Amid the many sequels and family fare populating the multiplexes right now, Ryan Reynolds will attempt to lure audiences in with the sci fi thriller Self/less, out Friday. A loose remake of John Frankenheimer’s 1968 cult hit Seconds, Tarsem (most known for 2000’s Jennifer Lopez brain warp The Cell) directs with Ben Kingsley costarring.
Early reviews have been lukewarm and it’s difficult to see a path where Self/less breaks out. While Reynolds experienced a minor sleeper hit this spring with the drama Woman in Gold, his last summertime entry didn’t turn out well. That would be 2013’s big budget R.I.P.D., which tanked with a $12.6 million debut. Expectations aren’t as high for this and it could struggle to even reach the meager number of that aforementioned dud.
Self/less opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million
We’ve gotten very used to low budget found footage horror flicks with unknown casts and we have another one coming our way Friday when The Gallows debuts. The Warner Bros title will look to bring in genre fans but its prospects look rather dicey.
Perusing the opening weekends of other similar themed fare, Project Almanac premiered to just $8.3 million in January of this year while As Above/So Below took in $8.6 million last summer. It could reach a bit higher and maybe make around the $9.7 million that Deliver Us from Evil made in July of 2014. That seems within the range of where The Gallows could open at. It is matches around my sub double digits estimate, look for it to fade fast.
The Gallows opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million
Two summers ago, Despicable Me 2 rocketed out of the gate over the July 4th weekend with a better than expected $83.5 million over the three day traditional weekend and $143 million over the holiday frame. Its eventual domestic gross of $368 million would be good for fourth on the list of 2013 earners.
With that glorious performance fresh in mind, it’s anticipated that Minions, out Friday, should have a stealthy opening. The 3D animated pic is a spinoff of Universal’s venerable franchise that should easily tide fans over until Despicable Me 3 hits screens in the summer of 2017.
Lots of familiar faces populate the voices behind the characters, including Sandra Bullock, Jon Hamm, Michael Keaton, Allison Janney, Steve Coogan and Geoffrey Rush. Reviews have been mostly positive as it stands at 74% on Rotten Tomatoes, which exactly matches the number posted by DM2. There will be competition as Pixar’s Inside Out continues to post robust numbers, but family audiences should have no trouble fitting these cute little Minions in their schedule.
I would anticipate the film debuting to just under the $100 million mark and the possibility certainly exists that it could top that magic century mark. Whether or not it reaches the eventual gross of its franchise predecessor remains to be seen.
Fireworks and hot dogs may be predictable on July 4th weekend, but 2015’s box office for the holiday is anything but. There are four pictures that all have legitimate shots at being #1 and they include newcomers Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL. You can read my detailed predictions on each of them here:
Both face heavy competition from Jurassic World, which has been spent three weeks on its record breaking #1 run and Pixar’s Inside Out, which has itself set records while perched at second for the last two weeks.
As I see it, I believe there will be a photo finish between Terminator, Jurassic, and Inside Out with Magic Mike taking fourth place due to a projected front loaded five day gross when its hardcore female fans may rush to watch it Wednesday and Thursday. Genisys also opens Wednesday.
Ted 2 came in well below expectations this past weekend (more on that below) and looks to place fifth.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. Terminator Genisys
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $48.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $30.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
3. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Magic Mike XXL
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. Ted 2
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
As mentioned, Jurassic World continued its history making stampede and placed #1 for the third frame in a row with $54.5 million (ahead of my $51.1M estimate). The three week total stands at an amazing $500 million and looks to place third, if not second, on all time domestic earners.
Pixar’s Inside Out maintained its runner-up status with $52.3 million, in line with my $53.4M projection. Its two week total is $185 million and it should pass the $350M mark with relative ease.
Seth MacFarlane’s comedy sequel Ted 2 posted lackluster results that were well below expectations with $33.5 million, far below my $50.8M prediction. This is a far cry from the $54M earned by the original three summers ago.
The family dog drama Max debuted fourth to an OK $12.2 million, under my $13.9M prediction and Melissa McCarthy’s Spy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million – on pace with my $7.6M estimate for a total of $88M.
The boys are back on screen as Channing Tatum, Matt Bomer, and Joe Manganaiello return for Magic Magic XXL, the sequel to 2012’s surprise summer hit. Some of the personnel behind the blockbuster from three years earlier, like director Steven Soderbergh and costar Matthew McConaughey, are not returning and we have a new director (Gregory Jacobs) and additional new cast members (Elizabeth Banks and Amber Heard).
Clearly, though, the main draw is Tatum and his male stripper friends. Magic Mike took the box office by storm three years ago with a $39 million debut on its way to a $113 million domestic gross. As with the original, XXL will bank on female fans coming out in droves while their male counterparts keep themselves busy with Terminator Genisys.
I believe it could be a close race between those two films for highest debut of the July 4th holiday weekend. Ultimately I believe Genisys will manage a better opening, but XXL could certainly over perform. With its long holiday weekend roll out, I wouldn’t be shocked to see its gross be somewhat front loaded. I’ll say it manages to earn slightly more in five days what its predecessor earned in three.
Magic Mike XXL opening weekend prediction: $24.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
31 years after first informing us he’d be back, Arnold Schwarzenegger plays his signature role for the fourth time as Terminator Genisys debuts this Wednesday, hoping to clean up over the July 4th holiday weekend. Jason Clarke, Emilia Clarke, and J.K. Simmons costar with Thor: The Dark World’s Alan Taylor directing. It is a legitimate question to ponder whether this series will continue to lose steam.
This is actually the fifth entry in the three decade old franchise as 2009’s Terminator Salvation underwhelmed with a $42 million opening on its way to a $125 million domestic take. The last pic with Ahnuld was 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines and it also premiered over the Independence Day weekend with a $44 million three day and $72 million five day haul. It ended up earning $150 million overall.
My guess is that this will not match those numbers and Genisys could have a rough time reinvigorating this series. To put it mildly, Schwarzenegger’s post gubernatorial film career has been littered with flops. In fact, his biggest grosser since his screen return that he headlined is Escape Plan at just $25 million total. Obviously Genisys will make more out of the gate than that, but it doesn’t mean it’ll be considered a large success. Reviews so far have been the worst for the franchise as it stands at only 17%. I’ll say it doesn’t manage to do $50 million in its five day rollout and ends up possibly earning less than Salvation when all is said and done.
Terminator Genisys opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $48.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
It’s been a record breaking June 2015 so far and this upcoming weekend looks to keep up the torrid box office pace as three films look to each earn $50M or more. There are two newcomers out: comedy sequel Ted 2 and military dog family drama Max. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
The real question is what comes out on top this weekend? It could be Ted 2, which I have making slightly less than its 2012 predecessor out of the gate (though it could certainly earn more). It could be Jurassic World for the third weekend in a row as it looks to extend its record breaking box office pace. Or it could be Pixar’s Inside Out, which I anticipate having a smaller second weekend decline than Jurassic‘s third weekend drop off. As you’ll see below, I expect it to be a photo finish among all three.
Max should place a distant fourth with Spy rounding out the top five.
And with that, my predictions the weekend’s top five:
1. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $53.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)
2. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $51.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Ted 2
Predicted Gross: $50.8 million
4. Max
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
5. Spy
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
Box Office Results (June 19-21)
Several records once again fell by the wayside this weekend as Jurassic World remained #1 with $106.5 million to bring its total to $402M in just ten days. The dino reboot soared past my $88.3M projection and accomplished the largest second weekend in domestic history. World is well on its way to becoming the biggest grosser of summer 2015.
It may have come in second, but Pixar has much to celebrate with its amazing $90.4 million debut for Inside Out, well above my $71.4M prediction. The critically acclaimed animated feature had the highest opening for a story based on original material, outpacing Avatar‘s $77M previous record breaker. Additionally it scored the second largest debut for a Pixar property after only 2010’s Toy Story 3. It also set the record for biggest debut not to come in at #1 (previously held by the $68M earned by 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow). The only downside is it’s the first Pixar feature not to open on top, but don’t look for Disney to cry into their piles of money too much. Look for Inside Out to continue its impressive run in subsequent weekends.
Holdovers held up better than my estimates as Spy was third with $11.2 million (above my $9.1M estimate). San Andreas took fourth with $8.7 million (ahead of my $5.2M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $75M and $132M.
The only other newcomer, Dope, had a middling premiere with $6.1 million, under my $7.7M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Warner Bros family feature Max, out Friday, has quite a bit working against it when you consider its competition. It won’t be the movie most kids are going to see next weekend factoring in Jurassic World and Inside Out. It won’t be the highest grosser with an animal with Ted 2 opening the same day. It won’t even be the biggest summer grosser with the word Max in it when factoring in that mad one from May.
The studio’s best hope is that critics like it and it becomes a word of mouth sleeper hit, which is an uphill climb. Max tells the story of a military working dog who returns home from Afghanistan and Remember the Titans director Boaz Yakin is behind the camera. Thomas Haden Church, Lauren Graham and Jay Hernandez are among the human costars.
Unless Max succeeds in bringing in a sizable military contingent, the pic seems destined for a premiere in the low to mid teens for a probable fourth place showing next weekend.
One year following the critical and commercial disappointment of A Million Ways to Die in the West, Seth MacFarlane should find himself back in the good graces of audiences with Ted 2, out Friday. The sequel to the 2012 mega hit brings back Mark Wahlberg and most importantly, that foul mouthed talking teddy bear. Mila Kunis is out and Amanda Seyfried is in with Morgan Freeman and Liam Neeson among other new cast members.
Three summers ago, Ted debuted to a terrific $54.4 million on its way to a $218 million domestic take. The real question is whether or not part two exceeds the gross of the original out of the gate. This is certainly possible and it has the potential to reach $6o million or more next weekend. Yet I’m somewhat skeptical. There is a chance that the Ted novelty may have waned slightly and that may cause a debut slightly under its predecessor’s hot start. Critics were kind to the first and we’ve yet to see if that continues here. Its numbers might improve if word of mouth approaches that of the 2012 blockbuster, but that seems unlikely.
I’ll predict Ted 2 falls just shy of the $54 million achieved when Ted became the sleeper hit of summer 2012.
Another record could be broken for the second weekend in a row as Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out debuts this Friday. It will take on the sophomore frame of Jurassic World, which exceeded all expectations this past weekend – to say the least (more on that below). You can read my detailed Inside Out prediction post here:
If Inside Out holds to my prediction, it will provide Pixar with its third highest and largest non-sequel debut in its existence. However, that will probably not be enough to get it to the #1 spot considering what Jurassic will make even it drops close to 60%. That means Inside could set the record for highest non #1 opening in domestic history, which is currently held by 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow with $68.7 million.
The only other newbie this weekend is the urban comedic drama Dope, which I expect to open outside the top five with $4.6 million (I didn’t do an individual post on it).
**Wednesday June 17 bloggers update: I have upgraded my Dope estimate after its announced 2000 screen rollout which is higher than I expected. New prediction is $7.7 million.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:
1. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $88.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $71.4 million
3. Spy
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 42%
4. Dope
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
5. San Andreas
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Box Office Results (June 12-14)
In a word… WOW! Jurassic World. No one really saw this coming as the dino reboot accomplished the #1 domestic box office opening… not of the year, but of all time! Its gross of $208.8 million edged out three year record holder The Avengers, which made $207.4M. I predicted a meager $123.5M debut for Jurassic and, was I way off or what?!?!?! So was everyone else. Clearly the nostalgia factor stemming from the 1993 original and the fact that every kid in America wanted to see it (and Chris Pratt and mostly positive reviews) turned this into an event experience. This puts Jurassic World in a position to be the summer’s biggest hit, something everyone assumed Avengers: Age of Ultron would have little trouble achieving. Amazing.
The dinosaur love contributed to pretty much everything else in the top five dropping more than I anticipated. Spy was second with $15.6 million (I said $19.7M) and its two weeks total is at $56.5M. The Melissa McCarthy comedy may just clear $100M when all is said and done.
San Andreas was third with $10.8 million compared to my $12.6M projection and its total is at $119.1M. Insidious: Chapter 3 made $7.3 million in weekend #2 (under my $8.9M estimate) and it’s made $37.3M. Pitch Perfect 2 was fifth with $6.3 million (for a $171.1M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. My #5 prediction Entourage was sixth with $4.3 million, under my $5.7M prediction and its two weeks total is at a weak $25.8M.
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