Sporting a lowly 29% Rotten Tomatoes ranking prior to its October 11 release, Ang Lee’s GeminiMan is certainly no candidate for Best Picture recognition like the director’s previous works CrouchingTiger, HiddenDragon, BrokebackMountain, and LifeofPi. The sci fi action thriller casts Will Smith in an effects heavy experience where the actor plays an aging hitman who must battle a younger version of himself.
While it’s no surprise that the pic won’t contend for top line prizes, Gemini has always been eyed as a possibility for Visual Effects. The 3D high frame per second look is one employed by Lee in his last film BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk. That drama was seen as awards bait before poor reviews sunk its viability.
Visual Effects nowadays is a race where there’s usually no shortage of contenders. In 2019, we have the upcoming StarWars: TheRiseofSkywalker in addition to TheIrishman, TheLionKing, Avengers: Endgame, and Smith’s own summer blockbuster Aladdin. I believe Gemini could still sneak in the category, but its own negative critical reaction might derail it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s Turkey Day weekend at the 2016 box office and there’s four new titles debuting in wide release: Disney’s latest animated creation Moana, Brad Pitt/Marion Cotillard WWII thriller Allied, raunchy sequel Bad Santa 2, and Warren Beatty’s long in the making Rules Don’t Apply. You can stuff yourself on my individual prediction posts on them here:
All 4 releases debut Wednesday to capitalize on the holiday weekend, so my estimates reflect both a three-day and five-day forecast on them.
Moana should rather easily debut on top, especially with the less than expected returns of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over this past weekend (more on that below).
I’m slating Allied for a third place showing, but if it comes in with less than my estimate, it could battle both Doctor Strange and Trolls for the 3-5 spots. It’s worth noting that holdovers on Thanksgiving weekend typically experience smaller than usual declines. While I’ve got Beasts losing over half its audience in its sophomore frame, I have Strange, Trolls, and Arrival losing crowd shares in the low-high 20s percentile range.
That means I’ve got Bad Santa 2 premiering at #7 with Rules Don’t Apply in ninth place between Hacksaw Ridge and Almost Christmas.
Here’s how the blog readers view my predictions on the newbies:
Moana – 55% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 7% Too High
Allied – 52% Just About Right, 30% Too Low, 18% Too High
Bad Santa 2 – 58% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 11% Too High
Rules Don’t Apply – 64% Just About Right, 18% Too High, 18% Too Low
Any way you look at it… this will be one fascinating weekend to watch and here’s how my top ten looks:
1. Moana
Predicted Gross: $56.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $77.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $34.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. Allied
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $21.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
4. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 21%)
5. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 27%)
6. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 29%)
7. Bad Santa 2
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
8. Hacksaw Ridge
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 23%)
9. Rules Don’t Apply
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. Almost Christmas
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (November 18-20)
It was a weekend where all four new releases came in below expectations… some far more drastically than others.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned $74.4 million to begin a planned five film franchise. This number is on the lower end of expectations and under my $83.1M projection. This is certainly no disaster for Warner Bros, but a gross closer to $90M was probably their hope. That said, expect the J.K. Rowling series to keep rolling.
Doctor Strange fell to second with $17.7 million (below my $21.5M estimate) for a three-week tally of $181M.
Trolls was third with $17.4 million (I was a bit higher with $19.7M) for a gross of $116M thus far.
In its second weekend, Arrival was fourth with $12.1 million, a bit under my $13.6M estimate for a $43M total.
I incorrectly had Almost Christmas outside the top five, but it was fifth with $7.2 million for a $25M overall gross.
And… then there’s the other fresh product that came over the weekend. Audiences weren’t interested. Despite critical acclaim, the coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen sputtered with $4.7 million in seventh place, less than half of my $10.9M prediction.
The news was worse for boxing drama Bleed for This, KO’d in 8th place with just $2.3 million (less than half my $5.8M prognosis).
Which brings us to Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Ugh. I somehow estimated it would make $9.2 million. Yet its lukewarm critical reaction and tampered down buzz (it was once thought of to be a potential awards factor) absolutely destroyed it. Walk was DOA in 14th place with an atrocious $901,000. So… oops!
And there you have it, my friends! Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving! Until next time…
Blogger’s Update (11/21): Final box office numbers for the film put it at just a $901,000 opening, adding more insult to injury.
When I began writing my Oscar Watch posts several weeks ago, the general consensus was this: Damien Chazelle’s LaLaLand (based on its festival screenings) was the front runner for Best Picture. It still is. Furthermore, there was a trio of unseen contenders to upset that notion: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk.
Silence has still yet to land any eyeballs on it and remains a mystery. Fences has held industry screenings and established itself as a player in Picture and several other races. Yet for Billy, the narrative has gone in a significantly different direction.
The war drama, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, looked to be a serious awards force on paper. After all, Lee has won the Best Director statue twice for 2005’s BrokebackMountain and 2012’s LifeofPi. Both of those films were nominated for the grand prize but came up short. Two of his other efforts – 1995’s SenseandSensibility and 2000’s CrouchingTiger, HiddenDragon also nabbed Pic nods. Walk features an eclectic cast surrounding unknown Joe Alwyn in the title role that includes Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund.
And it was being touted as a potential visual marvel as Lee and his effects crew were shooting it at 120 frames per second (think super duper HD). Then something happened on the march to Academy glory… people actually saw it.
The result? Many critics were not kind to it (it’s at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes). Following its first festival exposure in New York, the Oscar fortunes took a tumble. Yet even after that, I still managed to keep it in my top 20 possibilities for a Picture nomination until yesterday. Why? On the chance that audiences would respond positively enough to it to keep it viable.
Well… that viability just took a nose dive this afternoon. Walk opened wide today and forecasts for the weekend have it grossing just $2-$3 million dollars. Let me translate: it’s bombing very, very badly.
One month ago, before anyone had seen it, Billy Lynn looked like it could receive multiple nominations come Oscar time. As of today, the highest likelihood is that it will walk away with zero.
Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.
On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.
Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.
A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.
And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Sully (PR: 16)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)
18. Allied (PR: 20)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
It’s another busy weekend at the box office as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them looks to dominate the charts with three other newbies debuting. They are: coming of age dramedy The Edge of Seventeen, Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and boxing biopic Bleed for This. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As mentioned, the newest adaptation from a J.K. Rowling work should easily place first (just like the Potter pics) and I’ve got it pegged for a mid 80s premiere (if it went higher, that wouldn’t shock me).
Holdover blockbusters Doctor Strange and Trolls should drop to second and third with Arrival possibly battling it out with newcomers Seventeen and Walk for the 4-6 positions. As for Bleed, it should be outside the top 6 and I’ve got it pegged at just $5.8M (though it could be a potential sleeper).
As for where the blog readers stand on my predictions for the newbies:
Fantastic Beasts: 60% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 9% Too High
The Edge of Seventeen: 44% Just About Right, 39% Too Low, 17% Too High
Billy Lynn: 47% Too High, 37% Just About Right, 16% Too Low
Bleed for This: 57% Too Low, 36% Just About Right, 7% Too High
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Predicted Gross: $83.1 million
2. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. The Edge of Seventeen
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
Box Office Results (November 11-13)
In a robust weekend, holdovers held over very well and some newcomers had solid results (with one exception).
Marvel’s Doctor Strange retained the #1 spot in its sophomore frame with a $42.9 million gross (ahead of my $37.5M projection) to bring its ten-day total to $152M.
The news was also great in weekend #2 for Dreamworks animated Trolls as it grossed $34.9 million in second (more than my $26.8M estimate) for a hair raising $93M total.
Critically acclaimed sci-fi drama Arrival had a fine third place showing – arriving with $24 million (just above my $22.4M prediction). While audiences were a bit more mixed than reviewers, it could settle in for fairly small drops in future weekends and manage to top $100M.
Fourth place saw Almost Christmas deliver a pleasing $15.1 million (though not matching my $18.3M forecast).
Rounding out the top five was Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, holding nicely in its second weekend with $10.6 million (I said $8.9M). The lauded WWII drama has taken in $32M thus far.
The dud of the weekend was the Naomi Watts horror thriller Shut In, which managed just $3.5 million for 8th place. I predicted a bit higher with $5.7M.
Hey all – it’s Thursday and that means time to update Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since last Thursday, Denzel Washington’s eagerly awaited Fences held its first industry screenings and solidified itself as a major player this awards season. Beyond that, we’re still in a holding pattern with various titles yet to unveil themselves. That will change soon with such titles as Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, and Allied… so stay tuned as those pictures reveal themselves to be true contenders or not.
And with that, the November 10th rankings!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. Sully (PR: 16)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 18)
20. Allied (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
8. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 9)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
10. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk makes its way to theaters next weekend in wide release and expectations for it have been tampered down a bit. The film, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, had been looked at as a major awards contender for the bulk of 2016. After all, Lee has won the Best Director prize at the Oscars twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and it just looked the kind of picture that the Academy might take a liking to. Newcomer Joe Alwyn stars in the title role alongside a stellar supporting cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin.
Walk has also received significant publicity to the manner in which it was shot at 120 frames per second (translate that to very high definition). Yet something unexpected happened when this screened at the New York Film Festival nearly a month ago. Critics were sharply divided as to both its dramatic and visual quality. In fact, it stands at just 50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Any chances of it being an Oscar force pretty much fell along the wayside.
So where does that leave its box office prospects? Quite simply, shakier than before the buzz unfolded. If this had the aura of an Academy hopeful, it could certainly boost its grosses. Then there’s even the matter of another more critically lauded war drama having opened just two weeks prior – Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge.
The film is reportedly rolling out on a low 800 screens which would limits its prospects. Add all that up and I believe Halftime will see a debut below $10 million for just a so-so start.
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
For my Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them prediction, click here:
Well – we’ve reached November, loyal blog readers and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m paring down the list of Oscar hopefuls in the eight major categories. Over the past two months, I’ve listed 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the Directing, Acting, and Screenplay races. Today, it gets whittled down to 20 in BP and 10 in the others. One development of note this week: it appears Dev Patel will be competing in Supporting Actor for Lion instead of Lead. That enters him in the derby for that race, which looks more unpredictable than any other at this moment.
There are still a number of Oscar hopefuls left to screen: Silence, Fences, Live by Night, Rules Don’t Apply, Passengers, The Founder, Hidden Figures, Miss Sloane, Gold among them. In other words, look for shifts in placement as these movies start receiving reviews and buzz in the near future.
Here’s how I have the respective competitions shaping up in this early November period:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Live by Night (PR: 15)
15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 24)
16. Sully (PR: 14)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 16)
19. Allied (PR: 20)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals, Miss Sloane, Passengers, Gold, 13th
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
4. Kenneth Longergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mike Mills (20th Century Women), Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 13)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Dev Patel (Lion – moved to Supporting), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Rachel Weisz (Denial), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: Not Ranked; considered to be Lead)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
10. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Sunny Pawar (Lion), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Timothy Spall (Denial), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women), Janelle Monae (Moonlight), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane), Laura Linney (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 3)
2. La La Land (PR: 1)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Loving (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8. The Lobster (PR: 9)
9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Toni Erdmann, Allied, Rules Don’t Apply, Gold, Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
8. Live by Night (PR: 8)
9. Love & Friendship (PR: 7)
10. Certain Women (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sully, Elle, Indignation, The Jungle Book, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
And that shall do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Thursday has arrived and that means a fresh round of Oscar predictions in the 8 biggest categories! The major development this week? The announcement that Viola Davis will compete in Supporting Actress for Fences instead of lead. I’ve had Davis firmly at #3 for weeks on my Best Actress board, but this news puts her at #1 in the supporting race. I’m also growing more confident that both Moonlight (which had a scorching debut in limited release) and Loving will make it into Best Picture and they both rise up in this week’s rankings.
Please note – this will be the final week of predicting 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 predictions in the other races. Starting next week as November arrives, it’ll be whittled down to 20 in Picture and 10 in the others.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Jackie (PR: 5)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 10)
9. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 18)
14. Sully (PR: 14)
15. Live by Night (PR: 13)
16. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 15)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
19. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
20. Allied (PR: 21)
21. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Passengers (PR: 24)
23. Gold (PR: 22)
24. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 23)
25. 13th (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 10)
13. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 12)
15. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ana DuVernay, 13th
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 10)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 14)
13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 9)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
12. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
14. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Fences (competing in Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 7)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: Not Ranked, listed in Lead Actress)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
After a decade away from behind the camera, Hacksaw Ridge marks Mel Gibson’s directorial return. The World War II true-life tale casts Andrew Garfield as a conscientious objector who nevertheless ended up being awarded the Medal of Honor for his heroic exploits on the battlefield. Costars include Vince Vaughn, Sam Worthington, Luke Bracey, Hugo Weaving, Teresa Palmer, and Rachel Griffiths.
The reported $45 million production debuted at Venice Film Festival in September to very positive word of mouth. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 94% and it seems to be gaining some traction as a potential awards contender. Ridge is the first war drama of November, but will be followed up quickly just a week later with Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.
Gibson, of course, is an Oscar winner for his direction of 1995’s Braveheart and struck box office gold in 2004 with his follow-up, The Passion of the Christ. 2006’s Apocalypto was his last job as director and it grossed $50M domestic. The last decade has been an interesting one for Mr. Gibson – notable more for tabloid fodder than anything on the silver screen. His acting jobs have ranged from supporting roles in Machete Kills and The Expendables 3 to direct to On Demand action flicks like Get the Gringo and Blood Father.
It’s a legitimate question whether or not his name adds anything here. None of its stars carry much box office potency either (though Garfield will also soon headline this fall’s eagerly awaited Martin Scorsese drama Silence). What might help is the encouraging critical buzz swirling around it. I don’t expect an opening above $15 million, yet this could be a slow burner that experiences small declines in subsequent weekends. I’ll predict the most likely scenario is a low double digits opening and potential for growth as the season wears on.
Hacksaw Ridge opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million
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