Horror fans get their first taste of the genre in 2017 as The Bye Bye Man hits theaters next weekend. The low-budget flick finds a group of college students tormented by the title character (Doug Jones). Costars include Douglas Smith, Cressida Bonas, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Faye Dunaway.
Made for just $6 million, Bye Bye is likely to turn a profit no matter what. Scary movies are notoriously tough to predict (they over perform more often than not), yet I’m not sure this will conjure up much business. It could perform similarly to last January’s The Boy, which opened to $10.8M. Bye Bye will have the four-day MLK weekend to try and reach double digits, but I’ll predict it falls just short of that (still managing to easily top its price tag out of the gate).
The Bye Bye Man opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.
One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.
Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.
The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.
Paramount Pictures may have an enormous flop on their hands when MonsterTrucks next weekend. And that’s not just me saying that, folks. The studio itself has reportedly taken a $115 million write down on the project due to its anticipated bad performance.
Made for an inexplicable $125 million, the 3D live-action/computer animated flick is hoping to appeal to young boys who may drag their parents simply based on its title. Chris Wedge, known for animated fare such as IceAge and Robots, directs. The cast includes Lucas Till, Jane Levy, Amy Ryan, Rob Lowe, Danny Glover, Barry Pepper, and lots of questionable looking CG based on the trailers. Trucks has been in the can for some time. It was originally scheduled to come out over a year and a half ago and then experienced multiple delays.
Coproduced by Nickelodeon Movies, the fact that a film of this budget has been relegated to a crowded January weekend tells you all you need to know. I believe Monster will just top double digits over the long MLK weekend and earn its expected status as a bomb.
MonsterTrucks opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
Based on a 2011 French feature, Sleepless will attempt to bring audiences in when it debuts next weekend. The action thriller stars Jamie Foxx as a crooked cop embroiled in a kidnapping case. Michelle Monaghan (pulling double duty over MLK weekend with Patriots Day as well), T.I., Dermot Mulroney, David Harbour, and Gabrielle Union costar.
The Open Roads Films product could face a tough road attracting attention. For starters, competition is fierce with the aforementioned Patriots and Ben Affleck’s Live by Night looking to lure similar viewers. If it weren’t for that level of competition, my estimate here would probably be higher. There’s little doubt Sleepless will come in third among them.
Just how far in third is the real question. I don’t believe trailers and TV spots have done much to indicate this is anything more than a wait for On Demand experience. Foxx has his fans, but I suspect that will not be enough for anything other than a low double digits roll out.
Sleepless opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
Live by Night marks Ben Affleck’s fourth time behind the camera in a directorial career that has been quite impressive thus far. The crime drama, in which he also stars, is his first effort since 2012’s Oscar winning Argo. Costars include Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Sienna Miller, Zoe Saldana, and Chris Cooper. Based on his filmography, Night was once seen as a potential awards contender around the Hollywood town. Yet since its critical screenings, that notion appears to be gone, baby, gone. The pic has not garnered praise by reviewers and it currently holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 35%.
Will that hurt its box office potency? My feeling is that it will. Like his directorial debut Gone Baby Gone (mentioned in the aforementioned bad pun), this is based on a novel by Dennis Lehane and comes with a reported $65 million budget. The chances of Night coming in below expectations could be due to more factors than mediocre reviews. It opens on a packed weekend where Patriots Day will going for a similar audience (as will Sleepless with Jamie Foxx). On the other hand, Affleck’s latest starring vehicle The Accountant exceeded expectations three months ago with an opening weekend of nearly $25 million.
So where will this land? I believe it’ll debut over the four-day MLK weekend with far less than Patriots Day (which I’ve got pegged at $23M) and in the low double digits to mid teens neighborhood.
Live by Night opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
Patriots Day, out next weekend, marks the third collaboration between Mark Wahlberg and director Peter Berg recounting real-life dramatic events. It arrives only four months after their second. In January 2014, the duo teamed up for Lone Survivor, the war tale which grossed over $37 million in its first weekend of wide release with an eventual $125M domestic haul. In September of last year, they followed up with Deepwater Horizon (recounting the BP Oil Spill). It debuted to a less impressive $20 million and overall $66M gross.
Their latest focuses on events surrounding the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Besides the aforementioned personnel, costars include John Goodman, J.K. Simmons, Michelle Monaghan, and Kevin Bacon. Patriots opened in limited release in December, likely in order to merit Oscar consideration (of which it’ll probably receive little). Still, reviews have been mostly strong at 78% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
So where will this fall numbers wise compared to Wahlberg and Berg’s previous efforts? I don’t believe it will match what Survivor accomplished but suspect it could eclipse Horizon. Debuting over the four-day MLK weekend, Day stands a very good chance at posting the highest opening of the six pictures coming out. That means I have it outpacing Ben Affleck’s Live by Night, which should serve as its most direct competition.
I’ll say it manages low to mid-20s out of the gate.
Patriots Day opening weekend prediction: $23.6 million
The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful HiddenFigures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: BloodWars, and sci-fi drama AMonsterCalls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:
Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of RogueOne and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.
As for BloodWars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.
LaLaLand is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likelyoutsideofthetopten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:
1. RogueOne: AStarWarsStory
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $25.3 million
3. HiddenFigures
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million
4. Underworld: BloodWars
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
6. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $9 million
7. Fences
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
8. Moana
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
9. WhyHim?
Predicted Gross: $6 million
10. Assassin’s Creed
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)
The four-day New Years weekend gave RogueOne its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.
Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.
Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.
Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.
Rounding out the top five was WhyHim? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.
In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.
Oscar favorite LaLaLand expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.
Eighth place: Assassin’sCreed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.
The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and ManchesterbytheSea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).
CollateralBeauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. OfficeChristmasParty was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.
When J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls debuted in September at the Toronto Film Festival, it did so to solid buzz and even some awards chatter. Much of that talk seems to have dissipated from nearly four months ago and the pic may struggle to find an audience when it opens wide next weekend.
Based on an acclaimed 2011 novel by Patrick Ness, Calls mixes science fiction elements with tearjerker family drama in this tale of a monstrous creature helping a young boy deal with his grief. Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Lewis MacDougall, and Liam Neeson (voicing the title character) star.
As mentioned, most reviews have been encouraging (it’s at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet I wonder what segment of the movie going public will turn out for this. The film was originally scheduled for an October stateside debut before being pushed back. Sci-fi genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately and Underworld: Blood Wars opens against it. A female crowd that might get drawn in by the family drama angle could be put off with the mystical elements. The early January release date doesn’t inspire much hope that Focus Features has tremendous confidence in it.
Festival word-of-mouth aside, I’ll predict A Monster Calls struggles to reach a mid single digits reception. At least director Bayona can take comfort that his next feature, 2018’s Jurassic World sequel, will likely gross at least 50 times what this might in its opening weekend.
A Monster Calls opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:
An Oscar hopeful expands to wide release next Friday when Hidden Figures rolls out across the country. The true tale of three women (Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae) who were instrumental in the NASA space program in the 1960s has garnered critical praise (92% on Rotten Tomatoes) and is said to be quite the crowd pleaser. Theodore Melfi directs with Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons, and Mahershala Ali in the supporting cast.
Over the Christmas weekend, Figures figured an impressive $838,000 gross on just 25 screens. That’s a strong $33K per screen average. The pic stands a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination come Oscar announcement time and Octavia Spencer could also receive a Supporting Actress nod.
As I see it, the chances for this to over perform are mathematically greater than the alternative. 20th Century Fox is hoping to attract a sizable female and African American audience and they’ll likely be successful. I believe Figures could even outdo Underworld: Blood Wars, which opens the same day. I’ve got that one pegged at $17.6M. I’ll put this one over it for what would be a #2 debut.
Hidden Figures opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million
For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:
It’s the fifth film in a franchise that began over 13 years ago and Underworld: Blood Wars also has the distinction of being the first new wide release of 2017. Kate Beckinsale returns in the role of Selene in this latest chapter of these vampire diaries with Theo James, Tobias Menzies, and Charles Dance among the supporting cast.
Reviews haven’t been strong and it currently stands at just 11% on Rotten Tomatoes. Not that it really matters. The 2003 original posted a franchise best 31% on the aggregator site and yet every entry in the series has debuted to over $20 million. Let’s take a trip down Underworld premiere lane, shall we?
Underworld (2003) – $21.7 million
Underworld: Evolution (2006) – $26.8 million
Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (2009) – $20.8 million
Underworld Awakening (2012) – $25.3 million
Note that all the previous flicks opened within three years of one another and that there’s been a five-year gap for Blood Wars. That delay may not bode well for it continuing the plus $20M streak alive. While the franchise clearly has a following, I’ll predict the lay-off gives Underworld #5 a mid to high teens debut for a series low.
Underworld: Blood Wars opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
