2016 has been a terrific year for animated movies with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets. The love isn’t likely to extend to The Wild Life, opening next weekend. It comes from Belgium and centers on a story involving Robinson Crusoe.
StudioCanal is releasing Life on approximately 2200 screens, so the opportunity is certainly there for family audiences to sign up. Yet this seems to be flying way under the radar and many younger moviegoers and their parents will probably just sit this one out. In fact, this could come in lower than the dismal opening of Ratchet & Clank, which earned just $4.8 million out of the gate in April. I’ll predict it will.
The Wild Life opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
If you haven’t heard much about The Disappointments Room – all I can say is that’s something you share with this blogger. It opens next weekend on approximately 1500 screens and I’ll be damned if I’ve seen a TV spot for it yet. That doesn’t bode well.
It does have some recognizable names and faces behind it. D.J. Caruso, maker of Distrubia, Eagle Eye, and I Am Number Four, directs with Kate Beckinsale, Lucas Till, and Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) among the cast. It’s written by Wentworth Miller, star of TV’s “Prison Break”. Billed as a horror film, maybe it would stand a decent chance at OK box office dollars if anyone knew much about it. After all, the genre has performed quite well in 2016.
However, Rogue Pictures appears to have little confidence in selling it and I’ll predict there’s lot of disappointment in the rooms of their offices come next weekend.
The Disappointments Room opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Screen Gems has quite a profitable enterprise going for the last two years and will try to keep it up for a third with When the Bough Breaks, opening next weekend. The thriller stars Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Jaz Sinclair and was produced for a mere $13 million.
In 2014, the studio put out the similarly themed No Good Deed. The result was a $24.2 million opening. Last year, it was The Perfect Guy (also featuring Chestnut) and it took in $25.9 million for its start. These romantic potboilers have largely appealed to African-American female audiences over 30 and are pretty much critic proof (Perfect Guy didn’t bother to screen for reviewers).
I don’t see much reason why Bough wouldn’t break out in the same way. In fact, I believe it stands an excellent chance at being #1 next weekend over the Clint Eastwood directed/Tom Hanks starring Sully. A debut in the low to mid 20s looks probable for another Screen Gems cash cow.
When the Bough Breaks opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million
***BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/08/16): I’ve caved on Sully prediction. My $19.8M prediction is clearly too low, so I’m switching to $28.5M.
Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks mark their first collaboration together in Sully, landing in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of Captain “Sully” Sullenberger and his “Miracle on the Hudson” water heroics in 2009 and drama that followed. Costars include Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney.
The film looks to break in adult audiences burnt out on summer blockbusters and having Mr. Hanks in the title role won’t hurt. Looking over his last two wide release starring roles, 2013’s Captain Phillips opened to $25.7 million (I would argue it had more buzz). Last fall’s Bridge of Spies premiered with $15.3 million.
**UPDATED to $28.5M prediction
Even with its familiar and much reported on subject matter, I believe Sully will probably place in between those two efforts. Good reviews and a lack of competition could lift it past that and this is something that could have solid legs with positive word of mouth. I’ll project it gets just under $30M for its start. That would actually give Mr. Eastwood his second highest directorial debut after the massive $89 million that his previous effort (2014’s American Sniper) brought in.
Sully opening weekend prediction: $28.5 million
For my When the Bough Breaks prediction, click here:
The 2016 fall movie kicks off in muted fashion (per usual) with two new entries debuting: sci-fi thriller Morgan and period piece romantic drama The Light Between Oceans. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I’m not expecting either to make much of a splash and I’m predicting Light will just outshine Morgan for the #3 spot. Labor Day weekend has shown in past years that holdovers often don’t lose much of their audience from the previous weekend. In fact, in many cases, its percentage can increase a bit.
This will probably not hold true for current #1 Don’t Breathe, which had a smashing weekend out of the gate (more on that below). Like most horror titles. it should lose a fairly hefty percentage of its opening weekend crowd. Yet it’s likely to remain #1, unless one of the newbies surpasses expectations or Suicide Squad holds even better than forecast. Kubo and the Two Strings likely will round out the top five, though Pete’s Dragon may challenge it for that spot.
As for my blog poll on the two newcomers – 45% believe my Morgan estimate is Just About Right with 39% saying it’s Too High and 16% saying Too Low. With The Light Between Oceans, 40% think it’s Too High, 33% Just About Right, and 27% Too Low.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the holiday weekend that includes Friday to Sunday and Friday to Monday estimates:
1. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $13 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.7 million (Friday to Monday)
2. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.9 million (Friday to Monday)
3. The Light Between Oceans
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)
4. Morgan
Predicted Gross: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $8 million (Friday to Monday)
Box Office Results (August 26-28)
Low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe continued a solid season for the genre with a fantastic $26.4 million debut (over double my meager $12.4M projection). The critically heralded project, with a reported budget of only $9.9 million, opened beyond even the rosiest of expectations, ousting Suicide Squad from its three-week reign at #1.
Squad dropped to second with $12.2 million (a bit ahead of my $10.6M estimate) for a four-week tally of $283M.
Animated Kubo and the Two Strings actually rose a spot to #3 with $7.8 million in its sophomore frame (in line with $7.5M prediction) for a ten day gross of $24M. A much different animated tale, Sausage Party, was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.6M) for a $79M tally.
Opening softly in fifth was the Jason Statham sequel Mechanic: Resurrection with $7.4 million (a bit under my $8.5M forecast).
Following closely behind in sixth was Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, also with $7.4 million (I said $6.6M) for a $54M haul.
War Dogs slipped from third to seventh in its second weekend with $7 million (I said $7.4M) for a $27M overall gross.
Bad Moms continued its impressive run in eight place with $5.5 million (I said $5.4M) for a $95M total. Jason Bourne was ninth with $5.1 million ($4.6M prediction here) for a gross of $149M. Ben-Hur continued its disastrous run in 10th with $4.5 million (a bit below my $5.2M estimate) for a total of only $19M.
There were a pair of limited releases – one that opened OK and the other not so much. Southside with You, dramatizing the first date of first couple Barack and Michelle Obama, managed $2.8 million on 813 screens for 14th place (it’ll expand a bit wider this weekend). Boxing drama Hands of Stone stumbled with just $1.7 million (below my $3.2M projection) on 810 screens for 16th place.
And finally – on this sad day for movie fans – a little of the incomparable Mr. Gene Wilder from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. May he rest in peace.
The Light Between Oceans opens over Labor Day weekend and hopes to bring in a sizable female crowd to combat the typical box office doldrums of this particular holiday weekend. The World War I era romantic drama stars Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender and Oscar winners Alicia Vikander and Rachel Weisz. Based on a 2012 novel by M.L. Stedman, it’s directed by Derek Cianfrance, best known for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines.
Light‘s best hope at audience exposure should be if reviews are strong and it generates any Oscar buzz. This is an unknown at press time. That said, films that premiere over Labor Day typically have a tough time breaking out (this is a traditionally very slow time at multiplexes). I’ll predict Oceans manages to just break double digits over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a couple million added for the Monday extension of the holiday frame.
The Light Between Oceans opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)
The science fiction thriller Morgan hits theaters over Labor Day weekend. Directed by Luke Scott – scion of Ridley (you know, the guy who made Alien and Blade Runner) – the pic centers on a young girl who’s developed in a lab and obtains super human qualities. When she starts to cause trouble, all sorts of “stranger things” (so to speak) begin happening.
Ridley executive produces his son’s first feature and the cast features Kate Mara, Anya Taylor-Joy, Toby Jones, Rose Leslie, Boyd Holbrook, Michelle Yeoh, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Paul Giamatti. This is unlikely to make an impression with audiences like the aforementioned classics of the elder Scott’s resume.
Morgan is debuting on the holiday weekend least known for producing hits. This is a historically slow time at the box office where newbies often struggle to achieve anything above low double digits. I believe that will hold true here with a four-day haul reaching just that.
Morgan opening weekend prediction: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Light Between Oceans prediction, click here:
***BLOGGER’S UPDATE (08/23/16): It was announced today by the Weinstein Company that they are significantly changing their release pattern for Hands of Stone. The film was originally scheduled to debut this Friday on approximately 2,000 screens. Now, it will premiere on only 800 screens with a wider roll-out on Wednesday (08/31). This forces a shift in my prediction for it. My $6.1 million estimate is now $3.9 million. That would leave it at #11 this weekend based on my projections.
****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below.
The 2016 summer movie season comes to a close this weekend and it does so in a manner in which most late Augusts do… with a whimper. There are three newbies debuting. None are expected to create major waves. They are: Jason Statham action sequel Mechanic: Resurrection, Sam Raimi produced horror pic Don’t Breathe, and Robert Duran boxing biopic Hands of Stone with Edgar Ramirez and Robert De Niro. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:
I don’t have any of the newcomers making double digits out of the gate. I will note that my blog readers are strenuously disagreeing on that point with Don’t Breathe, it seems. A whopping 85% believe my prediction is Too Low with 11% saying Just About Right and just 4% saying Too High. Truth be told, horror movies are tough to predict (Lights Out opened considerably beyond my estimate just a month ago). My projection for Don’t Breathe takes into account the late August release and a similar comparison with You’re Next (another critically acclaimed genre title released in the same weekend three summers back). Still, it appears this might be the trendy pick to be #1 in the final summer frame.
As for Mechanic: Resurrection, it’s a pretty even split with 40% saying my forecast is Just About Right and 30% each believing it’s Too High and Too Low. With Hands of Stone, 44% each think I’m either Just About Right or Too Low with 12% saying Too High.
So what will be #1? It looks to me as if Suicide Squad has a real shot at a four-peat if none of the debuting pictures reach past $10M. When it comes to other holdovers in their second weekends, I expect Kubo and the Two Strings will have a smaller percentage drop-off than War Dogs while Sausage Party in weekend #3 may drop at about 50%. It should create an extremely close race between them.
As for Ben-Hur and its dismal weekend opening (more on that below), its drop may not be as massive as some may think (it did get an A- Cinemascore), but over 50% is quite probable. It may battle with Pete’s Dragon and Hands of Stone and Bad Moms for similar grosses.
Add all that activity up and I’ll predict a Top Ten for this final blowout (aka mild fade out) of summer ’16:
1. Don’t Breathe
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
2. Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Mechanic: Resurrection
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
4. Sausage Party
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
6. War Dogs
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)
7. Pete’s Dragon
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 42%)
8. Bad Moms
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 32%)
9. Ben-Hur
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jason Bourne
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (August 19-21)
Suicide Squad remained atop the charts for the third weekend in a row, grossing $20.8 million (slightly ahead of my $19.8M estimate) for a total of $262M. As mentioned above, the DC Comics pic has a nice shot at a fourth weekend at #1 (unless I’m wrong about Don’t Breathe… which many believe I am).
Sausage Party held in second place in weekend 2 with $15.4 million (I predicted a bit higher with $16.7M) for a pleasing 10 day total of $65M. Whether or not it reaches $100M is still in question, but this is a fine performance considering its $30M budget.
The Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs had the highest debut of the newbies with a respectable third place showing. It grossed $14.6 million, a bit above my $13.4M projection. I expect it lose almost half its audience in its sophomore frame as audiences didn’t seem too impressed with a B Cinemascore grade.
Kubo and the Two Strings garnered strong reviews, but had the weakest opening yet in fourth place for animation studio Laika with $12.6 million (under my generous $17M forecast). It could be that family audiences have simply had their fair share of pics to enjoy this season.
Speaking of underwhelming family entertainment, Disney’s Pete’s Dragon continued its unimpressive run with $11.3 million for fifth place (I predicted $12.3M). The total stands at $42M.
Now… to Ben-Hur. And, boy, is this an enormous flop for Paramount. The umpteenth remake (most notably of the 1959 Charlton Heston Best Picture winner) of the Biblical epic bombed with $11.2 million. I was kinder with a $16.3M prediction. With a reported $100 million budget, this stands as one of the largest flops of the year. Not even Morgan Freeman’s dreadlocks could save it.
Finally, outside of the top ten, the critically lauded Western thriller Hell or High Water expanded to 472 screens and had the highest per screen average of any film. It grossed $2.6 million and is expected to roll out even wider this weekend.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
***BLOGGER’S UPDATE (08/23/16): It was announced today by the Weinstein Company that they are significantly changing their release pattern for Hands of Stone. The film was originally scheduled to debut this Friday on approximately 2,000 screens. Now, it will premiere on only 800 screens with a wider roll-out on Wednesday (08/31). This forces a shift in my prediction for it. My $6.1 million estimate is now $3.2 million.
Centering on the relationship between real-life boxing legend Roberto Duran and his trainer Ray Arcel, Venezuelan filmmaker Jonathan Jakubowicz brings us Hands of Stone next weekend. Edgar Ramirez plays the fighter with Robert De Niro as his corner man. Costars include Usher (playing Sugar Ray Leonard), Ana de Armas, Ellen Barkin, Ruben Blades, and John Turturro.
The pic premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to a mixed reaction after sitting on the shelf for over two years (not a good sign). Movies about the sweet science have been prevalent this decade with hits like 2010’s The Fighter and last year’s Creed. They had the benefit of critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. There was last summer’s Southpaw with Jake Gyllenhaal, which managed to do just OK with a $52 million overall gross.
Hands of Stone arrives in the dog days of August, where new titles typically fight to reach double digits. The Weinstein Company is distributing and they’re rumored to be making a push for De Niro in the Supporting Actor Academy race. They will probably not be successful like Sylvester Stallone was for Creed. And this will likely not pack much of a punch in the box office ring.
Hands of Stone opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:
****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below.
Next weekend, the makers of the Evil Dead reboot are back with Don’t Breathe, a horror pic that is garnering early positive reviews. Fede Alvarez directs with Sam Raimi producing in this tale of some teenagers robbing a blind man’s home. That man (played by veteran character actor Stephen Lang) turns out to be quite a force to be reckoned with. Jane Levy and Dylan Minnette costar.
The film premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival this past spring to good notices. It currently stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s been a solid summer for horror – as The Conjuring 2 and Lights Out both performed well (especially the latter considering its tiny budget). Lights benefited from a simple concept and critical acclaim, yet I’m not sure that will be repeated here. The late August release date has not been kind to the genre over the past few years. Last summer’s Sinister 2 managed just $10.5 million and that was a sequel to a well-regarded predecessor. The best comparison might be 2013’s You’re Next, another well-reviewed title that only grossed $7 million for its start. I’ll say this manages to top that, but not by too much.
I’ll predict Don’t Breathe tops that meager figure, but not by much at all.
Don’t Breathe opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:
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