The first weekend of December is typically a very light frame for new product and 2016 is no different as horror flick Incarnate is the only new offering. From Blumhouse Tilt (a studio that makes their pics cheap and fast), the exorcism tale stars Aaron Eckhart. It’s been a busy year for the lead actor, as he’s already appeared in supporting roles this fall with hit Sully and flop BleedforThis. Brad Peyton (who made last summer’s SanAndreas) is behind the camera and costars include Carice van Houtem and Catalina Sandino Moreno.
Despite a release in European territories last summer, Incarnate has sat on the shelf waiting for U.S. distribution. That’s usually not a sign of confidence from the studio and neither is its dumping ground release date. This should follow the pattern of many other first weekend of December premieres and post extremely low numbers.
Incarnate opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
It’s Turkey Day weekend at the 2016 box office and there’s four new titles debuting in wide release: Disney’s latest animated creation Moana, Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard WWII thriller Allied, raunchy sequel Bad Santa 2, and Warren Beatty’s long in the making Rules Don’t Apply. You can stuff yourself on my individual prediction posts on them here:
All 4 releases debut Wednesday to capitalize on the holiday weekend, so my estimates reflect both a three-day and five-day forecast on them.
Moana should rather easily debut on top, especially with the less than expected returns of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over this past weekend (more on that below).
I’m slating Allied for a third place showing, but if it comes in with less than my estimate, it could battle both Doctor Strange and Trolls for the 3-5 spots. It’s worth noting that holdovers on Thanksgiving weekend typically experience smaller than usual declines. While I’ve got Beasts losing over half its audience in its sophomore frame, I have Strange, Trolls, and Arrival losing crowd shares in the low-high 20s percentile range.
That means I’ve got Bad Santa 2 premiering at #7 with Rules Don’t Apply in ninth place between Hacksaw Ridge and Almost Christmas.
Here’s how the blog readers view my predictions on the newbies:
Moana – 55% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 7% Too High
Allied – 52% Just About Right, 30% Too Low, 18% Too High
Bad Santa 2 – 58% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 11% Too High
Rules Don’t Apply – 64% Just About Right, 18% Too High, 18% Too Low
Any way you look at it… this will be one fascinating weekend to watch and here’s how my top ten looks:
1. Moana
Predicted Gross: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $34.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. Allied
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
4. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 21%)
5. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 27%)
6. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 29%)
7. Bad Santa 2
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
8. Hacksaw Ridge
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 23%)
9. Rules Don’t Apply
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. Almost Christmas
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (November 18-20)
It was a weekend where all four new releases came in below expectations… some far more drastically than others.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned $74.4 million to begin a planned five film franchise. This number is on the lower end of expectations and under my $83.1M projection. This is certainly no disaster for Warner Bros, but a gross closer to $90M was probably their hope. That said, expect the J.K. Rowling series to keep rolling.
Doctor Strange fell to second with $17.7 million (below my $21.5M estimate) for a three-week tally of $181M.
Trolls was third with $17.4 million (I was a bit higher with $19.7M) for a gross of $116M thus far.
In its second weekend, Arrival was fourth with $12.1 million, a bit under my $13.6M estimate for a $43M total.
I incorrectly had Almost Christmas outside the top five, but it was fifth with $7.2 million for a $25M overall gross.
And… then there’s the other fresh product that came over the weekend. Audiences weren’t interested. Despite critical acclaim, the coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen sputtered with $4.7 million in seventh place, less than half of my $10.9M prediction.
The news was worse for boxing drama Bleed for This, KO’d in 8th place with just $2.3 million (less than half my $5.8M prognosis).
Which brings us to Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Ugh. I somehow estimated it would make $9.2 million. Yet its lukewarm critical reaction and tampered down buzz (it was once thought of to be a potential awards factor) absolutely destroyed it. Walk was DOA in 14th place with an atrocious $901,000. So… oops!
And there you have it, my friends! Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! Until next time…
There’s directors and actors who take time between projects and then there’s those that really do. Warren Beatty belongs in that category and Rules Don’t Apply (out Thanksgiving weekend) marks his first turn behind the camera in 18 years and first time in front of the camera in over 15 years.
The legendary star is notoriously slow-paced when it comes to perfecting his works and Apply was actually wrapped for the most part about two and a half years ago. The old school Hollywood tale set in the 1950s casts Beatty as famed reclusive billionaire Howard Hughes with a romantic plot between costars Lily Collins and Alden Ehrenreich (soon to be the next Han Solo in that Star Wars spin-off). The supporting cast is filled with familiar faces that include Warren’s wife Annette Bening, Matthew Broderick, Alec Baldwin, Ed Harris, Oliver Platt, Haley Bennett, Candice Bergen, Steve Coogan, and Dabney Coleman.
As mentioned, the last pic Beatty directed was 1998’s Bulworth, which made $26 million. His last appearance in any film was 2001’s Town & Country, which faltered with just $6.7 million. Reviews have been mixed and it sits at 62% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Rules Don’t Apply could face a tough time breaking out in any way. The critical notices have taken it out of the running as a true Oscar contender. Adult moviegoers may be preoccupied with Allied, which opens against it. That leads me to a belief that this could only manage mid single digits for both the three-day and five-day weekend.
Rules Don’t Apply opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Thirteen years after its predecessor opened over the Turkey Day weekend, Billy Bob Thornton’s booze fueled holiday cheer returns in Bad Santa 2. The original has hit cult status, but it’s worth noting that it did quite well in its initial theatrical run. In 2003, it debuted to $12.2 million over the Friday to Sunday holiday frame and $16.8 million counting its Wednesday and Thursday grosses. It eventually earned $60M domestic.
Mark Waters (maker of hits like Freaky Friday and Mean Girls) takes over directorial duties from Terry Zwigoff. Thornton is back in the title role alongside returnees Tony Cox and Brett Kelly, in addition to Kathy Bates and Christina Hendricks.
2016 has seen a consistent pattern of long gestating sequels not matching the grosses of the first. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bad Santa 2 followed the same trajectory. Reviews so far have been mixed to negative. I’ll predict this doesn’t match what we saw 13 years ago and struggles to top low to mid double digits for its five-day.
Bad Santa 2 opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard join forces in the World War II set romantic thriller Allied, out next week over the Thanksgiving frame. Robert Zemeckis, who’s made plenty of hits but misfired with last year’s The Walk, handles directorial responsibilities and the supporting cast includes Lizzy Caplan, Jared Harris, and Matthew Goode.
Paramount Pictures is hoping that adult crowds will turn out over the holiday weekend. It must be noted that Mr. Pitt has obviously been the subject of much press over the last few months due to his separation from Angelina Jolie. How that plays into box office dollars is an unknown. The star’s filmography is not short of WWII era titles, as he headlined both Inglourious Basterds and Fury (which made $120M and $85M, respectively).
Whether Allied gets to that level could be a question mark, but solid reviews would certainly help (there’s none at press time). I’ll say this debuts to mid teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with low 20s a realistic estimate for the five-day gross. That could eventually get it to Fury level, though Basterds numbers would be a reach.
Allied opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Disney’s back at it again over Thanksgiving weekend as their animated adventure Moana hits screens. The musical fantasy comes from directors John Musker and Ron Clements, the duo responsible for now classics The Little Mermaid and Aladdin. Lin-Manuel Miranda (who started a little Broadway show called Hamilton) co-writes songs and voice over work is provided by Auli’i Cravalho (as the title character) and Dwayne Johnson.
Reviews for the pic have been quite solid so far – it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and Moana looks to continue what has been a record-breaking year for the Mouse Factory. It was over Turkey Day in 2015 that the studio experienced a rare animated misfire when The Good Dinosaur debuted to a middling $39 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $55 million for the five-day frame.
With stronger critical notices and Disney on a hot streak, Moana looks poised to improve upon that performance rather significantly. I’ll peg this at mid 50s and mid to high 70s for the respective 3 and 5 day grosses.
Moana opening weekend prediction: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
It’s another busy weekend at the box office as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to dominate the charts with three other newbies debuting. They are: coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen, Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and boxing biopic Bleed for This. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As mentioned, the newest adaptation from a J.K. Rowling work should easily place first (just like the Potter pics) and I’ve got it pegged for a mid 80s premiere (if it went higher, that wouldn’t shock me).
Holdover blockbusters Doctor Strange and Trolls should drop to second and third with Arrival possibly battling it out with newcomers Seventeen and Walk for the 4-6 positions. As for Bleed, it should be outside the top 6 and I’ve got it pegged at just $5.8M (though it could be a potential sleeper).
As for where the blog readers stand on my predictions for the newbies:
Fantastic Beasts: 60% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 9% Too High
The Edge of Seventeen: 44% Just About Right, 39% Too Low, 17% Too High
Billy Lynn: 47% Too High, 37% Just About Right, 16% Too Low
Bleed for This: 57% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 7% Too High
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $83.1 million
2. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. The Edge of Seventeen
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
Box Office Results (November 11-13)
In a robust weekend, holdovers held over very well and some newcomers had solid results (with one exception).
Marvel’s Doctor Strange retained the #1 spot in its sophomore frame with a $42.9 million gross (ahead of my $37.5M projection) to bring its ten-day total to $152M.
The news was also great in weekend #2 for Dreamworks animated Trolls as it grossed $34.9 million in second (more than my $26.8M estimate) for a hair raising $93M total.
Critically acclaimed sci-fi drama Arrival had a fine third place showing – arriving with $24 million (just above my $22.4M prediction). While audiences were a bit more mixed than reviewers, it could settle in for fairly small drops in future weekends and manage to top $100M.
Fourth place saw Almost Christmas deliver a pleasing $15.1 million (though not matching my $18.3M forecast).
Rounding out the top five was Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, holding nicely in its second weekend with $10.6 million (I said $8.9M). The lauded WWII drama has taken in $32M thus far.
The dud of the weekend was the Naomi Watts horror thriller Shut In, which managed just $3.5 million for 8th place. I predicted a bit higher with $5.7M.
We’ve seen a number of films about the sweet science over the past few years and another one hits theaters next weekend as BleedforThis debuts. The true story tells the tale of pugilist Vinny Pazienza (Miles Teller), who looks to return to the ring after a debilitating accident. Ben Younger, who directed 2000’s well-regarded BoilerRoom, followed it up with the less regarded Uma Thurman/Meryl Streep rom com Prime, and hadn’t made a movie since – is behind the camera. Costars include Aaron Eckhart, Ciaran Hinds, Katey Sagal, and Ted Levine.
Bleed debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in September to generally positive reaction. It’s at 77% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The boxing genre has seen some successes this decade with titles such as TheFighter and Creed. On the other hand, Southpaw and especially August’s HandsofStone struggled.
This one could face an uphill battle. Luckily for its studio, it comes with a light $6 million budget so a knockout gross isn’t really required. I anticipate a middle single digits start.
Bleed for This opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem prediction, click here:
Hailee Steinfeld first broke onto the film scene as a young teen in the Coen Brothers hit Western remake TrueGrit. The result? An Oscar nomination for Supporting Actress. Since then, she’s made a few screen appearances and also become a platinum selling musician.
Next weekend, she’s said to have yet another breakout role headlining TheEdgeofSeventeen, a coming of age comedic drama. The pic debuted to highly positive reviews at the Toronto Film Festival and is at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kelly Fremon Craig directs and costars include Haley Lu Richardson, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson, and Kyra Sedgwick.
How it will fare at the multiplexes? Perhaps solid buzz could keep it going well in subsequent weekends, but I’m not anticipating anything above a low teens opening as the higher bar. For one thing, this is going for a teen audience who may well be preoccupied with FantasticBeastsandWhereToFindThem.
I’ll predict Seventeen hits low double digits for its start.
TheEdgeofSeventeen opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million
For my FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem prediction, click here:
Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk makes its way to theaters next weekend in wide release and expectations for it have been tampered down a bit. The film, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, had been looked at as a major awards contender for the bulk of 2016. After all, Lee has won the Best Director prize at the Oscars twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and it just looked the kind of picture that the Academy might take a liking to. Newcomer Joe Alwyn stars in the title role alongside a stellar supporting cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin.
Walk has also received significant publicity to the manner in which it was shot at 120 frames per second (translate that to very high definition). Yet something unexpected happened when this screened at the New York Film Festival nearly a month ago. Critics were sharply divided as to both its dramatic and visual quality. In fact, it stands at just 50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Any chances of it being an Oscar force pretty much fell along the wayside.
So where does that leave its box office prospects? Quite simply, shakier than before the buzz unfolded. If this had the aura of an Academy hopeful, it could certainly boost its grosses. Then there’s even the matter of another more critically lauded war drama having opened just two weeks prior – Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge.
The film is reportedly rolling out on a low 800 screens which would limits its prospects. Add all that up and I believe Halftime will see a debut below $10 million for just a so-so start.
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
For my Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them prediction, click here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 