Tag: box office predictions

Box Office Predictions: September 4-7

Unlike most holiday weekend frames, Labor Day isn’t exactly known for studios bringing out heavy hitters and that remains unchanged in 2015. There are two new releases finding their way to theaters over the long weekend: franchise reboot The Transporter: Refueled and Robert Redford led A Walk in the Woods (which opens Wednesday). You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/28/the-transporter-refueled-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/29/a-walk-in-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect much from either. While Transporter has a reasonable shot at debuting #1, a lot of summer holdovers end up doing more Labor Day weekend than they did the previous weekend. If that holds true for Straight Outta Compton, as I believe it will, that means it will be #1 for the fourth straight weekend. As I see it, Transporter could be second or third depending on how well Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation increases its gross. The Christian themed War Room got off to a much better than anticipated start, but I actually see it losing close to a third of its opening weekend audience while No Escape (which also debuted above expectations) may lose about a fourth. That would leave Mr. Redford and his Woods in sixth place.

And with that, my predictions for the four day Labor Day weekend top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. The Transporter: Refueled

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 23%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (Friday to Monday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

The NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton made it a three peat this weekend with $13.1 million (just above my $12.5M estimate) to bring its impressive total to $134 million. While I pretty much got that right, I stumbled when it came to predicting the weekend’s newcomers.

The aforementioned War Room easily beat expectations with a terrific $11.3 million for second place (surging above my $5.7M prediction). Considering its reported $3M budget, this is a wonderful beginning for it.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation took third with $8.1 million, just beyond my $7.4M projection for a total of $170M.

Just behind Mission was the Owen Wilson/Pierce Brosnan thriller No Escape which also made $8.1 million over the traditional weekend and $10.1 million since its Wednesday debut. This outshines my respective predictions of $4.7M and $6.3M and is a better start than most anticipated.

Rounding out the top five was Sinister 2 in its sophomore frame with $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and its two week total is an unimpressive $18M.

Where I really went wrong was with the Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends, which had an absolutely putrid $1.7 million start for only 13th place. I had it second with $10.9M… oops! Clearly audiences had zero interest in Friends and it managed only an embarrassing $770 per screen average.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

A Walk in the Woods Box Office Prediction

A host of recognizable faces populate this Wednesday’s adventure comedy A Walk in the Woods, but that may not mean it will be granted box office success. Robert Redford, Nick Nolte, Emma Thompson, Nick Offerman and Mary Steenburgen headline this pic based on a 1998 novel by travel writer Bill Bryson, whom Mr. Redford portrays. Ken Kwapis directs and he’s certainly had a fascinating career with titles like the Cyndi Lauper 1988 vehicle Vibes and Fran Drescher’s Beautician and the Beast to his credit.

Critics have not been impressed and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently at 45%. The marketing campaign has been subdued and there could be many moviegoers who simply aren’t aware of Woods existence. Its five day opening number is unlikely to reach double digits and I question whether even $5 million is feasible. I think it’ll just top that, which isn’t exactly an accomplishment.

A Walk in the Woods opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my The Transporter: Refueled prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/28/the-transporter-refueled-box-office-prediction/

The Transporter Refueled Box Office Prediction

On Labor Day weekend, the fourth entry in the Transporter franchise hits theaters nearly seven years after the third edition with The Transporter: Refueled. A lot has changed in the meantime. Most notably, the series star Jason Statham is nowhere to be found and English rapper/actor Ed Skrein is the leading man. Cowritten by Luc Besson, who’s scripted the other films, Refueled will attempt to revitalize a franchise that had begun losing steam with part three.

It won’t be an easy task. The original pic in 2002 debuted to $9 million with an eventual $25 million domestic take. 2005’s Transporter 2 marked the highs of the series with a $16 million premiere and $43 million eventual gross. 2008’s Transporter 3 made $12 million out of the gate with a $31 million haul. The absence of Statham and long wait between pics leads me to believe The Transporter: Refueled may struggle to reach double digits. I think it’ll just manage it, if only due to the lack of product currently in the marketplace.

The Transporter: Refueled opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million (Friday to Monday for Labor Day weekend)

For my A Walk in the Woods prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/29/a-walk-in-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

War Room Box Office Prediction

It happens sometimes and we have a late entry in my box office predictin’ business as the Christian themed drama War Room opens tomorrow on an estimated on 1100 screens. That’s enough exposure that the pic could sneak into the top five, considering this should be a lackluster weekend at the multiplex.

Director Alex Kendrick has seen modest box office successes before with his faith based works, particularly 2008’s Fireproof with Kirk Cameron. It opened with $6 million on its way to a $33 million domestic take. Kendrick’s last feature, 2011’s Courageous, opened with $3 million with an eventual $9 million gross. These are great numbers considering they cost very little to produce (War Room‘s budget is just a reported $3M).

I will be revising my top five predictions for the weekend as I believe Room will snag the #4 spot and outdo another newcomer, No Escape.

War Room opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my We Are Your Friends prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/20/we-are-your-friends-box-office-prediction/

For my No Escape prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/21/no-escape-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 28-30

BLOGGER’S NOTE (Thursday, August 27) – I am revising my top five predictions and accounting for the Christian themed drama War Room (opening on approximately 1100 screens). I believe it will manage to snag the #4 spot.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/27/war-room-box-office-prediction/

The last weekend of August should bring forth some serious box office doldrums as it usually does this time of year. There are two new entries out: the Zac Efron DJ drama We Are Your Friends and Owen Wilson action thriller No Escape. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/20/we-are-your-friends-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/21/no-escape-box-office-prediction/

I frankly don’t expect much from either, but Friends stands the better chance of over performing and possibly even nabbing the #1 spot. I don’t think it’ll quite get there though and that means Straight Outta Compton should manage to stay #1 for the third weekend in a row. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop from 2nd to 3rd.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. We Are Your Friends

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The N.W.A. biopic continued to rule the charts as Straight Outta Compton took in $26.3 million in its sophomore frame, just above my $24.6M estimate. The acclaimed pic has amassed an impressive $111 million in ten days.

Staying in the runner-up spot was Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation which added $11.4 million to its coffers, just ahead of my $10.4M projection. Its total stands at $157M.

Horror sequel Sinister 2 sputtered with just $10.5 million, well below my $16.2M prediction and well under the $18 million earned by the original for its start. Hitman: Agent 47 debuted in fourth with an unremarkable $8.3 million, though it did top my $6M estimate.

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. dropped to fifth in weekend #2 with $7.3 million, in line with my $7.1M prediction. Its sleepy two week total is at $26M. Finally, the Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra tanked in sixth place with just $5.4 million, falling below my $9.8M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

No Escape Box Office Prediction

Seeing that a number of Owen Wilson comedies have under performed recently, it’s tough to envision a scenario where his late August action thriller No Escape gains any traction with moviegoers when it opens on Wednesday. The pic casts Wilson as a businessman trapped with his family in Southeast Asia during a military coup. Lake Bell and Pierce Brosnan costar.

The trailers and TV spots do little to inspire much confidence. Frankly, No Escape looks like something that could have as easily gone the direct to VOD route. It’s probably no accident this is arriving the final week of summer, which is primarily a dumping ground for product the studios don’t have much faith in. I believe Escape will struggle to make double digits, even in its expanded five day roll out and it’ll probably be available on the aforementioned VOD quite soon.

No Escape opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my We Are Your Friends prediction, click here:

We Are Your Friends Box Office Prediction

For my War Room prediction, click here:

War Room Box Office Prediction

We Are Your Friends Box Office Prediction

In his first major role since last summer’s hit Neighbors, Zac Efron is back in theaters with the musical drama We Are Your Friends next Friday. As you will recall, it was music that first made Efron a star with the High School Musical series. The pic finds its lead as a DJ struggling to enter the popular EDM scene. Emily Ratajkowski, Wes Bentley and Jon Bernthal costar.

For those thinking this is a return to Efron’s high school crooning days, the R rating would indicate otherwise. Friends stands no chance of reaching the heights of Neighbors, which rode a wave of positive buzz to blockbuster status. I believe this is more likely to perform similar to Efron’s pic before that one – That Awkward Moment, which earned $8.7 million for its start in spring 2014.

For Warner Bros, this is a rather low risk venture as it comes with a reported budget of only $10 million. I’ll predict it just manages to outdo that budget in weekend one.

We Are Your Friends opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my No Escape prediction, click here:

No Escape Box Office Prediction

For my War Room prediction, click here:

War Room Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: August 21-23

As we enter the doldrums of late August at the box office, we have three new entries populating the multiplexes: horror sequel Sinister 2, Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra, and video game inspired Hitman: Agent 47. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/sinister-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/hitman-agent-47-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of them to outdo the second weekend of current champ Straight Outta Compton, which made a boatload of cash this weekend (more on that below). Sinister 2 seems to be the only one with a shot, as horror films do often over perform. I expect both Ultra and Hitman to premiere under double digits.

Compton should actually drop precipitously in its sophomore frame considering many moviegoers likely wanted to rush out and see it. For comparison sake, Eminem’s 8 Mile dipped 62% in its second weekend and Compton could drop close to that (which is nothing against it considering it made way more out of the gate than anybody figured it would).

As for other holdovers, I look for Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation to eek out a third place showing over Ultra and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. taking the five spot in weekend #2 after its disappointing opening.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 59%)

2. Sinister 2

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. American Ultra

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Hitman: Agent 47

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

As mentioned, the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton capitalized on its great reviews, music, and word of mouth and had a massive opening that exceeded all expectations. The film grossed an astonishing $60.2 million, blasting past my $39.3M estimate. With a reported budget of just $29 million, Compton represents another blockbuster for Universal Pictures in 2015.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation dropped to second in weekend #3 with $17.1 million, a bit above my $14.9M projection. The hit fifth entry in Tom Cruise’s franchise stands at $138M so far.

The news was not good for The Man from U.N.C.L.E., which stalled with just a $13.4 million opening, under my $18.6M prediction. Audience attention was clearly elsewhere over the weekend and this planned franchise will likely end here.

Speaking of possibly dead franchises, the news kept getting worse for last weekend’s bomb Fantastic Four. It dropped a dramatic 68% in weekend #2 with just $8.1 million, under my predicted $11.1M. The Fox property has taken in an embarrassing $42M in ten days.

Finally, the Jason Bateman/Joel Edgerton suspense pic The Gift took in $6.5 million in its second weekend, right in line with my $6.3M estimate. The critically applauded film has made a respectable $23M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Hitman: Agent 47 Box Office Prediction

Based on a video game series, the action spectacle Hitman: Agent 47 hits theaters next Friday and it may be a prime example of a late August summer release that gets lost in the shuffle. The pic was originally meant to be a starring vehicle for Paul Walker before his death in 2013.

Stepping into the lead role is Rupert Friend, one of the stars of Showtime’s “Homeland”. The supporting cast includes Hannah Ware, Zachary Quinto, and Ciaran Hinds. While 20th Century Fox has been promoting Hitman with plenty of TV spots, I’m just not sure how this breaks through with other action fare like Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. out there.

As I see it, Hitman: Agent 47 would be very lucky to top double digits out of the gate and I don’t really think it gets too close to that.

Hitman: Agent 47 opening weekend prediction: $6 million

For my Sinister 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/sinister-2-box-office-prediction/

For my American Ultra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

Sinister 2 Box Office Prediction

Sinister 2 opens next Friday and hopes to replicate the success of its 2012 predecessor that became a sleeper hit. This time around, expectations may be a little higher but I’m not convinced it’ll even reach the domestic take of its predecessor.

The original Sinister capitalized on solid reviews and opened to a robust $18 million in October 2012 on its way to a $48 million domestic haul. The sequel only finds one returning cast member with James Ransone as a cop. Ethan Hawke, the film’s original star, is nowhere to be found which makes sense if you’ve seen the picture.

While horror enthusiasts mostly regarded Sinister with approval, I’m not so sure fans will rush out to see its sequel. I believe Sinister 2 will have a tough time even matching the $18M mark and an opening in the mid teens seems more likely.

Sinister 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million

For my American Ultra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

For my Hitman: Agent 47 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/hitman-agent-47-box-office-prediction/