A lot has happened in the film careers of Jesse Eisenberg and Kristen Stewart since they starred in 2009’s Adventureland. Eisenberg earned an Oscar nod for The Social Network, starred in 2013’s summer sleeper hit Now You See Me, and got himself cast as Lex Luthor in next year’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Stewart furthered her star status with more Twilight pics and Snow White and the Huntsman. Now the pair reunite for American Ultra, an action comedy out next Friday. I am highly skeptical this movie will be among their big earners.
Ultra has a supporting cast that includes Topher Grace, Connie Britton, Walton Goggins, Bill Pullman, and Tony Hale. The pic seems to be flying a bit under the radar. Solid reviews could assist yet I wonder whether this manages to even post double digits in its opening. Ultra should have no trouble topping the $5.7 million debut of Adventureland (at least I think), but I will project it falls just under $10 million and likely fades fast.
American Ultra opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.
When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million
2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
5. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.
Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.
Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.
Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.
Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).
Telling the story of one of hip hop music’s most iconic groups, Straight Outta Compton hits theaters next Friday and could be poised for a stealthy debut. Centering on the story of N.W.A. and its members Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy E, MC Ren and DJ Yella, Compton is directed by F. Gary Gray, who made music videos for Dre and Cube back in the day prior to becoming an accomplished maker of Friday and The Italian Job, among others. A cast of relative unknowns formulate the cast with the exception of Paul Giamatti as band manager Jerry Heller. Cube’s son O’Shea Jackson Jr. plays his pop.
Fans of the hip hop genre should flock to this. Shot on a meager $25 million budget, it stands to top that (probably easily) in its first weekend. Dre and Cube served as executive producers and Dre has a highly awaited album coming out tomorrow that’s inspired by the film. Reviews have been strong with a current rating of 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While Compton is unlikely to reach the heights of Eminem’s 8 Mile ($51 million debut) in 2002 when that artist was at the top of his drawing power, I think believe Compton should rule its weekend. I believe it could approach and maybe surpass $40 million for its premiere, I’ll go just a tad under.
Straight Outta Compton opening weekend prediction: $39.3 million
For my The Man from U.N.C.L.E. prediction, click here:
A summer action pic based on a popular 1960s spy TV show? No, not Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, but The Man from U.N.C.L.E. which opens next Friday. Don’t expect this to reach close to Rogue numbers. Sherlock Holmes director Guy Ritchie is behind the camera with Man of Steel Henry Cavill and Lone Ranger Armie Hammer in the leads. Ex Machina’s Alicia Vikander and Hugh Grant are among the supporting players.
While the marketing campaign has been fairly robust, it’s hard to see U.N.C.L.E. breaking through in any significant way. Straight Outta Compton, debuting the same day, appears poised for a splashy start while Fantastic Four will be entering weekend #2 with Rogue Nation likely doing pretty strong biz in its third frame. None of the stars here are capable of opening a picture and familiarity with the TV show from 50 years is limited.
Add that up and I’ll predict this $75 million budgeted effort doesn’t reach $20 million out of the gate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Straight Outta Compton prediction, click here:
August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.
After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $47.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. Ricki and the Flash
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.
Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.
Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.
Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?
While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.
Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
Oscar winning director Jonathan Demme and Oscar winning screenwriter Diablo Cody bring us the comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, out Friday. The film stars frequent Oscar winner Meryl Streep in the role of a rock star who abandoned her family for stardom with the actress’s real life daughter Mamie Gummer portraying her movie daughter. Kevin Kline and musician Rick Springfield are among the supporting players.
TriStar Pictures is hoping that Ricki’s numbers will be assisted by a sizable female and adult audience. It could work to an extent, but despite the pedigree involved, the pic isn’t really generating awards buzz. It’s hard to see the ceiling for this being greater than high teens though I’m skeptical it’ll reach that gross out of the gate. I believe a debut in the lower single digits is the more likely scenario.
Ricki and the Flash opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
Joel Edgerton directs, writes, and costars in the psychological thriller The Gift, out Friday and I think it stands a fair shot at becoming a summer sleeper hit. The pic, which also features Jason Bateman and Rebecca Hall, has featured some rather effective trailers and TV spots and it could succeed at bringing in a more adult crowd than your typical product you see in the August frame.
So far reviews have been quite strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. None of the key players are box office draws and Bateman is much better known for comedic roles, but the robust marketing campaign could succeed in bringing in a larger audience than anticipated.
I’ll predict The Gift yields positive returns for its studio, STX Entertainment and manages a debut in the mid to high teens.
The Gift opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million
Chronicle director Josh Trank spearheads 20th Century Fox’s reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, some eight years after the last entry in the series. The big question is: how much of a clamoring is there for these heroes return to the silver screen?
Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara and Jamie Bell headline the cast in this reported $122 million tentpole that marks the third and final superhero flick of the summer, after Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron and Ant-Man. Fantastic Four has no hope of reaching Ultron numbers and may be lucky to even be in Ant-Man’s territory.
2005’s original Fantastic Four debuted to $56 million on its way to a $154 million domestic gross while its 2007 sequel Rise of the Silver Surfer opened slightly higher with $58 million. The follow-up did end up earning less overall with $134 million. Both premieres are right in line with Ant-Man’s $57 million first take some three weeks ago.
While any major league comic book film should have no problem making over $40 million out of the gate, this one’s ceiling may not be significantly higher. I’m not convinced audiences are overly eager for this series to come back and early word of mouth has been mixed, at best. I don’t see this making what Ant-Man or the first two Four pics made and a debut in the high 40s seems likely.
Fantastic Four opening weekend prediction: $47.7 million
As July comes to a close, two new entries look to nab the top spots at the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and comedy reboot Vacation debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Tom Cruise’s fifth go round as Ethan Hunt should have no problem at all taking the #1 spot while I look for Vacation to land in the runner-up spot.
As for holdovers, I look for Minions to hold up better than current champ Ant-Man, allowing them to place third and fourth. Adam Sandler’s Pixels had a very poor premiere (more on that below) and I look for it to experience the heftiest decline, putting it in a close race for fifth with Trainwreck and Southpaw.
And with that, we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:
1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $52.3 million
2. Vacation
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Minions
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. Pixels
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)
6. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)
7. Southpaw
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
Marvel’s Ant-Man surprisingly held onto the #1 slot in its second weekend with $24.9 million, in line with my $25.6M projection. It has grossed a solid $106M in its first ten days of release.
The “surprise” is that Pixels was expected to top the charts, yet it tanked with a $24 million opening – less than half of my extremely generous $49M prediction. The critically panned video game pic represents another poor performance from Adam Sandler, whose box office star has been waning in recent years.
Minions was third with $22.9 million, on target with my $23.4M estimate and the animated hit has brought in $262M.
Trainwreck held up admirably for fourth in weekend #2 with $17.2 million (a bit under my $18.7M prediction) for a total of $61 million. The Judd Apatow comedy should top $100M when all is said and done.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s boxing drama Southpaw exceeded most expectations with a sturdy $16.7 million, ahead of my $12.9M projection.
Finally, teen romance Paper Towns (based on a John Green bestseller) had a less than expected roll out with just $12.6 million, considerably below my $26.8M estimate. While Towns has a tiny budget and will easily profit, this is disappointing considering The Fault in Our Stars (also based on a Green novel) made $48M out of the gate last summer.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
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