A new generation of Griswolds comes to the big screen as Vacation hits theaters this Wednesday. It’s been 32 years since Clark, Ellen, and the kids starred in the now classic original and 18 years since the last installment, the poorly received Vegas Vacation.
Our reboot finds Ed Helms as the grown up Rusty Griswold with Christina Applegate as his wife. Leslie Mann costars as sister Audrey with Chris Hemsworth and Charlie Day among the supporting cast. And as you’ve likely seen from the trailers and TV spots, Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo do return once again.
The name brand and nostalgia factor alone should be enough to get this Vacation off to a pretty healthy start. There is some comedy competition in the form of Trainwreck‘s third weekend, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor. With its five-day roll out, the pic looks poised for a likely second place showing behind the weekend’s other newcomer, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. I’ll say it manages to reach mid 20s over the five day frame.
Vacation opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation prediction, click here:
Tom Cruise is back for his fifth go round as IMF agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, opening Friday, July 31st. The now nineteen year old franchise should give the series another solid hit, following the goodwill left over from 2011’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing fourth entry, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
Besides Cruise, Rogue features returnees Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg and Ving Rhames, in addition to new cast members Rebecca Ferguson and Alec Baldwin. Let’s take a trip down memory lane for openings of past flicks:
Mission: Impossible – $45.4 million debut with eventual $180.9M domestic gross in 1996
Mission: Impossible II – $70.8 million debut over four day Memorial Day weekend in 2000 with $91.8 million premiere since it opened on a Wednesday with eventual $215.4M domestic gross
Mission: Impossible III – $47.7 million debut with eventual $134M domestic gross in 2006
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol – $44.1 million debut over four day Christmas weekend in 2011 with eventual $209.3M domestic gross
As you can see, Protocol technically had the lowest opening of the franchise, but held strong in subsequent post holiday weekends to generate the second largest haul of the series. That bodes pretty well for audience anticipation for Rogue, yet it doesn’t have the benefit of a late year release when titles tend to experience smaller drop offs from weekend to weekend.
Rogue Nation stands little chance of reaching the opening heights achieved by part two, but I do believe it will manage the second highest roll out. I will predict a debut in the low to mid 50s range.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation opening weekend prediction: $52.3 million
Three new titles populate the multiplex this weekend as the video game inspired family comedy Pixels, adaptation of John Green bestseller Paper Towns, and Jake Gyllenhaal boxing drama Southpaw all debut. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
I expect Pixels to easily nab the #1 spot, though it is worth noting that my prediction is higher than some other prognosticators are putting it at. And to be fair, I overestimated Ant-Man this past weekend (more on that below). Still, it’s tough to imagine it not debuting in first place.
It could be a very tight race between Paper Towns, Ant-Man, and Minions for the runner-up position. I am estimating Towns manages to get there with Ant-Man and Minions losing over half their previous frame audiences in their respective second and third weekends.
Amy Schumer’s comedy Trainwreck should suffer the smallest decline of holdovers after its robust roll out. That would leave Southpaw outside of the top five with a sixth place showing and it’ll certainly need to greatly exceed expectations to avoid that fate.
And with that, it’s a top 6 predictions this weekend:
1. Pixels
Predicted Gross: $49 million
2. Paper Towns
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
3. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. Minions
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. Southpaw
Predicted Gross: $12.9 milion
Box Office Results (July 17-19)
Disney/Marvel once again saw its product debut at #1, but Ant-Man managed just the 11th highest opening in their 12 film Marvel Cinematic Universe (only 2008’s The Incredible Hulk started lower). The Paul Rudd pic grossed $57.2 million, well under my $73.3M estimate. Still, expectations were not quite as sky high for this entry and it represents a decent gross, albeit on the lower end of the scale.
Minions dropped to second with $49.2 million, under my $56.9M prediction. The Despicable Me spin-off has amassed $215 million in ten days.
Amy Schumer became a movie star over the weekend as her critically acclaimed Trainwreck posted a fantastic $30 million opening, just ahead of my $27.8M projection. As mentioned, I anticipate solid word of mouth to keep this chugging along over the next couple of weekends.
Pixar’s Inside Out was fourth with $11.5 million (I said $10.5M) for a total of $306 million while Jurassic World was fifth with $11.4 million (I said $11.1M) for an amazing $611 million current gross.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
A ripped Jake Gyllenhaal headlines the boxing drama Southpaw, out Friday and it will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers looking for something out than effects driven sci-fi spectacles and sequels. Antoine Fuqua, director of Training Day and The Equalizer, is behind the camera with Forest Whitaker, Rachel McAdams, and 50 Cent among the supporting cast. 50’s protege Eminem is featured prominently on the soundtrack and in the trailers and TV spots.
Gyllenhaal has been on a roll lately, particularly in the critical community. Last fall’s Nightcrawler gave the actor some of the best reviews of his career and many (including this blogger) feel he was snubbed for a nomination at Oscar time. Southpaw gives him another juicy role, but early word is somewhat mixed (it stands at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time). Gyllenhaal’s recent track record suggests an opening in the low double to digits to mid teens could be a real possibility here. 2011’s Source Code debuted to $14.8 million while the following year’s End of Watch made $13.1 million out of the gate. The aforementioned Nightcrawler premiered with $10.4 million. I have a difficult time envisioning this matching his best opening of recent years – 2013’s Prisoners which made $20.8 million.
I’ll predict Southpaw is left with a start right in range with End of Watch, which would be fairly decent considering its rumored $30 million budget.
Southpaw opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
Last summer, the box office potency of YA author John Green flexed its muscle when The Fault in Our Stars debuted to $48 million. On Friday, Paper Towns arrives and it’s another adaptation from one of Green’s bestsellers. It is expected that the involvement of his name alone should propel Towns to a healthy start.
The teen drama stars relative unknowns (though probably not for long) Cara Delevingne and Nat Wolff. Reviews have been fairly strong and it currently holds a solid 83% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s easy to imagine that Towns will succeed in bringing in a hefty portion of its intended younger female demographic.
That said, nobody expects it to reach the heights of Stars and it shouldn’t. It could over perform and take in $30M+, but I feel a more likely scenario is an opening in the mid to high 20s. Either way, considering its tiny reported $2.4 budget, 20th Century Fox should be celebrating next weekend.
Paper Towns opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million
It may have plenty of recognizable human stars like Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Michelle Monaghan, Peter Dinklage, and Josh Gad, but Pixels box office success will likely rest with its other costars. That would be Pac-Man, Donkey Kong, Centipede, Space Invaders, and many other characters from the iconic video games of many years past.
The Columbia Pictures release comes from director Chris Columbus (who made the first two Home Alone and Harry Potter pics and Mrs. Doubtfire) and has the fascinating premise of bringing the aforementioned arcade heroes and villains to life as they crash Earth. Pixels comes with a hefty reported budget of $110 million and has been very heavily advertised in recent weeks.
Sandler’s recent history at the multiplex has been mixed. This decade, the Grown Ups flicks have performed well, but there’s been flops such as That’s My Boy and last summer’s Blended. Yet, as mentioned, Mr. Sandler is not the main draw here. The film does give him a highly legit shot at his personal best premiere.
Pixels will rely greatly on moviegoers curious to see their favorite game creatures populate the silver screen and also hope to bring in youngsters who have no clue what an arcade really was. As I see it, there’s a pretty wide range for how this could perform. At worst, it could flop in the mid 20s and struggle to make its budget stateside. The ceiling for this could be as high as $60 million out of the gate if its robust marketing campaign succeeds. The competition for family audience is there – Minions will be in its third weekend with Ant-Man in its second and that could be a factor if it under performs.
I believe Pixels will post a solid opening and manage to become Sandler’s largest debut ever, just edging out his 2005 comedy The Longest Yard which made $47.6 million. How it holds up in subsequent weekends with largely be determined by the word of mouth, which is an unknown currently.
Two new pictures look to make waves at the box office when they open this weekend: Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Judd Apatow directed Amy Schumer comedy Trainwreck. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
Ant-Man has a wide range of possibility for how it opens out of the gate. If it debuts on the low end of expectations (mid 5os), it could find itself playing runner-up to the second weekend of Minions. However, my projection has it reaching #1 fairly easily.
Minions could see its sophomore frame lose about half its audience after the massive premiere it achieved over the weekend. That should leave the critically acclaimed Trainwreck in third place with a projected healthy opening in line with what Bridesmaids accomplished four summers ago.
Blockbuster leftovers Jurassic World and Inside Out should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:
1. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $73.3 million
2. Minions
Predicted Gross: $56.9 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
4. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
Box Office Results (July 10-12)
As mentioned, the animated Despicable Me franchise spin-off Minions rocked the charts with $115.7 million, making it the second largest animated feature debut of all time (after Shrek the Third‘s $121.6M). This is well above my $96.4M prediction and finds this series in wonderful shape as it bodes very well for Despicable Me 3 in the summer of 2017.
Jurassic World was second with $18.1 million, edging my $16.3M estimate. The dino phenomenon stands at $590M domestically, good for fourth all time. Pixar’s Inside Out took third with $17.6 million, in line with my $17.3M projection and its total is at $284M.
In its second weekend, Terminator Genisys was fourth with $13.8 million, on target with my $14.5M projection. It’s made a middling $68M so far.
Horror flick The Gallows opened in fifth with a so-so $9.8 million, a touch above my $8.9M estimate while Magic Mike XXL was sixth in its sophomore engagement with $9.5 million, holding up considerably better than my $5.8M prediction. The sequel has taken in a less than expected $48M.
Finally, the Ryan Reynolds action thriller Self/less stumbled with an 8th place showing at just $5.4 million, well under my $9.7M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Comedies from Spy to Entourage to Ted 2 have yet to become the breakout entry in the genre this summer and next Friday, Judd Apatow’s Trainwreck will throw its hat in the ring. The prospects for it are rather promising as the director has had a sterling track record in helping kick start the film careers of Steve Carell, Seth Rogen, and Kristin Wiig.
Trainwreck is the first major starring role for Amy Schumer, the popular standup who’s enjoyed critical acclaim with her Comedy Central show “Inside Amy Schumer”. The pic has an eclectic supporting cast that includes Bill Hader, Tilda Swinton, Brie Larson, John Cena, and, in his first movie role, NBA superstar Lebron James.
The early word is extremely positive and Trainwreck currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Looking over Apatow’s directorial resume, it would seem to stand a shot at earning his all-time record opening. In order to accomplish that, it’d need to surpass the $30.6 million made by Knocked Up eight summers ago. This is one comedy that could succeed in bringing in a male and female audience (on the male side, it probably doesn’t hurt that the pic was advertised heavily during the NBA Finals, when Mr. James was playing).
Ultimately, I think it will fall a bit short of Apatow’s best debut and open more in line with the Judd produced Bridesmaids, which took in $26.2M in the summer of 2011. Like that, this should do for Schumer what Bridesmaids did for Wiig – herald the announcement of a new comedic force on the silver screen.
Trainwreck opening weekend prediction: $27.8 million
Next Friday, the 12th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is unveiled as Ant-Man makes its debut. Unlike some of the more recent entries like the Avengers and Captain America and Thor sequels, there is uncertainty as to how well this one will perform.
The title character (played by Paul Rudd) is certainly not one of the better known comic book heroes in Marvel lore and the film is said to be more comedic than anything previously contained in the MCU. It’s also said to feel smaller in scale than what we’re used to, especially compared to the gargantuan scope of the Ultron pic from two months ago. With that said, early reviews have been mostly solid and it stands at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics have noted it should be an audience pleaser.
Peyton Reed directs with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly backing up Rudd in the supporting cast. Ant-Man will attempt to bring in both action fans and families as the studio has done with these pictures on an amazingly consistent basis. In some ways, Ant-Man has some similarities to last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy. Its box office prospects was met with skepticism for quite a while with some of the same complaints lobbed at it. Too light, too comedic, not enough name recognition for the property. That’s until Guardians picked up scorching word of mouth prior to its release and the result was it became last summer’s biggest grosser.
It would be rather shocking to see Ant-Man approach the $94 million roll out that Guardians enjoyed. There could be a wide range for how this opens. It could exceed projections and see low to mid 80s or it could compete with 2008’s The Incredible Hulk’s $55 million opening for lowest start to any pic in the MCU.
My gut says the more probable scenario is Ant-Man just managing to outdo the premieres of two other Marvel franchise openers, 2011’s Captain America: The First Avenger and Thor, which both made $65 million out of the gate. That puts my estimate in the low to mid 70s, which would be considered a very nice beginning for this next potential franchise.
The box office stranglehold held by Pixar’s Inside Out and Jurassic World looks to finally come to an end this weekend as Despicable Me franchise spin-off Minions looks to easily dominate the box office. Two new entries also populate the crowded marketplace: Ryan Reynolds action thriller Self/less and found footage horror flick The Gallows. You can read my detailed prediction posts on all the newcomers here:
As stated, Minions could certainly flirt with an opening over $100 million, but I have it opening just shy of that mark. As for Self/less and The Gallows, I believe both will struggle to even make double digits and I’m predicting they won’t get there.
Current champs Inside Out and Jurassic should both slide a spot to the 2 and 3 position while dropping in the low 40s. In its second weekend, I’m predicting Terminator Genisys will fall a bit further than that after its disappointing opening while Magic Mike XXL looks to suffer a hefty decline after its surprisingly weak debut over the weekend.
And with that, we’ll make it a top seven prediction for this weekend:
1. Minions
Predicted Gross: $96.4 million
2. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 41%)
3. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Terminator Genisys
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. Self/less
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
6. The Gallows
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
7. Magic Mike XXL
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (July 3-5)
While two holdovers continued their impressive reign at multiplexes, two newcomer sequels failed to meet expectations.
Pixar’s Inside Out narrowly reached the #1 spot with $29.7 million, finally breaking Jurassic World‘s three week hold at the top. This was just under my $30.5M estimate. Its three week total stands at a rock solid $245 million.
Jurassic slipped to second with $29.2 million, on pace with my $28.7M projection. The movie of summer 2015 has amassed a gargantuan $556 million at press time and looks to reach $650M when all is said and done.
In third, Terminator Genisys got off to a disappointing start with $27 million over the three day weekend and $42.4 million for its five day holiday gross. This is below my respective estimates of $31.2M and $48.4M. The franchise appears to have run out of gas and Genisys will need truly impressive international numbers to justify a sequel. As for Arnold’s post gubernatorial film career, it continues to be littered with financial letdowns.
It had a much smaller budget than Terminator, but final results were lackluster for the week’s other new sequel Magic Mike XXL. The Channing Tatum pic made just $12.8 million over the three day weekend and $27.8 million since its Wednesday roll out, far under my respective projections of $24.8M and $44M. Considering the original three years ago made $39.1 million in its first three days, this is an incredibly low opening.
And in even further bad grossing sequel news, Ted 2 continued its way lower than anticipated performance with a massive 67% drop in weekend #2 with only $11.1 million, under my $16.4M prediction. Its two week total stands at $58 million and it is very unlikely to even reach $100M. The original three summers ago made $218M.
And that’ll do it for now, ladies and gents. Until next time…
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