempts to bring in teen audiences with its mix of fantasy and comedy. It’s based on a bestselling 2007 novel and comes from director Mark Waters, mostly known for his successes with Lindsay Lohan in Freaky Friday and Mean Girls. The cast mostly consists of unknowns.

Vampire Academy would love to see an opening gross similar to that of Warm Bodies, which opened in early February last year to a $20 million start. The other scenario could be a debut in line with Beautiful Creatures, which also opened in February 2013 to only $7.5 million. My gut tells me the latter is more likely.

The picture just doesn’t seem to have much traction and the marketing campaign has been rather quiet. While it could eek past double digits, I think Vampire Academy falls short of that for a lackluster premiere.

Vampire Academy opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million

For my prediction on The Lego Movie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-lego-movie-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Monuments Men, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

The Monuments Men Box Office Prediction

For much of 2013, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men was looked at as a potential Oscar contender and was scheduled to be released in December. Last fall it was pushed back to February and now it appears we may know why. Reviews have not been too kind and the film currently sits at only 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. Simply put, The Monuments Men was not going to be recognized by the Academy and Columbia Pictures probably realized it.

What impact will the negative critical reaction have? At one time, I might’ve thought Monuments could reach an opening gross similar to what Argo did ($19M) or even Captain Phillips ($25M). Now I’m skeptical. The World War II era picture focuses on people tasked with saving cultural artifacts before the Hitler regime destroys them. Clooney directs and stars and he’s brought in an impressive cast that includes Matt Damon, Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, Hugh Bonneville, and Bob Balaban. Where Monuments Men could score is with adult filmgoers looking for something to watch after they’ve seen the Oscar favorites.

Having said that, the unfavorable reaction so far doesn’t help. I believe this won’t reach past $20 million and that a debut in the mid to late teens is more probable.

The Monuments Men opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million

For my prediction on The Lego Movie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-lego-movie-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Vampire Academy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/

The Lego Movie Box Office Prediction

2013 was a huge year for animated pictures and now the first weekend in February brings The Lego Movie, a high-profile offering from Warner Bros. based on that line of toys that we all grew up and played with. Lego features the voices of plenty of actors we know including Will Ferrell, Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett, Charlie Day, Morgan Freeman, Liam Neeson, Channing Tatum, and Jonah Hill.

While The Lego Movie is unlikely to reach the heights of Despicable Me 2, Frozen, or Monsters University from last year, it’s reasonable to speculate than an opening similar to Wreck It Ralph is in the cards. That title opened to $49 million in November 2012. I believe the widespread familiarity of the pic’s subject matter and its robust marketing campaign may actually propel it a bit higher and over the $50M mark. This is the type of animated flick that parents probably won’t mind taking the kiddos to and I’m predicting stellar results.

The Lego Movie opening weekend prediction: $54.2 million

For my prediction on The Monuments Men, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Vampire Academy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 31-February 2

It’s very early in the year but this upcoming weekend at the box office is a good candidate for one of the dullest we’ll see all year. The Zac Efron comedy That Awkward Moment and Kate Winslet/Josh Brolin drama Labor Day are the only debuts and neither seems to be garnering much excitement. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/that-awkward-moment-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/labor-day-box-office-prediction/

If neither of those titles breaks out above double digits, the chance are high that the Kevin Hart/Ice Cube comedy Ride Along could top the box office for the third week in a row. There is, however, another factor. Disney’s megahit Frozen is expanding its theater count with a sing-along version of the film and that just might cause it to see an increase from this past weekend. I’m predicting it’ll be extremely close between those holdovers for #1 in a weekend sure to overshadowed by a certain football game capturing the nation’s attention.

With that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ride Along

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing an increase of 19%)

3. Labor Day

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. That Awkward Moment

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. The Nut Job

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS FROM LAST WEEKEND: I correctly called Ride Along being #1 for its second weekend and it made $21.2 million, just below my $22.7M prediction. However, I was off with my I, Frankenstein estimate. The critically reviled pic bombed badly with only $8.6 million for a sixth place showing. I gave it way too much credit and said it’d be #2 with $16.6M. Oops. Lone Survivor was second with $12.9 million (in line with my $13.6M prediction) and The Nut Job was third with $12.9 million (in line with my $12.1M prediction). Once again, I made the mistake of leaving Frozen out of the top five. It was fourth with $9.1 million. This left Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit at fifth in its second weekend with $9 million – on pace with my $9.5M estimate.

That’s all for now! I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final predictions and results Monday.

Labor Day Box Office Prediction

After it played the film festival circuit last fall it became clear Jason Reitman’s Labor Day was not going to be the awards contender the studio hoped for. Starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin, the pic generated mostly positive but unspectacular reviews. It was given a late qualifying limited run for Oscar consideration and ignored.

Director Reitman is mostly known for comedic dramas like Juno, Up in the Air, and Young Adult. This one is on the more serious side and Paramount is hoping the romantic plot between its stars will bring females out. Labor Day may follow in the direction of another Winslet drama that the Academy mostly ignored five years ago – Revolutionary Road. That title only managed $22 million domestically in its entire run. And it had Kate’s Titanic costar Leonardo DiCaprio in it.

Labor Day is opening on over half as many screens as Road did so its opening weekend should top the $5 million that it managed. However, passing double digits seems unlikely to me though it should come close.

Labor Day opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million

For my prediction on That Awkward Moment, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/that-awkward-moment-box-office-prediction/

That Awkward Moment Box Office Prediction

And so begins one of the more dull weekends of the year historically at the box office and 2014 seems no different. While moviegoers may catch up on some January leftovers or Oscar hopefuls, audience attention will likely be focused on another activity: the Denver Broncos vs. the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

This leaves only two modest openings which aren’t expected to rustle up much business. First off is That Awkward Moment, an R-rated rom com headlined by Zac Efron, Fruitvale Station‘s Michael B. Jordan, and Miles Teller. The film’s marketing campaign has been rather muted and that indicates a dearth of confidence from Focus Features.

That Awkward Moment stands a chance at a double digit premiere, but I think it’ll be lucky to reach the $8.7 million opening that 21&Over (a similarly themed title) reached in March 2013. I think Moment falls just under that.

That Awkward Moment opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my prediction on Labor Day, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/26/labor-day-box-office-prediction/

I, Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

Aaron Eckhart stars in I, Frankenstein which opens this coming Friday and is the only wide release hitting theaters next weekend. This is likely not a matter of other studios being scared that I, Frankenstein is going to be a monster hit (pun intended). This is more due to the fact that four movies opened over MLK weekend and there’s still plenty of holiday leftovers making money.

Frankenstein‘s release date has been pushed back several times. It was originally scheduled to open almost a year ago. This reimagining of the familiar story that originated with Mary Shelley’s novel and has seen numerous film incarnations doesn’t inspire much excitement from its middling TV spots. Furthermore, while Eckhart is a well-respected actor, he’s not a box office draw.

The film’s best hope for box office success hinges on the fact that it’s got the word Frankenstein in the title. That might not get it far enough along to justify its $68 million budget. On the same weekend last year, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters opened to a decent $19.6 million. Lionsgate would probably be pleased with a similar result here.

The possibility of I, Frankenstein getting past $20 million out of the gate is reasonable, but I don’t think it’ll reach the total that those witch hunters accomplished a year ago. Therefore – I, Todd Thatcher, believe I, Frankenstein is headed toward a so-so premiere.

I, Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

Box Office Predictions: January 17-20

Four new titles populate multiplexes this Friday over the four-day MLK weekend – Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, Ride Along, Devil’s Due, and The Nut Job. You can peruse my prediction posts on each one of them at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/jack-ryan-shadow-recruit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/ride-along-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/devils-due-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/the-nut-job-box-office-prediction/

The big question is: can any of these releases knock off Lone Survivor from staying at #1 for the second weekend? The Mark Wahlberg Navy SEAL pic had the second highest January debut of all time, far surpassing the box office predictions of prognosticators, including this one. With its remarkable A+ Cinemascore average, word of mouth on Survivor is very strong and it should hold up quite well in weekend number two.

The 2014 MLK weekend may well resemble the same one from five years ago when four new releases all posted healthy debuts. There was Paul Blart: Mall Cop which made $39 million over the four-day while My Bloody Valentine 3D, Notorious, and Hotel for Dogs all posted openings of over $20 million. The four new titles this year I have pegged at between $17-$25 million each, but any of them could do better and take top honors from Wahlberg and company. My predictions do not reflect that though and I believe Lone Survivor should stay alone at the top spot.

And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend’s top five for the four-day Friday to Monday frame:

1. Lone Survivor

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 19%)

2. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

3. Ride Along

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

4. The Nut Job

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

5. Devil’s Due

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

My Results from Last Weekend (January 10-12):

As I mentioned, Lone Survivor went beyond expectations with a terrific debut of $37.8 million, well ahead of my paltry $21.7M projection. Disney’s Frozen stayed at #2 with $14.7 million, a bit higher than my estimate of $13.5M. The Legend of Hercules debuted at third with a disappointing $8.8 million, below my $11.9M prediction. The Wolf of Wall Street was fourth, also with $8.8 million – right in line with my $8.5M estimate. American Hustle was fifth with $8.3 million and I incorrectly did not have it the top five. The six spot belonged to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug with $8 million, just under my $8.4M projection.

Finally, two Oscar hopefuls expanded their theater counts with different results. August: Osage County was seventh with a solid $7.1 million on only around 900 screens, beyond my $5.8M projection. Her was a disappointment, managing only $5.3 million for an 11th place showing, well below my $8.3M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results next week.

The Nut Job Box Office Prediction

While Disney’s Frozen continues to post impressive numbers after several weeks in release, another animated tale debuts Friday with The Nut Job. This is the first animated feature from Open Roads Films with the Weinstein Company picking up international distribution. Featuring the voices of Will Arnett, Brendan Fraser, Liam Neeson, and Katherine Heigl, the squirrel flick is certainly nowhere near the stratosphere of any Pixar or Disney product or anything like the Despicable Me series.

Still, family audiences could be on the lookout for something new as Frozen has been out for quite a while now. Having said that, this is certainly on the B team of animated movies and I wouldn’t expect anything too high. Anything over $25 million for the four day MLK weekend would be surprising. I expect it to follow the pattern of another “B team” animated entry – last year’s Escape from Planet Earth. That film earned $15.8 million over the three day portion of 2013’s President’s Day weekend and $21.1 million for the four day holiday time frame. That seems like a fairly reasonable range for The Nut Job, but I will predict this falls a bit under that.

The Nut Job opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday-to-Monday)